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U.S. ramps up warnings on Iran strike risks, says strike may ‘consume the Mideast’ in conflict
Al arabiya ^ | Monday, 05 December 2011 | Phil Stewart and Mark Hosenball

Posted on 12/05/2011 10:31:36 AM PST by indpndtguy

The United States has pointedly ramped up its public warnings over the last few weeks about the risks of military action against Iran, accompanied by private words of caution to Israel, which sees Tehran’s nuclear push as a direct threat.

But so far, at least, comments by U.S. and Israeli officials suggest that Washington's private lobbying has yet to convince Israeli hard-liners and even some moderates that alternatives, like sanctions and diplomatic pressure, will ultimately succeed in curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

It is unclear whether the differing views are any indication about whether Israel might be moving closer to a go-it-alone military strike, an option Tel Aviv has ruled out for the moment. Indeed, that may ultimately not be the case.

Rhetoric has periodically escalated over the years, often bolstering pushes - like the present one - for tougher sanctions against Iran. Making the right decision

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a speech on Sunday widely seen within Israel as hinting about policy on Iran, spoke about making “the right decision at the right moment,” even when allies object.

A nuclear-armed Iran, Netanyahu has said, is an existential threat to Israel.

Netanyahu’s comments came on the heels of U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s strongest comments yet explaining America’s concerns about a military strike on Iran.

Panetta said it risked “an escalation” that could “consume the Middle East in confrontation and conflict that we would regret.” It could also hobble the fragile U.S. and European economies and might do little to actually stop Iran from getting an atomic weapon - a goal Tehran denies having.

Iran says its uranium enrichment is for peaceful purposes.

Panetta, citing conversations with his “Israeli friends,” said an attack would only set back Iran’s nuclear program by one to two years at best. He also warned about blowback to U.S. forces in the region.

“The United States would obviously be blamed and we could possibly be the target of retaliation from Iran, striking our ships, striking our military bases,” Panetta told a forum in Washington on Friday.

Panetta privately outlined U.S. concerns in talks with Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak in Canada last month, including the impact a strike would have on the world economy.

Analysts say Tehran could retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway where about 40 percent of all traded oil passes. Global meltdown

President Barack Obama, who is gearing up for a re-election battle next year, has had more trouble than his Republican predecessor, George W. Bush, in winning Israeli trust.

Bruce Riedel, a former adviser to the Obama administration and former senior CIA expert on the Middle East, said Washington was deeply wary of being dragged into a conflict that, from its perspective, might be unnecessary.

“Obama knows a strike on Iran by Israel will create a regional war and a global economic meltdown that America will have to clean up,” Riedel said.

“And he knows Israel - with its own considerable nuclear arsenal - does not face an existential threat from a nuclear Iran.”

But, even considering likely retaliation on U.S. forces, the top U.S. military officer told Reuters in an interview this week he did not know whether the Jewish state would even give the United States notice ahead of time if it decided to act.

General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also suggested there was a gap in perspective between Israel and the United States, which sees sanctions and diplomatic pressure as the right path to take on Iran.

“I’m not sure the Israelis share our assessment of that. And because they don’t and because to them this is an existential threat, I think probably that it’s fair to say that our expectations are different right now,” Dempsey said..

Iran is facing another wave of sanctions following a report last month by the U.N. nuclear watchdog which said Tehran appeared to have worked on designing an atom bomb and may still be pursuing secret research to that end.

Barak said on Thursday an Israeli attack on Iran was not imminent. But, asked about Dempsey’s comments to Reuters, Barak said Israel “greatly respects” the United States.

“But one must remember that ultimately, Israel is a sovereign nation and the Israeli government, defense forces and security services - not others - are responsible for Israel's security, future and existence,” Barak said.

Barak, in a radio interview, said Israel would be very glad if sanctions and diplomacy brought the Iranian leadership to a clear decision to abandon its nuclear military program.

But, “unfortunately, I think that is not going to happen,” he said.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel
KEYWORDS: cwiiping; iran; israel; isreal; leonpanetta
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It looks like Bibi will attack Iran. Oil will go ballistic, and so will gold?
1 posted on 12/05/2011 10:31:45 AM PST by indpndtguy
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To: indpndtguy; archy; Nachum; SJackson; CodeToad; Lurker; blam; dennisw; Squantos; ...
I wonder if these same leaders and pundits are privately asking who is causing all of these high-order blasts at Iranian strategic sites?

Do they even know? Is it a new, undetectable weapon being used by the IDF? A possible game changer, that the Israelis are willing to use it in a deniable way?

I think that is the backdrop behind all of this frantic diplomacy.

The game is already on.

2 posted on 12/05/2011 10:36:00 AM PST by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: indpndtguy
Tehran appeared to have worked on designing an atom bomb and may still be pursuing secret research to that end.

Gosh, ya think?

Gotta respect some people's ability to keep a straight face.

3 posted on 12/05/2011 10:36:07 AM PST by SamuraiScot
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To: indpndtguy

Inevitable. Unavoidable. Set in stone.


4 posted on 12/05/2011 10:39:02 AM PST by Manic_Episode (Some mornings, it's just not worth chewing through the leather straps...)
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To: indpndtguy
"Israeli officials suggest that Washington's private lobbying has yet to convince Israeli hard-liners and even some moderates that alternatives, like sanctions and diplomatic pressure, will ultimately succeed in curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions."

Obama's foreign policy is 1) totally incompetent, 2) run by complete naifs, 3) or nefarious and seeks a global islamic caliphate.

There really are no other choices. The loss of the ME to hard-core islamists on Obama's watch suggests #3.

5 posted on 12/05/2011 10:40:41 AM PST by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: Manic_Episode
Inevitable. Unavoidable. Set in stone.

I don't know if I'd go that far, but clearly it is trending thatta way and the current U.S. regime is not very helpful.

6 posted on 12/05/2011 10:41:54 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (Ceterum autem censeo, Obama delenda est.)
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To: indpndtguy

OK, so how is allowing the crazy Mullahs in Iran to have access to nuclear weapons NOT going to consume the Middle East in conflict?

I mean, the radiation alone...

Sometimes you’re stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Doing nothing is an action of it’s own, that WILL result in Immams with atomic bombs.


7 posted on 12/05/2011 10:41:58 AM PST by Alas Babylon!
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To: Travis McGee

“Is it a new, undetectable weapon being used by the IDF?”

The US has tested a high-power airborn laser system....


8 posted on 12/05/2011 10:42:11 AM PST by I Shall Endure
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To: indpndtguy; Eaker; afnamvet; AK2KX; Ancesthntr; An Old Man; APatientMan; ApesForEvolution; ...
CW2 Ping

“Obama knows a strike on Iran by Israel will create a regional war and a global economic meltdown that America will have to clean up,” Riedel said.

Since any global economic meltdown is pretty sure to cause an "interesting" cascade of social meltdown in the USA, I'm pinging the CW2 list.

This means there are now two imminent disasters ready to trigger a "global economic meltdown," the Middle East and the European Monetary Union/Euro crisis.

I wonder if some synergy between the two will precipitate some even greater risk? Like two hurricanes colliding.

9 posted on 12/05/2011 10:44:07 AM PST by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: I Shall Endure

I wonder if it fits into that ginormous stealth drone that “strayed” from A-stan to Iran and crashed?

Maybe we’ll be treated to some pilotless U2/Gary Powers scenario, with the Iranians pulling out the laser?

Or are those lasers (or their power requirements) just still to big and heavy to fit into any drone? Last I heard, they took up a pretty big cargo jet or so.


10 posted on 12/05/2011 10:47:56 AM PST by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: Travis McGee

I’m wondering if the israelis have a working Rod From God or two up there.


11 posted on 12/05/2011 10:53:27 AM PST by Lurker (The avalanche has begun. The pebbles no longer have a vote.)
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To: indpndtguy

Maybe Obama should consider cancelling his “holiday” vacation and stay home. Too much happening to abandon the country for his own selfish ideals.


12 posted on 12/05/2011 10:54:50 AM PST by sanjuanbob (Festina Lente)
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To: Travis McGee
I wonder if these same leaders and pundits are privately asking who is causing all of these high-order blasts at Iranian strategic sites?

How many blasts have their been. I am only aware of one. Have their been more?

13 posted on 12/05/2011 10:56:15 AM PST by calex59
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To: indpndtguy

The DC establishement wants Iran to get a nuke, so they can take military action of the table. The rest is just stalling to let it happen.


14 posted on 12/05/2011 10:59:41 AM PST by Hugin ("Most time a man'll tell you his bad intentions if you listen and let yourself hear"--Open Range)
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To: calex59

I know of at least two. There was the big one at the missile facility and then another one last week in Ifsahan where their primary uranium enrichment facility is located.


15 posted on 12/05/2011 11:00:10 AM PST by Stonewall Jackson (Democrats: "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.")
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To: indpndtguy

and when you boil through all of the crapola, the argument Obama has made against the strike to the Israelis basically comes down to “it will push gasoline to fifteen bucks a gallon and cost me my re-election”.


16 posted on 12/05/2011 11:01:10 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: calex59
Oops, wrong there. How many blasts have their there been, sorry about that.
17 posted on 12/05/2011 11:01:17 AM PST by calex59
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To: Travis McGee

“Do they even know? Is it a new, undetectable weapon being used by the IDF?”

Of the two big explosions one killed a general and one occurred during the time-frame the Ayatollah was supposed to visit. Neither of the explosion locations would significantly slow down the nuclear bomb project. Given the dangers of carrying out strikes on foreign territory this tells us that it is not the Israelis or any western powers trying to slow down the bomb project. These hits were caused by homegrown revolutionaries. Now, it’s almost certain that money and logistics were provided by outsiders. It is really difficult for revolutionaries to assemble the components of a significant bomb without outside help. But the placement of those bombs had to be people who worked at or had access to those locations. Presumably, important atomic bomb locations would have better security; that being the reason those locations were not bombed.


18 posted on 12/05/2011 11:03:03 AM PST by Gen.Blather
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To: Travis McGee
I wonder if these same leaders and pundits are privately asking who is causing all of these high-order blasts at Iranian strategic sites?

Do they even know? Is it a new, undetectable weapon being used by the IDF? A possible game changer, that the Israelis are willing to use it in a deniable way?

Israel needs to keep her secrets - and yeah you're right Travis - the game is on...

19 posted on 12/05/2011 11:05:36 AM PST by GOPJ (Better is a dinner of herbs where love is, Than a fatted calf with hatred - Proverbs 15)
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To: Travis McGee

Israel attacks, might involve the Middle-East in a regional conflict.

Iran gets nuclear weapons..., yawn.

What is wrong with this picture?

If Iran gets nukes, regions outside of the Middle-East will be targets in short order. No concern there...


20 posted on 12/05/2011 11:11:16 AM PST by DoughtyOne (Romney, Newt, any chance whatsoever you might sometime pander to U.S. Citizens vs the illegals?)
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To: sanjuanbob

ObaMao would be better off taking a permanent vacation by resigning. Even Joe Biteme doesn’t live so deep in fantasyland.


21 posted on 12/05/2011 11:13:08 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Travis McGee
"Or are those lasers (or their power requirements) just still to big and heavy to fit into any drone? Last I heard, they took up a pretty big cargo jet or so. "

The X-37B Mystery Spacecraft Just Had Its Nine Month Mission Extended Indefinitely


22 posted on 12/05/2011 11:13:44 AM PST by blam
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To: indpndtguy

Vote YES! on lake iran......


23 posted on 12/05/2011 11:14:18 AM PST by joe fonebone (Project Gunwalker, this will make watergate look like the warm up band......)
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To: Travis McGee

The combination of the two is a recipe for a partial, if not a complete, civilizational collapse.


24 posted on 12/05/2011 11:14:35 AM PST by Noumenon (The only 'NO' a liberal understands is the one that arrives at muzzle velocity.)
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To: indpndtguy

Nothing will happen on Iran until the Syria gambit is resolved.


25 posted on 12/05/2011 11:28:33 AM PST by gandalftb (11th MEU, 2/4 Echo, TRAP Force)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks indpndtguy.

Media shills Phil Stewart and Mark Hosenball write:
Iran says its uranium enrichment is for peaceful purposes.
And that's B.S. And, they quote this joker:
Bruce Riedel, a former adviser to the Obama administration and former senior CIA expert on the Middle East, said... "Obama knows a strike on Iran by Israel will create a regional war and a global economic meltdown that America will have to clean up... And he knows Israel -- with its own considerable nuclear arsenal -- does not face an existential threat from a nuclear Iran."
Yeah, sure, a country some dozens of miles across wouldn't cease to exist from a couple of nuclear bombs, not at all. In fact, by the same reasoning, the US was never in any danger of nuclear annihilation by Soviet warheads on ICBMs.


26 posted on 12/05/2011 11:34:59 AM PST by SunkenCiv (It's never a bad time to FReep this link -- https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

“... the argument Obama has made against the strike to the Israelis basically comes down to “... it will ... cost me my re-election”.

How do we encourage the Israelis to take out Iran? What’s not to like about a twofur that takes out a domestic and a foreign enemy?


27 posted on 12/05/2011 11:41:14 AM PST by meatloaf (I've had it with recycling politicians in any way shape or form. Toss 'em out!)
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To: indpndtguy

When faced with crazy imams
With atom bombs
Just what is a Jew
Supposed to do?
Join the Left
In Islamo-love-ins?
Or go off meekly
To the ovens?
No, I don’t think so
Never again
On none but G-d
And the IDF
Should they depend


28 posted on 12/05/2011 11:41:43 AM PST by EternalVigilance
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To: SunkenCiv

I did buy some additional potassium iodide this year. (Just on a hunch)


29 posted on 12/05/2011 11:41:47 AM PST by blam
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To: I Shall Endure
"Is it a new, undetectable weapon being used by the IDF?”

The US recently tested a "flying bomb" which can fly at 3,500 mph. It looks like the Israeli's might already have it.

30 posted on 12/05/2011 11:56:49 AM PST by ExtremeUnction
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To: Travis McGee

The assassination of Francisco Franco and the invasion of Poland don’t have shit on the firestorm that’s going to engulf this planet when the shoe drops.

I look at it more like a cataclysmic collision of galaxies rather than hurricanes. No one will be spared, but those who make it out of the rubble will be able to start anew.


31 posted on 12/05/2011 1:00:36 PM PST by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: rarestia
The assassination of Francisco Franco

Whut?

32 posted on 12/05/2011 1:01:27 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Travis McGee

Obama “needs” this conflict......it will happen.


33 posted on 12/05/2011 1:08:55 PM PST by Squantos (Be polite. Be professional. But have a plan to kill everyone you meet)
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To: blam

34 posted on 12/05/2011 1:12:10 PM PST by Yehuda (Expel communists and jihadis... from the planet.)
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To: indpndtguy

Meanwhile out on the track there is a red flag.

The war is stopped while the Iranians regain their missile capability destroyed in the past weeks by parties unknown in a manner unknown


35 posted on 12/05/2011 1:16:12 PM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 ..... Crucifixion is coming)
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To: dfwgator

Dammit, I meant Archduke Francis Ferdinand.

Didn’t have enough coffee this morning, thanks Gator.


36 posted on 12/05/2011 1:16:42 PM PST by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: Squantos

Interesting take. Under the table, he might be kicking them with provocations like the “missing and crashed” big ass stealth drone.


37 posted on 12/05/2011 1:17:15 PM PST by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: rarestia

Forget it, you’re rolling. ;)


38 posted on 12/05/2011 1:17:23 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Noumenon

I sure hope not, but I need to remember to buy more sacks of rice and beans.

One thing collapse survivors like Fernando in Argentina and Selco in Bosnia agree on is they sure wish they had bought a LOT more food when it was cheap and available. That oversight forced both of them (and many thousands others) to risk their lives on shopping/foraging expeditions that during the most dangerous times, due to hunger.

Better to stay home and eat rice than to risk snipers or car jackings/robberies during the worst of it.


39 posted on 12/05/2011 1:20:36 PM PST by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: Travis McGee

“The United States would obviously be blamed and we could possibly be the target of retaliation from Iran, striking our ships, striking our military bases,” Panetta told a forum in Washington on Friday.

[Sure it could...But any attack on our forces (naval, land-based or Air) would just bring about severe retaliatory action based upon ROE, and not necessarily at the direct orders from NCA]

Panetta privately outlined U.S. concerns in talks with Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak in Canada last month, including the impact a strike would have on the world economy.

[Whaaaaaaaa...Geesh, some countries need to soldier up and rub a little dirt on their owweees...Bunch of cowards]

Analysts say Tehran could retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway where about 40 percent of all traded oil passes. Global meltdown

[We gamed this all out in the 80’s, and since then, the order of battle, and other assets and capabilities, have significantly improved for our side, not theirs...If we can get Obama out of office, I can guarantee the rhetoric from the ayatollas will decrease when a Republican sits in the big chair...It happened when Reagan took office...It’ll happen again...]

Just my opinion...I hope we can keep this from going down before then...

If they believe Obama won’t do anything significant in retaliation, they’ll make a move...If he somehow bamboozles the world into thinking he might...Well...So much the better, but I will not hold my breath...


40 posted on 12/05/2011 1:45:50 PM PST by stevie_d_64 (I'm jus' sayin')
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To: Travis McGee; Lurker

Yes, it’s interesting to see the common threads and themes that emerge from recent accounts of life during civil unrest.

We’re still slowly accumulating staples of all sorts. As much for trade as for our own consumption. As with many folks, our finances have been heavily impacted by the rise in prices, so it’s month-to-month and sometimes even week-to-week for us. Still we manage to throw an extra 25 pound sack of rice or an axtra rack or two of canned items in the cart. Been focusing on coffee a bit more of late. Cafe Bustelo and Medaglia del Oro instant espresso and similar coffee-related items that’ll keep.


41 posted on 12/05/2011 1:51:48 PM PST by Noumenon (The only 'NO' a liberal understands is the one that arrives at muzzle velocity.)
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To: stevie_d_64

I think the straits of hormuz are too much of a wild card to call.


42 posted on 12/05/2011 1:52:24 PM PST by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: dfwgator

Franz... Francis... I got the first 4 letters right anyway.

This season used to drive me to the bottle. Perhaps I should give up sobriety. heh

Oh... and how bout them Noles, gator? ;)


43 posted on 12/05/2011 1:52:33 PM PST by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: dfwgator

He’s still dead, you know.


44 posted on 12/05/2011 1:53:48 PM PST by Noumenon (The only 'NO' a liberal understands is the one that arrives at muzzle velocity.)
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To: Noumenon

I hope that like Y2K, we all have a good laugh in five years about all of this bulk food we bought and threw away, unneeded.


45 posted on 12/05/2011 1:54:00 PM PST by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: rarestia

Who had the more disappointing season? I didn’t expect all that much from the Gators this year, but I thought this was supposed to be the year FSU returned to the elite of college football.


46 posted on 12/05/2011 1:56:35 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Travis McGee

Ohhhh, and about those “blasts”...

If they are testing a launch system...Then that certainly has the risks inhierant with a developing program doesn’t it...

Both the Russians, Americans and Chinese have had growing pains in this regard...

I still believe the integration of a nuclear package onto a delivery system is yet another big step to hurdle over yet for the Iranians...

I believe throwing a functional nuke in a truck and driving it across an unsecured border is more plausible and dependable...Give the driver a truck and the trigger, and there goes the nieghborhood...City...Port...etc etc etc...

I put money on Baghdad going away in that case...But thats just me...


47 posted on 12/05/2011 1:57:16 PM PST by stevie_d_64 (I'm jus' sayin')
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To: Travis McGee

The perfect storm???


48 posted on 12/05/2011 1:58:26 PM PST by stevie_d_64 (I'm jus' sayin')
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To: Travis McGee

How did that saying go? “A few years from now we’ll either be laughing about it all or reloading.”


49 posted on 12/05/2011 2:06:00 PM PST by Noumenon (The only 'NO' a liberal understands is the one that arrives at muzzle velocity.)
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To: sanjuanbob

Zero was probably told to get out of the way.


50 posted on 12/05/2011 2:40:09 PM PST by Cold Heart
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