Skip to comments.Where to now for Cainís supporters? (Who do they donate to after the storm?)
Posted on 12/05/2011 7:23:06 AM PST by SeekAndFind
When one loses a beloved pet, it’s generally considered very poor form to ask them about getting a replacement until a sufficient amount of time has passed for grieving and healing. But no such rules apply in the fast paced world of presidential politics, particularly when the calendar shrinks down to barely 30 days before the voting begins in Iowa. So, with the departure from the stage of Herman Cain, awkward though it may be, it’s time to ask the inevitable question. Where do his remaining supporters turn next? An editorial in the New York Daily News offers a few thoughts.
With the announcement that Herman Cain will suspend his campaign, effectively ending his bid for President, the other candidates have likely set their sights squarely on the votes he leaves up for grabs.
While Mitt Romney would benefit most from picking up Cains Tea Party supporters, its unlikely theyll flock to the front-runner. Many conservatives see him as an establishment candidate who doesnt understand real America.
Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, has adeptly marketed himself somewhat inexplicably, considering his long career in Washington politics as an outsider. He could gobble up Cains votes and gain considerably from his exit.
That strikes me as a rather shallow analysis which takes the fastest and easiest path to the exit. First, it’s important to note that we’re not talking about a huge base of support any more, but it’s still significant. The fact is – just taking Iowa as one example – much of Cain’s army had already broken ranks before Saturday’s announcement, primarily to the benefit of Newt Gingrich. He leads there with 25%, while Cain had already sunk down to single digits after leading during the previous month. But that single digit is still sizable at 8%. The untold story is that Ron Paul has moved into second, with 18. Imagine a hypothetical world where Cain’s remaining voters all shifted to the Texas congressman. (Note that I’m not even suggesting this is possible. This is a math problem.) That would put Paul in a statistical tie with Newt.
More in the realm of reality, if they all marched back to Rick Perry’s camp he would be back in double digits and showing the kind of sudden momentum the media love to trumpet. Other possibilities exist. So where Cain’s hard core fans migrate is still an important question.
Clearly it’s still too soon for some of the truly enamored to think about it, though. During the Huckabee Forum last night I displayed the poor taste to comment on Twitter that, were Romney to become the eventual nominee, I’d still support him, albeit unenthusiastically. Even though I hadn’t even invoked Cain’s name, one of his die-hard fans immediately shot back with a blunt attack.
my husband and i are either writing in @THEHermanCain or voting 4 him on our ballot. The campaign is only SUSPENDED
Fair enough. But the time is coming when reality will have to sink in and choices will need to be made. Is the NY Post editorial correct that Newt is pretty much the only game in town? Not from what I’m seeing. In one of the most unenthusiastic endorsements I’ve seen in quite some time, Da Tech Guy sighed, “Well, I guess it’s Santorum.”
In my Twitter stream, during the same time period, I saw a number of people talking about a “second look” at Rick Perry. I even noted a few Bachmann fans bubbling back to the surface.
And why not? For those final 8% who stuck with Cain to the bitter end, why wouldn’t they be taking a look at someone like Santorum or Rick Perry Two Point Oh? If they were attracted to Cain, clearly they were looking for the consummate Washington outsider. If that’s one of your defining criteria, is the first port in a storm you look for really… Newt? For all his positive qualities and abilities, “beltway outsider” isn’t’ exactly the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Gingrich.
There’s another debate coming next Saturday, but it’s a horrible media slot and I’m not sure how many of even the most dedicated voters will be watching. We’re entering that political media dead zone where people tend to focus more on family, shopping, trimming the tree and waxing their skates. One week to ten days worth of additional polling should tell us where the remaining Cain supporters land, and it will be instructive to say the least.
The ones who have been badmouthing Newt are going to feel real stupid!!!
If Cain was getting serious money this last month or two it HAD to be coming from the DNC. Because his presence in the Republican race was ONLY of benefit to the Demoviks.
So maybe the DNC can double down on Ron Paul at this point.
Latest poll out today shows Gingrich picking up nearly all of Cains support.
>> The ones who have been badmouthing Newt are going to feel real stupid!!!>>
And it is just me, or have many of those been absent here on FR the last 72 hours. Just a coincidence I’m sure. /s (ahem MNJohnnie?)
As for me, I always liked Cain, Newt and Perry for the most part - yet never drank the kool aid of any of them. But frankly, I prefer to debate ideas than people anyway. Keeps the emotion out of it -— and makes reality so much easier to handle when you are well aware of it from the beginning.
Why should I feel stupid for actually standing for my principles?
Why? The man's a self-serving liar, an all-around creep, and a weasly RINO, and under NO circumstances will I vote for him. Period.
No, I don't. There are some very real negatives to Newt.
‘Tea Party’ nominees for House and Senate!
Why feel bad? The campaign to kill off Cain in favor of a media/GOP elite pick is now a step closer to victory. Newt is better than obama and is light-years ahead of Romney or Perry but he still has only a narrow sideways chance in hell of beating obama. The democrat and GOP forces will now start trotting out the bimbo eruptions and charges to bring down newt and bring their candidate-select one step closer to a doomed nomination and campaign. I hope it works out and I’ll vote for him, but I don’t hold out much hope. I’d still go with Cain if he brings his campaign out of suspension. McLame suspended his campaign and he still ended up with the nomination, but then again he was the media/GOP chosen candidate.
Yep his answer about the Pelosi photo during the Huckabee forum the other night was very telling.
He said Pelosi was radioactive and took away from the message (Which was global warming is real and we have to stop it) He then went on to say that he would eliminate the EPA and replace it with an Environmental Solutions Agency.
I find it hard to believe Bachmann and Santorum don’t benefit from Cain’s departure.
The new Gingrich supporters are probably thinking the same thing I am. He’s the only way to keep mitt out of the white house.
If polls are one thing, they are accurate.
I’ll be keeping my money, TexasFreeper2009.
I’m keeping it for The Fall, and there is no point in spending one more cent on the farce of a race.
Meanwhile, I’ll be waiting for the polling company to call me...
To Jazz, who ever that is, a black man equals a pet. Mr david dukes pal I guess.
It’s funny ... I used to never get polled when I lived in the subburbs... but once I moved downtown I get polled quite often.
Seeing as how he only SUSPENDED his campaign most of them are going nowhere. He is still on the ballot in key states and most Cain supporters I have talked to still plan to vote for him as long as he doesn’t endorse Gingrich.
As for where will his supporters go if he is out completely? From what I have heard, they will go 10 different directions.
Some will split between Romney, Gingrich, Perry, Santorum, Bachmann, even Paul and Huntsman. Some will stay home. Some will go independent. Some will go back to voting democrat, which is sad (they tipped their toe into the GOP and many of you confirmed their worst fears about the GOP).
Cain had the biggest base of any candidate and the best chance of beating Obama.
You know I got polled twice when I lived in New Orleans.
Now that I’m here in rural Florida...nada in almost 6 years.
Gingrich was the only one on stage being nice to everyone, and thus has reaped the benefit.
I'm sorry, anyone who wants 4 more years of Obama further destroying this country is just plain crazy.
The best scenario I can see is Obama out, some less than perfect Repub president and a more conservative Senate/House dictating the agenda for that 4 years.
You seriously would rather have Obama versus ANYONE else? Seriously?
Well, since I didn’t support him before I’ll just say bye bye!
While I really do admire Newt’s intelligence and wit, all I can say about Newt and Cain as a pair is heaven help us.
Cain shows some real audacity and ego to think his endorsement actually means anything to the millions of voters who watched his train wreck. Guess he just can’t stay away from the cameras.
Then I’ll be an idiot of the first water. I won’t vote for Willard, the salamander, or any of the current GOP nominees for President.
As for “badmouthing Newt”, Gingrich brings more baggage than a C-5 Starlifter. His own caucus rebelled against him. When they had the government shutdown fight with Clinton, Newt blinked first. He has intelligence, but little focus, and no self-control or discipline. And if his sordid personal life is any guage, he has no honor. He lacks courage. Being a lobbyist is sleazy, but not illegal. Yet he refuses to admit that’s what he did for Freddie [or Fanny], and a host of other entities since he left office. Indeed, I would suggest that, with introspection, it is Newt’s more vociferous supporters who might “feel real stupid”.
I WILL vote for a conservative governing under ticket, and do what I can to assure a conservative House and Senate.
Had Santorum stood up to Specter and Bush and denounced him then, he’d be a Conservative icon now. But he folded like a cheap camera!
Trust the polls.
They aren’t being used to funnel anyone anyhwere.
Could not agree more.....they're at 5-8%!!! I assume you are a Cain supporter...how you going to feel about him when he endorses the dog crap later today?
At this time a few $100 donations will make the difference to some conservative non-establishment candidate.
Why would someone feel stupid for rejecting a candidate based on their abhorrence of his past performance as well as currently stated positions? That sounds like discernment, not stupidity.
Cain’s endorsement will matter to many of his supporters, just like Perry’s will matter to his supporters when he drops out. Just because your nasty self doesn’t like Cain doesn’t mean many people don’t.
Fortunately, for us, it doesn’t matter who you want to go away. I’m sure there’s a lot of us that wish you’d go away.
So now Cain is “a beloved pet.”
A negro pet.
As for me, a Cain supporter, I’m not “supporting” anyone any more. I’m simply going to vote against Romney in the primaries, and against Obama in the general election.
Anybody But Obama...ANYBODY!!!!
At a minimum, getting Obama out breaks the unholy alliance of the media and this administration.
Second, with Obama out, Obamacare has a chance of being knocked out before it gets its greasy tentacles deep into this nation.
There are SO many reasons why getting Obama out is worth putting up with a less than perfect RINO.
As it is, with Newt or Romney at the top of the ticket, I'm pretty much getting prepared for 4 more years of destruction.
You are out of your mind. Gingrich is the worst possible choice that Republicans could make. He's unelectable. He's got women problems, RINO problems, Global Warming problems, Healthcare problems, DC Inside the Beltway business as usal corruption problems, lobbying problems, pro-life problems, immigration problems, ego problems, attention disorder problems. You name it...the list could go on all day. Newt will never be elected!
Wow...got through all that without saying 'baggage'.
Anyone, but obama. every now and then, im tempted to give the GOP the bird for giving us this lineup. Then I think about obama getting another supreme court nominee. That alone would do more damage than Zero could.
Yep, our ticket is looking like Stinkville fer sure.
This election is completely about self-defense. Obama is that bad, that dangerouse that he must NOT win again.
Why is newt’s baggage any better than Cain’s? The Cain baggage is still just unverified accusations and Cain’s record pales up against Zeros record. Most of what is currently out about newt is verified, unlike Cain and just wait (for about 12-24 more hours) until the unverified crap starts flowing on newt. The point is not to jump ship on a candidate just because someone like these bastards push out charges and hired BS artists. No candidate is perfect and I have more respect for a candidate who will come back out punching than one who slinks off like Bush did when they lied about him. I hope Cain does come back and shoves it up the media/GOP’s worthless arses. Otherwise, we let them pick our candidate and hope for the best, expect the worst. I think newt is just a placeholder until they can slander him enough to open a clear path for their man Romney.
All I can say about any of them is heaven help us. My support of cain was mostly because he isn’t mitt or newt, and my preferred candidates don’t have a prayer.
Can’t say I disagree on that one, but we’ll have to wait at least a few more days to get a better assessment of where Cain’s support is going.
I don't even consider anyone else except Newt, Perry and Romney.
I think Perry is going to take it eventually OR Newt will make him VP.
The problem is that Romney has a lot of endorsements.
I do NOT consider Cain as a VP candidate but he's got "money talks syndrome" and any endorsement can be considered a big fat monetary bribe. Cute!!
“... train wreck.”
Caused by vandals, and facilitated by useful idiots.
I’m not voting for Newt..I don’t vote a certain way because someone else tells me to. Hard core Cain voters are not going to be led to Newt by Cain. It has taken perserverance and guts to hang tough with Cain..I’m not giving it to Newt.
Know what I’d love to see? I’d love to see Cain come out with his lawyer and evidence to prove his innocense. I’d love it. Then he can say Cain is supportin’ Cain..get back on the train.
Notice how many uppity publicans gave 9-9-9 kudos over the weekend? Yeah, let’s wait til the last dog has its bone before we count Cain out.
I’ll tell ya another thing. I’m sure this has been unbelievably hard on Mrs. Cain and the family. But .. women married to guys with a drive to turn this country around have to know going in that it’s gonna be tough. Palin’s showed how tough it is. I wish Mrs. Cain would look at the footage of her coming off the bus, standing on the stage, and see what I, as a supporter saw. I saw a woman who looked relaxed and looked like she was having fun. I saw a crowd chant her name and it almost brought tears to my eyes. Mrs. Gloria Cain is a strong woman, you can see it and I wonder if she finally felt the way Herman’s supporters felt about her.
I’m waiting..could be for nothing..could be for the greatest ride of the Cain’s life.