Posted on 12/08/2011 8:30:49 PM PST by neverdem
President Obama and his re-election team have prided themselves on their well-oiled get-out-the-vote effort. But a new study from the centrist think tank Third Way suggests Democrats are losing ground organizationally in nearly all of the key battleground states in the general election.
The group's analysis found that, in the eight politically-pivotal states that register voters by party, a significant number have left the Democratic party since 2008, with many choosing to register as independents. Over 825,000 registered Democrats in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania have departed the party rolls since President Obama's election in 2008, a much more significant share than the number of Republicans (378,000) who have done the same. Meanwhile, the number of registered independents has ticked upwards by 254,000.
The report underscores how much different 2012 will be for Obama than 2008. Back then, it was commonplace to hear how many new voters the Obama campaign was registering. Now, it looks like some of those voters, newly disenchanted, are leaving the party rolls.
Unless they’re switching in order to vote in the Republican primary ...
That doesn't guarantee they will vote for the GOP though. "Independendents" need to be convinced.
You're right. Anyone who believe that Independents can be relied upon to bring home the bacon for the Republicans has apparently forgotten the Ross Perot debacle.
*BINGO!*
If the MSM fails to pick our candidate, then these “former Democrats” will make the backup attempt.
Obama’s not worried. He has an endless supply of voters who either aren’t legal or aren’t alive that will make up for any exodus of living, breathing voters.
Highly unlikely that they'll vote Dem - why leave the party? They may simply not vote, or a certain number of them might be trying to cause problems in the GOP primaries. But this isn't good news for the 'Rats.
I think it’s an opportunity for conservatives, but they have to explain, for example, why Obama does not represent the interests of the middle class. If they don’t make their case effectively to independendents, we are in trouble.
Great Merciful Zeus: Longtime Romney Supporters Abandoning Him in Chicago. Is His “Inevitable” Victory Now Impossible?
December 8, 2011 by Kevin DuJan
http://hillbuzz.org/great-merciful-zeus-longtime-romney-supporters-abandoning-him-in-chicago-is-his-inevitable-victory-now-impossible-70104
(NOTE: Read the comments, too.)
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Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball
12/08/2011
2012 Republican Race: The Field May Not Be Closed
Conventional wisdom is that the Republican presidential field is set, and that it is much too late for a new candidate to enter the race.
In years past, that would be absolutely correct. Over the last few decades, dozens of primaries and caucuses have been shoe-horned into the opening weeks of the election year, with the tendency on the Republican side for the front-running candidate to score a quick knockout.
But next year, the arrangement of the primary calendar is much different. It is less condensed at the front, much more loaded with events at the back, with the prospect of a viable, late-starting candidate quite real.
[snip] Continue reading here: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/
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Could Sarah Palin Still Get in the Race?
“.....Feb. 14 is the last day that a late entrant could enter the race and reasonably be expected to do well in subsequent races.
The scenario looks something like this: http://voices.yahoo.com/could-sarah-palin-still-race-10634503.html?cat=9
Thanks for the links.
depends on the state. in many states you can’t be independent and vote in any other parties’ primary other than independent. I know I used to be one and always missed out in voting in the Republican primary. This is one reason I switched over. I am a conservative and wanted to insure my vote in the Republican arena.
>> the Ross Perot debacle.
He singlehandedly changed the direction of this Country. Perot knew damn well he would not win.
Let’s begin with the Clinton era concerning national security...
I love the Boyz! I’m a frequent reader. That is one very astute bunch of people WRT Chicago politics.
I don’t know all of the filing deadlines, but I believe if Sarah was going to enter the race, she would have a lot of ground to make up, unless she’s been organizing on the sly.
I wish she would enter the race, but I don’t think it’s feasible at this point. :o(
In Oregon, there is an Independent party, and we have closed primaries. So, I am currently considered unaffiliated.
I need to register with a party to vote in the primary, or I won’t be able to vote. Our primary isn’t until May.
In 2008, for the very first time in my life, I registered as a ‘rat so that I could vote for Hillary!, and against Obama.
825,000 probably dumped or purged off the rolls because they could not be verified and were probably the acorn fake voters that were stuffed onto the rolls in 2008 but are slowly getting wiped off.
That might be. It would account for the lower loss of membership that the Republicans experienced. Is the figure the number who have actually left the party, or the net growth or loss?
The Republican Party forgot the Ross Perot debacle; they don’t understand that even if splitting the vote means another Obama term, some people still vote on principle.
The same thing sunk Gore with Nader supporters, and Nader deflected any blame from himself; he has always maintained that Al Gore cost Al Gore the election.
Ross Perot didn’t run to win; he ran to give a voice to many people not represented by the 2 segments of the one party we have (Republicrats). He won 19% of the vote - that is significant, and in my eyes justifies what he did (even though BJ Clinton was horrible). Clinton also learned from it, and was a better “Republican” than the one he followed.
Exactly, and so far I don't see Republicans that are very good at that.
I met an elderly couple from North Carolina who were staunch Jesse Helmes-Republicans, but they were registered as Democrats their entire lives so they could vote in the Dem primary.
And here in Virginia, primaries are open! It’s operation chaos all the time.
Not that I’m entirely cynical. I’m sure most do vote party affiliation.
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