Skip to comments.Debunking PPP in Iowa
Posted on 12/19/2011 7:10:48 AM PST by TBBT
Ive been telling people PPPs polling Iowa was making nonsense predictions. The pollster has doubled down.
Im going way out on a limb here, and if the actual results refudiate what Im saying then Im going to have to take some taunting, but I just dont see how this poll remotely reflects reality, and Im flatly saying its not predictive of the caucus results.
The facts: 597 LVs, no mention of mobile handling. MoE 4.
The results of this poll are going to get huge play. While they predict less for Mitt Romney than the apparent Rasmussen outlier for Romney, PPP seems to show an apparent rush of support from Newt Gingrich to, well, every other candidate. Six candidates are in double figures, three at precisely ten: Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum tie for fourth. Gingrich comes in third at 14, his lowest Iowa poll result in six weeks. Mitt Romney checks in at 20, and Ron Paul finishes first at 23. Between the Paul lead and the Gingrich crash, this poll will generate lots of web hits for PPP.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
PPP came out in their last poll tweeting the day before that Perry was in double digits. The next day they released the poll at 9 pm and Perry was at 9%
PPP is a joke. It is the least reliable in my opinion. I don't know why RCP uses them instead of ARG in their polling data for the RCP Average.
Creating “reality” is what it’s all about. What is or is not reported drives the masses in the direction the overlords desire. Resistance is futile, report for reprograming.
Seems The Left has it’s new plan in operation: get Ron Paul nominated. Talk about an easy target to destroy! If there is anyone “zany” in the field, it’s Ron Paul. No wonder they want him to win. Even he could make Obama look good by comparison - and that’s almost impossible.
RCP has Romney 20.9% Paul 19.9% Paul could be leading with the margin of error. He has been going after Gingrich hard in ads Romney is next. People have had it with the Establishment.
PPP, or Public Policy Polling is well named. It is owned and operated by the Democrat party (truly) and it’s purpose is to create public policy. It is a propagada machine designed to coerce and manipulate voters into voting for the supposed front runner, and drive voters away from the candidate the Democrats fear the most, i.e. Newt.
Giving RUN Paul numbers like this, especially after his dismal performance in the debate and following interviews, is purely a gift. There is no way, that Iowa is that far off the chart to the Left among Republicans. If the election were held even today, Paul would come in nearly last.
The Paul cult is swarming Iowa right now, being bussed in and around, in order to give the illusion that their Kook-in-chief is a winning candidate. Other states and Polls, prove me to be correct.
What planet did you say you were from? Paultardia?
They were looking at RCP Iowa Caucus polling results.
Here is Rasmussen from 12/15:
Iowa: Romney 23%, Gingrich 20%, Paul 18%
This seems not so far off from the PPP poll, in that Paul is doing very well.
Ron Paul’s statement n Iran made me wince. However - despite that - i am still going to vote for him in the primary and A B O in the GE
I truly hate to break it to you, but the race is near enough to the margin of error.
Newt, Romney and Paul are all tied for first. It is a matter of turnout. Ron Paul brings younger and more liberal supporters. Romney brings older establishment types. Newt splits this, and brings a little from each group.
Perry, Santorum and Bachmann are also tied and one of them will get 4th place and play in New Hampshire, the other two will be done.
If Paul wins, expect him to raise another 4 million for NH and SC. If he does win, it will be because 10,000 Democrat “Occupiers” showed up. Iowa Caucuses have instant registration. So anyone can show up with an Iowa ID and vote. Even lifelong Democrats, as long as they do have proof they live in the precinct.
This threat is very very very real.
Even mr obama has not blamed America for 9-11 yet, that cant be said for the traitor paul!
Who would actually answer these calls and give information?
The left’s promoting that crackpot as much as possible right now. They tried to paint the GOP as “Tea Party” and it failed because mainstream America identifies with the Tea Party ideology. So now they are trying to identify the libertarian crackpot Paul as GOP. Then the crackpot's cult blindly pump dollars into his campaign so that he can smear serious GOP candidates across the board, from true conservative to RINO. It is a Democrat dream.
Time for the GOP to tell that nut to take a hike..... permanently. He can run on a Kook Fringe Party ticket.
“Who would actually answer these calls and give information?”
Paul cult, that’s who. This time of year, mainstream Americans are preparing for Christmas and don’t want to be bothered.
I don't just hang up. After all, the caller is some minimum-wage peon just trying to make a living. I tell them I never answer telephone polls, politely thank them, and then hang up.
On those rare occasions when they ask me why I don't answer polls, I tell them I'm a professional statistician, and I know how meaningless they are. Which is all true.
I don’t know if PPP is reliable or not, but Gov. Branstad was throwing a VERY large hint a week or two ago on TV that Paul was in a great position to take Iowa.
Since pollsters don’t call cell phones..and most kids don’t have land lines..I would guess that Paul is ahead and maybe ahead by a substantial number.