Skip to comments.European Civilization: Not Dead Yet (Encouraging Demographic Trend.)
Posted on 12/19/2011 9:52:16 PM PST by dangus
To those who've declared European civilization dead due to demographics, I've often replied that in Europe, there are ents. In J.R.R. Tolkein's "The Lord of the Rings" series, ents were extremely long-lived tree-like creatures who thought in terms of centuries, not years. They were painfully slow to act, but amazingly forceful when they do.
What we're witnessing in Europe is a rebound of birth rates that is slow and incomplete, yet highly significant and growing. These rebounding birth rates are not due to Islamic and African immigrants. In many nations, the number of Islamic immigrants is much lower than perceived by Americans; in England, for instance, it's only 2.4%. In other nations, the number is higher, but Muslims do not have higher fertility rates than natives, such as in France and Russia. These are the three major nations with birth rates at or above 2.0 (For a population to hold stable for long periods of time, the fertility rate must be roughly at or slightly over 2.)
Looking at fertility rate statistics, the nations of Europe seem to group themselves into three groups:
1. Those nations whose fertility rates are already back to healthy levels capable of sustaining populations. Most of these nations are in Northern and Western Europe, bordering the North Atlantic.
2. Those nations whose fertility rates have been frighteningly low, but have *begun* to rebound towards healthy levels. Most of these nations are in Southern and Eastern Europe.
3. Those nations whose fertility rates are critically low, and not yet significantly moving towards healthy levels.
In the first group:
* Iceland, whose fertility rate was 1.93 children per woman, but is up to 2.23.
* Ireland, whose fertility rate grew from 1.86 in 1994 and 2005 to 2.07 in 2009.
* The United Kingdom, whose fertility rate grew from 1.63 in 2001 to 2 in 2009.
* France's grew from roughly 1.75 throughout the 1970s to about 2 in 2009.
* Sweden's had crashed to 1.5 for a decade around 1980, to 2.02 in 2010.
* Belgium's was roughly 1.6 for most of the 1980s, but is back to near 2 (1.93) by 2010.
* Denmark's was about the lowest in Europe during the 1980s, when it's fertility rate was only about 1.4, but is back up to 1.87
* Norway's was 2 in 2010.
* Finland's grew from about 1.5 in the late 1990s to about 1.9 in 2010.
In the second group:
* Bulgaria's was the lowest in Europe by the late 1990s, reaching only 1.09, about the lowest ever recorded for any nation. Since them, Bulgaria's fertility rate has grown almost 50%, to 1.57 in 2009.
* Lithuania's birth rate collapsed late, reaching only 1.27 in 2005, but springing back up to 1.55 in only 5 years.
* Russia, the giant of European nations, had seen its birth rate plunge to 1.17, but recover to 1.54.
* Greece's had declined to 1.18 by 1995, but has slowly risen since then to 1.52
* The Ukraine's had collapsed 1.10 in 2002, but in had risen back to 1.48 by just seven years later. The key factor has been Ukranians choosing life. In 1980, 1.197 million Ukranians chose to kill their babies; by 2008, that number had dropped more than 85% to only 143,000.
* Spain's fertility rate was only 1.15 in 1997, but back to 1.46 in 2009.
Some nations are yet to improve that much:
* Poland's fertility rate collapsed very recently for a European nation, reaching its lowest pits of 1.22 in 2002 to 1.25 in 2005. But it was back up to 1.4 in 2009. The rate may be very low due to the largest number of young adults working outside of the country.
* Romania's fertility rate as 1.25 in 2002 and still as low as 1.3 in 2007. It showed some signs of growth, reaching 1.39 by 2009, only to decline again in 2010.
* Germany's fertility rate improved slightly between 1.24 in 1994 to 1.38 in 2000, but has been stagnant since then.
* Hungary's fertility rate is near its all-time low, 1.32.
For comparison, here are some birth rates of major Islamic Mediterranean, Arab and Persian nations:
Albania, 1.56 down from 4.00 in 1981
Algeria, 2.31 down from 6.76 in 1981
Libya, 2.63 down from 7.31 in 1981
Egypt 2.78 down from 6.58 in 1963
Turkey, 2.11 down from 6.00 in 1963
Tunisia, 2.04 down from 7.23 in 1963
Syria, 3.00 down from 7.57 in 1970
Iran, 1.70 down from 6.52 in 1982
Saudi Arabia, 2.89 down from 7.25 in 1980.
Oman, 2.38 down from 8.34 in 1983.
(I include these simply to show that the European birth rates aren't being dominated by Muslims; abortion is murder, every bit as much as when Muslims abort their baby. Thankfully, a large portion of this decline is due simply to the end of artificially inflated fertility levels.)
To understand how dramatic these numbers, keep in mind that they are based on children per woman, not children per woman of child-bearing years. So the full effect of reversals in birth rates could take decades to be fully realized in fertility rates. European birth rates are stabilizing despite a plunging fertile population, while Islamic birth rates are plunging despite a soaring fertile population.
Perhaps the rise in European birth rates are due to Muslims having children?
Numerous Moslem countries are above 2.2. And no, abortion is not allowed under islam.
Kindly read the article.
2.2 would presume a 10% death rate among juveniles, which is low for some African nations, but several times higher than any European nation. In fact, I’ve never seen higher than 2.1 used; In Europe, 2.03 would probably be too high.
As I mentioned, given the heavy skewing of the Middle Eastern and North African populations towards young, fertile people, further fertility rate declines are pretty much locked in among the Muslims.
The thing is, even if they ramped up to a 4.0 birth rate...the years of the too-low birth rates are going to cause tremendous problems. They have a huge hole in their demographics. when the last of the fecund era hits retirement age, there will be economic calamity. Its like our baby boom generation only worse.
The first group of nations, except for iceland, have good economies. Iceland weent into a depression, but I think it is improving now.
yes, europeans have a very low childhood death rate. But they also have a very long effective childhood. In the middle east it takes less than 20 years for a female to begin producing babies. In europe, more than 30 years.
“Perhaps the rise in European birth rates are due to Muslims having children?”
It is, of course. But some people like to spew pro-Islam propaganda (without links) and tell us they’re not a problem, and are not a major factor...yet half of the births (or more, now) in Amsterdam, for example, are to Muslim parents.
Wow, I'm spewing pro-Islam propaganda? I can't help notice you're too passive-aggressive to write that to me directly.
So here's your data: Yes, the fertility rates of Muslims in Britain is still higher than that of the British. But Muslims comprise only 2.7% of the British population and only 0.8% of the Irish population. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland#Religions http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom#Religion
In Russia, they comprise a far larger share of the population, but their birth rates are actually far lower than the Christian Russian population, and they are converting away from Islam in large numbers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Russia
According to the 2002 Census, 9.96% of the Russian population belongs to ethnic groups which had traditionally practiced Islam (such as Tatars, Bashkirs, Chechens and Azeris). However the actual number of Muslims is expected to be much lower than this amount, due to the existence of a large number of Christian congregations among these groups (Keräşens and Nağaybäks among Tatars, Mozdok Christians among Kabardians, etc. According to Vyacheslav Sanin, one-third of Adzharians, 25% each of Tatars and Adyghe and more than 10% of Kazakhs living in Russia practice Christianity, with many more being atheist). The number of Muslims among other ethnic groups is believed to be much smaller, amounting to only a few thousand. Most of the Russian sources give a figure of around 6% of the total population based on surveys,I don't know if your source is wrong, but Amsterdam is probably like a lot of American cities in having a "predominantly minority" population. Consider Sweden, where Malmo has become a virtually Shariah police state, the Muslims are such a dominant group. And yet only 106,000 Swedes are registered Muslims, out of about 500,000 Swedes from Muslim extraction (6% of the total population.)
That’s why demographers use children born per woman, rather than children born per fertile woman; it makes the data trail for decades, but reduces the effect on overall population growth of the age of the mother at childbirth: This way, it doesn’t matter if the woman giving birth is 15 or 40, a woman will still give birth to x number of children in her life. But birth rates in Europe are still statistically depressed by 60-year-old women who never had kids. It also makes it very impressive that fertility rates have plunged so far in North Africa and the Middle East, since such a high proportion of the women in those regions are still fertile.
And to be clear, 500,000 (those from traditionally Muslim ethnic grous) is 6% of the population; practicing Muslims (those registered in a mosque) are only 1.5% of the population.
These are encouraging statistics as long as the Europeans are not Islamicized by PC education.
Contrarily, suppose a country like Russia or Italy has had a very low fertility rate. The population of 60-year-olds greatly exceeds the population of 20-year-olds. Those 60-year-olds have already lost their chance to procreate. But they still weigh in the fertility rates, so for the fertility rates to reach the stability level (slightly above 2), the 20-year-olds will need to make up for the childlessness of the 60-year-olds. Of course, this means that the previous fertility plunge was o-so devestating, but that the recovery is further along than it may appear.
In both cases, the reverses in fertility rates is far more dramatic than would appear, because the denominator includes all women, but the numerator is produced only by fertile women.
The ents are waking up. David Cameron is not an ent, but he is made politically safe by the ents. This news would have been unthinkable a few short years ago:
i've lived in Warsaw for about 18 months now and have travelled quite extensively around Poland and there is a baby boom -- I see a lot of families with two, three or more kids (though the norm is three). The reason for the low number is because millions of Poles went to the UK, France, Germany etc. to work for better pay and even now, though the job situation is better, many do go abroad and it is an aim for many (hence the large number of szkoły jężykowe (language schools) teaching English, German, Spanish and French.
it depends on which countries, but it’s not all Moslem...
Not really. They did not have such a sharp drop (except for Bulgaria), but a gradual drop down. The drop was not as sharp as Japan or China’s.
Iceland’s population is just about 200,000 — so the growth or decline in % terms will always be more affected by a hundred more or less births than in other countries
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