Skip to comments.Ron Paul Takes Lead in New Iowa Caucuses Poll
Posted on 12/22/2011 12:21:21 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
The Politico reported on Tuesday that some Iowa Republicans are worried that a Ron Paul victory in the states upcoming caucuses could damage its first-to-vote influence in future elections by anointing a candidate with little chance to win the GOP nomination and who is unrepresentative of the party. Whoever is angsting about that, can angst some more over a new poll showing Paul in first place.
Paul runs ahead of the GOP presidential pack with 27.5 percent support, followed by Newt Gingrich at 25.3 percent, Mitt Romney at 17.5 percent, Rick Perry at 11.2 percent and everyone else in single digits, according to an Iowa State University,Gazette,KCRG poll conducted Dec. 8-18. A little over 5 percent are undecided. the margin of error is 5 points.
Iowa States James McCormick, coordinator of the poll, said that while Pauls lead is small, it may be more solid than it seems.
What our poll says is that 51 percent of Pauls supporters say theyre definitely backing him, said McCormick. The percentage for the next two candidates is much weaker, at 16.1 for Mitt Romney and 15.2 for Newt Gingrich. Moreover, the percentage of respondents leaning to or still undecided in their support for these latter two candidates remains high, at 58 percent for Gingrich and 38 percent for Romney. In other words, Im going to make the case that these numbers are still very soft for those two candidates.
Most Iowans who backed Herman Cain before he suspended his campaign have moved to Gingrich, with 38 percent making him their first choice. Twenty percent shifted to Paul, 14 percent to Perry and 8.5 percent to Romney.
Tea party movement members overwhelmingly back Gingrich, at 42.4 percent. Romney and Perry are tied at 12.1 percent each for their support, Michele Bachmann gets 10.6 percent and Paul gets 9.1 percent. The poll says about a fifth of likely caucus-goers are tea party movement adherents.
RCP Average 12/8 - 12/19 —
Cain — Paul +3.5
The mainstream media has trashed a lot of candidates in the past months, assisted by Mitt Romney’s campaign working behind the scenes no doubt.
So after all the dust settles should it surprise us that Ron Paul stands untouched.
The media will do a hatchet job on him if he does win the Iowa caucuses.
And P.S., I don’t support Mr. Paul at all.
LOL the MSM is not worried about RP. If anything the MSM wants RP to win. It is a gazillion to one shot for him to get the nomination and if by chance he did get it all BO has to do is run a couple of Paul’s nutjob rants as commercials and BO-The-Zero wins in a landslide. Ron Paul would make the election a cake walk for Barry.
Turn out is paramount. The caucuses in Iowa -- Iowa's position of "FIRST" in the Nation has the poll position honors and their reputation is on the line. Will they turn out in sufficient numbers to advance a conservative candidate or allow this pretender to upset the race going forward? Libertarian Ron Paul refuses to deny he will mount a Third Party run. If he did, his support would dry up. This man must be stopped and it must start in Iowa. No Republican should give Paul their precious vote.
And Mitt Romney does too. Gov. Branstand has told the country to ignore a Paul win (???). That notion naturally would elevate Romney going into NH.
"This evening's assault on Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry from the SuperPAC waging an air war for Mitt Romney in Iowa is the purest indication yet of how well aligned Romney's goals are with those of Rep. Ron Paul."......Source
.................”In the end I trust Rick Perry more than I do either Romney or Gingrich when it comes to the things I care about as a Republican/Conservative.”............... — kowalski @ Red State.
The only good thing about this is that if Ron Paul wins Iowa, it will put an end forever to Iowa’s dominance of the process. He has NO chance of winning the nomination and everybody knows it.
This is not the way to come out of the starting block.
It matters not which state goes first if “Paul supporters” can run the race and win in the GOP primary as a “GOP conservative.”
My point is that I don’t think Ron Paul supporters can win outside of Iowa (which is a pure fluke, IMHO). Giving so much weight to this state is a mistake.
No Ron Paul
But I am not for anyone.
I understand. But he shouldn’t even be running as a Republican. It’s skewing the primary.
TEA party members overwhelmingly back the newt?
There are lies and there are damned lies.
There might be a surprise in Iowa.
Ron Paul’s strength is a message to the party insiders that we want a govt-cutting constitutionalist. They can give us some choices or we will find our own. Foreign policy-wise, he’s an isolationist. Is that practical? I’m not sure. But being the world police is not affordable.
Rick Perry is a small government conservative who has cut spending and regulations and enacted lawsuit abuse and litiation reform. He has more of the same planned for D.C. Lots more.
The margin of error is 5%, Paul’s number is 2.2% over Newt’s.
How is this being spun as a lead?
At best/worst, this would be a tie.
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True, but pulling our military presence in from throughout the entire globe isn't practical. I don't trust him on that issue, nor do I trust him on maintaining an intelligence presence in foreign regions either. Isolationism didn't work in 1941; it sure won't work now.
The fact a nutjob like Paul commands double-digit support says volumnes about the sad-sack state of the Republican Party.
I miss America too. She’s still there — she just needs to come out of hiding.
He has a great chance of being a spoiler. If he gets 10-20 percent in each primary that's 10-20 percent some other small gov. guy isn't going to get.
Thus the NEW MATH: 7.4 + 11.2 + 4.9 + 23.5%
Rick be lookin' good..
Yes he do!
Ron Paul is going to ruin this for anyone supporting Gingrich or Perry. Or Bachmann or Santorum, for that matter. This is a huge problem and I'm afraid we'll look back at him being the main reason we failed. This is on the back of Iowans and I pray they will realize what they're about to do and shift their support.
See, this is where the "Iowa doesn't really matter that much" sentiment is a problem. If someone other than Paul or Romney had say 40% of the support in successive states, I'd feel a lot better.
Thanks EternalVigilance !! That link is amazing and gives a really good lesson....sheep
Tough to do when she's comatose and nearing death, though...