Skip to comments.Jobless claims at 3.5 year low (drops to 366K)
Posted on 12/15/2011 7:19:36 AM PST by sunmars
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits dropped to a 3-1/2 year low last week and factory activity in New York state scaled a seven-month high in December, more evidence of a pick-up in economic activity.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 366,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the lowest level since May 2008, and confounded economist' expectations for a rise to 390,000.
In a separate report, the New York Federal Reserve said its "Empire State" general business conditions index rose to 9.53 - the highest since May - from 0.61 in December.
The index was boosted by a strong rebound in new orders and an improvement in hiring.
"It all speaks to further stabilization and a very positive trend in the U.S. economy. Stability in the U.S. economy is going to be a vital part of stabilizing global GDP. This comes in a very good time," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.
The unexpected drop in claims last week pushed them closer to the 350,000 mark that analysts say signals labor market strength.
It offered further proof of increased momentum in the pace of economic activity, even though retail sales rose modestly in November. This is in sharp contrast to Europe, where the festering debt crisis has already pushed some economies into recession.
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday acknowledged the improvement in the jobs market, but said unemployment remained high. The jobless rate dropped to a 2-1/2 year low of 8.6 percent in November.
The U.S. central bank said the debt crisis gripping Europe was a big risk to the U.S. economy, which it described as "expanding moderately".
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
It’s a year until the election. They are cooking the books a little early.
Lots of part-time Christmas hires.
There will be a big drop in the January and February numbers.
And, 375,000 is NOT the number who randomly change jobs on average every month.
During the Clinton and Bush excellent years, that number was about 275,000.
So, in reality, jobs are being truly lost in that mix. And, so many actual JOBS have gone away that there are no SLOTS unfilled for economic reasons for workers to return to.
Obama has not just killed employment, he has killed SLOTS due to closed, down-sized, shipped overseas, and bankrupt businesses.
2 words “Christmas Hiring”. Wait until January’s numbers come out. Then “enexpected” will return.
2009 Obama: “I’ve got a way to bring these ‘new unemployment claims’ way down by 2011!
Look, if they don’t have a job then they can’t file for unemployment...”
No jobs = no new unemployment claims- it’s genius!
2 words Christmas Hiring. Wait until Januarys numbers come out. Then enexpected will return.
IF the media bothers to mention it at all. Besides, even in a country this size, you eventually start to run out of people to lay off.
Wait until February, when 2M temporary Christmas jobs disappear.
Gosh if everyone just gave up trying, there would be no unemployment.
At least that’s the way the Obama regime creates the numbers.
Creates. Not calculates.
Don’t get too upset with this report people its “jobless claims” aka claims for unemployment benefits. It has no direct relation to real unemployment. Means more people’s benefits expired then people who had jobs lost them and applied to replace the ones dropping off the unemployment benefit roles.
It does not mean more people have jobs, it does not mean the economy is improving. It really is a meaningless statistic.
The media spin on this is pure garbage. There is a much smaller labor pool to layoff.
As a matter of scale, 366 is still awful.
Jobless claims have dropped because there are so few jobs left to be lost.
It will continue to get better (on paper anyway) through next October.
Then, sometime after the election the ‘adjusted up’ numbers will be revealed.
[I think they will manipulate the UE down to around 6.9% by election day. They have already dropped it about 0.5% just in a couple of months, and they have about 10 more months to play with.]
Jobs are still lost, but we will not see increase in Unemployment %.
Just yesterday, my company terminated 280 jobs all over US, I think that number will add next week unemployment number or may not. Chances are majority of these people may not go for unemployment line.
Yup, and they fail to mention the 3 million who have dropped off the rolls because their benefits have run out.
Note the explanation of the Hussein Heads’ “calculations”....
“Employers have been hiring at only a modest pace. But when applications fall below 375,000 consistently that usually signals that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.”
I bet $10,000 that this number gets quietly revised UPWARD in the coming Weeks.
I own a small business, with 16 employees. I used to have 46 employees, the last few years not being pleasant, but we have survived.
The private sector has been under seige with liberal policies hitting us at every turn. I don’t think my story is atypical, we have survived through hard work, the pain of letting people go, and the adoption of technology to enable efficiency.
We are now lean, and profitable.
The private sector is very, very, resilient and powerful. It’s like a weed, even Obama hasn’t killed us completely. We have re-trenched, and we’re seeing increased consumer activity.
The productivity gains were forced on us, but the productivity gains are there, and this is the reason you haven’t seen the inflation we should be seeing as a result of Obama and Fed policies.
I know one thing for sure-the economy will come back long before you read about it having done so. Econometrics is a rear view mirror only.
I want Obama out as much as any of you, but I’m not so sure we shouldn’t be preparing to defend economic growth that may be occurring, IN SPITE OF Obama. To say they are “cooking the books” may or may not be true, but I’m here to tell you I’m hearing things in retail, commercial real estate, and even construction that defy that conclusion. I could be totally wrong, my evidence is admittedly anecdotal, but something is definitely happening where I am.
There is a tremendous amount of pent-up demand accumulated during this the longest recession in recent memory, and at some point, in spite of the poor tax, regulatory, and investment climate, it could cause somewhat of an uptick, not a boom, but an uptick nonetheless.
We pooh-pooh these economic numbers at our peril, IMHO.
Temp Christmas season hires will be gone in a few weeks and other than adjusting this week’s number upward, which they always seem to do, the numbers will be bad again.
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