Skip to comments.Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years
Posted on 12/13/2011 7:22:15 PM PST by WilliamIII
Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.
The National Association of Realtors said a benchmarking exercise had revealed that some properties were listed more than once, and in some instances, new home sales were also captured.
"All the sales and inventory data that have been reported since January 2007 are being downwardly revised. Sales were weaker than people thought," NAR spokesman Walter Malony told Reuters.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
The good news is that dismal sales next quarter won’t look so bad in comparison.
I’m disgusted to be a part of this industry
I bet this will do wnders for th e economy. Watch stocks rally tomorrow.
Well at some point when you are padding the books for Obama, you have to reset the values near reality, or you end up with impossible numbers. Guess that is now for the real estate end of things. Nice after 5 years of lying, they finally come clean.
People trade off of and make investment decisions based on numbers like these. Professional’s livelihoods depend on accurate assessment of the economy (of which housing is huge) and those that are affected by it. like Lowes for example.
Maybe a criminal investigation is warranted.
What a bunch of idiots. About as reliable a GW ‘scientists’.
It’s gotta really hurt for these guys to tell the truth once in a while.
Great. This means the housing market has further to fall until it reaches its bottom. The economy is so far from recovery that I wonder if we’ll even be seeing any true positive growth of any significance until the next decade.
My children’s future looks very bleak.
Can we start calling this the Second Great Depression, now? Can everyone agree to that and stop lying about it and stop saying that things “unexpectedly” looked worse this week?
We should have let the whole friggin’ thing crash back in 2008, and started over again. Now after all the trillions spent on bailouts, all it’s done is delayed the inevitable and made the inevitable even worse.
Consider the timing. It happened at the exact moment the industry was in trouble.
For guys like me betting that they were lying?
For every winner, there’s a loser.
Women and children hardest hit by lower sales??
The bailouts did make it worse. And we sent money to Europe in the TARP package. We’ll send them money now, too. That won’t help them. The European Union might be torn in half over their monetary difficulties. I really think they will end up with two groups of nations... the winners and the losers.
And after that, our crash is coming. We can’t afford our unfunded liabilities and we are going to have to service our debt. Obama has spent us into a painful reality with a complicit Legislature that helped him. Both Houses are guilty, including John Boehner’s House. All of this is by design.
And I don’t care how much money you have saved up. The global economy is going to be rocked.
Everyone is in for a world of pain. Life won’t ever be the same.
All the more reason not to believe the figures from the Government the xxxx association, trade group, etc. If they are big and important enough to have a label, their probably lying. Most of the time, you can just look around and see that their figures don’t make sense and are probably wrong.
Wow. Just wow. All the people who traded on the fake numbers just have to eat the loss I guess. I wouldn’t stick one thin dime in this market under any circumstances. If you still have any money in the market and you don’t have inside access, you deserve what’s coming to you.
E.g. the weekly jobs claims which are revised upward 99% of the time. But of course no one at BLS has taken a class in statistics and revised their methodology to account for the obvious bias.
You're so right. So many of us know that so many others are so dishonest. So...what now?
Look on the bright side- think how much better the numbers for next year will look in comparison. Why, I bet sales double or better, and in an election year, too, whodathunkit....
and on top of this California is going to raising taxes!?. Give me a break liberalism is not only a joke it is pure evil.
Here’s a novel idea: forget the benchmarking and just accurately count the actual number of sales.
How friggin’ hard can that be?
AKA: This is the lie that corrects our previous lie.
Micah 6:11 "Can I justify wicked scales And a bag of deceptive weights?
Micah 6:12 "For the rich men of the city are full of violence, Her residents speak lies, And their tongue is deceitful in their mouth.
Micah 6:13 "So also I will make you sick, striking you down, Desolating you because of your sins.
MIC 6:14 "You will eat, but you will not be satisfied, And your vileness will be in your midst. You will try to remove for safekeeping, But you will not preserve anything, And what you do preserve I will give to the sword.
MIC 6:15 "You will sow but you will not reap. You will tread the olive but will not anoint yourself with oil; And the grapes, but you will not drink wine.
I don't about all of you, but what the Lord says about dishonesty DOES scare me. And, then there's this passage:
Proverbs 20:23 Differing weights are an abomination to the Lord, And a false scale is not good.
I don't have any more comment...the Lord states it pretty clearly.
Well that sucks. But is the Realtor count the count we actually use? Seems like we’d go by county sales numbers....
Ah, Jan 2007. Unemployment was under 5% and the ‘RATs just took over Congress.
“......Sales were weaker than people thought,” NAR spokesman Walter Malony told Reuters.”
Ah so...note the old shared blame trick. “....sales were weaker than people thought”
Who kept the records? Was it the people that thought the sales were better!?
Hey Though, i just sold my nice, sweet ranch home in an awesome neighborhood!.
I’m Moving into a crappy rental house next month!!
CHANGE Baby, Change.
Just distributing my wealth is all.
i feel good!
Insiders run it all, it's completely manipulated.
They captured more data when it entered low orbit and crashed outside Kansas City, where the data was miraculously recovered...
Realtors caught lying, well that is a new one, normally they lie and never admit it.
“All the people who traded on the fake numbers just have to eat the loss I guess.”
Scary; who believes anything these liars put out there anyway? Here in northern NJ, there is no way anyone could convince me that housing is doing well at all. I could either believe the media, or the forest of “For Sale” signs; even worse, there is now an undercurrent of older homeowners waiting to bail out of the market (and state) for the right price - any slight increase in home prices will dislodge thousands of these homes, flooding the market again. They can’t be picky because the property taxes are draining their retirement funds - they HAVE TO get out.
Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.
The benchmark revisions will be published next Wednesday and will not affect house prices.
Anyone living in Florida knew that the home sales figures were bogus. Property values continue to drop
Why would anyone make an individual home-buying decision based on aggregate sales numbers from NAR? You’re supposed to analyze comps in the neighborhood where you want to buy.
You wouldn't, but if you are trying to encourage people on the sidelines to come out in play in a terrible environment, cooking the books to make things look peachy nation wide would be one way to go. I have been involved in Real Estate for years and there is one truism. An agent will always lie or hold back pertinent info if they think they can get away with it to make the sale. No reason to believe that a group run by agents and brokers would be any different.
It used to be that the realtor would be the one that would choose the appraiser for the buyer. In the case of a listing agent, the real estate agent might recommend that the seller hire an appraiser to determine what their asking price might be. Realtors learn which appraisers tend to low-ball their appraisal, so the word gets around and that appraiser won’t get any business from them any longer. (Realtors are known for having lists of “approved” home inspectors and appraisers.)
Slow sales mean that the seller might have to lower their asking price, which means a smaller commission for the realtor/broker.
I don’t understand your “padding the books for Obama” when this started under the Bush Administration. If the Obama people had known about this they could have made a big fuss about it last election, then they could have claimed some improvement if there was any.
Unemployment was under 5% because developers were building like mad, banks were shoveling unsound loans out the door, but sales were not keeping up with building.
Why are we not surprised? Everything this government says is so IS A LIE, don’t you know?
Doesn't He always? It is amazing (well, not really) to find all of human behavior described in scripture. The sad thing is that all are like that, but, to those who believe:
Col. 1:13 "He has delivered us from the domain of darkness and transferred us to the kingdom of his beloved Son, in whom we have redemption, the forgiveness of sins.
Col 1:21 :And you, who once were alienated and hostile in mind, doing evil deeds, he has now reconciled in his body of flesh by his death, in order to present you holy and blameless and above reproach before him."
“The good news is that dismal sales next quarter wont look so bad in comparison....”
The statistics Americans pay their government to accumulate on their behalf, supposedly to the use and benefit of We the People are ALL being manipulated beyond utility to those of us in FLyover Country...and to the ends of the elite. I say...
“why continue to pay for them to continue to accumulate data if its not going to be used and presented on our behalf?”
I understand your angst, but the problem is not just with your industry. Many entities are in the tank for the Usurping Marxist Onada. These include the GOP, much of the judiciary, education, unions, media, religious leadership and Wall Street leadership.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that we are in a sorting out period with these entities—and their failed policies—being shown up for what they are.
I’m heartened when I see the impact real Tea Party Conservatives are having on the GOP’s roster of demrat party-controlled RINOs. The primary RINO lingerers—Gingrich, Romney and Perry—are not shoe-ins despite the blatant attempts by the GOP and Marxist media to make one or all of them “inevitable”.
The thing is to grit your teeth through the remaining primary charade. I think the eventual conservative candidate will emerge at the convention when state GOPs can make their will felt. Right now the primary is only a national GOP cartoon show.
Your industry, like others, has tried to pretend that nothing happened the day Onada occupied the WH. Or it subscribes to Marxism. Or some combination of the two. Certainly no one in the Onbada regime was gonna question the “good” numbers coming from Realtors.
The only problem is that this very sick economy has only gotten worse despite the propanda and despite the obscene billions in pork dolled out to Onada’s friends. There comes a point at which the truth becomes so overwhelming that the house of cards collapses. The same thing happened to the Soviet Union. The same thing is happening in China as Capitalism takes root in that country. Korea and Cuba are basket cases.
So here we have a Marxist regime in the US pushing a system that’s failed everytime its been tried. Makes sense, right?
The Bible has something to say in principle about this:
If you left it only to a Principle, then all would be good, but, alas, you added "what the LORD says about dishonesty DOES scare me."
Perhaps if the world was seventh century BC Judah this would be a reason to be scared. A real problem for the Cut & Paste Non Contextual School of Vanity Doctrine student is that in removing the passage from its context the practice allows the student to eisegete whatever substitution fits the vanity teaching of the day.
Micah was a contemporary of Isaiah who was a prophet to Judah. Judah, was made up of a bunch of reprobates who just happened to win the lucky sperm award and were living under the Covenant made to Abraham. Because of that, they, and no other, were subject to benefits/responsibilities of being a "chosen people".
In Deuteronomy 8:5 to the Jews, and again in Hebrews 12:6 to "those of like faith of Abraham" aka "The Church", we learn that those who God considers "sons", or "those He loves" are subject to chastening and to no other. Learn that doctrine. It is consistent throughout God's involvement with the type (OT nation of Israel) and with the fulfillment (the OT/NT spiritual Israel - "the Church").
There is a huge difference between chastening and judgement. Those who are "sons of God", because they are loved are chastened into being worthy images. Those who are not "sons" are not chastened, but all men will be judged at the Last Day. (Rv 20:12-13)
When people imagine a constant pattern of judgement taking place in this Age, they have departed orthodox theology and have moved into the world's religions, as diverse as Islam, the ancient greek/roman Fates and Eastern Karma. Consider:
Rev 6:10-11 And they cried with a loud voice, saying, "How long, O Lord, holy and true, until You judge and avenge our blood on those who dwell on the earth?"... and it was said to them that they should rest a little while longer, until both the number of their fellow servants and their brethren, who would be killed as they were, was completed.
The idea that God allows man to go to the fullness of his rebellion and then is judged is as old as the Garden. The wages of Sin is Death, yet A&E, while bringing death to the world in their sin, didn't physically die until many centuries later. The wicked antedilluvians were permitted to continue until "every intent of the thoughts of his hear was only evil continually." then they were judged.
One of the reasons that the Hebrews were captive in Egypt was that the promised land was not yet ready for them to take because the current inhabitants, the Ammorites, hadn't fully sunk to extreme depravity.(Gen 15:16). What is interesting about that passage is that God already knew and told Abram, through the the evil omen of the unclean birds of prey swooping down on the offering animals that in four hundred years (430 for those actually counting), that his own descendants would be enslaved. God was waiting for both His people to be purified (chastening) while the Ammorites came to the fullness of their sin (judgement).
As you can see, the LORD's idea is wildly different from what you projected into His character.
Well, that’s true, but this article is about nationwide sales reporting that has implications for the larger economy.