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Iran threatens action if U.S. carrier returns: IRNA
Reuters ^

Posted on 01/03/2012 2:22:04 AM PST by Sub-Driver

Iran threatens action if U.S. carrier returns: IRNA Photo 4:49am EST

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran will take action if a U.S. aircraft carrier which left the area because of Iranian naval exercises returns to the Gulf, the state news agency quoted army chief Ataollah Salehi as saying on Tuesday.

"Iran will not repeat its warning ... the enemy's carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill. I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf," Salehi told IRNA.

"I advise, recommend and warn them (the Americans) over the return of this carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once," the semi-official Fars news agency quoted Salehi as saying.

Salehi did not name the aircraft carrier or give details of the action Iran might take if it returned.

(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: iran; rodomontade
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1 posted on 01/03/2012 2:22:18 AM PST by Sub-Driver
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To: Sub-Driver

Will O go for a Gulf of Tonkin?

Or will we force Iran, smartly, to keep the Strait open?

Hope y’all are keeping your tanks full for what little it may help. A week or so.


2 posted on 01/03/2012 2:29:48 AM PST by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, 5:13; John 3:17-18, 6:69, 11:25, 14:6, 20:31; Rom10:8-11; 1 Tim 2:5; Titus 3:4-5)
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To: F15Eagle

Can Iran actually close the straight? Or is this just more hot air mother of all blah blah blah?


3 posted on 01/03/2012 2:37:48 AM PST by mitch5501 (My guitar wants to kill your momma!)
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To: mitch5501

They could, but for how long? Even Obama would be forced to take action. This is just a ploy on their part to see if hot air will give them what they want.


4 posted on 01/03/2012 2:42:07 AM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: Forward the Light Brigade

Obama is chomping at the bit. He knows that a war is the best cover for him to get away with a power grab. Don’t forget, it was Biden who wrote the Patriot Act. A war is exactly what they want, and they’re attempting to bait one.


5 posted on 01/03/2012 2:48:42 AM PST by JDW11235 (I think I got it now!)
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To: mitch5501

With enough bluster and some wild acts on the Iranians part, the insurance companies will see to it, that no ships pass through.


6 posted on 01/03/2012 2:49:31 AM PST by brooklin
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To: Sub-Driver

7 posted on 01/03/2012 2:52:12 AM PST by Bobalu (We cannot afford to bring Mittens to a Newt-fight.)
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To: brooklin

This is all starting to look like an open case of dynamite next to a campfire on a windy day.


8 posted on 01/03/2012 2:52:32 AM PST by mitch5501 (My guitar wants to kill your momma!)
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To: mitch5501

sure they could. the question is, how would Iran’s oil exporting neighbors respond to such an act.


9 posted on 01/03/2012 2:52:32 AM PST by RC one (I will not vote for the gun grabbing, draft dodging, pro-choice, so called Republican Mitt Romney.)
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To: mitch5501

>>Can Iran actually close the straight?

Someone else (who appeared to be knowledgeable) posted in an earlier thread that they could - easily. Attack ships passing through with Silkworm anti-ship missiles.

Not only would the hulks block the strait, insurance companies would no longer insure tankers which means they would not chance passing through.


10 posted on 01/03/2012 2:52:49 AM PST by expat1000
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To: expat1000

The latter is the real issue, the former pretty unlikely.


11 posted on 01/03/2012 2:58:28 AM PST by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: Sub-Driver

The Mouse that Roared?


12 posted on 01/03/2012 2:59:03 AM PST by Pontiac (The welfare state must fail because it is contrary to human nature and diminishes the human spirit.)
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To: expat1000

Maybe the ins. companies would jack the price up to stratospheric levels and we end up paying $15 a gallon for gas.I know that probably sounds ludicrous but the middle east is becoming a hornet’s nest lately and it’s prone to boggling my mind.


13 posted on 01/03/2012 3:00:50 AM PST by mitch5501 (My guitar wants to kill your momma!)
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To: Sub-Driver

Go ahead, punks, take a shot at a Carrier
Make our day- hell, make our entire year


14 posted on 01/03/2012 3:02:04 AM PST by silverleaf (Common sense is not so common- Voltaire)
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To: F15Eagle
Hope y’all are keeping your tanks full for what little it may help. A week or so.

As long as they don't do anything between this afternoon and Saturday, I'll be fine.

Leaving this frigid, Socialist Republic of Utopian Moonbats (Vermont) this p.m. for the warmer, sunnier (and saner) climes of Clearwater FL and expect to land on Saturday.

Ben checking Gas Buddy and the prices seem to be holding fairly steady (close to $3.00/gal) in most of the states I'll be traversing.

Personally, I wish the Mad Mullahs and I'm-a-Nut-Job would make the mistake of doing something stoopid as that could be the catalyst we could use to take decisive action and kick some Iranian butt.....that is, IF we had a CIC who was not an Islamic-Jihadist-Appeaser, even if that meant we had to pay a little more for our gas.

15 posted on 01/03/2012 3:03:39 AM PST by Conservative Vermont Vet (l)
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To: F15Eagle

O Man, remember when they released the US hostages the very minute Reagan was sworn into office?

Imagine Iran with a GOP President who signs us up for domestic “Drill Baby Drill” his first hour in office, drives the price of oil below $50 barrel, and has the mullahs on the phones to their German bankers begging for loans to feed the Iranian army


16 posted on 01/03/2012 3:07:47 AM PST by silverleaf (Common sense is not so common- Voltaire)
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To: FreedomPoster

With either scenario, war erupts as the other Gulf States will act against Iran for its belligernace. The problem is the Iranian regime thinks their neighbors will act against the US because of our belligerence to call them on their threat by sending the Stennis back to its station port of Bahrain. Either way, it will be going back through soon unless Pantload Obama acts true to form. If he does, the area will take care of their neighborhood problem themselves, further relegating the US to more slippage in its stature.

When it does happen, oil will go up. Everyone here, save the typical few, will finally wake up and Obama’s perfect plan will blow up in his face, bigtime. Then, a real leader will emerge who has a pair and we will be on our way to even greater stature


17 posted on 01/03/2012 3:27:48 AM PST by mazda77 (and I am a Native Texan)
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To: expat1000

The last time this happened the US Navy escorted the ships through the straits.


18 posted on 01/03/2012 3:30:30 AM PST by DaveArk
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To: DaveArk

“The last time this happened the US Navy escorted the ships through the straits.”

****

This time, SOS Rodham Clinton will negotiate our carrier’s surrender to an Iranian dinghy on behalf of B. Hussein Obama (P*ss be upon him) and his Taliban buddies.

We will also be treated to more teleprompter speeches about the why we must buy taxpayer-subsidized electric cars as the solution to soaring gas prices.


19 posted on 01/03/2012 3:38:49 AM PST by peyton randolph (B. Hussein Obama solved Bush's "problem" of a AAA credit rating)
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To: DaveArk
"The last time this happened the US Navy escorted the ships through the straits"

Boy would that ever chaff Iran's hide.You might as well paint a thirty foot high middle finger on the side of the hull.

20 posted on 01/03/2012 3:41:32 AM PST by mitch5501 (My guitar wants to kill your momma!)
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To: Sub-Driver

I think the USS Stennis CVN 74 is in that area.


21 posted on 01/03/2012 3:45:16 AM PST by bonfire
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To: peyton randolph; DaveArk
SOS Rodham Clinton will negotiate our carrier’s surrender to an Iranian dinghy

FWIW, in this kind of situation where it's a personal ball-buster/toe-to-toe, I'd bet on Hitlery vs. Mullahs. She's dirty, dirty pool. Whenever the Clintons' political whims happen to align with what's best for the country, look out.

22 posted on 01/03/2012 3:45:44 AM PST by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: Bobalu

That is a GREAT video for dog lovers! First time ever I used Google image matching to find it.

http://www.cutespotting.com/2011/10/10/english-mastiff-vs-chihuahua/


23 posted on 01/03/2012 3:46:16 AM PST by expat1000
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To: mitch5501

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Earnest_Will


24 posted on 01/03/2012 3:50:00 AM PST by DaveArk
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To: mitch5501
That was during the so-called "tanker war", when Iraq was taking potshots at tankers because the Gulf countries were supporting Iran against them during the Iran-Iraq war.

Seeing how incompetent this administration is, and how hostile they are towards our own military, I get the distinct feeling, they could lose a shooting war with Iraq.

Where else, but in our great democracy can a common paper hanger community organizer rise to become both a military and naval genius?

25 posted on 01/03/2012 3:50:04 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (Ceterum autem censeo, Obama delenda est.)
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To: Sub-Driver

I suspect it is just as easy for the USA to take care of these rag heads from wherever they are, our only problem is wimpy mac daddy.


26 posted on 01/03/2012 3:54:08 AM PST by chiefqc
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To: expat1000

Yes, It’s extremely cute :-)


27 posted on 01/03/2012 3:58:47 AM PST by Bobalu (We cannot afford to bring Mittens to a Newt-fight.)
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To: Conservative Vermont Vet

Welcome to sunny and warm Clearwater. It’ll be around 70 on Saturday and breezy. Us locals will be wearing our winter coats for such inclimate weather. Enjoy.


28 posted on 01/03/2012 4:09:54 AM PST by Justa
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To: DaveArk
Thanks for the link.Sounds like they were a provocative bunch of little buggers back then.I suppose there ability to do damage has increased somewhat since then and no doubt so has America's.So even if this all followed a similar pattern to back then it would likely result in a much greater amount of damage and loss of life.

That would be some show right in the middle of the current Arab spring.I know Arabs aren't exactly enamored with Persians but I'm just thinking there are way more and better equipped 'rage-boys' in that region now than there were 25 odd years ago.

Obviously I'm not well versed in these things just thinking out loud I suppose.

29 posted on 01/03/2012 4:10:57 AM PST by mitch5501 (My guitar wants to kill your momma!)
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To: silverleaf

The only way to sink a modern american aircraft carrier is with a nuke.....


30 posted on 01/03/2012 4:14:43 AM PST by joe fonebone (Project Gunwalker, this will make watergate look like the warm up band......)
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To: Sub-Driver

31 posted on 01/03/2012 4:15:03 AM PST by floridarunner01
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To: Sub-Driver

32 posted on 01/03/2012 4:23:55 AM PST by Bon mots ("When seconds count, the police are just minutes away...")
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To: Sub-Driver

33 posted on 01/03/2012 4:27:54 AM PST by Bon mots ("When seconds count, the police are just minutes away...")
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To: mitch5501
Can Iran actually close the straight?

They can certainly close it, which only initially requires that Lloyds substantially raise their rates.

That said, they can't keep it closed very long, but shy of invading Iran, they could continue to launch shore based anti-ship missiles at will.

The biggest reason why they won't, is that they will be hurt worse than anyone else by a closure.

34 posted on 01/03/2012 4:29:42 AM PST by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
"I get the distinct feeling, they could lose a shooting war with Iraq."

From here in Oz it looks a lot like you folks have little confidence your current admin could do much other than give aid and comfort to your enemies.It makes me nervous.

35 posted on 01/03/2012 4:35:09 AM PST by mitch5501 (My guitar wants to kill your momma!)
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To: F15Eagle

The 2012 war with Iran has been predestined since November 2008. War with Iran is the only possible event that could cause the re election of Obama.

So saith bert


36 posted on 01/03/2012 4:36:33 AM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 ..... Crucifixion is coming)
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To: mitch5501
You might as well paint a thirty foot high middle finger on the side of the hull.

How about a giant cartoon Mohamed painted on the landing area :-)

37 posted on 01/03/2012 4:38:35 AM PST by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
That was during the so-called "tanker war", when Iraq was taking potshots at tankers because the Gulf countries were supporting Iran against them during the Iran-Iraq war.

Iran and Iraq were both shooting at the others' tankers. And the Gulf countries supported Iraq not Iran. Outstanding Iraqi debt to Kuwait was one of Saddam's likely reasons for invading.

38 posted on 01/03/2012 4:41:18 AM PST by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: mitch5501

I am serious. The current administration is the one giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

They are hostile to the U.S. military and sympathetic to countries that wish us harm. They will impose so many restrictions on U.S. forces that they will be getting people killed. Moderation in warfare is the height of folly, as a certain British admiral said at the start of World War I concerning the U-Boats. (He correctly warned that the Germans would not long restrain their U-Boats, and he was right.)

Since Korea, the U.S. has fought our wars with one hand tied behind our backs. At some point it has to stop.


39 posted on 01/03/2012 4:43:37 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (Ceterum autem censeo, Obama delenda est.)
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To: SampleMan
LOL!

Or,if you prefer, with him bent over the business end of a 20" gun turret.

40 posted on 01/03/2012 4:43:49 AM PST by mitch5501 (My guitar wants to kill your momma!)
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To: mitch5501
You should be worried... we have a traitor in the White House. He is celebrated today because 47% of Americans hate America. We are working on it... believe me... the elections in 2012 will either see a revival of the American Way or the end of Freedom and Liberty.

LLS

41 posted on 01/03/2012 4:44:01 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (ONWARD CHRISTIAN SOLDIERS!)
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To: mitch5501

True, because either way, it blows.


42 posted on 01/03/2012 4:45:48 AM PST by edpc (Wilby 2012)
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To: SampleMan
Thanks for the correction. Same thing though, we got between them. The Stark got shot, apparently deliberately, when the Iraqis tried to discourage the U.S. from escorting tankers. The Stark was performing engine tests required for an Atlantic crossing, she was due to rotate home. It was 0300 HR local time and the only officer with the keys that would free the weapons system was three decks below conducting the engine tests when the Iraqis fired. Had he been on the bridge (actually, they should have had a firing solution on the shooter and been painting him with fire control radar before he shot) they would probably have defended themselves and taken out the attacking aircraft as well.
43 posted on 01/03/2012 4:49:50 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (Ceterum autem censeo, Obama delenda est.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
"Since Korea, the U.S. has fought our wars with one hand tied behind our backs"

That is the precise thought I've had for a long time now.Add to that a media of screeching harpies falling over themselves to print "we just can't win this war" by all and any who would utter it and my admiration for your fighting men and women goes up another notch.

God has richly blessed the USA but right now things look ominous.

44 posted on 01/03/2012 4:52:51 AM PST by mitch5501 (My guitar wants to kill your momma!)
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To: SampleMan

“How about a giant cartoon Mohamed painted on the landing area :-) “

Love it!


45 posted on 01/03/2012 5:03:41 AM PST by DonkeyBonker
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To: mitch5501; Forward the Light Brigade; F15Eagle; RC one; brooklin; expat1000; FreedomPoster; ...
Can Iran actually close the straight? Or is this just more hot air mother of all blah blah blah?

No, not really. Their list of viable options is as follows:

a) Threat posturing - Make credible threats that affect the cost of shipping. This is analogous to a criminal taking out a knife, flicking it about and making sure you see it. That is threat posturing. Any time you see that in the streets it is because the person is either trying to have you give him something (e.g. a wallet) or trying to scare you off. It is not an attack, just some idiot fluffing his chest and showing his knife. Why? Because (to stick with the knife example) real knife attacks do not include posturing. Most people attacked with knives do not even know a knife was in the picture until they have been stabbed several times. Threat posturing can lead to a real attack, but the fact there is threat posturing means that an attack is not the main idea. Looking at Iran launching all of those missiles and making claims about stealthy missile this and cruise missile that looks like posturing. The only real threat from that is increased cost of shipping due to a rise in insurance costs (insurance companies have to adjust their pricing for ships going through the Strait of Hormuz).

b) A direct statement that shipping from Country X to Country Y should stop. Now, things have become more interesting. This is not just someone flicking a balisong and trying to appear tough - this is someone flicking the knife and threatening to use it on your 9 year old daughter. Iran has just said ships from X cannot pass, and if they try there will be 'consequences.' This will have several effects - for one insurance will not just go up but shipping from those countries will stop (not many people will risk a ship to call a bluff, let alone commercial entities). Another effect will be that the USN (and the navies of affected nations - e.g. Saudi Arabia) will be forced to take some action, which at this stage will be to act as escorts for any ships that want to call the bluff and run the gauntlet. Inevitably there will be at least one ship that will try to make it through, and at this point Iran will have to decide whether or not it will act. There is a chance it will do nothing (and make whatever claim it wants to justify the lack of action - maybe saying that for the sake of world peace it opted not to act or some other face saving statement). However, there is a chance it will do something - this could be more threat posturing (maybe another 'exercise' where they launch a missile) or an actual attack. It will not matter whether it is an exercise or real - any action that appears to be a real threat will be taken care of. This will most probably be in the form of limited action by the US (i.e. interception of the missile if it is an actual attack, followed by destruction of the specific missile battery whether or not it is a real attack or an exercise. It will be a limited response because no one is really looking for a full-scale war with Iran no matter what anyone may tell you). This is when it becomes an exercise in ever-greater game theory ...will Iran respond to the limited attack on the specific missile battery with a major offensive, or will it smutter and mutter and let things rest? To use my knife analogy - the perp threatens your daughter, at which point you rush in, disarm the knife, and pummel him with some rather nice punches. Now, the perp has been defeated ...what does he do? Will he take his beating like a man and go, or will he try and escalate? Maybe whip out a gun or have his pals show up? (Again, in the street one of the more dangerous situations is when YOU beat up someone ...I know of a couple of instances when the beaten person calls his friends or pulls a gun. The best thing to do after being victorious in a fight is to go away ...staying can be quite lethal). Anyways, what happens after this depends on what Iran decides to do.

c) Act-the-fool. Here Iran decides to be silly. It uses its D-E submarines to place mines in the Strait, and even does one or two torpedo attacks on commercial shipping. It also sends some missile boats and/or D-E submarines to try and engage USN assets. The missile boats are not much of a threat (and their missiles can be defeated by USN soft kill and hard kill counter-measures), while the D-E submarines are a much greater threat. Anyways, this is an act of war (not just an act of aggression that the US can try and respond to in a limited manner, but rather something that is basically a full blown fight). Basically here the perp has whipped out a wheel-gun and is trying to go all Dirty Harry on you. You have no option but to kill him now. The Iranian navy as well as the Iranian Republican Guard navy do have some dangerous assets (as mentioned the mines as well as the D-E submarines will not be particularly liked by USN planners, especially considering the littoral nature of the Strait), but all the same the USN will win. Definitely win. However, there is a chance that this might a scenario where, for the longest time, a USN ship is sunk. It may be interesting to see how the US media and population digest the sinking of (say) an Arleigh Burke destroyer (note that a good deal of Chinese strategy in the Taiwanese Strait, another area that is 'interesting,' is to make it quite inhospitable to USN assets whereby they run a good chance of being sunk, hence the concentration on asymmetrical means of warfare. Now the Chinese have enough money to spend of more conventional ways of war, but they still have asymmetrical tactics that are geared against specific USN assets). Furthermore, it is quite likely that any anti-Iran strategy by the US will still be limited to naval action (destroy and/or degrade Iranian naval capability) as well as precision strikes on inland targets (the nuclear sites). I would find it quite difficult to believe that the US will pursue a broader strategy that calls for boots on the ground. Now, our game theory experiment continues to expand in binomial fashion ...what does Iran do now? It can, again, take its beating like a man and do nothing, or it can escalate again.

d) Gehenna option: In this option Iran decides to really act the fool. There are various places that are within range of its missiles. It can send some over to Israel, it can target Abu Dhabi (and maybe even Dubai) in the emirates, Saudi Arabia, and there are some reports that they can even reach some parts of Europe. These will be conventional attacks (although, of course, Iran does have chemical and biological agents, but for the sake of keeping this exercise simple let us ignore these for the moment). Please note that the reason for the billions of Dollars spent by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on American (and Western) arms technology has been due to one reason ...Iran. There is little love lost between the Persians and the Arabs. The actions of Iran have basically led to a 'regional war.' At this point it becomes harder to game this ...but let it suffice to say that the issue of oil prices will definitely be trending upwards.

Anyways, can Iran close the Strait? Not really ...even though it is a 'narrow' area (the proper shipping lane is around 10 miles across), one would have to sink dozens upon dozens of ships to 'close' it. They can close it through attacks (making ships refuse to risk steaming in the region), but that would bring retribution that Iran may not be willing to take upon. Even though Ahmadenijad is a mad chap, he may opt for a strategy that would alienate him from the Ayatollahs (the real powers in Iran, some of who do not support him) as well as risk the military brass simply killing him (Persians are not stupid people - they simply have stupid leadership. Ahmadenijad may wake up to a lead sandwich if he opted for measures that his Generals believe are suicide).

Thus, this is most likely hot air mixed with some real threat posturing (again, the chap twirling his butterfly knife trying to be all Bruce Lee on you). Hot air with bluster. The problem with threat posturing is that it can very easily lead to a real fight (and more). For instance, if some chap came up to you and whipped out a knife, there is a very good chance that you may take it 'seriously,' and proceed to introduce the chap to your 'pet' .45. Especially if he starts flipping that blade towards your 9 year old daughter.

It is threat posturing, but the moment you put certain things into play the world becomes a casino.

46 posted on 01/03/2012 5:09:37 AM PST by spetznaz (Nuclear-tipped Ballistic Missiles: The Ultimate Phallic Symbol)
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To: SampleMan
Can Iran actually close the straight?
The biggest reason why they won't, is that they will be hurt worse than anyone else by a closure.


Could you elaborate a bit on that, for the benefit of those unfamiliar with the dynamics of the situation?
47 posted on 01/03/2012 5:11:58 AM PST by mkjessup (Jimmy Carter is the Skidmark in the panties of American history, 0bama is the yellow stain in front.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
I was sleeping in the bunk area on the USS George Philip (FFG 12) when USS Stark (FFG 31) was hit and the very same area was incinerated. I was a midshipman then.

The FFGs were never the most robost ships, usually referred to has having the Helen Keller weapons system, but using their CIWS would have been a whole lot preferable to not using it.

48 posted on 01/03/2012 5:11:58 AM PST by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

..................

49 posted on 01/03/2012 5:12:10 AM PST by SJackson (The Pilgrims¬óDoing the jobs Native Americans wouldn't do !)
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To: DonkeyBonker
Photobucket This is why we are so hosed with King Obama at the helm
50 posted on 01/03/2012 5:13:31 AM PST by halfright ("Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading". -TJefferson)
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