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South is up for grabs for GOP
Politico ^ | December 13, 2011 | Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin

Posted on 12/13/2011 3:06:55 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

GREENVILLE, S.C. – In the geographic heart of the Republican Party, the contest for the allegiance of Southern conservatives in the 2012 race is as wide open as ever.

Of all the prizes still up for grabs in the GOP presidential primary, few are as desirable as the support of the South. Republican presidential nominations have traditionally been forged here – in South Carolina, especially – and any successful challenger to Mitt Romney would likely have to dominate among heavily conservative, evangelical Southern voters.

Yet the only candidate this cycle who seemed to have a shot at locking down the South, Rick Perry, has stumbled badly. Newt Gingrich, the anti-Romney favorite du jour, is polling well across the region, but politicos question whether the former Georgia congressman has what it takes to dominate in Dixie.

So as the Republican Party looks ahead at the possibility of a long primary fight, there’s a real possibility that none of the finalists will have any distinctive appeal in the core region of the GOP.

“We’re a little more split up this time,” said Henry Barbour, the Republican National Committeeman for Mississippi and a Perry supporter. “I don’t think there’s a natural favorite son of the South in this primary.”

Said Barbour: “Gov. Perry looked really strong down here early on, now unfortunately that’s opened back up … Can Gov. Perry come back? I think he can.”

(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.politico.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012gopprimary; conservatism; gopprimary; perryastroturfing; redstates; religion; south
Long and rambling but an interesting look at the landscape.
1 posted on 12/13/2011 3:06:59 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

The TEA PARTY is alive, organized, and waiting.


2 posted on 12/13/2011 3:12:24 AM PST by PeaRidge
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To: PeaRidge
Presidential Candidate [Perry] Holds Agriculture Conference Call
3 posted on 12/13/2011 3:18:51 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: All

Gingrich...and it won’t be close, he’s beating Romney in Michigan and has huge leads in SC and Florida.


4 posted on 12/13/2011 3:29:58 AM PST by rbmillerjr (Conservative Economic and National Security Commentary: econus.blogspot.com)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

“South is up for grabs for GOP”
Gee ya think? Which state can Obama win? New York and California aren’t in the South.


5 posted on 12/13/2011 4:21:30 AM PST by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: rbmillerjr
Well, Bachmann and Santorum will be gone soon. Probably after Iowa.

Huntsman is out after New Hampshire. They will all be broke. Paul will also be a non factor after NH.

That will leave Perry,Newt and Mitt. Then we can start talking.

Rick Perry will be hitting the ground in SC and then to Florida. Perry wont be going anywhere for a while and Newt hasn't had a chance yet to see his numbers fall. Newt can be in it if the grass roots will donate some money but I think they blew it all on Cain.

Perry will continue to get support from the states and MItt will get the big establishment cash.

6 posted on 12/13/2011 4:31:16 AM PST by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: normy; All
Perry Ground Game: An Old-Fashioned Bus Tour
7 posted on 12/13/2011 4:41:35 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
I caught that. Also I see Obama has told Texas they better fund Planned Parenthood or they will withhold Federal money for Well Woman that provides free cancer screening.

The fact that Texas is a net donor state has to fight for stuff like this is bogus but I say bring it on Kenyan. Perry will hammer this home and soon.

Iowans and South Carolinians need to hear about this and soon.

God is certainly with Perry taking Obama in his own craftiness.

8 posted on 12/13/2011 4:46:02 AM PST by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: normy

And I’m sure the next shoe to drop is the Texas Photo Voter ID bill sitting on Eric Holder’s desk for “review.”

Our Texas GOP legislative majority redrawn voter districts are also being challenged.

“In choosing between the two sets of maps, or aspects of them, the Supreme Court is likely to provide important guidance on the role of the federal courts under the Voting Rights Act of 1965, one of the crowning achievements of the civil rights movement. Section 5 of the law requires Texas and other jurisdictions with a history of discrimination to seek federal permission to make even minor changes to voting procedures.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/10/us/politics/supreme-court-to-hear-texas-election-district-case.html


9 posted on 12/13/2011 5:04:42 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Of course the South is up for grabs for the GOP—because they’re racist! It’s time to just chuck those grit-eating, negro-lynching, shotgun toting hicks out of the Union! I have never been to the South, but I played a klansman in Oh, Brother Where Art Thou, so I know all about it./sarc


10 posted on 12/13/2011 5:10:49 AM PST by Eleutheria5 (Diplomacy is war by other means.)
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To: Eleutheria5
Yeah, there is a Freeper who is so precious she gets her ideas of the south from the movie “In the heat of the night”.
11 posted on 12/13/2011 5:15:36 AM PST by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: Eleutheria5

http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3Dkrwywj_gIjk&sa=X&ei=-lfnTvXQNc-utwfY5e3ECg&ved=0CDsQuAIwAg&usg=AFQjCNEEkQ-COy5gNMlPqAuiHBPtpEkSvw


12 posted on 12/13/2011 6:04:00 AM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: Eleutheria5

Hey if they want to kick the South out of the Union, DO IT! PLEASE do it!


13 posted on 12/13/2011 7:20:20 AM PST by mojitojoe (SCOTUS.... think about that when you decide to sit home and pout because your candidate didn't win)
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To: normy

Great movie... Steiger was superb!


14 posted on 12/13/2011 7:21:45 AM PST by mojitojoe (SCOTUS.... think about that when you decide to sit home and pout because your candidate didn't win)
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To: org.whodat

LOL!! I think Clooney loved doing that movie, being a Southern boy and all. Too bad he moved to CA and turned into a leftie moonbat.


15 posted on 12/13/2011 7:35:48 AM PST by mojitojoe (SCOTUS.... think about that when you decide to sit home and pout because your candidate didn't win)
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To: mojitojoe

He and the soggy bottom boys did a great job.


16 posted on 12/13/2011 7:54:02 AM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

What interests me is that almost any Pub can defeat Obama down South next year and that is good news. The southern states that made a mistake in 2008, will have a chance to redeem themselves in 2012 and vote against as many Dems as possible.


17 posted on 12/13/2011 3:44:49 PM PST by phillyfanatic
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To: rbmillerjr
Gingrich...and it won’t be close, he’s beating Romney in Michigan and has huge leads in SC and Florida.

We know Romney won't carry the South. The more important contest is the states in which Romney supposedly had a lock. New Hampshire is one that comes to mind - Gingrich is doing something people didn't think any of the candidates could do - make Willard sweat in supposedly "safe" states.

I'm still not a big fan of Gingrich, but if he can make things close in Romney strongholds, that puts him well ahead of the others. We have to beat Romney first, then Obama.

God forbid if Romney somehow wins, then we're back to square one and voting for a third party candidate or writing in somebody.
18 posted on 12/13/2011 4:14:33 PM PST by af_vet_rr
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To: normy
Huntsman is out after New Hampshire. They will all be broke. Paul will also be a non factor after NH.

That will leave Perry,Newt and Mitt. Then we can start talking.


Money means nothing this time around. Perry had all kinds of money and it couldn't stop his descent, Romney has bucketfuls of cash and he's now starting to go backwards. Meanwhile Gingrich's campaign (and Cain prior to him) weren't rolling in cash but still climbed to the top. The others are getting all kinds of exposure through the debates and through the internet.

Even Huntsman, who was dropped from the last debate, is still making the rounds of the talk shows.

The only way the field will narrow is if they start being ignored in the debates and by the media. What's going to have to happen is the debates are going to have to start shedding candidates. Huntsman was not invited to the debate last week, and I've heard that Santorum may not be invited to a future debate or two, and possibly the next two people in line after him as well.

In a way it's good. No longer does it mean that we get stuck with candidates who can spend their way into contention. On the other hand, it means that some candidates can hang around far longer, which can be good and bad depending on the candidate.

It's tight as far as time though. Romney is like a ship that ran into three icebergs by the names of Bachmann, Perry, and Cain, and none of them could make him take on water, they just slowed him down. He's now run into an iceberg by the name of Gingrich and finally he's taking on some water.

If this were 20 years ago, things would be a lot different, and I think Romney would be doing a lot better. Thank God for the Tea Party movement and for the internet.
19 posted on 12/13/2011 4:27:26 PM PST by af_vet_rr
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To: af_vet_rr
Except we haven't even done Iowa yet. Everyone moves and shakes until Iowa is over. How do you pay staff or even have any organization in any state? You can't.

After Iowa Bachmann and Santorum will be gone although Bachmann could hang around. Santorum isn't going to keep fighting so he will drop and his voters will look elsewhere just like Cain's did.

Perry could very well pull 3rd in Iowa with Romney 4th or 5th. Pull a bad showing in New Hampshire and lose South Carolina and Florida. It's all about momentum and although you may not believe it, Newt has yet to be vetted. Newt's vetting will be a drip drip drip and as Perry sharpens his debates, and he already has done so since the "oops" gaffe, Newt will lose soft support to Perry. Eventually Newt will have to spend money or make money. Staffers want to get paid.

I could actually see Newt doing poorly in Iowa for the simple reason he has no ground game. No one to drag his supporters to the polls. What then?

20 posted on 12/13/2011 4:51:02 PM PST by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: normy
Except we haven't even done Iowa yet. Everyone moves and shakes until Iowa is over. How do you pay staff or even have any organization in any state? You can't.

By your measure, Ron Paul should have done much better in 2008 since he had a lot of money and a lot of volunteers and organizers. Thanks to the internet, TV, the debates, if they can be on the ballot, they can have influence, regardless of money. These days, money means nothing, otherwise Romney and Perry would be fighting for the lead and we wouldn't be talking about anybody else.

Perry could very well pull 3rd in Iowa with Romney 4th or 5th. Pull a bad showing in New Hampshire and lose South Carolina and Florida. It's all about momentum


Romney could run away with a huge win in New Hampshire and it won't mean squat anywhere in the South. He's a Mormon and a RINO - he can get a win in New Hampshire, but those two things won't sell well in the South. Well maybe Florida.

It's all about momentum and although you may not believe it, Newt has yet to be vetted. Newt's vetting will be a drip drip drip

It took Jim Robinson and a few others to remind me that Newt has been more thoroughly vetted than any other candidate in the primaries. The Democrats did everything they could time and time again to take him down over the past 20 years.

During the last debate, Snuffleupagus and Sawyer were doing their damnedest to sink Newt and get the other candidates to pile on, and while a few did pile on Newt, Newt came out on top and Romney came out hurting. Gingrich won simply because he had the most to lose in the last debate, and he didn't lose anything - the moderators tried their best to drag him under, and he turned their attacks into pluses and threw it all back in their faces.

Newt has been through the pressure cooker - none of the other candidates have had to go through such pressure and so much vetting over the years. Bachmann and Perry have had easy campaigns during their career for the most part, and neither was subjected to the stress on a national level that Newt has experienced during the leadup to the Republican Revolution. Santorum....well Rick can't even win his own state. Ron Paul is in his own little world where reality rarely intrudes. Romney...the media has been going very light on him in the hopes he gets the nomination.

Like Jim Robinson and others have said, Gingrich is battle-tested on a level that none of the other candidates has ever experienced. Without Gingrich, the Republicans would not have had 1994. I still have a lot of issues with Gingrich, but the man has a proven track record of fighting and beating the Democrats at a national level.
21 posted on 12/13/2011 5:17:20 PM PST by af_vet_rr
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To: af_vet_rr
Newt hasn't sniffed a campaign battle in 15 years.

We'll keep talking as the campaign goes on.

22 posted on 12/13/2011 5:51:54 PM PST by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: normy
Newt hasn't sniffed a campaign battle in 15 years.

From April of this year through October, Newt was consistently polling in the single digits. Now he's at the top and is doing something that Bachmann, Perry, and Cain weren't really able to do - eroding Romney's support. That is catching a lot of peoples' attention. He's doing it even as the media is trying to tear him down in the debates.

I'd say he's up to speed.

Besides, look at the competition - Bachmann hasn't had much in the way of campaign battles. Santorum can't win in his own state. Perry was blessed in 2002 with no Republican challengers and a Democrat who was destroyed by another Democrat, then benefited in 2006 from running against a secessionist in the primary and then a clown car full of third party candidates in the general election that divided the field, then in 2010 against Kay Bailey Hutchison who didn't really care followed up by a Clinton insider during the general. Ron Paul...is Ron Paul. Romney? His track record for winning is the worst of the bunch.

Like I said, not a big fan, but he's faced far tougher challenges than any of the other candidates and he's done so on a national level. He also doesn't let himself get dragged down into petty squabbles in the debate like Bachmann, Romney, and Perry have, and I think it's helped.

Some of these candidates look like they are trying to score points on one another during the debates, as if dragging down one another is going to raise them up, while Gingrich acts like he's running for President.
23 posted on 12/13/2011 6:47:30 PM PST by af_vet_rr
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To: normy

I will say it’s unfortunate that we have the field of candidates that we do. I hope that come 2016, the Tea Party movement will have more of an influence.


24 posted on 12/13/2011 6:49:06 PM PST by af_vet_rr
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