Skip to comments.China-geddon: A China crash will be scarier than Europe
Posted on 12/07/2011 11:52:05 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
China-geddon: A China crash will be scarier than Europe
Venky Vembu Dec 2, 2011
Say youre at a railway station, waiting for the slow train to eurogeddon. Youve been told that the eurozone is in deep trouble with all those piles of debt, that it will fall apart inevitably, dismembering the euro and inflicting pain and misery around the world.
Months go by, and although theres a lot of shunting and hooting, and lots of frenetic activity, the eurogeddon train doesnt steam in. You begin to grow impatient, and wonder if the train is coming at all. And then in the way that we all do, you crane your neck over the platform in the direction from which you expect the train to come.
And then, before you can say PIIGS, a monstrously big train steams in from the other direction on the same track and knocks you down flat.
Speaking at a closed-door seminar in Shenyang a month ago, Lang revealed, among other things:
Chinas economy, contrary to claims that it grew by 9.1 percent, is actually in recession, and contracting by perhaps as much as 10 percent.
Chinas inflation rate, again contrary to government statistics putting it at 6.2 percent, is close to 16 percent.
Chinas debt burden is about $5.7 trillion, more than the size of its economy. Of this, local government debt makes up about $2.5 trillion, and the liabilities of state-owned enterprises about as much.
And with the interest burden mounting at an exponential rate, he reckons it will all unravel rapidly.
In his assessment, China is just as bankrupt as any European peripheral country, and when the economic tsunami hits, it will be worse than what Japan experienced in the 1980s.
(Excerpt) Read more at firstpost.com ...
I realy, realy hope this isn’t true...
the majority of china is dirt poor. a ‘crash’ would effect a small portion of their population.
BUT, unlike the US, they have a manufacturing base through which to climb out
With China’s history of revolution, this might not end well...
China could show what the ‘full-scale’ unrest really means. It is not impossible that folks in other countries stop their rioting for the moment and watch China’s scale of unrest in awe.
I read some strategic assessment somewhere that said one of the most probable places for a limited nuclear exchange is a Chinese civil war.
From the global point of view, no real recovery would start until both U.S. and China hit bottom, and EU along the way. Of course, between the crash bottom and recovery, we could see major wars breaking out.
Let let them play themselves out and start the hell over.[without all the games]
China dealing with an economic collapse is nothing but good news for her neighbors.
China is an empire. As such, they are subject to the insurrectionist forces normal empires generally face.
Question I’d like answered is what does it cost the Central Government to garrison all of its territories.
The Mongolians can’t stand the Chinese. We know where Tibet stands, but we also know that Tibet is the one thing they will die holding onto (this is where all the water is).
Russia’s election was eye opening. Assad’s in trouble in Syria. Whither China?
You have to wonder whether China will look to be thrown into the briar patch like the USSR was. True, the USSR flew apart. However, Russia was then no longer obligated to prop up all of the satellites and territories. The cost of running the empire went down, since the cost of support was baked into the benefits of ‘freedom’ for the satellites and territories.
That the freedom only SORT of came to Ukraine and others is the best part for Russia. They can meddle at no charge in their sphere of influence.
Maybe China learns from this and cuts some of its ‘losers’.
There was a show on the travel channel last year called “An Idiot Abroad.” Ricky Gervais sent a friend of his, Karl Pilkington, to a different country each week to see the seven wonders of the world. One of the episodes was in China. If you can find it, watch it. China is a house of cards built ten times higher than anything anywhere else in the world.
They have a huge peasant population. Every time a farmer gets a tractor, fifty peasants are instantly unemployed and head towards the cities looking for work. They need to find jobs for millions of them every year and now they can’t. The government is trying to prevent peasants from entering the cities looking for work. It is, in the long run, untenable.
The Chinese Government owns everything including labor. The communists in power just drop wages, raise the price of food and shelter for the public and print money when necessary.
That’s the ticket!
It looks like China is trying to do to us what we did to the USSR...ie; bring us down financially. They may have bitten off more than they can chew, especially if we unload that anchor on our economy currently situated at 1600 Pa. Ave.
The China myth is bigger than the Japan myth ever was. The reason for it is so liberals can speak dreamily about the China “miracle”. Somebody’s roosts are coming home to chickens.
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