Skip to comments.Romney and Paul Ahead in New Iowa Poll (In Virtual Tie)
Posted on 12/31/2011 5:47:06 PM PST by lbryce
The Des Moines Register poll the final one before the Iowa caucuses on Tuesday has Mitt Romney and Ron Paul virtually tied in the lead going into the final 72 hours before voting.
In the survey, Mr. Romney has 24 percent and Mr. Paul has 22 percent.
The new poll, which was released online by the newspaper at 7 p.m. local time, shows the candidates closely bunched up behind the two leaders.
Mr. Santorum has 15 percent in the poll while Mr. Gingrich gets 12 percent. Mr. Perry has 11 percent and Mrs. Bachmann gets 7 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percent, the paper said.
The paper said that Mr. Santorums support boosts himself into second place when only the final two days of the poll were counted.
The survey reflects a reordering of the field in the last several weeks. The previous poll by the Register, released on Dec. 3, showed Mr. Gingrich with the lead, at 25 percent, Mr. Paul in second and Mr. Romney in third, with 16 percent support.
(Excerpt) Read more at thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com ...
604 respondents, over the last 4 days, MOE = 5.6%
302 respondents, over the last 2 days
ALL the momentum is with Santorum. Will the evangelicals tomorrow at church unite with their pastors? If so..
Michele and Perry drop out to endorse??????
My head is spinning. But I’m sticking with Newt to close this out in SC & FL....
These people are leading the pack? We're doomed.
A poll on a Republican race in the RedStar & Sickle is like a PETA ranking of their favorite steakhouses.
It’s those wacky Iowans again! They’d vote for Sponge Bob if they could, just hear the media talk about how “unpredictable” they are. I wish we could pull the plug on this circus already.
agreed. tomorrow could be a big day at the churches. After this, if the pastors/churches swing behind Santorum he could well take it.
Of course, Romney can still air some major ads against him.
but at this point I think Mitt doesn’t really care about IA. NH was always his bastion. As long as he wins there he’s fine.
And, he may actually be ok with Santorum winning as he’s much weaker going forward in SC and FL than Perry or Newt would have been. A much more preferred matchup for him. Santorum has no money or organization really in those states. And he has enough of a record and baggage the spotlight being shown on him won’t be all that pretty and could end up hurting the party and making Mitt’s case look all the better.
Maybe it’s those sweater vests Santorum has been wearing. Personally I don’t like them, don’t think they’re Presidential and make him look like a kid.
The 2012 Mayan Disaster right on schedule.
You sure pegged that right. Sponge Bob? lol, but your right. They are enjoying their day in the spotlight, they mudy have so little in Iowa for entertainment.
The Register is Iowa’s Red Star&Sickle.
This poll shows Ron Paul only two points behind Romney.
Paul is a bad choice but he’s the one closest to beating Romney who must be stopped.
Paul runs second to Romney in the latest New Hampshire polling.
I’m sick of the circular firing squad blasting off salvos for Perry, Santorum, Newt etc. etc.
Romney has the conservatives fighting each other instead of fighting him.
Maybe we can find a real conservative candidate to beat Romney when the vote reaches South Carolina and Florida later this month.
But for Iowa and New Hampshire the way to fight Romney is messier.
My first choice remains the one candidate most outside of business as usual politics, Bachmann, but she has no chance.
If I had to walk into a caucus next Tuesday night or vote in New Hampshire, I would be disgusted with the whole situation but I would vote to see Romney lose.
I want to start a fight between Romney and Paul rather than see the fight among conservatives continue while Romney rides above the fight.
The surge is working!
The fight has to continue to South Carolina, but the fight among conservatives is not likely to stop unless we forget about any of them winning in Iowa or New Hamsphire.
Tactical votes to defeat Romney are a better alternative that cancelling each other’s votes (Perry, Santorum, Newt, Bachmann) out allowing Romney to win the first two contests and gain momentum going into the South.
The surge is working!
The idea that Paul is even in the running is so ridiculous that it tells me that something is very wrong with a whole lot of people....like MAYBE pretend Repubs have infiltrated and ruined the entire process. PAUL IS CRAZY!!!!
Win or lose the Perry campaign will still have plenty of cash on hand. His consultants will want to expend it and thus collect a share. Perry doesn’t need it for another campaign seeing as he officially “retired” last January. Bachmann, win or lose, probably will have less cash on hand. Her plan all along was to leverage a win in the state next to her base, and conveniently her birth state, into national momentum. Lose here and her presidential campaign is out of obvious options, but her backup option - staying in congress - could use any leftover funds. She might drop out if she does poorly enough, but a losing Perry would likely stay in, albeit damaged. Like Bachmann, Santorum has ‘bet the house’ on Iowa and has actually promised to drop out if he does too poorly there. But the trend suggests his bet may win, at least this round. Whether he can leverage such a win enough, and quickly enough, to succeed nationally remains to be seen. But last time Huckabee gained quite a bit from his unexpected Iowa win. Santorum lacks Huckabee’s considerable baggage and his records and positions are fiscally much more conservative than Huckabee’s, so his ceiling could be higher.
If Newt can get through IA and NH in relatively good shape, with either a win in IA or a close 2d or 3d, he should be able to wrap up some of the Southern states and be the lead dog into Super Tuesday. Cross your fingers!
Cross your fingers!Yes, crossed, and I want Romney to rise rise rise into the ignominy of complete obscurity following defeat after humiliating defeat. But that's just me. Go Mitt! And by "go" I mean "go away".
If this primary has shown one thing at all, it shows the GOP isnt what it used to be. It’s in a state of flux.
Part of it is because the Democrats are moving further and further left. Which means we are picking up moderates and libertarians which is diluting the social conservatives. You also have the generation X’ers and Y’ers that are starting to get more involved with politics. And many of them are as whacky as Ron Paul.
The majority of youth in this country are either liberal or libertarians. Not very many people are 100% conservative when they graduate college.
Newt continues to fade away, Perry shows no bounce at all, and Iowan native Bachmann is deader than dead. I don’t see how she can continue at all after this. And once again, we see from the Ron Paul numbers that the mentally ill amongst us are far larger than we ever imagined. And all of this - by design - keeps one man on top...the nightmare candidate Mittens. What a mess. Obama must be thrilled.
Hardcore Branstaders, I think.
I certainly hope you are wrong. If my pastor encourages our parishoners to vote for anyone special, I will be very unhappy.
Church is no place to do that when we have this many social conservatives all bunched up together.
Any pastor who goes out on a limb and tries to influence his parishoners, is in for a whole lot of trouble.
Congrats to Bulldog Santorum. I cant wait for the NEXT debate when Rick tears into Willard.
Hopefully, our final four going into SC:
1. Conservative Gingrich
2. Conservative Santorum
3. Liberal Romney
4. Crackhead Paul
..which means, that’s the order they should finish in SC, imho. : )
Did you ever go to a Evangelical church in Iowa on the Sunday before a Republican caucus? ; )
“This stuff makes me think that the GOP is fatally flawed.”
The gop has been fatally flawed for conservatives for years. Yet conservatives continue to vote for whatever big government centrist the gop nominates. The threads about 8 months from now will be hilarious as “conservatives” attempt to rationalize why they plan to vote for mittens. The guy doesn’t have a conservative bone in his body, yet he’ll still get the bulk of the conservative vote. See tagline.
Who do these pastors think they are, anyway? God?
I have no problem with them being involved politically but they certainly should not get involved in a primary.
Paul would be a better choice than Mitt??? Come on. Either you are one of those Paulbots or one of those with RDS (or both).
What is RDS?
Why, is God into politics? I know, He will be busy helping out Tebow in Denver Sunday : )
I was going to ask the same thing about “RDS”. What the heck is it?
Santorum has a shot at winning this thing, which is amazing. A strong 3rd is great for him, a 2nd place finish over Paul sets up a Romney vs Santorum narrative, and a win blows this thing wide open.
The race begins in South Carolina. Iowa is an anomaly, and NH is bagged for The Socialist. SC is coalesce time for the non-Romney who can beat Romney. Looks to be Newt if national polls mean anything.
after watching (again) the fiasco that is Iowa politics, I have lost all respect for thier so called caucus method...it is, at best, pathetic
Every four or five months I check back in to FreeRepublic to take a gander at the obsessed Romney-hatred. I see it has risen to the unhealthy level of fanaticism.
Well, if you’ve got a candidiate with the utter pomposity, temerity to call himself a “Republican” and yet is politiclally nearly indistinguishable from one of the most liberal, left-wing candidates in presidential history there’s going to be legitimate animus from those who seek to support a genuine candidate.
I wanted either Bachmann, Santorum, or Gingrich, whichever one had the best shot at winning. That appears to be Santorum. If Romney or Paul wins Slick Willard will likely be the nominee *barfs*
Sad day for America when multi million dollar smear campaigns work and win. If voters are too damn ignorant to do their homework and vie for candidates like Paul and Romney...GOD help us!!!!!!!!! amazing Gingrich is even in double digits after the onslaught by the gop establishment and millions spent bashing him. I am so disgusted. Go to Bing or google and all pop ups that are anti Newt (when I type in his name) but type in Romney and it is all green lights. FUMR AND FUFAUXNEWS
You got that right PhilDragoo:) the only Speaker of the House with such great accomplishments. Tell that to Rove, Faux News, Imus, Anne “adams apple” Coulter and Larry Sabato. Newt brings real HOPE to this nation ...NO ROMNEY...NO Paul...GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NEWT!!!!!!!!!!!!! GOD be with us in this fight
DS=”Derangement Syndrome”, one assumes (s)he means “Romney Derangement Syndrome.”
Why is that so absurd? Paul is a loon on defense and foreign affairs, but great on economics. That makes him better than Myth, who is a lefty on economics but mushy moderate on defense.
Right now my ranking of them all is:
If elected, Myth will destroy conservatism for a generation. At least people will recognize Paul isn’t a conservative.