As I understand the real charge against Staff Sergeant Wuterich, he, in the mind of liberals, sent his troops on a killing spree by giving the "shoot first, ask questions later" instructions.
If every Marine is indoctrinated with the above creed "I must shoot him before he shoots me.", and since the ROEs at the time did NOT require positive ID but only a feeling of endangerment, then I see no way he can be convicted on any of the true charges.
There's always the possibility they're trying to salvage face by secretly targeting the "did not clean under his fingernails prior to dress mess" law. Just so they can say, "convicted on one charge....in the killing of 24 innocent civilians".
And you know they'll do it. It's not what's true in their mind; it's what they can spin that matters.