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Ron Paul Takes Lead in New Iowa Caucuses Poll
Poll Watch Daily ^ | December 21, 2011 | Bruce Drake

Posted on 12/22/2011 12:21:21 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

The Politico reported on Tuesday that some Iowa Republicans are worried that a Ron Paul victory in the state’s upcoming caucuses could damage its first-to-vote influence in future elections by anointing a candidate with little chance to win the GOP nomination and who is unrepresentative of the party. Whoever is angsting about that, can angst some more over a new poll showing Paul in first place.

Paul runs ahead of the GOP presidential pack with 27.5 percent support, followed by Newt Gingrich at 25.3 percent, Mitt Romney at 17.5 percent, Rick Perry at 11.2 percent and everyone else in single digits, according to an Iowa State University,Gazette,KCRG poll conducted Dec. 8-18. A little over 5 percent are undecided. the margin of error is 5 points.

Iowa State’s James McCormick, coordinator of the poll, said that while Paul’s lead is small, it may be more solid than it seems.

“What our poll says is that 51 percent of Paul’s supporters say they’re definitely backing him,” said McCormick. “The percentage for the next two candidates is much weaker, at 16.1 for Mitt Romney and 15.2 for Newt Gingrich. Moreover, the percentage of respondents ‘leaning to’ or ‘still undecided’ in their support for these latter two candidates remains high, at 58 percent for Gingrich and 38 percent for Romney. In other words, I’m going to make the case that these numbers are still very soft for those two candidates.”

Most Iowans who backed Herman Cain before he suspended his campaign have moved to Gingrich, with 38 percent making him their first choice. Twenty percent shifted to Paul, 14 percent to Perry and 8.5 percent to Romney.

Tea party movement members overwhelmingly back Gingrich, at 42.4 percent. Romney and Perry are tied at 12.1 percent each for their support, Michele Bachmann gets 10.6 percent and Paul gets 9.1 percent. The poll says about a fifth of likely caucus-goers are tea party movement adherents.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: caucus; gingrich; gopprimary; iowa; rickperry; ronpaul; teaparty

1 posted on 12/22/2011 12:21:25 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: All; shield

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

RCP Average 12/8 - 12/19 —

Paul 23.8
Romney 20.3
Gingrich 17.3
Perry 11.8

Bachmann 8.3
Santorum 7.0
Huntsman 3.0
Cain — Paul +3.5


2 posted on 12/22/2011 12:35:31 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

The mainstream media has trashed a lot of candidates in the past months, assisted by Mitt Romney’s campaign working behind the scenes no doubt.

So after all the dust settles should it surprise us that Ron Paul stands untouched.

The media will do a hatchet job on him if he does win the Iowa caucuses.

And P.S., I don’t support Mr. Paul at all.


3 posted on 12/22/2011 1:20:14 AM PST by Nextrush (President Sarah Palin sounds just right to me)
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To: Nextrush

LOL the MSM is not worried about RP. If anything the MSM wants RP to win. It is a gazillion to one shot for him to get the nomination and if by chance he did get it all BO has to do is run a couple of Paul’s nutjob rants as commercials and BO-The-Zero wins in a landslide. Ron Paul would make the election a cake walk for Barry.


4 posted on 12/22/2011 1:29:45 AM PST by Captain Beyond (The Hammer of the gods! (Just a cool line from a Led Zep song))
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To: Nextrush
The mainstream media has trashed a lot of candidates in the past months, assisted by Mitt Romney’s campaign working behind the scenes no doubt. So after all the dust settles should it surprise us that Ron Paul stands untouched.......

Turn out is paramount. The caucuses in Iowa -- Iowa's position of "FIRST" in the Nation has the poll position honors and their reputation is on the line. Will they turn out in sufficient numbers to advance a conservative candidate or allow this pretender to upset the race going forward? Libertarian Ron Paul refuses to deny he will mount a Third Party run. If he did, his support would dry up. This man must be stopped and it must start in Iowa. No Republican should give Paul their precious vote.

5 posted on 12/22/2011 1:34:59 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Captain Beyond
LOL the MSM is not worried about RP. If anything the MSM wants RP to win.

And Mitt Romney does too. Gov. Branstand has told the country to ignore a Paul win (???). That notion naturally would elevate Romney going into NH.

"This evening's assault on Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry from the SuperPAC waging an air war for Mitt Romney in Iowa is the purest indication yet of how well aligned Romney's goals are with those of Rep. Ron Paul."......Source

6 posted on 12/22/2011 1:39:18 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Nextrush; All

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2823677/posts

.................”In the end I trust Rick Perry more than I do either Romney or Gingrich when it comes to the things I care about as a Republican/Conservative.”............... — kowalski @ Red State.


7 posted on 12/22/2011 2:23:22 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

The only good thing about this is that if Ron Paul wins Iowa, it will put an end forever to Iowa’s dominance of the process. He has NO chance of winning the nomination and everybody knows it.


8 posted on 12/22/2011 2:27:05 AM PST by livius
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To: livius

This is not the way to come out of the starting block.

It matters not which state goes first if “Paul supporters” can run the race and win in the GOP primary as a “GOP conservative.”


9 posted on 12/22/2011 2:31:44 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

My point is that I don’t think Ron Paul supporters can win outside of Iowa (which is a pure fluke, IMHO). Giving so much weight to this state is a mistake.


10 posted on 12/22/2011 2:38:42 AM PST by livius
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To: livius
I really at a lost

No Ron Paul

No Obama.

But I am not for anyone.

11 posted on 12/22/2011 2:55:53 AM PST by scooby321
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To: livius

I understand. But he shouldn’t even be running as a Republican. It’s skewing the primary.


12 posted on 12/22/2011 2:56:28 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

TEA party members overwhelmingly back the newt?

There are lies and there are damned lies.


13 posted on 12/22/2011 3:32:59 AM PST by muddler (Chaos is coming.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

There might be a surprise in Iowa.


14 posted on 12/22/2011 4:24:59 AM PST by varina davis (We grow too soon old and too late smart -- Pennsylvania Dutch adage)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Ron Paul’s strength is a message to the party insiders that we want a govt-cutting constitutionalist. They can give us some choices or we will find our own. Foreign policy-wise, he’s an isolationist. Is that practical? I’m not sure. But being the world police is not affordable.


15 posted on 12/22/2011 5:09:22 AM PST by Onelifetogive (I tweet, too... @Onelifetogive)
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To: Onelifetogive

Rick Perry is a small government conservative who has cut spending and regulations and enacted lawsuit abuse and litiation reform. He has more of the same planned for D.C. Lots more.


16 posted on 12/22/2011 5:15:06 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

The margin of error is 5%, Paul’s number is 2.2% over Newt’s.

How is this being spun as a lead?

At best/worst, this would be a tie.


17 posted on 12/22/2011 5:19:28 AM PST by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their President is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife; jonrick46; deepbluesea; TexMom7; potlatch; SunkenCiv; wolfcreek; BuckeyeTexan; ...
Perry Ping....

IF you'd rather NOT be pinged FReepmail me.

IF you'd like to be added FReepmail me. Thanks.

*****************************************************************************************************************************************************


18 posted on 12/22/2011 5:39:58 AM PST by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)
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To: Onelifetogive
But being the world police is not affordable.

True, but pulling our military presence in from throughout the entire globe isn't practical. I don't trust him on that issue, nor do I trust him on maintaining an intelligence presence in foreign regions either. Isolationism didn't work in 1941; it sure won't work now.

19 posted on 12/22/2011 6:17:46 AM PST by ScottinVA (I miss America.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

The fact a nutjob like Paul commands double-digit support says volumnes about the sad-sack state of the Republican Party.


20 posted on 12/22/2011 6:19:40 AM PST by ScottinVA (I miss America.)
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To: ScottinVA

volumnes=volumes


21 posted on 12/22/2011 6:20:40 AM PST by ScottinVA (I miss America.)
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To: ScottinVA

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2823675/posts#1

I miss America too. She’s still there — she just needs to come out of hiding.


22 posted on 12/22/2011 6:27:12 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: livius
He has NO chance of winning the nomination

He has a great chance of being a spoiler. If he gets 10-20 percent in each primary that's 10-20 percent some other small gov. guy isn't going to get.

23 posted on 12/22/2011 6:38:13 AM PST by Tribune7 (Vote Perry (or Gingrich maybe))
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
As I have said often, after Iowa, when Bachmann and Santorum drop out, there is really no place else for their supporters..primarily evangelicals..to go, EXCEPT to Perry.

Thus the NEW MATH: 7.4 + 11.2 + 4.9 + 23.5%

Rick be lookin' good..

24 posted on 12/22/2011 6:43:26 AM PST by ken5050 (Support Admin Mods: Doing the tough, hard, dirty jobs that Americans won't do...)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
How polling works on Republican primary voters
25 posted on 12/22/2011 6:46:53 AM PST by EternalVigilance (With God Obama can't hurt us. Without God, George Washington couldn't save us.)
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To: ken5050

Yes he do!


26 posted on 12/22/2011 6:47:36 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
No Republican should give Paul their precious vote.

No Republican would ever vote for the surrender monkey. The only people who will vote for him are the far leftists who want to see America's military destroyed and the pot heads who think he will legalize drugs.
Republicans do not hate America. Cut and Run and his band of surrender monkeys are the ones who do.
27 posted on 12/22/2011 6:50:51 AM PST by John D
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To: livius
The problem with Ron Paul if he wins Iowa is it will create uncertainty going into NH and SC. I hate to think this way, but he paves the way for a Romney nomination. If Ron Paul wins Iowa, most likely Romney wins NH. By then, the recent rise of Gingrich and to a lesser degree, Perry, will be viewed as futile. These guys can't win it now. We better focus squarely on Romney. Voters will gravitate to the person with the "most" success coming out of Iowa, NH, and SC. That's gonna be Romney. He will finish somewhere between 2nd and 3rd (at the worst) in each of those states.

Ron Paul is going to ruin this for anyone supporting Gingrich or Perry. Or Bachmann or Santorum, for that matter. This is a huge problem and I'm afraid we'll look back at him being the main reason we failed. This is on the back of Iowans and I pray they will realize what they're about to do and shift their support.

See, this is where the "Iowa doesn't really matter that much" sentiment is a problem. If someone other than Paul or Romney had say 40% of the support in successive states, I'd feel a lot better.

28 posted on 12/22/2011 7:54:58 AM PST by mikhailovich
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To: EternalVigilance

http://www.lifeandlibertyreport.com/5/post/2011/12/how-polling-works-on-republican-primary-voters.html

Thanks EternalVigilance !! That link is amazing and gives a really good lesson....sheep


29 posted on 12/22/2011 10:02:07 AM PST by Irish Eyes
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
I miss America too. She’s still there — she just needs to come out of hiding.

Tough to do when she's comatose and nearing death, though...

30 posted on 12/23/2011 4:59:46 AM PST by ScottinVA (I miss America.)
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