N. Korea's rejection of foreign delegations raises questions about stability

Yonhap ^ | 2011/12/20 | Staff Writer

[gandalftb]

North Korea's decision to not welcome foreign delegations to the funeral of former leader Kim Jong-il has some analysts in South Korea speculating about instability in the North, with the abrupt death of Kim heightening the uncertainty surrounding his untested heir-apparent.

North Korea declared a 13-day mourning period through Dec. 29 from the day of Kim's death on Saturday, while stating it will not accept foreign delegations at a state funeral set for Dec. 28 in Pyongyang. No entertainment will be allowed during the mourning period.

[gandalftb]

This is very odd. No foreign delegations, not even China.

Doing so would offer the new leader Kim Jung-un a golden opportunity to meet with allies and establish opportunities for future cooperation and support and arms sales.

It would also offer foreign delegations access to second and third tier, etc. NK leadership. That could be seen as threatening to Kim Jung-un and is likely the reason for the ban on all foreigners.

China has formally accepted Kim Jung-un as the new leader.

NK troops on exercise have all been recalled to their barracks, another odd move, that means that ammunition and weapons are confined to the armories.

I recall reports back in 1994 that many hardliners were opposed to Kim Jong-il's succession because Kim Il-sung had promised that there would be no dynastic succession. Now we are into the third generation dynasty and many hardliners remain. They cannot be happy, particularly about a 27 year old hedonistic novice running a deeply troubled country with a restless military.

BTW, Kim Jong-un appears to have been born on either January 1 or January 8, 1984, making him 27 now. The NK Supreme People's Assembly just passed a law making January 1 a national holiday as his birthday.

[gandalftb]

ping

[MplsSteve]

Interesting post. Thank you for sharing it.

[Uncle Ike]

” They cannot be happy, particularly about a 27 year old hedonistic novice running a deeply troubled country with a restless military. “

And at least some demonstrated Nuclear Weapons capability...

(Don’t feel bad - nobody else is talking about it, either...)
;)

[Pan_Yan]

This is very odd. No foreign delegations, not even China.

Is it possible given their financial state and trade isolation that they might not have the resources to pull of a state funeral and deal with hundreds of foreign dignitaries at one time successfully? We all know they are a hollow shell putting on a false front of success and power. That shell could be too thin to take the strain of a grand event without months of prior planning and accumulating supplies.

[gandalftb]

It should also be considered:

In 1994 Kim Il-sung died. It took 3 years for Kim Jong-il to take the titles of General Secretary of the Workers’ Party in 1997, and Chairman of the National Defence Commission in 1998which was then declared to be “the highest post of the state”.

Only last month did Kim Jong-il require all NK foreign embassy staff to pledge loyalty to Kim Jung-un, another odd and paranoid move. Or maybe not so paranoid, Kim Jon-il’s fears may have some basis.

[556x45]

Doesn’t seem that odd esp when 99% of the delegation will be some sort of intelligence operative. Who will miss Kim? I think no one. Why else would someone want to go to NK for reasons other than intelligence gathering.

[IbJensen]

It’s apparently not become clear to the jackasses who consider themselves our ‘leaders’ that North Korea is one fuc-ed up rotten little speck of dirt.

NK should have been blown off the map a long time ago doing the poor starved citizens a large favor!

The pathetic US State Department,upon the election of a new administration, needs to be completely gutted and restaffed with normal human beings instead of a gaggle of homosexuals and socialists.

[gandalftb]

NK has its friends, particularly the Chinese, but it is a short list. Funerals are prime opportunity for a “coronation” of the new leader by the outside world, that goes to greatly legitimizing the new regime.

I have never heard of a dictator succession anywhere, anytime that excluded allies, very odd.

I believe the new leadership is in play.

[AU72]

Any foreign rep who could have attended would have drawn the short straw.

[gandalftb]

“99% of the delegation will be some sort of intelligence operative”

Good point, that would be expected. However, the Chinese already are already deeply positioned to gather intel from NK from its highest ranks. The Chinese could have sent high level trade and defense ministers to reassure the new leader.

BTW, Kim Jong-un secretly traveled to China/Manchuria three months ago, alone to establish relationships there. The Chinese vigorously denied it and later admitted it. I recall that trip and the high security, worries of sabotage, double trains, etc. It was first thought that Kim Jong-il was on board and only later that it was Kim Jong-un.

[JPG]

Kim's little fat kid better watch his back because many Nork military types won't like taking order from a plump, neophyte commie dictator with delusions of godhood.

[GeronL]

I have little doubt that Jong-Un is probably a figurehead. The question is.... for the military or for his aunt?

[GeronL]

#5- good point

[GeronL]

He is a 4-star General without ever serving a day in the armed forces. lol. I am sure that gets a lot of respect there. heh

[TigerLikesRooster]

On the state level, none wants to beg their way into attending.

On the civilian level, there are people insisting on attending the funeral despite N. Korean stance: widow of Kim Dae-jung, chairwoman of Hyundai Asan, and people from Roh Mu-hyun Foundation. No surprise in this line-up. They are so predictable in their pro-North leanings. SK gov. said the first two can go if they wish (and NK relents and accept them.) However, they refused permission for the third. These folks are not spy material for S. Korea. If they are indeed spies, they would be working for NK regime, not SK gov. It remains to be seen if NK regime make exception for them, which is possible. They can manage small number of certifiably loyal foreigners.

[ALinArleta]

What! No singing, no dancing, no drinking, no laughing. Well, I did not want to go anyway.

[gandalftb]

Nothing would surprise me at this point. The Kims have some extended family with deep ties to old hard-liners. It would take very little for the Kims to get behind a military strong man and force a coup.

You make a good point, why wouldn’t NK allow its closest friends to show up and kowtow and swear loyalty?

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks gandalftb.

[Zhang Fei]

Dynastic power transfers were tough even during the era of absolute monarchy. It should be interesting to see if some enterprising senior figure – counselor or general – decides to rule from behind the throne with Kim Jr as a puppet. Or go into business for himself as a new Great Leader. This is probably also an opportune time for mid-or low-ranking officers to revolt. Does anyone in North Korea even know the meaning of carpe diem?