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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: ari-freedom

If Muslim terrorists were simply excluded from the United States and/or deported, there wouldn’t be Muslim terrorist attacks here.

Instead of changing our immigration laws to ban Muslim terrorists, we spent over a trillion dollars in Iraq trying to find “Weapons of Mass Destruction,” and then trying to build a “dumocracy” there.


2,101 posted on 01/04/2012 10:22:22 AM PST by WilliamHouston
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To: jeltz25; RitaOK; Tennessean4Bush; BunnySlippers; StAnDeliver; C210N; bvw; idkfa; teg_76; StarFan; ..
A general ping to all of you... thanks for your comments on the live thread last night. That was sure a wild ride!

I want to say another word about the benefits of the “pajamas media” and the internet in general. I go way back in politics to the days that computers were nonexistent in all but the most important national campaigns and precinct-by-precinct totals were being recorded in chalk on blackboards by people getting results screamed at them by other people sitting in a rack of rotary-dial phones and taking phone calls from still other people getting the results straight from polling places or the downtown county courthouse. If they didn't get rid of it long ago, my parents have a photo of me as one of those people with different phones in each ear held up by my shoulders while trying to write down election results with one hand — probably the 1976 or 1978 elections, or maybe the 1980 election.

To be able to get live results like this via the internet and have live commentary straight from people walking out of the precincts is fantastic. Never could have remotely dreamed of this thirty years ago.

2,102 posted on 01/04/2012 10:31:19 AM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: darrellmaurina
I fully agree that places like South Carolina and Florida are better predictors of the eventual nominee, but they're better predictors only because the weaker candidates were culled out earlier by Iowa and New Hampshire.

Great overall analysis, Darrell. I like it.

2,103 posted on 01/04/2012 10:56:27 AM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: darrellmaurina
Agreed on all counts. What even greater is that not only can we get the news in real time, but sometimes we can even do something about it; e.g. RatherGate.
2,104 posted on 01/04/2012 11:36:53 AM PST by Slings and Arrows (You can't have Ingsoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: BenKenobi

Me too. We paid in to that “Social Scarcity” system all those years, which went to support the elders in our society. That was okay; but I agree things have to change. It’s not sustainable at this point, so we’ve got to elect people who aren’t riding the pork gravy train by buying voters on the pork gravy train. - I think Paul has probably delivered the pork to his constituents, hence his reelections.

Oh, we were young once, too, not so long ago really.

We’re in Tennessee, and where we were, we had a pretty good education system that included the disabled. Of course, I only got as far as graduating high school, no college, so don’t know how it was in college.

Heck; if you’re artsy at all, produce something exotic, eccentric and artsy to sell. Make your own job if you can. - We have also simplified, simplified, simplified our lives and are thankful for food, clothing and shelter.

God bless you.


2,105 posted on 01/04/2012 11:41:54 AM PST by Twinkie (John 3:16)
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To: Michael Barnes

Very well, Potty Mouth. - No. Your group elected Obama and the Democrat/liberal crooks over the years. START ELECTING A DIFFERENT KIND OF PEOPLE. If you’re young, the only way the government system will change is IF you change it. You all are gonna have to live under what you elect after we’re long dead.

We did take a dose of Government, because we TRUSTED it to be basically honest; and while we were sidetracked working our rear ends off, LBJ and crew were busily looting the SS “lockbox” (Al Gore’s term for the SS “trust” fund).

So, HOP TO IT! Don’t be an indentured slave.


2,106 posted on 01/04/2012 11:55:09 AM PST by Twinkie (John 3:16)
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To: Theophilus

I suspect Dr. Paul has delivered his share of the Washington pork to his constituents, else he wouldn’t have been reelected so long so handily. - We have got to watch these politicians, all of whom talk a good game.

Oh, good for you homeschooling your children. It’s the only way to go this day and time.


2,107 posted on 01/04/2012 11:59:57 AM PST by Twinkie (John 3:16)
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To: Forty-Niner
I wonder how many votes Paul would have gotten without his comrades on the left? Not many, because conservatives can't support the guy.

Have you noticed today how Paulites are cheering the leftist attacks beginning against Santorum?

And they think we don't notice. :)

2,108 posted on 01/04/2012 12:00:21 PM PST by ohioWfan (Proud Mom of a Bronze Star winner!)
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To: WilliamHouston
Independents = Liberals who are afraid to admit what they really are.

Paul wouldn't have gotten diddleysquat without his leftist support.

It is what it is. Paul is a liberal tightwad.

2,109 posted on 01/04/2012 12:02:43 PM PST by ohioWfan (Proud Mom of a Bronze Star winner!)
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To: WilliamHouston

I will ask a third time: “There always has been, is now and always will be a dominant world military power. Just what county or group would you like to see be that power?”


2,110 posted on 01/04/2012 12:14:33 PM PST by Proud2BeRight
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To: Slings and Arrows; Windflier; All
2,103 posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2012 12:56:27 PM by Windflier: “Great overall analysis, Darrell. I like it.”

2,104 posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2012 1:36:53 PM by Slings and Arrows: “Agreed on all counts. What even greater is that not only can we get the news in real time, but sometimes we can even do something about it; e.g. RatherGate.”

Thanks to both of you...

I really do need to get back to work; I'm letting my business suffer based on something that I care passionately about, namely, getting a solid Republican nominated and elected.

For whatever it's worth, I am totally in agreement with Slings and Arrows about Rathergate. That's part of how I found out about Free Republic.

Read this link to a profile of my work in Editor & Publisher magazine if you want to learn more about my views on the role of media in the internet age:

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/Features/Article/Six-Newspaper-Entrepreneurs-and-Their-Road-to-Success

I downplayed my conservative politics in the interview to avoid needless offense, but if you add that piece of background information to my comments about the importance of returning to an 1800s model of aggressively competing news media, you'll see what I hope will happen to the news media in the future.

Reporters used to be told to make the New York Times, their statewide newspaper, and any local competing media operations the start of every day, and keep up with the Associated Press feed throughout the day. I can't avoid the New York Times — it's critical that I understand the mentality of those who run Washington — but for my work, Military.com has long since replaced the role of the statewide newspaper (the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Kansas City Star are virtually irrelevant to rural Missouri) and Free Republic is much better than the Associated Press in keeping me informed about important breaking news.

There is no possible way I could ever have anticipated something like this happening in the early 1980s when CompuServe first started putting a half-dozen newspapers online for national readers, or even a decade ago. Technology doesn't solve every problem, but it sure seems to be solving the problem of monopoly leftist liberal media disconnected from the desires of their readers.

2,111 posted on 01/04/2012 12:24:18 PM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: darrellmaurina
Thanks to both of you...

I really do need to get back to work; I'm letting my business suffer based on something that I care passionately about, namely, getting a solid Republican nominated and elected.

You're welcome, Darrell. You and I both need to get back to work. I wish I knew how many precious production hours I've lost since Obama was elected. The man has the producer class so upset that he's actually lowered the GNP because we can't stop talking about it.

2,112 posted on 01/04/2012 12:51:03 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: darrellmaurina

There’s no doubt that we need some new media models, if only because the old one is dieing an economic death of 1000 cuts.


2,113 posted on 01/04/2012 1:08:46 PM PST by Slings and Arrows (You can't have Ingsoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: DCBryan1

[smiles] Much appreciated.


2,114 posted on 01/04/2012 1:08:57 PM PST by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list)
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To: grey_whiskers

From reading a number of your posts I have concluded you simply don’t suffer fools easily. Keep in mind that we are not all as well informed and mentally quick as you are. That is not sarcasm.


2,115 posted on 01/04/2012 1:13:11 PM PST by Mind-numbed Robot
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To: ohioWfan

“And they think we don’t notice. :)”

I have never viewed Libertarians as being particularly “Conservative.” While they do entertain some “conservative” views, they cover their liberal/moderate views by wraping themselves in their interpretation of the Constitution. JMHO


2,116 posted on 01/04/2012 1:37:30 PM PST by Forty-Niner (The barely bare, berry bear formerly known as..........Ursus Arctos Horribilis.)
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To: TheOldLady
I smell burnt hair.

Thank You for the ping TOL! :-)

2,117 posted on 01/04/2012 1:41:06 PM PST by South40 (Just say NO to pro-ILLEGAL alien RINOS!)
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To: Slings and Arrows; Windflier
2,112 posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2012 2:51:03 PM by Windflier: “You're welcome, Darrell. You and I both need to get back to work. I wish I knew how many precious production hours I've lost since Obama was elected. The man has the producer class so upset that he's actually lowered the GNP because we can't stop talking about it.”

LOL... except we both know it's not funny, unfortunately.

2,113 posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:08:46 PM by Slings and Arrows: “There’s no doubt that we need some new media models, if only because the old one is dieing an economic death of 1000 cuts.”

Definitely right.

I've watched the collapse of the traditional print media model over the last 25 years from the inside, and it's not pretty.

Lots of what's wrong can be described as the logical consequences of a non-competitive socialistic mentality in which there are few incentives to succeed and sometimes actual **DISINCENTIVES** to save money or be more productive. Communism didn't work in the Soviet Union for its industrial production and we shouldn't expect a system of media monopolies to work much better in America.

However, even well-run conservative newspapers are faced with a technological crisis. I saw that in the now-bankrupt Freedom Communications (owner of the Colorado Springs Gazette and Orange County Register). The Washington Times is in major trouble, and the Wall Street Journal would be in trouble if it weren't for Rupert Murdoch's decision to buy the paper for its inherent value covering the financial markets before economics tore apart its newsgathering ability.

I believe the model I'm dealing with works at a small local level, but I have no solutions for the economic side of how to run a metro newspaper with the need for dozens or hundreds of reporters.

Something must be done, and I have confidence that long term the free market will find solutions, but things will be brutal in the short term and probably for a long time down the road.

Anyway, back to work... a police chase just ended in a car wreck and I need to go see what happened.

2,118 posted on 01/04/2012 1:46:19 PM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: South40

I’m just glad that you’re still thanking me instead of telling me to get out of your comments, LOL!

You’re welcome, friend.


2,119 posted on 01/04/2012 1:50:24 PM PST by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list)
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To: Forty-Niner
I share your opinion.

The problem is that some of the areas where they are clearly liberal make them, IMO, dangerous.

Ron Paul would be a disastrous President, and the fact that he got these numbers in Iowa, even with the obvious influx of left-leaning independents, is scary.

Fortunately, he hasn't got a snowball's chance of winning the nomination. I only hope that he has the ethical make-up to not run third party.

Though I'm not sure what that hope would be based on.....

2,120 posted on 01/04/2012 2:38:15 PM PST by ohioWfan (Proud Mom of a Bronze Star winner!)
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To: TheOldLady
I’m just glad that you’re still thanking me instead of telling me to get out of your comments, LOL!

When did I ever say that?

2,121 posted on 01/04/2012 2:51:22 PM PST by South40 (Just say NO to pro-ILLEGAL alien RINOS!)
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To: South40

LOL! You never said it, but there have been so many ZOTs lately, I’m afraid that people will get sick of the pings!

So long as you’re still thanking me, everything’s just great, LOL!


2,122 posted on 01/04/2012 3:09:38 PM PST by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list)
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To: All
Okay!! I have tried on Google to log onto several different Santorum websites for President.

They either say they are unsafe or " re-direct cannot be completed"! Is Google trying to stiffle or cause problems with his websites? Just wondering.....

2,123 posted on 01/04/2012 3:13:33 PM PST by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: TheOldLady
Sick of your pings?! Bite your tongue! (or fingers)

I look forward to your pings; they have much to offer. They are informative and I love the graphics!

You can ping me any day and all day. Just don't try excluding me. :-)

2,124 posted on 01/04/2012 3:16:43 PM PST by South40 (Just say NO to pro-ILLEGAL alien RINOS!)
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To: TheOldLady; momtothree
I’ve had some of my best tummy-aches-from-laughing courtesy of 50mm. He’s a great guy with a wonderful sense of humor and some wicked-good photoshop skills.

Thank you, TOL! The laughing dog is not my work, however.

2,125 posted on 01/04/2012 3:31:14 PM PST by 50mm (Trust nobody and you'll never be disappointed.)
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To: ICCtheWay

And despite your best hopes any lawsuits will be laughed out of court and Rubio will be sworn in, most likely without even giving as much as 5 minutes thought to the lawsuit, that’s if his lawyers even decided to bother with telling him. It would be like his wife telling him “honey there’s a fly in the kitchen”.


2,126 posted on 01/04/2012 3:45:48 PM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: 50mm
You're still a great guy with a wonderful sense of humor and wicked-good photoshop skills. So you borrowed the dog. So?   ;-D
2,127 posted on 01/04/2012 3:47:57 PM PST by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list)
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To: ohioWfan

“Fortunately, he hasn’t got a snowball’s chance of winning the nomination”

The one saving grace that makes him tolerable to most....at best a sometimes interesting sideshow.


2,128 posted on 01/04/2012 4:17:33 PM PST by Forty-Niner (The barely bare, berry bear formerly known as..........Ursus Arctos Horribilis.)
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To: darrellmaurina

Welcome to Free Republic. You are so delightful to hear from. And WE are mostly all ornerier than we’re suppose to be, sometimes. HA!

YOU should write up a Vanity for us and post it on FR. It would be a great read for us, and this a perfect political season to hear it!! Please.


2,129 posted on 01/04/2012 5:47:16 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: TheOldLady

No wonder the lights were flickering here.


2,130 posted on 01/04/2012 6:25:02 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Merry Christmas, Happy New Year! May 2013 be even Happier!)
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To: SunkenCiv
Lights were flickering? Ooooh! Sorry about that.   ;-)
2,131 posted on 01/04/2012 7:17:23 PM PST by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list)
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To: AFveteran; JosephMama
These bible thumpers who think abortion and gay marriage are the most important things right now need to get real.

Glad to see you got the zot, Tweedledum and Tweedledumber.

First, if you listened to Santorum instead of letting the media do your thinking for you, you would know the guy is focused on the economy and has plans to offer.

Second, if you think the death of 40 or 50 million innocent Americans is not a serious issue and is only the concern of "bible-thumpoers," you are as classy, conservative and patriotic as Janeane Garofalo.

So, in conclusion...

Get Bent.

2,132 posted on 01/04/2012 7:45:25 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Ron Paul is to the Constitution as Fred Phelps is to the Bible.)
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To: World'sGoneInsane

Praise God. I woke up this morning to find that all is as it should be. Bachmann is gone and Perry is still in the race. I was devastated to hear last night that Perry, a man that could lead this nation, was gone and the opportunist Michelle was still in.

I never said anything, but the first time my inner bell rang with Michelle was when she stood out on the Capitol steps egging on we teapartiers. While I appreciated her doing so and I appreciated it, down deep inside, I knew she should not be doing this as a member of Congress. I thought then, “What’s in it for her?” We soon found out. After the debates, I believe Michelle is all about what’s in it for Michelle. I hope I am wrong and she proves me thusly. I would like to be able to support her, but after her slamming all the other candidates, I cannot.


2,133 posted on 01/04/2012 8:31:34 PM PST by publana (Beware the olive branch extended by a Dem for it disguises a clenched fist.)
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To: publana
After the debates, I believe Michelle is all about what’s in it for Michelle.

Yes, she used the "I" word too much. She probably would have done better to direct her speeches to the crowd and the country.

I guess she was trying to show she had a record to stand on, but failed to connect with the audience. Her shrill attacks on the other candidates did not sit well with me.

2,134 posted on 01/04/2012 9:54:12 PM PST by World'sGoneInsane (We Can Take OUR Country Back--Perry 2012)
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To: RitaOK
2,129 posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2012 7:47:16 PM by RitaOK: “Welcome to Free Republic. You are so delightful to hear from. And WE are mostly all ornerier than we’re suppose to be, sometimes. HA!”

Thank you for the welcome, but I've been here since 2006 officially, and was reading long before that. I finally signed up half a decade ago when I wanted to post something. For a long time after that I was still mostly lurking. I've probably written more in the last six months than the previous five years combined, but that's mostly due to the election, and especially because I am unhappy with the Republican candidate selection.

I've really spent **WAY** too much time posting on this board in the last few months and especially the last few weeks. I need to go back to mostly reading.

2,129 posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2012 7:47:16 PM by RitaOK: “YOU should write up a Vanity for us and post it on FR. It would be a great read for us, and this a perfect political season to hear it!! Please.”

I appreciate the suggestion, but I'm not really sure what good a vanity post would do. The article profiling my work from the September 2011 edition of “Editor & Publisher” magazine which I linked to in a previous post on this thread outlines what I do pretty well.

I guess my reticence boils down to the fact that I don't think I'm very interesting. I do have a certain amount of inside knowledge of Iowa politics, but even there, I am not an expert. The situation facing us in the next few weeks with Republican primaries that could quite literally wreck the party is far more interesting than me personally.

I have some very strong views about what we **DON'T** want as a Republican nominee, and those views are in large measure mainstream positions at Free Republic. When I see people coming on here who seem to be trying to disrupt conservative thought and damage candidates rather than trying to have a serious discussion of who would be the best candidate, I get angry. I sometimes respond angrily, but since other people here usually are quicker to yell at obvious offenders, more often I sit down and try to figure out a way to prove that the people attacking conservatives for no good reason are wrong rather than just yelling at them, “WRONG, WRONG WRONG! YOU'RE TOTALLY WRONG!”

Yelling sometimes is necessary, but using cold hard facts to calmly document and clearly prove one's case usually works better.

2,135 posted on 01/05/2012 4:05:06 AM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: floridarunner01
The youth is actually quite simple to figure out. 1. They don’t like the wars. They are sick of it. 2. They are more libertarian than anything else. They want less government control and enforcement across the board. 3. They dont care about social issues. Even the young Republicans really don’t care that much

Much to be said about this.

1. It's a good point. I'm sick of go-nowhere, why-are-we-there wars also. I feel like we got Bin Laden and the whole purpose of dealing effectively with Islamic terrorists seems lost or confused. Bring the troops home until or unless we have clear and convincing winning goals. But Paul's stick-your-head-in-the-sand isolationist approach is archaic and not in America's best interests. I support Reagan's precise intelligence and strike-force approach in defense of American interests and support freedom fighters around the world. I don't support Bush's baseball-bat approach of clumsily and almost mindlessly invading other countries in the name of "promoting democracy."

2. Also a lot of merit but not without an appreciation and adherence to our U. S. Constitution which accomplishes limited government but under the rule of law, not the rule of the whims of man (today French revolution, tomorrow the guillotine).

3. Not so good. Social issues drive the future of a country. The lack of Biblical education and understanding is a major driver here. People need a moral and spiritual compass or a society drifts aimlessly. Not only that, a society void of Biblical and spiritual truth, health, and understanding becomes gullible ("those that don't stand for something will fall for anything"). That's why we have Obama.

2,136 posted on 01/05/2012 2:45:06 PM PST by PapaNew
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