Jim Messina's Five Scenarios [for obama's electoral college victory]

NationalJournal ^ | December 13, 2011 | Marc Ambinder

[matt1234]

While Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are looking at each other, President Obama's campaign manager, Jim Messina, is looking at the electoral college. Briefing reporters this morning, Messina laid out five mathematical scenarios where President Obama could under-perform his 2008 watermark and still wind up back in the White House.

Messina assumes a base of John Kerry's electoral votes -- 19 states plus DC.With reapportionment, the Kerry electoral base drops down to 246, from 251.

The Western path assumes victories in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Iowa, giving Obama 272 electoral votes.

The Florida path adds that state's 29 electoral votes -- think Medicare and the senior vote -- to give Obama 275 electoral votes.

The Southern path delights the campaign, which has been trying to expand the Democratic map. The convention will be held in Charlotte, NC -- 15 electoral votes -- and hopes that the general election profile in Virginia is more favorable for Obama than it was in 2008, allowing for a tempering of enthusiasm. With 13 more electorate votes, Obama would wind up with 274.

The Midwestern path seems tough: Obama is regularly losing to his Republican opponents in Ohio head to heads. Obama would narrowly win, getting 276 electoral votes if he kept the Kerry states and added Ohio and Iowa.

The next scenario is Messina's version of expanding the map. Because of immigration and...emigration, the campaign believes Arizona is very much in play. Winning Arizona gives Obama 257 votes, and some breathing room for any of these other scenarios.

Of course, all this assumes that Obama's base -- single women, black voters, Hispanics, younger votes (under 30) and upscale college educated professionals, are fired up and ready to go. Later today, I'll describe why the Obama campaign is confident.

[matt1234]

I question Messina's assumption that obama will win all 19 Kerry states:

CA
CT
DE
HI
IL
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
NH
NJ
NY
OR
PA
RI
VT
WA
WI

[RealImmigrant]

Curious as to what Kenny Loggins 5 scenarios are....

[JLS]

Looking at the 19, I would say the shakiest for the Dims are:

1. WI that was stolen from Bush twice and has a voter ID law now.

2. NH that Bush won in 2000.

3. PA that was very close in 2000 and 2008.

[OrangeHoof]

I would concede those 19 states except for MN, NH, PA and WI but that’s a lot of votes and I don’t see Obama picking off any other states but those unless the GOP nominee is a total failure, which is a distinct possibility.

[BunnySlippers]

People are nuts if they think 2012 is a slam dunk. It may well be another squeaker that we have seen so much of lately.

[IncPen]

Never underestimate the ability of liberals to steal an election.

They stole for Kennedy in 1960, and very nearly for Gore in 2000.

[BunnySlippers]

So very true ...

[Mr. Jeeves]

Because of immigration and...emigration, the campaign believes Arizona is very much in play. Winning Arizona gives Obama 257 votes, and some breathing room for any of these other scenarios.

Just forget that fantasy. Arizona is a Republican lock. Everybody hates Obama here, even a majority of Hispanic-Americans. And the illegals who might have been coerced or bribed to vote for him have largely fled to California or Texas.

[JSteff]

It may well be another squeaker that we have seen so much of lately.

So what the founders thought and planned for is working. They did not want it to be a landslide.. unless it was truly a fitting end to all the campaigns in every state.

The deliberately wanted toss ups to be fought to the end. They wanted the electorate to be sure of their votes. When it did not happen, they wanted the electoral college to be a final arbiter.

So it is working. Don't you just love when a plan comes together?

[BunnySlippers]

Here’s clue. There is a great world of difference between a “squeaker” and a “landslide”.

[matt1234]

Agreed. Also, Maine’s electors don’t vote as a block, so Maine could split.

[RitaOK]

10% is a landslide. Newt is at 12 in the swing states. Now, if you wanna talk election shennanigans and steals that is something else, but the poll watchers this cycle need to be under 75 years of age, for a change, and by several years, preferrably men, for another change. Big surly ones. REALLY big men. With tatoos. LOL!

[JSteff]

Here is a clue... the reasons I gave were accurate. Their system, that they fought and argued for have mostly proven to be right. Whether it was a landslide (Reagan) or squeaker (Bush twice!) the system worked!

They did not arrive at it on a whim. They literally fought and argued about it. Just read the federalist papers and including the letters among the Continental Congress, and various notables for years afterward.

So the system those brave men came up with while not having the benefit of email, telephones, telegraphs, cars, or even air conditioning (or proper heat systems)... and those were cold winters and very hot summers (global warming 225 years ago?!

So despite all that was against them, they came up with a system that has not even been as successfully duplicated by any other country.. EVER. So it worked.

[BunnySlippers]

You allow no room between a squeaker and a landslide. You still don;t know.

[hosepipe]

Not a word about voter fraud..
The democrats have been perfecting it for 30 years.. maybe 50 years..

All the aborted babies have been replaced by Mexican illegals which are proto-democrats..
Not to speak of multiple voting per voter in some districts..

Hopefully american demographic corruption has not reach critical mass..
Zero Obamas handlers have been brilliant, so far..
Cloward-Piven tactics is pure genius..

If the House was smart they would pass voter identification laws fast..

[Sonny M]

They stole for Kennedy in 1960, and very nearly for Gore in 2000.

And tried in 2004 for Kerry.

I'm utterly convinced that they stole Wisconsin, and another state I can't recall off the back of my head. That said, the Bush margin of victory in Ohio was greater then 4 or 5 of Kerry won states combined.........and we have a justice department then to at least minimize the damage, this time, all bets are off.

[pithyinme]

If Romney is the Nominee New Hampshire goes Republican and possibly Maine. If it’s Newt then New Hampshire and Maine stay with Obama.

[C. Edmund Wright]

The Southern route through NC and Virginia? Hah, ain’t gonna happen.
The Kerry 19 won’t happen either.

[Alas Babylon!]

Well, Obama’s Momma sure did dance, didn’t she?

[neverdem]

Arizona is a Republican lock.

I want to see how big the margin is on Election Day. Messina doesn't take account of the Fast and Furious fiasco nor DOJ's taking AZ to court over its illegal alien law.