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Newt leads nationally but what does it matter? (Newt-35, Mitt-22, Paul-11, Bachmann-7, Perry-4)
PPP ^ | 12/20/2011 | PPP

Posted on 12/20/2011 9:41:14 AM PST by TBBT

It's been a bad week for Newt Gingrich in our early state Republican polling, but we still find him with a good sized lead nationally. He's at 35% to 22% for Mitt Romney, 11% for Ron Paul, 7% for Michele Bachmann, 6% for Rick Perry, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

On the surface that's good news for Gingrich but looking under the hood it's more bad news to some extent. We haven't done a national poll in 5 weeks, too long ago to make a good comparison, but on 6 state polls we've conducted since Thanksgiving in Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico Newt has always had a lead of at least 19 points over Romney with the average of those polls coming out to a 27 point advantage at 42-15. His present national lead represents some serious shrinkage from that. He's also seen a 13 point decline in his net favorability from our last national poll, going from +45 (68/23) to +32 (60/28).

The most interesting finding in this national poll might be that Romney's net favorability has improved 15 points in the last month from just +9 (48/39) to now +24 (55/31). Republican voters are starting to warm up to him in a way that could pave his path to the nomination. Beyond that Romney is clearly next in line to take the national lead if Gingrich continues to falter.

Not only is he 11 points clear of Paul, his closest competitor, but he's the 2nd choice of 35% of Gingrich voters compared to 16% for Bachmann, 11% for Perry and Santorum, and only 6% for Paul. If Newt's people keep jumping ship they're likely to end up with Romney.

(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; bachmann; election; georgia; gingrich; huntsman; iowa; paul; perry; poll; polls; ppp; romney; santorum; tennesee; tennessee; wyoming
Newt leads nationally but what does it matter?

Yes. That is the headline PPP crafted for it's own poll.
1 posted on 12/20/2011 9:41:19 AM PST by TBBT
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To: TBBT

Kind of curious.

Have you ever posted anything other than pro Newt or anti everyone else postings?


2 posted on 12/20/2011 9:43:19 AM PST by cripplecreek (Stand with courage or shut up and do as you're told.)
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To: TBBT

National polls don’t matter a bit. Ask Rudy Giuliani.

The primary and caucus winners get a boost, and then the next state to vote can either confirm or repudiate the result.

Iowa and NH often disagree, and then SC decides between the two, or occasionally goes in another direction, and keeps one more candidate alive.

Super Tuesday then accelerates things.

This year, Nevada and Florida will also vote before Super Tuesday, so we could see three different winners among all of the early states.


3 posted on 12/20/2011 9:46:16 AM PST by Retired Greyhound (.)
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To: TBBT

Many PPP election polls were commissioned by the liberal website Dailykos, although the company states that most of its revenue comes from other sources.


4 posted on 12/20/2011 9:46:20 AM PST by jessduntno (The Republican elite hates him, Rove hates him, Boehner hates him, liberals hate him. It's Newt!)
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To: TBBT

Newt is doing well, all considered. He is taking the punches from the radical lefitst media, and dealing it back at the right time too. IMHO, he is the ONLY front-runner that can dish it out, and is not afraid to.

The complicit media, along with the DemoRat socialist party, is used to handing it out in their favor, but is not used to getting back in their faces. Frankly, I hope Newt takes the nomination and gives it to them full force. Along with taking on Obama, toe-to-toe and showing him for who and what he is.

Certainly Romney will not do it. He will pander and cower under the Obama-media machine. And he is not a conservative, even though he says he is -— RomneyCare anyone?

Go Newt!


5 posted on 12/20/2011 9:47:11 AM PST by EagleUSA
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To: TBBT

Before even a single vote is cast, what do any polls mean? Fodder for the pundits and talking heads, mostly.


6 posted on 12/20/2011 9:47:15 AM PST by bigbob
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To: TBBT

Will the term “outlier” now find it’s way into the daily reporting?

Will this confuse the narrative that Newt is in a free fall?


7 posted on 12/20/2011 9:50:21 AM PST by TBBT
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To: jessduntno

I believe that PPP is a Democratic polling Company for the DNC!


8 posted on 12/20/2011 9:50:33 AM PST by tallyhoe
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To: TBBT

Romney has been stuck at 25% or less in every poll taken since the day he was born, no matter how hard they try to ram him down our throats.

It continues to baffle the inside-the-Beltway intelligentsia.

We’re just not that into their boy Mitty.


9 posted on 12/20/2011 9:50:41 AM PST by Yankee (ANNOY THE RNC: NOMINATE NEWT GINGRICH!)
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To: bigbob

***Before even a single vote is cast, what do any polls mean? Fodder for the pundits and talking heads, mostly.***

Horse races require a daily racing form.

The media has something on which to base their random acts of asinine.

Supporters need a daily fix of comfort. (guilty)

Detractors don’t believe polls until their candidate is surging. (guilty)

Others are the like tricoteuse during the French Revolution.


10 posted on 12/20/2011 9:57:15 AM PST by sodpoodle ( Newt - God has tested him for a reason..)
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To: Yankee

I think Mittens’ nickname ought to be “23 Skidoo”.

He has spent five years running for President and polling at 23%.

He’s outa here!


11 posted on 12/20/2011 9:59:06 AM PST by rogue yam
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To: All; Retired Greyhound
That's the best take I've seen on things and it's a bit scary.

Romney has Nevada and likely NH locked up. Crazy Iowa could go Paul which they could never live down and, imo, enhance the case for doing away with "tradition."

If Newt is to stay viable, it looks like SC is a "must win" early and FL could go his way but if it goes to Romney, I fear a snowball effect to his benefit.

We know from the Rudy attempt, you can't "start" a campaign in FL.

Even with proportional primaries, I don't see this contest lasting beyond March.

12 posted on 12/20/2011 10:01:34 AM PST by newzjunkey (Republicans will find a way to reelect Obama and Speaker Pelosi.)
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To: TBBT
IA = Newt top two

NH = Newt top two

SC = Newt 1st

FL = Newt 1st

13 posted on 12/20/2011 10:04:22 AM PST by CainConservative
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To: TBBT
IA = Newt top two

NH = Newt top two

SC = Newt 1st

FL = Newt 1st

14 posted on 12/20/2011 10:04:38 AM PST by CainConservative
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To: TBBT

Only PPP can make a 35 point lead seem like a bad thing.

(Their Iowa Propaganda campaign thingie ain’t workin’ out for them.)


15 posted on 12/20/2011 10:05:05 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: TBBT
Nancy flashed

Her Depends

At Newtie

He's been at ends

Since he saw

Her booty


16 posted on 12/20/2011 10:05:31 AM PST by Iron Munro ("Don't pick a fight with an old man. If he is too old to fight he'll just kill you." John Steinbeck)
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To: TBBT

Oops..sorry for the double.


17 posted on 12/20/2011 10:06:03 AM PST by CainConservative
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To: TBBT
Lookin' at millions under a circus tent

Watchin' a jackass chase a dumb pachyderm

Oh what a show!

- "Rise Up", Jeremy Hoop

18 posted on 12/20/2011 10:13:33 AM PST by FlingWingFlyer (Stop BIG Government Greed Now!!!!)
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To: newzjunkey

I don’t think Nevada is locked up for Romney. We have the worst numbers in the nation regarding the depression.

Nevadans are looking for answers.


19 posted on 12/20/2011 10:15:06 AM PST by Dogbert41 (Romney/Brown 2012. Yeah, I know. Can we get real now?)
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To: newzjunkey

Newt is much stronger in Iowa that you think. The latest polling is a scam and is false. It has been skewed by the Paultards, spamming the straw polls. Just wait till the actual voting starts. All the Paulista spam monkies in the world can’t manipulate the true outcome.


20 posted on 12/20/2011 10:15:25 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: sodpoodle
Horse races require a daily racing form.

The media has something on which to base their random acts of asinine.

Supporters need a daily fix of comfort. (guilty)

Detractors don’t believe polls until their candidate is surging. (guilty)

Others are the like tricoteuse during the French Revolution.


Polls are used as tools. Not to report reality, but to create a (desired) reality. Poll reporting creates perceptions and momentum. Headlines and narratives are based on them. They'll converge on reality as we draw closer to election day to persevere their reputation. This far out though, it's all about manipulation.
21 posted on 12/20/2011 10:17:09 AM PST by TBBT
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To: Dogbert41

Romney won’t win Nevada. Newt will. And even Utah, Romney will get trounced.


22 posted on 12/20/2011 10:17:16 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: TBBT

But you repeat myself;) LOL!!

Random acts of asinine - by the media - to get the desired results.


23 posted on 12/20/2011 10:20:49 AM PST by sodpoodle ( Newt - God has tested him for a reason..)
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To: TBBT

lol

BOOM!

Go Newt!


24 posted on 12/20/2011 10:25:44 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Newt Gingrich 2012!)
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To: TBBT

Simple, Iowa will go to Paul and show their irrelevance. Oh, the insider money that’s being wasted.


25 posted on 12/20/2011 10:36:08 AM PST by Steamburg (The contents of your wallet is the only language Politicians understand.)
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The question should be:

“Iowa Caucus, what does it matter?”

It’s meaningless. It should be ignored.


26 posted on 12/20/2011 10:44:33 AM PST by D-fendr (Deus non alligatur sacramentis sed nos alligamur.)
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To: TBBT

This is a problem for Gingrich. The game is to outperform expectations in the early primaries and build on that as others drop out. Candidates who poll well nationally often lose support to the early performers and never make it to those states where they are polling well (early).

Gingrich will have to lower expectations in Iowa and NH or a 3rd place finish could start the slide.


27 posted on 12/20/2011 10:47:55 AM PST by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
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To: TBBT
It doesn'ty matter at all. National polls in primary season are meaningless. Even worse when conducted by a polling agency that is practically an arm of the DNC and would be only too happy to sow some confusion, fear and frustration among GOP voters.

The entire political landscape will change following the Iowa caucuses. Not counting Ron Paul, whoever comes in first and second, (or second and third if Paul comes in 1st, or 1st and 3rd if Paul comes in 2nd, etc) will be catapulted to the top in the next round of national polls...at least until NH!

28 posted on 12/20/2011 10:51:43 AM PST by pgkdan ("Make what Americans buy, Buy what Americans make, and sell it to the world" Perry 2012)
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To: TBBT

Newt is not conservative. He is a LIBERAL. Look at his voting record.

I know he did a good thing once, in getting a balanced budget. How long did he last?


29 posted on 12/20/2011 11:17:21 AM PST by geologist (The only answer to the troubles of this life is Jesus. A decision we all must make.)
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To: cripplecreek

What is wrong with posting articles favorable to the candidate you support? There are pro-Romney, pro-Perry, pro-Bachmann posts on here all the time. If you don’t like a particular candidate and hate to see favorable articles then simply pass them by and move on to some other article.


30 posted on 12/20/2011 11:53:22 AM PST by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
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To: Russ

I just don’t like to see people manipulated by seminar posters.

If Newt wants to attack other candidates he should grow a pair and do it instead of relying on surrogates.


31 posted on 12/20/2011 11:58:06 AM PST by cripplecreek (Stand with courage or shut up and do as you're told.)
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To: geologist

He has a 90% ACU lifetime voting record that is not Liberal.


32 posted on 12/20/2011 2:04:53 PM PST by Leto (Damn shame Palin didn't run, The Presidency was Her's for the taking)
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To: newzjunkey

I think we may have a good sense of who will win by March, but there will still probably be three candidates until the convention; Romney, Non-Romney (Bachmann, Perry, or Newt), and Paul.

There is no good reason for Paul to get out, even if he is way behind. He’ll have his support in every state. Romney and a Non-Romney will duke it out. The remaining Non-Romney’s will have dropped out by then.


33 posted on 12/20/2011 3:14:21 PM PST by Retired Greyhound (.)
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To: TBBT; bigbob; CainConservative; D-fendr; Dogbert41; EagleUSA; FlingWingFlyer; geologist; ...
As we get closer and closer to IOWA, most of these polls are turning to sh*t-push polls. I think PPP is the most accurate.

Note the CBS poll has a whopping 36% undecided, so it is trash.
Note the ABC poll keeps secret how many people they counted, so it is trash. I will assume they asked 100 people for weighting purposes.

Note the CNN poll says "436 A" and just like the last several CNN polls, it is as strongly biased toward Romney as it could possibly be without many people screaming 'bullsh*t'.

And I won't count the Gallup poll again until they come to a full set of 5 days in a row that include totally new data, which will be Dec 17th-21st.
...oh, and PS: Gallup has gotten VERY secretive about the internals of their poll, which is another sign it is fudge.

So then PPP poll (which HAS seemed quite accurate for several months) and has the largest sample size, AND it uses Likely Voters, is probably close to correct. But Karl Rove will call it an "outlier" on Fox n Friends.

Note who has been doing the loudest bad-mouthing lately, (Romney, Perry, and Bachmann) and the directions their weighted rolling averages have turned.


IMO, Gingrich never REALLY dipped as close to Willard as this chart would imply, but the lyin' MSM polls made it look that way.


.

with new PPP, CNN, ABC, and CBS polls added ...


Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest
20+ Polls listed at RCP   [as of Dec 21st]
plus
YouGov polls 12/10, 12/3, 11/26 11/19, 11/12, 11/5, 10/29, 10/22, 10/15, 10/08, &
Poll Position 12/11, 12/04, 11/27, 11/22, 11/8, 11/1 polls inserted chronologically


Gingrich=29.6%	Romney=23.9%	Paul=11.9%	Bachmann=6.7%	Perry=6.3%	Santorum=3.8%	Huntsman=2.3%	



[...it may be that this chart has grown beyond the capabilities of FR's posting??? If so, see my profile page for the chart.]

(Example methodology for this chart will be on my profile page)


Much like what the government does with unemployment statistics, this chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20+ polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com (plus other recent national polls).

I also weighted the polls by their size. For example, a poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.





(Gingrich-haters, please do not address or reply to me.)


34 posted on 12/21/2011 2:30:46 AM PST by Future Useless Eater (Chicago politics = corrupted capitalism = takeover by COMMUNity-ISM)
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To: David Axelrod



Gallup also "conveniently skipped" ALL data from Thursday Dec 15th.
That was the day when LOTS of media attention was focused on Newt's superior debating skills,
and the day of his strong performance in the debate.


Best in debate against Obama? Posted on December 13, 2011

Best in debate against Obama?

A majority of Americans think Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich would fare best in a head-to-head television debate against President Barack Obama. In a Poll Position national scientific telephone survey, 54% said Gingrich would give Obama the best debate, 20% thought Mitt Romney would do the best. All other GOP candidates received single digit votes when asked how they would fare against Obama in a TV debate.

35 posted on 12/21/2011 2:33:20 AM PST by Future Useless Eater (Chicago politics = corrupted capitalism = takeover by COMMUNity-ISM)
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To: Rahm Emanuel



There is an important "trick" to remember about most MSM polls as we we get closer to these first eleven state contests... (most of them are lying)

One recent poll highlighted something VERY IMPORTANT,,, I had overlooked before.

Take a look and see if you see what it is...

If you were voting today in the 2012 Republican primary for president, which one of the following candidates would you favor? (asked of Republicans, Republican Leaners, and Independents)



take your time, look it over again and see if you catch it...

ok...

give up?

...

Here is what it is...

MOST of the polls being 'fed' to us include the magical 'Republican leaners'
but WHO exactly is a 'Republican leaner?'. Think about that...
They are NOT Registered Republicans, or they would be included under "Republican"
They are NOT Registered Independents, or they would be included under "Independents"
They must be partially (A) 'Rats' that 'might' be willing to vote for a Republican in the GENERAL election.
And partially (B) people who are not yet registered at all, and probably won't until October.
(by my estimate that group is ~70% 'RAT's, because they are SO MUCH more certain of whom they prefer than even Registered Republicans)


But regardless... it makes almost no sense to be including them in the polls leading up to the NOMINATION because almost all early states have CLOSED primaries or caucuses.
ONLY Registered REPUBLICANS will have a say in the nomination.


Of the ELEVEN contests before Super Tuesday,,, 8 are CLOSED to anyone but REPUBLICANS

Only New Hampshire (where Romney will win by 20 points because it is in his backyard, and 25% of his mansions are there, and the NH vote counters and ballot guards can manufacture ANY vote total they wish),
...and South Carolina (where Gingrich should mop the floor with a Mitt)
...and Minnesota (where Dayton and the Soros SOS will guarantee a Romney win)
...HAVE OPEN contests.

Everywhere else, GOP'ers ONLY shall decide, and notice that within THAT population, Newt still leads significantly.


PS: Super Tuesday has 11 more contests. Newt could win 8 or more of those because 5 are closed to anyone EXCEPT GOP, plus more three are (Georgia, Tennesee, and Wyoming) where they do not like governors from MA). Yeah!




( Gingrich-haters, please do NOT address or reply to me.)

36 posted on 12/21/2011 2:34:26 AM PST by Future Useless Eater (Chicago politics = corrupted capitalism = takeover by COMMUNity-ISM)
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To: FOX 'n Friends



When Karl Rove declares "PPP was just an outlier"...

...PLEASE do THIS...





( Gingrich-haters, please do NOT address or reply to me.)
37 posted on 12/21/2011 2:35:10 AM PST by Future Useless Eater (Chicago politics = corrupted capitalism = takeover by COMMUNity-ISM)
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To: Future Useless Eater

38 posted on 12/21/2011 2:39:28 AM PST by Future Useless Eater (Chicago politics = corrupted capitalism = takeover by COMMUNity-ISM)
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To: Future Useless Eater

Good analyses. The effort by the MSM to control the GOP primaries is something that angers me to the extreme. I am beginning to change my thinking on my decades of unwavering support for the GOP nominee. The degree of push for Romney by Fox News is disgusting and their on-going negative reporting on Gingrich is outrageous. After preaching about the need to support the GOP nominee, no matter who, I am so angry that I no longer hold that position. And if the GOP establishment runs in another “chosen” candidate, it will push me even further to a position I would have never thought I would consider, a write-in or support for a third party candidate.


39 posted on 12/21/2011 6:45:12 AM PST by Jukeman
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To: CainConservative

Would certainly help Newt if Cain would give him a Christmas present.


40 posted on 12/21/2011 6:49:15 AM PST by Jukeman
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To: Future Useless Eater
If you ignore Romney and Paul, as their support is largely outside the conservative community, it is evident that after Perry and Cain crashed, Gingrich has become the conservative leader. Provided that Gingrich does not shoot himself in the foot, it is likely Perry, Santorum, Huntsman, and Bachmann will drop out before January 31st. Their supporters are almost one fifth of the electorate. While the Huntsman support will go to Romney, the rest will likely go to Gingrich. As Santorum and Bachmann are hard core social conservatives, a fraction of their supporters will likely sit the primaries out, as Gingrich, Romney, and Paul are not strong social conservatives. It would be reasonable to estimate that 75% of the support for the dropouts will go to Gingrich. That will push Gingrich's support to the 40-45% range going into the big state primaries. Assuming Paul will be a weak third or lower in South Carolina and Florida, the softer supporters of the libertarian will fade away and he will be back into the single digits. With a Paul fadeout, Gingrich may go from a plurality to a majority. At that point, with a few victories under his belt, Romney may decide to strike his tent, perhaps settling for a vice presidential position or secretary of state, as Hillary did four years ago.
41 posted on 12/21/2011 9:10:23 AM PST by Wallace T. (Shoot, shovel, and shut up)
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To: Future Useless Eater

I don’t have any doubt that polls are being used as mind control, they always have been.

I do know this. I have a bunch of conservatives family members and close friends. All of them were Cain supporters, none of them are Newt supporters, including myself.

Anecdotal I know, but it is what it is.


42 posted on 12/21/2011 9:27:09 AM PST by chris37 (Heartless.)
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