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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: onyx

Romney may be a fraud, and I believe Santorum could beat him one-on-one, but the other candidates s are sticking around until they nominate Mittens. They will make GHWB and Dole very satisfied.


451 posted on 01/03/2012 6:22:52 PM PST by Theodore R. (I'll still vote for Santorum if he is on the April 3 ballot.)
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To: Free Vulcan; All

Perry just won his first county, Clayton County, a river county on the far northeast end of the state. Low turnout but it’s a win nonetheless.

Clayton
See All ›
Candidate Votes %
Perry 20 27%
Romney 17 23%
Paul 16 22%
Santorum 13 18%
Bachmann 5 7%
Gingrich 4 6%


452 posted on 01/03/2012 6:23:08 PM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: TitansAFC

I’m watching CNN, can’t stomach FOX anymore.


453 posted on 01/03/2012 6:23:30 PM PST by alicewonders ((GO PERRY!))
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15% Reporting

Candidate    Votes   % 
 Paul        3,581 24% 
 Romney      3,466 24% 
 Santorum    3,442 24% 
 Gingrich    1,956 14% 
 Perry       1,439 10% 
 Bachmann      929 7% 
 Huntsman       92 <1% 
 Cain            4 <1% 

 
 

454 posted on 01/03/2012 6:23:42 PM PST by deport
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To: Free Vulcan
Well that totally sucked.

Reporting from our local Precinct D54 (Davenport - Scott County):

Paul 26
Santorum 17
Romney 15
Gingrich 5
Huntsman 3
Bachmann 2
Perry 1

Excuse me while I go puke.

455 posted on 01/03/2012 6:24:01 PM PST by 2111USMC (Not a hard man to track. Leaves dead men wherever he goes.)
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To: manc

The breakdown in Iowa is clear: 58 percent of under 30 voters went for Paul, 15 percent for Romney, and 10 percent for Santorum in Iowa.

What does that tell you? Iowa is one of the most socially conservative states in the nation. The people who are saying that Paul is “nuts” are overwhelmingly over the age of 45.

Truth be told, every single time Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum talk about bombing Iran, they are the ones who sound nuts to Gen X’ers and Millennials.

So nuts that many of these people voted for Obama in 2008 (or sat out the election) for no other reason than opposition John McCain and the Iraq War.

Most young people don’t think a gazillion dollars should be squandered on a neocon pipe dream like bringing “dumocracy” or “women’s rights” to Iraq and Iran.


456 posted on 01/03/2012 6:24:04 PM PST by WilliamHouston
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To: WilliamHouston
I've been around since the 60’s and then some. Been to Woodstock, been to the Army. College kids were liberal then, they’re liberal now. Some fashion themselves libertarians but most are simply liberal and the social liberal in the race is Paul which is why he does well in the college towns in Iowa. Not 1 in 20 college kids will ever lace on a combat boot and absent a draft could give two shits about the rest of us who did or those who will.
457 posted on 01/03/2012 6:24:08 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: onyx

She is flat broke. If she stays in...she will have to go into personal debt. Her ad comparing herself to Margaret Thatcher was inane


458 posted on 01/03/2012 6:24:14 PM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: darrellmaurina

YEAH!


459 posted on 01/03/2012 6:24:19 PM PST by BunnySlippers (I LOVE BULL MARKETS . . .)
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It looks like it will be a terrific night for the “Not Mitt” movement. If Romney had scored a convincing win in Iowa, he could have clinched the deal with a convincing win in New Hampshire. Looks like the big stories tomorrow will be Paul and Santorum. That takes at least one day away from Romney and he only has 7 to go before his assured win. Then he has to go to the South and try to make his sale there amongst a winnowed field.


460 posted on 01/03/2012 6:24:22 PM PST by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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To: StAnDeliver

its time for the GOP to look at who is allowed to run on our ticket, no more nuts like Paul he is a libertarian let him run on their ticket, no more liberals, libertarians and Dems voting in our elections.

No wonder the GOP shake and scratch their heads when it comes to elections, they need to have elections for republicans


461 posted on 01/03/2012 6:24:31 PM PST by manc (Marriage is between one man and one woman.Trolls get a life, I HATE OUR BIAS LIBERAL MEDIA.)
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To: Palladin

I don’t think there’s much doubt about that.


462 posted on 01/03/2012 6:24:31 PM PST by Rational Thought
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To: Luke21

On Cavuto, the old hack, Alan Simpson is bashing Santorum for being “too religious” and not recognizing the benefits of that good old “medical procedure,” partial birth abortion.” <<<<

Good Grief. Quit watching that crap. Let’s boycott the big boy FOX tonight. You’ve got all of us who won’t jerk your chain like that. At least on abortion!


463 posted on 01/03/2012 6:25:15 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: darrellmaurina
"The numbers are bad. REALLY BAD. If this entrance poll data proves correct, it shows that Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are both getting large percentages of the evangelical Christian vote and of self-identified strong conservatives."

People are so angry with what's happening in DC, it's beginning to metastisize into cancer...and Paulbot is a physician...

464 posted on 01/03/2012 6:25:43 PM PST by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: deport

Looks like the Paulbots have their hands deep in the pockets of the Obama Machine.....He’d love nothing better then to debate with Ron Paul...He’d blow Ron PAul over with a feather.


465 posted on 01/03/2012 6:26:07 PM PST by caww
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To: Twinkie
So, SHUT UP and MAN UP LIKE WE DID!!!

Shuddup...Man up??? Take a good dose of Government like YOU did?? A lot of us DO NOT WANT part of a government system, but because YOU DID, we are all supposed to be indentured slaves to your bidding?

Screw you..

466 posted on 01/03/2012 6:26:17 PM PST by Michael Barnes (Obamaa+ Downgrade)
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To: Berlin_Freeper
>>> Gingrich/Santorum 2012 Santorum/Gingrich 2012 Take your pick. <<

Either scenario would cause me to lose a lot of respect for Santorum. He doesn't need a backstabbing scumbag on the ticket with him. Also, given how weak most of the current crop of GOP candidates is, he'd be much better off without an also-ran from the presidential primaries. Names like Susana Martinez, Paul LePage, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and Allan West come to mind.

Same deal with the freepers who fantasized about a Cain/Gingrich or Gingrich/Cain ticket. NO NEWT!

467 posted on 01/03/2012 6:26:23 PM PST by BillyBoy (Illegals for Perry/Gingrich 2012 : Don't be "heartless"/ Be "humane")
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

It is early yet...waiting to see what happens after Des Moines comes in


468 posted on 01/03/2012 6:26:23 PM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: altura

5th and 6th place finishers in IA always drop out. Sorry.

http://iowacaucus.com/results/

Go Santorum 23%+!!! Could be good for 1st
Go Newt 13%+!!! Good enough for 4th

Perry 10% and Michele 6% = BOTH drop out Wednesday : ( .. : (

And Willard could finish in 3rd very easily which is pathetic for Mr. Flopney.


469 posted on 01/03/2012 6:26:49 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Rubio 2012 with Cain, Bolton, Santorum, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: Kenny

You picked my order exactly. And it ain’t over till the fat lady sings, sometime in March! :)


470 posted on 01/03/2012 6:26:52 PM PST by seekthetruth (I want a Commander In Chief who honors and supports our Military!)
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To: Proud2BeRight

I don’t care about being the “dominant military power.” What’s the point of being the “dominant military power” when Mexico is allowed to invade and colonize California and the Southwest?

The military is not used to protect our own homeland. The government allows Muslim terrorists to walk right into the United States through the front door and establish colonies in American cities.


471 posted on 01/03/2012 6:27:01 PM PST by WilliamHouston
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To: Reagan69

” What happened to Michele Thatcher?” <<<

LOL! Michele Thatcher!


472 posted on 01/03/2012 6:27:11 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: BillyBoy

GO NEWT!


473 posted on 01/03/2012 6:27:40 PM PST by Parley Baer
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To: Twinkie
We are retired after YEARS of paying through the nose for YOUR grandparent’s SOCIAL SECURITY and MEDICARE for YEARS, and YEARS, and YEARS .

You and I are sadly the victim of a colossal ponzi scheme. Take comfort in knowing that since I homeschool all of my considerable brood, you have not paid a red cent for their government EDUCATION! God bless Dr. Paul!

474 posted on 01/03/2012 6:27:46 PM PST by Theophilus (Not merely prolife, but prolific)
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To: BenKenobi

You do understand that it is congress that spends the money right? And Paul in congress has reduced how much spending over the last several decades?

And if you “young’uns” are so concerned about your future (which you should be) why on earth did you vote for Obama in droves?

Obama/congress has been spending our futures faster than ever before and Obamacare is greatly based on forcing young people to buy health insurance they don’t need to fund older peoples healthcare expanding the overall Ponzi scheme.


475 posted on 01/03/2012 6:27:46 PM PST by DB
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius
Just looking at the current results and the projections, it looks as if Perry will most likely run 5th...unless there's a major shift in the next few minutes.
476 posted on 01/03/2012 6:27:46 PM PST by Rational Thought
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To: katiedidit1
Now that Bachmann is dead last she will really vie for a position with Romney.

If so; it won't be long before the Tea Party types are referring to her as 'Benedict Bachmann'...

477 posted on 01/03/2012 6:28:11 PM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: WilliamHouston

if you don’t think Paul is a nut then you need to have a word with yourself

You said those who have served and are young , well I am under your age limit and have served and think he is a nut,

The man thinks Iran is not a threat, he has no problem with men marrying dogs or their daughters, wants to get rid of the FBI, CIA the list is endless and should br allowed to run on the GOP ticket

Also he is getting mostly young and first time voters because they want their drugs and sex with anything plus pay no taxes.

He wants anarchy and yes he is a frigging nut and I will speak for those who I have served with we all think he is nuts.
Now did you serve in combat seeing as you made your claim?


478 posted on 01/03/2012 6:28:11 PM PST by manc (Marriage is between one man and one woman.Trolls get a life, I HATE OUR BIAS LIBERAL MEDIA.)
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To: WilliamHouston
You believe that America's enemies would just leave it alone if we left them alone.

For you young kids, that's called naivety.

At Ron Paul's age, it's called stupidity and lunacy.

479 posted on 01/03/2012 6:28:32 PM PST by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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To: WilliamHouston

And most everyone else thinks these kids need to grow up.


480 posted on 01/03/2012 6:28:36 PM PST by ari-freedom
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To: Miss Didi

Yep..Makes you wonder what kind of sMitt they have been smoking on Faux News. Hope they clean up their act.


481 posted on 01/03/2012 6:28:49 PM PST by make no mistake
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To: RitaOK

Milward Simpson was a principled conservative, but Alan K. Simpson has been whispering nice things in liberal ears for a generation now. It may have cost his liberal son the gubernatorial nomination in 2010. Instead it went to Cliff Hansen’s grandson. Alan K. Simpson was not WY’s shining moment.


482 posted on 01/03/2012 6:28:59 PM PST by Theodore R. (I'll still vote for Santorum if he is on the April 3 ballot.)
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To: Free Vulcan
In Robins precinct Linn County
Santorum - 68
Romney - 67
Paul - 45
Perry 31
Newt - 25
bachman - 3
Huntsman - 1

I was undecided til the very last second....voted for Santorum....one vote really counts

483 posted on 01/03/2012 6:29:06 PM PST by Iowa David
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To: WilliamHouston

if you don’t think Paul is a nut then you need to have a word with yourself

You said those who have served and are young , well I am under your age limit and have served and think he is a nut,

The man thinks Iran is not a threat, he has no problem with men marrying dogs or their daughters, wants to get rid of the FBI, CIA the list is endless and should br allowed to run on the GOP ticket

Also he is getting mostly young and first time voters because they want their drugs and sex with anything plus pay no taxes.

He wants anarchy and yes he is a frigging nut and I will speak for those who I have served with we all think he is nuts.
Now did you serve in combat seeing as you made your claim?

You seem to cannot fund a libertarian ticket either, this is a conservative website, which JR has said many times, if you supportm Paul then join the liberal sites or better for you a libertarian site, they do have them right???


484 posted on 01/03/2012 6:29:15 PM PST by manc (Marriage is between one man and one woman.Trolls get a life, I HATE OUR BIAS LIBERAL MEDIA.)
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To: deport

Your Fox link. O.k. except for under the results, they have a live camera at Romney’s HQ. Bah, humbug, grrr....


485 posted on 01/03/2012 6:29:48 PM PST by CedarDave
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To: caww

The voting is rigged. Romney will come out the winner.
He’ll start pulling away any minute and Faux News will call it for their favorite leftist. You read it here first. Mark it down. Romney wins. Paul second.


486 posted on 01/03/2012 6:30:13 PM PST by NKP_Vet
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To: bd476

The Democrats are in their own caucas tonight listening to a telecast of Obama speaking and breaking out to organize the Iowa DEM Party, electing their precinct captains, etc. Whadaya mean, the dems are out organizing the Republicans?


487 posted on 01/03/2012 6:30:13 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: alicewonders

C-Span isn’t much better. The last three callers were Muslims, spouting anti-Israel propaganda and supporting Ron Paul!


488 posted on 01/03/2012 6:30:35 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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To: BillyBoy

Santorum stated he learned alot from Newt Gingrich. GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NEWT!!!!!!!!!! one thing about Santorum...he supports earmarks, the bridge to nowhere and endorsed Arlen Spector. America needs NEWT...as speaker he gave the US the first balanced budget since 1969, contract with America and the gop revolution. He said “as soon as I am sworn in as president over 40% of the Obama administration will be dismantled BEFORE Obama’s plane lands back in Chicago”


489 posted on 01/03/2012 6:30:47 PM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: Goldie Lurks
Yep. Watch C-Span.

I used to, years ago, before they set up 3 phone lines:

One for Democrats

One for Democrat Seminar Callers pretending to be Independents

One for Democrat Seminar Callers pretending to be Republicans

490 posted on 01/03/2012 6:30:47 PM PST by Yankee (ANNOY THE RNC AND THE MEDIA: NOMINATE NEWT GINGRICH!)
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To: WilliamHouston

you seem to like to talk for the military , have you served under Generals like I have, because your assumptions are dead wrong and if you have not served then you join the other nuts who follow Paul and think your views are mainstream and needed to be heard on sites like this or at others rallies.


491 posted on 01/03/2012 6:31:25 PM PST by manc (Marriage is between one man and one woman.Trolls get a life, I HATE OUR BIAS LIBERAL MEDIA.)
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To: darrellmaurina

Interesting on Clayton; they FB live page is perhaps way behind - it has 43% reporting with Perry in 4th.

Also, Michelle has Howard (38%) (then Santorum 23%)

Newt still has Winnishiek at 27%.

As for County tallies:

Santorum still leads, with 20. Then Paul..12. Then mitt 9.
Plus, Michelle and Newt both with 1.


492 posted on 01/03/2012 6:31:55 PM PST by C210N (Dems: "We must tax you so that we can buy your votes")
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To: PapaNew
The under 30 Brought us "cool" Obama in 08.... Now going for cult-like Ron Paul?....... What's with this seemingly dyfunctional group of young people? Their parents were the children of the hippies all grown up. .... they are throwing a tamper because their cushioned life is at stake...and they want more. They know it's going to take revenue we don't have...Ron Paul will stop all revenues overseas, and the military, in order to "feed" their desires. .. they are no different than the freeloaders on welfare.
493 posted on 01/03/2012 6:31:55 PM PST by caww
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To: WilliamHouston
Hey, I've been saying all along the Millenials are...something is very wrong with most of them. Their entitlement mentality is just the tip of the Jungian iceberg...
494 posted on 01/03/2012 6:32:14 PM PST by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: Free Vulcan; All

So far every one of the rural and more conservative Western counties has gone for Santorum.


495 posted on 01/03/2012 6:32:21 PM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: Tramonto

I got the message. I am glad some can wean from FAUX and would love to see it expand. ADVERTISERS included.


496 posted on 01/03/2012 6:32:58 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: Future Useless Eater; SamAdams76; mitchell001; campaignPete R-CT; Clemenza; Clintonfatigued; ...
>> he cannot communicate the conservative message as well as Newt Gingrich. Remember, millions of Americans would pay money to see the political equivalent of the “Ali-Frazier fight” in a debate between Newt Gingrich and Barack Obama. <<

Illinois Republicans have already tested the "run the best debater against Obama and we'll win" theory:


497 posted on 01/03/2012 6:33:16 PM PST by BillyBoy (Illegals for Perry/Gingrich 2012 : Don't be "heartless"/ Be "humane")
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To: Yankee

Exactly!

I am just now listening to the calls. They are all pro-Ron Paul.

The screeners have been given their orders.


498 posted on 01/03/2012 6:34:00 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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To: deport
18% Reporting

 Paul     4,440 25% 
 Santorum 4,292 24% 
 Romney   4,183 23% 
 Gingrich 2,460 14% 
 Perry    1,817 10% 
 Bachmann 1,096 6% 
 Huntsman   126 <1% 
 Cain         7 <1% 

499 posted on 01/03/2012 6:34:14 PM PST by deport
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To: Iowa David

Thanks for voting for Santorum. If Bachmann had already exited the race (and I predict she will endorse Romney), Santorum would have certainly finished second behind Paul instead of possibly third behind Mittens the Magnificent. But I guess it doesn’t matter anyway, for the Establishment always wins, like the house at Las Vegas.


500 posted on 01/03/2012 6:34:30 PM PST by Theodore R. (I'll still vote for Santorum if he is on the April 3 ballot.)
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