Skip to comments.Financial Panic Sweeps Europe As The Head Of The IMF Warns Of A “1930s Depression”
Posted on 12/17/2011 3:23:42 PM PST by blam
Financial Panic Sweeps Europe As The Head Of The IMF Warns Of A 1930s Depression
December 17, 2011
Are we on the verge of another Great Depression? Christian Lagarde, the head of the IMF, said this week that if dramatic action is not taken immediately we could actually see conditions "reminiscent of the 1930s depression" and that no country on earth "will be immune to the crisis". Right now, financial panic is sweeping across Europe, but most Americans are not too concerned about it because they simply don't understand how important the EU is. The truth is that the EU has a much larger population than the United States does. The EU has an economy that is nearly as large as the economies of the United States and China combined.
The EU has more Fortune 500 companies that the United States does, and the banking system of Europe is substantially larger than the banking system of the United States. Anyone out there that believes that a massive financial collapse in Europe would not dramatically affect the rest of the globe is being delusional. The European debt crisis is one of the biggest stories that we have seen in a long, long time and the coming financial meltdown is going to permanently change the global economy.
So far, politicians in Europe have held 19 high-level emergency meetings in an attempt to solve this crisis.
All of their efforts have failed.
Right now, this is the situation in Europe....
-Most EU governments are drowning in toxic levels of debt
-Bond yields have risen dramatically this year and this has caused borrowing costs for most EU members to soar
-In an attempt to get debt under control, governments all over Europe are implementing brutal austerity measures and this is causing European economies to slow down substantially
-There is a tremendous lack of confidence in the European financial system at this point and this is causing a massive credit crunch
-The credit crunch is causing the money supply to drop significantly in almost every nation in the EU
-Major banks all over Europe are massively overleveraged and are on the verge of failing
This is all so similar to what we saw back during the early 1930s.
In fact, things have gotten so bad that prominent world leaders are now using apocalyptic language when describing the situation in Europe.
Just check out what the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, recently said about Europe. Speaking at a State Department conference in Washington D.C. this week, Lagarde made the following very shocking statements....
*"The world economic outlook at the moment is not particularly rosy. It is quite gloomy"
*"There is no economy in the world, whether low-income countries, emerging markets, middle-income countries or super-advanced economies that will be immune to the crisis that we see not only unfolding but escalating"
*"It is not a crisis that will be resolved by one group of countries taking action. It is going to be hopefully resolved by all countries, all regions, all categories of countries actually taking action."
*"No country or region is immune. All must take action to boost growth. Work must start in the eurozone countries and must continue relentlessly. The risks of inaction include protectionism, isolation and other elements reminiscent of the 1930s depression."
*"This is exactly the description of what happened in the 1930s, and what followed is not something we are looking forward to."
But didn't the politicians in Europe recently reach a deal which was supposed to fix all this?
Well, unfortunately the deal basically did nothing to fix the underlying financial problems that Europe is facing.
In fact, global financial markets seem entirely unimpressed by this recent deal. A recent article by Professor Peter Morici detailed some of the problems with the deal....
Investors are rejecting the euro deal, because the agreement does not effectively meet the funding needs of Italy and other Mediterranean governments, address the weak balance sheets of European commercial banks, or fix the underlying structural flaws in the euro architecture.
The 440 billion European Financial Stability Facility is providing short-term fundingguaranteed by 17 Eurozone member states as a wholeto tide over the more troubled governments.
However, those bailouts impose huge cuts in spending and tax increases. Coupled with austerity plans also adopted by France and other healthier European states, those packages are pushing Europe into a recession that could last several years.
What is even worse is that there are signs that this recent deal is already unraveling. Some EU nations have decided that they are not sure that they want to go along with the program.
The following comes from a recent article in the Telegraph....
Amid fresh warnings that Europe is triggering a 1930s-style global depression, the German chancellor faced open rebellion against the key plank of her Brussels accord. The leaders of Hungary and the Czech Republic told a joint conference in Budapest they were ready to reject the planned treaty changes and implied move towards a centralised tax system. Czech prime minister Petr Necas said he was convinced that tax harmonisation would not mean anything good for us.
In Poland, we are actually seeing people march in the streets to protest against this new agreement....
Poles marched under banners that read: We want sovereignty, not the euro. They were protesting against the Brussels deal that could see EU countries, including those outside the eurozone, face penalties for breaking tough centralised spending laws.
So not only does this new deal not address the fundamental problems that Europe is facing, there is also a tremendous amount of doubt about whether or not it will eventually be approved.
Meanwhile, the brutal austerity measures that are being implemented all over Europe are pushing many EU nations into recession.
The EU (led by Germany and France) and the IMF have been pushing financially troubled nations all over Europe to make incredibly deep budget cuts. But these very deep budget cuts have had a devastating economic impact.
In a recent article, I discussed how brutal austerity measures have already pushed the economy of Greece into a full-blown depression....
Just look at what happened to Greece. Greece was forced to raise taxes and implement brutal austerity measures. That caused the economy to slow down and tax revenues to decline and so government debt figures did not improve as much as anticipated. So Greece was forced to implement even more brutal austerity measures. Well, that caused the economy to slow down even more and tax revenues declined again. In Greece this cycle has been repeated several times and now Greece is experiencing a full-blown economic depression. 100,000 businesses have closed and a third of the population is living in poverty. But now Germany and France intend to impose the "Greek solution" on the rest of Europe.
Right now, the flow of government money is drying up all over Europe and so is the flow of money from the banks. European banks are shrinking their balance sheets and have dramatically cut back on lending in order to meet new capital requirements that are being imposed upon them.
All of this has created an environment where there is not much credit flowing in Europe at all. When there is a credit crunch of this magnitude, it causes the money supply to start to shrink. This is already happening all over Europe as a recent article in the Telegraph noted....
All key measures of the money supply in the eurozone contracted in October with drastic falls across parts of southern Europe, raising the risk of severe recession over coming months.
Right now, we are seeing the money supply in each of the "PIIGS" nations fall at a staggering rate. The following comes from the same Telegraph article referenced above....
Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors said "narrow" M1 money which includes cash and overnight deposits, and signals short-term spending plans shows an alarming split between North and South.
While real M1 deposits are still holding up in the German bloc, the rate of fall over the last six months (annualised) has been 20.7pc in Greece, 16.3pc in Portugal, 11.8pc in Ireland, and 8.1pc in Spain, and 6.7pc in Italy. The pace of decline in Italy has been accelerating, partly due to capital flight. "This rate of contraction is greater than in early 2008 and implies an even deeper recession, both for Italy and the whole periphery," said Mr Ward.
Those numbers scream "Recession, Recession, Recession".
There may be one glimmer of hope on the horizon. The Federal Reserve has been lending huge amounts of money to the European Central Bank and the European Central Bank has been lending that money out to European banks. In turn, the European banks have been using much of that money to buy up European government bonds. It is a massive Ponzi scheme, but it has stabilized bond yields in Europe for now. This scheme was described in a recent article by Simone Foxman....
That's because the European Central Bank may have already introduced roundabout measures that will solve some of Europe's big problemsit's making investing in peripheral sovereign debt a huge profit opportunity for banks.
Theoretically, financial institutions will be able coin money by borrowing ultra-cheap from the ECB and buying higher yielding sovereign debt.
Essentially, it appears the ECB might allow European banks to pledge everything but the kitchen sink in return for funds. First, the new policy allows European banks to hold far fewer assets as collateral in exchange for funding from the ECBfreeing up liquidity to the tune of 103 billion ($134 billion). More importantly, relaxing collateral restrictions could also allow European banks to use even somewhat risky sovereign assets as collateral for bond purchases.
But this Ponzi scheme cannot go on indefinitely. A lot of European banks are already starting to run out of collateral for these loans as one Australian news source recently explained....
"If anyone thinks things are getting better, they simply don't understand how severe the problems are," a London executive at a global bank said. "A major bank could fail within weeks."
Others said many continental banks, including French, Italian and Spanish lenders, were close to running out of the acceptable forms of collateral, such as US Treasury bonds, that could be used to finance short-term loans.
Some have been forced to lend out their gold reserves to maintain access to US dollar funding.
So will the European Central Bank keep lending them money once they are out of collateral?
If they do, the ECB itself could potentially be in a great deal of danger.
The truth is that the ECB is already playing with fire. So far, the European Central Bank has spent over 274 billion dollars buying up European government bonds in an attempt to keep bond yields down.
How many toxic assets can the ECB buy up before they get into real trouble?
That is a very interesting question.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world is becoming increasingly concerned about the financial panic that is sweeping Europe.
For example, Australian banks have been given one week to perform a stress test that evaluates their ability to survive in the event of a European financial collapse.
Why all the urgency?
Do they know something that we don't?
Just like back in 2008, we are seeing massive problems at some of the largest banks in the world.
On Thursday, Fitch Ratings downgraded a whole bunch of the world's most prominent banks....
The banks included Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, as well as Europe's Barclays, Societe Generale and BNP Paribas.
Germany's Deutsche Bank and Switerzland's Credit Suisse were also downgraded.
The global banking system is a giant house of cards. There is simply way too much debt, way too much leverage and way too much risk.
On average, major banks across Europe are leveraged 26 to 1.
If the value of the assets held by those banks declines by just 4 percent, they will be wiped out.
Yes, that is how serious things are.
And already we are starting to see major banks fail in Europe.
This week it was revealed that Germany's second largest bank is going to need a bailout. The following comes from a Sky News report....
Germany's second largest bank, Commerzbank, is reportedly in discussions with the German government about a bailout after regulators said it needed to raise more money to cope with a potential default on its loans to governments.
"Intense talks" have been going on for several days, according to sources who spoke to the news agency Reuters.
So if Germany's second largest bank is failing, are any banks in Europe safe?
Just like we saw back during the 1930s, we are starting to see a run on banks all over Europe.
In fact, according to a recent Der Spiegel article, a run on Greek banks has been going on for a while now and is rapidly accelerating....
He means that the outflow of funds from Greek bank accounts has been accelerating rapidly. At the start of 2010, savings and time deposits held by private households in Greece totalled 237.7 billion -- by the end of 2011, they had fallen by 49 billion. Since then, the decline has been gaining momentum. Savings fell by a further 5.4 billion in September and by an estimated 8.5 billion in October -- the biggest monthly outflow of funds since the start of the debt crisis in late 2009.
If you can believe it, approximately 20 percent of all bank deposits in Greece have been withdrawn since the start of 2011.
Europe is in a massive amount of trouble. The euro is dropping like a rock and the European financial system is paralyzed by panic and fear.
It is going to take a miracle to prevent a massive financial collapse from happening in Europe in 2012.
Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any miracles for Europe on the horizon.
Could this be the great transition from socialism to communism that Karl predicted? Europe is much farther down the Cloward-Piven path.
This economist has been writing about the Euro crisis and why it can’t be solved.
He gives lots of charts, also showing how the Fed has no ammo left.
So, I don’t have to panic till 2012. That’s way off next year.
So the only glimmer of hope is throwing more good money after bad? Smells like bullsh*t.
Actually they're throwing bad money after bad. It's all newly-created on Ben Bernanke's say-so. It isn't backed up by any production of tangible goods and then saved by consumers or businesses.
It's just electronic representations of green pieces of paper with clever anti-counterfeiting threads. Those threads are a device to keep us from printing new ones. Our betters have the passcode to bypass it.
Apparently Ms Lagard is always, “the last to know”!
The Globalist Bastards make their play.
Any other time the U.S. would refuse to attend. With Obozo at the helm, the Titanic is listing to port.
Illegal POTUS, Traitorous Bastards in DC, Global Banking Fraud, walking away from unfinished military action. Very Very bad prescription.
Total Meltdown or open military conflict? We shall see.
1. The United States is sending material and jobs to an aggressive oriental country.
2. Financial markets are in turmoil.
3. The dollar is divorced from any reality.
4. The United States government has been politically intervening in all sectors of the economy.
5. The Constitution has been trampled.
6. Favored corporations/banks/cronies have been deemed “too big to fail/prosecute”.
7. Close to 20% of the true workforce is unemployed.
8. Soup kitchens abound (they're called food stamps and unemployment compensation).
9. The Administration, Senate, and half the Supreme Court are in the hands of Marxist traitors.
This looks sooooo familiar.
Hang onto your socks. Great Depression II & WWIII are on our doorsteps!
Are you telling me that spending trillions of fiat dollars on entitlements might not be economically sustainable??
I suppose that will bring in the opportunity for a one world currency they so desire...
It worked so well for the Euro, why not do it planet wide...
Hundreds of hours away.
Looking for the exit. It’s 1861 all over again.
PLUS, The Fed just loaned some bank over $300 billion through the discount window (see charts at this economist’s blog site).
Worry not EU and all the World...Obama will ride to the rescue of the liberal elites, and as for the masses of serfs...be it known, our borders are wide open and welcoming all with unhindered access to the land of plenty, free for all.
“Murphy was an optimist”
A large helping of EUO looks pretty good right now, with a side order of DXD and a little SIJ and SDS for good measure.
Well, if it works... then we stand to be the benificiary of all the European assets they had to hock in order to get our paper ‘money’.
If it doesn’t, we’ll have nothing to show for it.
Sounds like they are trying to talk themselves into a depression.
...gee, that guy is really smart to come to that conclusion. Must be why he is the head of the IMF. The real question is, “What’s he going to do about it?”....Abolish big banks, hand out more free credits, demand more contributions to stop global warming, position to make money off of a depression, punt, just exactly what is his plan?
Considering that the Europeans are cutting their military... I’m not seeing any military actions coming from their quarter.
Now, China may decide that their 1st aircraft carrier’s shakedown cruise might need to be through the Suez Canal and take place in the northern Mediterrean...
“There may be one glimmer of hope on the horizon. The Federal Reserve has been lending huge amounts of money to the European Central Bank “
Hey I have a great idea. Let’s start PhonyCare as soon as possible, fining the _ _ _ _ right out of legal U.S. citizens, and pass that right into the “banking” system pronto. And any so called financial “industry” exposed, let em hike their premiums to __ __ __ __ as a backdoor fine. Hurray!
In the next several years we may once again see war threaten Europe. Those peoples have never been able to keep from each others throats for long.
The EU may have more of everything the US does with the exception of a couple items. GUNS and GUTS. Let those chickhenshit$ grovel. Let those of us who have prepared be spared the indignity of groveling and give us the opportunity to teach those that haven’t prepared a lesson in basic humanity 101. The Marshall Plan 2012 aint happenin’ baby.
Nah, I just keep preparing for ours.
Talk themselves into a depression?
Its been a depression since the dems captured the US congress in ‘07.
The EU has nothing.
The EU is not a nation, nor a single culture, and has no glue to hold it together beyond their resentment and jealousy toward the US.
I've continued to post currency exchange rate information to threads referencing the dire situation in the EU, because there is an utter disconnect between rhetoric and reality.
The Euro closed Friday at $1.3046. Thursday, it was just shy of $1.30. A week prior, it was $1.32 or so, two weeks prior it was $1.349 or so, which was a seven week low. $1.30 does not represent a decline to the lows of 2008 versus the dollar. It represents a decline of just over four cents on the dollar, less than three percent overall since the whole situation appear to begin coming to a head over a month ago.
I've theorized that the Euro will not be allowed to decline below $1.30 by means of massive outside intervention, ie currency manipulation. The other possibility is that the private sector does not see the situation being as dire as the near hysterical news reports would depict.
I honestly don't know, but I'm watching closely. Statements such as the one I excerpted are routinely being proved wrong thus far, for whatever reason. The Euro has not dropped like a rock.
Speaks like the idiot leftist hack all Obama's people are.
In the next several years we may once again see war threaten Europe.........
Indeed, but it wont be from external forces it’ll be from the radical Islamic immigrants. What the Islamists couldn’t accomplish in Gall will be enjoined and accomplished in Liverpool, Amsterdam, Stockholm, and Munich before 2015.
If we want to experience the same here in the US we just need to tolerance the goings-on in Dearborn, Toledo, and other nodes of Islamic footfall.
And so, with a hearty approbation, I endorse Mr Newt Gingrich for President 2012. Let them eat dates.
>> “Total Meltdown or open military conflict?” <<
First act of this play will be an attempt to introduce a global currency, but the upcomming US election dictates that will fail. Obama cannot hand the GOP that big of an advantage in the election, so wars may be the reality.
IMFs Lagarde Says Downside Risks Are High for Global Economic Recovery
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said downside risks are high for the world economy.
Were in it together and we will be able to solve it together, Lagarde said in an interview on Bloomberg Television with Tom Keene. Growth has slowed, the downside risks are high.
Lagarde said she will try to instill a sense of urgency at the IMFs annual meetings this week.
This is how elites panic: in slow motion, thoughtfully, with an air of assurance. But for our money, it's still panic. They're out of control, grasping for a solution, coming up short repeatedly. They're starting to get desperate, but haven't cast pretenses to the wind quite yet.
guess they’re “starting to cast pretenses to the wind.”
That is the final line from “Fred’s Law”.
Are you Fred?
I knew Fred in NM.
They have been warning us that we need to sacrifice America to save Europe but the average America doesn't buy into it.
So they are working extra hard to make their predictions come true.
If the US wants to remain a great power it cannot have an EU. Look how Europe treated the US as they tried to unite. They criticize our insufficient programs to help the poor, or not spend enough on education, environment and etc. They would not hesitate to unite with other nations to mandate costly policies on US in order to cut our super power status down in the name of internationalism. Most important the EU infiltrated our MSM and colleges with pro socialist viewpoints to make the US less efficient and its power encumber by EU type costs/policies in order to bring us down to their level. Reason, the EU politicians know they cannot reduce the burdensome socialist programs that hobble their economic growth, so in order to chop the US down, they use their socialist agents of influence in the US to get big gov to adopt burdensome EU type policies to bring us down to their level of inefficiency. Let the EU die. That will only leave the US to face China, Russia, India and Brazil and not have a treacherous EU covering our back.
China? probably not.
Iran/Venezuela they might try. AdamidaCrazy and Chubby Hugo are egomaniacs.
Iran & Calif, yep. If Obozo succeeds in destroying the U.S. Military first.
They can forget selling the AGW Scam. That is out in the open and cannot be re-canned.
The OAS has been exposed as a pack of Commies. The UN revealed themselves at the latest Conference on GloBull Warming.
The U.S. public will not accept any of that nonsense.
I don’t even think they will eat the poison pill of ObozoCare.
Martial Law? Don’t think they have enough goons to do it here. Possibly in some metro area, but not TX.
There are other options. I fear being forced into a 3rd party to defend us. Not Good. Very Bad. Results of that could lead to a civil war. Re-election of Obozo by 3rd party and Fraud (his normal MO) would lead to rebellion.
The path out is to take total control of the Republican Party and right the ship. Big Order.
Germany is one of the most anti- American countries in Europe.
They keep meeting regarding the Monetary crisis repeatedly. However, they seem only to be concerned about the color of the band-aid to place on the wound, rather than treating the problem.
Handel set that psalm to music in Act 3 of “The Messiah”. I’ll be doing an analysis of that work in next Friday’s FReeper Canteen with examples from Hogwood’s 1982 live recording from Westminster Abbey. Stay tuned.
“So, I dont have to panic till 2012. Thats way off next year.”
I had to laugh at your post made about this serious situation.
My guess is you are prepared to handle it. So am I.
My dad, a chemical & electrical engineer, claimed to have coined that phrase. Since he is now deceased I can’t ask him what year he coined it. It does seem like a phrase that could be co-coined (is that a word). However, he did testify in a lot of investigative engineering & legal cases and before legislatures as an expert witness. Everything from electronics, explosions & building failures. Some pretty big cases all over the US. came in contact with a lot of engineers who received the benifit of his humor.
Dad was shown one of the first transistors when the CIA was trying to recruit him. I didn’t think to ask him if that was before or after Roswell:)
No, Im not Fred
My friend “Fred” was a senior research physicist at Johns Hopkins. When I met him he had made some money in Real Estate and kind of dropped out back in NM.
Very bright guy.
It is possible he met your father at some point in time.
I met Fred in the early to mid 1980’s. He was a Ham friend.