Skip to comments.Newt leads nationally but what does it matter? (Newt-35, Mitt-22, Paul-11, Bachmann-7, Perry-4)
Posted on 12/20/2011 9:41:14 AM PST by TBBT
It's been a bad week for Newt Gingrich in our early state Republican polling, but we still find him with a good sized lead nationally. He's at 35% to 22% for Mitt Romney, 11% for Ron Paul, 7% for Michele Bachmann, 6% for Rick Perry, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.
On the surface that's good news for Gingrich but looking under the hood it's more bad news to some extent. We haven't done a national poll in 5 weeks, too long ago to make a good comparison, but on 6 state polls we've conducted since Thanksgiving in Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico Newt has always had a lead of at least 19 points over Romney with the average of those polls coming out to a 27 point advantage at 42-15. His present national lead represents some serious shrinkage from that. He's also seen a 13 point decline in his net favorability from our last national poll, going from +45 (68/23) to +32 (60/28).
The most interesting finding in this national poll might be that Romney's net favorability has improved 15 points in the last month from just +9 (48/39) to now +24 (55/31). Republican voters are starting to warm up to him in a way that could pave his path to the nomination. Beyond that Romney is clearly next in line to take the national lead if Gingrich continues to falter.
Not only is he 11 points clear of Paul, his closest competitor, but he's the 2nd choice of 35% of Gingrich voters compared to 16% for Bachmann, 11% for Perry and Santorum, and only 6% for Paul. If Newt's people keep jumping ship they're likely to end up with Romney.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Kind of curious.
Have you ever posted anything other than pro Newt or anti everyone else postings?
National polls don’t matter a bit. Ask Rudy Giuliani.
The primary and caucus winners get a boost, and then the next state to vote can either confirm or repudiate the result.
Iowa and NH often disagree, and then SC decides between the two, or occasionally goes in another direction, and keeps one more candidate alive.
Super Tuesday then accelerates things.
This year, Nevada and Florida will also vote before Super Tuesday, so we could see three different winners among all of the early states.
Many PPP election polls were commissioned by the liberal website Dailykos, although the company states that most of its revenue comes from other sources.
Newt is doing well, all considered. He is taking the punches from the radical lefitst media, and dealing it back at the right time too. IMHO, he is the ONLY front-runner that can dish it out, and is not afraid to.
The complicit media, along with the DemoRat socialist party, is used to handing it out in their favor, but is not used to getting back in their faces. Frankly, I hope Newt takes the nomination and gives it to them full force. Along with taking on Obama, toe-to-toe and showing him for who and what he is.
Certainly Romney will not do it. He will pander and cower under the Obama-media machine. And he is not a conservative, even though he says he is -— RomneyCare anyone?
Before even a single vote is cast, what do any polls mean? Fodder for the pundits and talking heads, mostly.
Will the term “outlier” now find it’s way into the daily reporting?
Will this confuse the narrative that Newt is in a free fall?
I believe that PPP is a Democratic polling Company for the DNC!
Romney has been stuck at 25% or less in every poll taken since the day he was born, no matter how hard they try to ram him down our throats.
It continues to baffle the inside-the-Beltway intelligentsia.
We’re just not that into their boy Mitty.
***Before even a single vote is cast, what do any polls mean? Fodder for the pundits and talking heads, mostly.***
Horse races require a daily racing form.
The media has something on which to base their random acts of asinine.
Supporters need a daily fix of comfort. (guilty)
Detractors don’t believe polls until their candidate is surging. (guilty)
Others are the like tricoteuse during the French Revolution.
I think Mittens’ nickname ought to be “23 Skidoo”.
He has spent five years running for President and polling at 23%.
He’s outa here!
Romney has Nevada and likely NH locked up. Crazy Iowa could go Paul which they could never live down and, imo, enhance the case for doing away with "tradition."
If Newt is to stay viable, it looks like SC is a "must win" early and FL could go his way but if it goes to Romney, I fear a snowball effect to his benefit.
We know from the Rudy attempt, you can't "start" a campaign in FL.
Even with proportional primaries, I don't see this contest lasting beyond March.
NH = Newt top two
SC = Newt 1st
FL = Newt 1st
NH = Newt top two
SC = Newt 1st
FL = Newt 1st
Only PPP can make a 35 point lead seem like a bad thing.
(Their Iowa Propaganda campaign thingie ain’t workin’ out for them.)
He's been at ends
Since he saw
Oops..sorry for the double.
Watchin' a jackass chase a dumb pachyderm
Oh what a show!
- "Rise Up", Jeremy Hoop
I don’t think Nevada is locked up for Romney. We have the worst numbers in the nation regarding the depression.
Nevadans are looking for answers.
Newt is much stronger in Iowa that you think. The latest polling is a scam and is false. It has been skewed by the Paultards, spamming the straw polls. Just wait till the actual voting starts. All the Paulista spam monkies in the world can’t manipulate the true outcome.