Skip to comments.Iowa GOP Caucus Poll: Paul 27.5%, Newt 25.3%, Mitt 17.5% (Romney Tanking in Iowa?)
Posted on 12/27/2011 1:25:30 PM PST by TitansAFC
AMES, Iowa -- A new Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll of 333 likely Iowa Republican caucus goers finds Ron Paul in the top spot among GOP presidential candidates with 27.5 percent, followed closely by Newt Gingrich with 25.3 percent. Paul's lead over Gingrich is within the poll's margin of error at plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Mitt Romney is in third place at 17.5 percent, while Rick Perry is the only other candidate to poll in double digits at 11.2.
While Paul's lead is just over 2 percentage points and easily within the poll's margin of error, it may actually be more solid than it appears.
"What our poll says is that 51 percent of Paul's supporters say they're definitely backing him," said James McCormick, professor and chair of political science at Iowa State and coordinator of the poll. "The percentage for the next two candidates is much weaker, at 16.1 for Mitt Romney and 15.2 for Newt Gingrich. Moreover, the percentage of respondents 'leaning to' or 'still undecided' in their support for these latter two candidates remains high, at 58 percent for Gingrich and 38 percent for Romney. In other words, I'm going to make the case that these numbers are still very soft for those two candidates."
"I think Paul probably under-polls," said Dave Peterson, interim director of the Harkin Institute of Public Policy at Iowa State and associate professor of political science who assisted with the poll. "His supporters are younger and more likely to reply on a cell phone, so he's probably going to perform better than his polling suggests. His supporters also are dedicated and will likely turn out on caucus night and not change their minds."
With less than two week to go until the Jan. 3 Iowa Caucuses, the race still remains remarkably fluid. Asked how certain they were of their choice, 37.8 percent of respondents indicated that they were still trying to decide and another 34.1 percent answered that they were only leaning towards one candidate. Only 28.1 percent indicated that they had definitely decided who they would support.
"Because we surveyed the same likely caucus goers in November [data collected between Nov. 1 and 13], these results do indicate some movement to strengthening the commitment to a particular candidate," McCormick said. "In November, only 16.5 percent indicated that they had definitely committed to a candidate....
Here's a thought:
That is possibly why 0bummer desperately wants Romney to be his opponent. Like McCain, his natural born citizen status is questionable. If both candidates have the same problem, 0bummer has less of a problem.
Let us see-
a child born in US to Mexican parents is a US citizen (birthright citizen).
a child born in Mexico to US citizens is a US citizen.
wow, it is so easy to be US citizen!
Mexico does not have a say to a child born within its jurisdiction just because the parents are US citizens!?
McCain had to be declared by law (by obama sponsored resolution 511) to be a nbc.
nbc is ‘natural born’, citizenship by law means NOT natural born.
You need to go thru this shitte again until you get it.
You’re correct, its value to campaigns is that it’s the first, and that’s also by design for Iowa to have the money and influence that this brings.
If I were king though, it would not continue in this. It doesn’t deserve it and it distorts the primary too much in the wrong direction. Iowa’s caucus process is particularly weird and ripe for manipulation. The results are nigh meaningless.
So, it’s a wish on my part: that, somehow, it be rejected and removed from its current status.
thanks for your reply.
If so, God bless the Iowa Republicans!
Poll is a week old but the internals are interesting.
One thing that jumped out at me was that Perry was doing so well among those who defined themselves as slightly liberal.
This percentage for Paul is absurd. There’s NO way, that’s NO way, he gets 27.5% of the vote based on county by county demographics and analysis.
There’s only TWO ways this happens. Large numbers of Huckabee, Thompson, McCain, and Romney voters from 2008 support Paul in 2012 (Highly unlikely) OR Infiltration of the Iowa Caucuses by the Democrat Party.
Paul maxes out at 16%. I’ll be eager to see the results for each of the 99 counties as they roll in. Whatever doesn’t smell right, I’ll quickly point out based on the chart I compiled.
Who cares who wins in Iowa.
Means that all the Liberal hit pieces on Ron Paul....parroted by the Liberal RINO media...have had no effect
Nearly 50 years ago we learned about Jus Sanguinis and Jus Soli in school. Those terms were not used but the principles were and the formula was either/or. Obama is a citizen, Romney is a citizen, McCain is a citizen - and all are natural born rather than naturalized by a process and a judge.
Obama’s life since birth is full of so many evasions, lies, obfuscations, enigmas, illusions, frauds, and possible crimes.
Not a Gingrich supporter, but I would practically worship the guy if he really did that.
“Those of us who have a bunch of years on us will probably recall that in the 1960 presidential race between Nixon and Kennedy that Nixon’s Veep candidate was Henry Cabot Lodge [a GOP blue-blood Senator from Mass.]
“His parents were also missionaries and Lodge was born in China.”
That does not appear to be true.
Wasn’t McCain cleared to run because his parents were out of the country with the Navy.
The caucus process may seem weird, but that is actually the begining of the political season. in it, each precinct meets as a group, wherein the participants nominate their choice of candidates, elect delegates, start the platform process, and a few other housekeeping chores.
The meetings are open only to residents of their respective precincts, and the Republicans are on a list.
The democrats do things differently. They form groups within their precincts, and count delegates. The group with the most delegates "wins", but there is considerable campaigning between groups, meaning that before the final count, people can and do move between groups. Progressively larger groups are thus formed until no further movement is seen, whereupon the final count is made, which designates their choice of candidate.
As far as I know, the Republicans and democrats meet on the same evening, thus making it nearly impossible for anyone to be in both caucuses. The process has its own checks and balances.
If someone wishes to caucus with the opposing party, they used to have to be registered by a certain cutoff date, but since there is now same-day registration, I don't know for sure if there is a cutoff date.
A child born to U.S. citizens can be born anywhere in the world, and he is a U.S. Citizen.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bum.
As unlikely as it looked two months ago, I suppose there is now a very real possibility after IA, NH, NV, SC, and FL that it could in fact be Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul as #1 and #2 in delegate count.
What an odd place that would be after FL, eh?
Our caucus, being the very first, is a long way from the election. In politics, even a week can seem like a lifetime.
I agree with the philosophy of many campaign managers in the past. The important thing in Iowa is to come out of it in the top three contenders. No lower than fourth.
The whittling down of the number of candidates has to start somewhere.
Mitt Romney was born in Detroit and his mother Lenore was born in Logan, Utah. His father George was born a U.S. Citizen in Colonia Dublán, Galeana, Chihuahua, Mexico in 1907. George’s parents were both born in Utah and were U.S. Citizen’s on a Mormon mission in Chihuahua at the time of his birth.
The parents of his grandmother Anna Amelia (Pratt) Romney both died in Chihuahua. Her father was born in Iowa and her mother was a German immigrant.
The question about Mitt is —if his father was born in Mexico.