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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: david1313

You speak as if Obama is a God, but now that the hopey changey has been peeled away, he is exposed for the empty suit that he is. My neighbor’s 15 year old son could “hang” with Obama.


51 posted on 01/03/2012 9:15:07 AM PST by wolfman23601
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To: mitchell001
.

How well they are poised nationally ...


Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest
20+ Polls listed at RCP [as of Dec 31st]
plus
YouGov polls 12/17, 12/10, 12/3, 11/26 11/19, 11/12, 11/5, 10/29, 10/22, 10/15, 10/08,
& Poll Position 12/11, 12/04, 11/27, 11/22, 11/8, 11/1 polls inserted chronologically


(Example methodology for this chart will be on my profile page)

52 posted on 01/03/2012 9:19:00 AM PST by Future Useless Eater (Chicago politics = corrupted capitalism = takeover by COMMUNity-ISM)
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To: wolfman23601

Ok, we will see. You may not like it, but Obama has political skills. It will take someone who can think on their feet to beat him. I watched the debates, Rick loses people in his analysis. In the end, when we make a decision in the fall, all some will see are the debates. They are critical and have been for a number of years.


53 posted on 01/03/2012 9:19:02 AM PST by david1313 (Newt all the way)
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To: Jane Long

I would like to see EVERYONE posting, to POST at least one prayer for Iowa today!

Please Pray for the voters of IOWA!


54 posted on 01/03/2012 9:19:40 AM PST by ConfidentConservative (If my people shall humble themselves and pray,I will hear from Heaven and heal their land.)
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To: pgkdan

We’re looking at a 2 man race going forward. Perry vs Romney.

Oh come on. Really? Perry will finish close to last in Iowa and dead last in NH. I believe that you may be over estimating people in Iowa.


55 posted on 01/03/2012 9:20:51 AM PST by napscoordinator (A miracle is happening before our eyes! The ONLY MORAL CONSERVATIVE!!! Rick Santorum 2012!!!!!)
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To: napscoordinator

Ok...we’ll talk again tomorrow.


56 posted on 01/03/2012 9:23:53 AM PST by pgkdan ("Make what Americans buy, Buy what Americans make, and sell it to the world" Perry 2012)
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To: All

I am so sick of the 24 hour news programs hype that I stopped watching them. Finally some concrete results not the daily polling reports. I’m beginning to believe it’s all made up just to fill the 24 hour news day.

And one more thing. I’m sick of Iowa getting all the attention. By the time it gets to my state I won’t have a vote.


57 posted on 01/03/2012 9:26:54 AM PST by McGruff (Hold the House, retake the Senate.)
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To: david1313

Whether or not “our guy or gal” has great debate skills will be irrelevant. Obama and his media will have the debatees rigged so there will be no “big moments”.


58 posted on 01/03/2012 9:27:46 AM PST by rhombus
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To: rhombus

And if Perry stands up to Obama the way he did that reporter (you got a name?), the people will see that the emporer is naked without debates.


59 posted on 01/03/2012 9:38:14 AM PST by Kenny
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To: pgkdan

That’s a deal.


60 posted on 01/03/2012 9:41:53 AM PST by napscoordinator (A miracle is happening before our eyes! The ONLY MORAL CONSERVATIVE!!! Rick Santorum 2012!!!!!)
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To: traderrob6

My prediction:

Paul - 23
Perry - 21
Romney - 18
Santorum - 15
Gingrich - 13
All others - single digits

Pundits are ignoring the value of organization and an effective ground game. Paul and Perry have their act together in organizing the precincts, so don’t be shocked when the result comes in very similar to these predictions.


61 posted on 01/03/2012 9:47:06 AM PST by pkajj
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To: rhombus

“Whether or not “our guy or gal” has great debate skills will be irrelevant. Obama and his media will have the debatees rigged so there will be no “big moments”.”

That is exactly why we need Newt. The debates are always ‘rigged’. So you need someone who can call them out, and that would be Newt.


62 posted on 01/03/2012 9:47:27 AM PST by david1313 (Newt all the way)
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To: Free Vulcan

Go Rick Santorum!

About the closest thing we have now to a conservative that is running.


63 posted on 01/03/2012 9:47:49 AM PST by CSI007
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To: napscoordinator
Go Sanotrum! The adult in the room!

Good one! Watch any debate with mister whiny and petulant I, I, I. He has no business running.

This election cycle is a disaster.

64 posted on 01/03/2012 9:51:05 AM PST by newzjunkey (Republicans will find a way to reelect Obama and Speaker Pelosi.)
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To: ConfidentConservative

Amen!!!


65 posted on 01/03/2012 9:54:14 AM PST by Mom MD (The country needs Obamacare like Nancy Pelosi needs a Halloween mask)
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To: david1313

Good luck with that. If it happens, I’ll be glad to see it but don’t expect it will.


66 posted on 01/03/2012 9:54:32 AM PST by rhombus
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To: mitchell001
Forget Iowa, seems like a sideshow to me. Either Santorum or Gingrich are acceptable to me. I prefer Santorum because I think he has integrity. He is also a candidate that the Tea Party will get behind. Remember them? They're the ones that gave us all those wins in the mid-terms. He hasn't been treated as a serious contender yet. Maybe if he does well today it will help. I read that he's gotten more financial support in the past week than his previous total.
Unlike some here, I believe Newt is a real conservative but is also a beltway wheeler and dealer with alot of baggage. Unless there's something I don't know, it would be hard to sling mud against Santorum. He seems pretty squeaky clean.
67 posted on 01/03/2012 9:56:35 AM PST by traintown57
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To: newzjunkey

This election cycle is a disaster.

Well too bad. You get what is there and Santorum is the best conservative running.


68 posted on 01/03/2012 9:58:07 AM PST by napscoordinator (A miracle is happening before our eyes! The ONLY MORAL CONSERVATIVE!!! Rick Santorum 2012!!!!!)
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To: traderrob6

My final predection:

Romney: 23%

Santorum: 20%

Gingrich 16%

Paul 24%

Perry 14%

Bachman 4%

I think winning IOWA is losing the nomination as in what we saw with Reagan. People forget that Reagan was not the establishment candidate. He was the people’s candidate.

I think Newt can bring in Independents and even win over some minorities. I think his message resonates with all people, esp if they have thought about the issues facing our country.

It’s amazing to me that few people have actually listened to the debates or discussed the candidates. I’m talking about intelligent people whom I work with.

They say things like, “Newt has too much baggage; is a professor not a president etc.” Then you come to find out these people have not even listened to Newt.

I think if he is in the top 4 in Iowa he’s fine. Until he debates Romney one on one, we’re going to have the media pushing for “drama”.


69 posted on 01/03/2012 9:58:48 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: Kenny
And if Perry stands up to Obama the way he did that reporter (you got a name?), the people will see that the emporer is naked without debates.

Huh? Naked without debates? But you're fantasizing about Perry being in a debate with Obama?? I guess I missed your point other than you think people will react positively to Perry getting in Obama's face. I sure would but then I don't represent all "the people".

70 posted on 01/03/2012 9:59:31 AM PST by rhombus
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To: Free Vulcan

Can someone remind me again why we care about Iowa? TIA...


71 posted on 01/03/2012 10:00:57 AM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: Rennes Templar
Disruptors can now be summarily rounded up and sent to Gitmo for the rest of their lives...

No more Gitmo...the Bamster will be sending everyone to Afghanistan from now on.

72 posted on 01/03/2012 10:05:07 AM PST by NoPrisoners ("When in the course of human events...")
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To: napscoordinator
This election cycle is a disaster.

Hey, everyone had the same amount of time to prepare, raise money, etc. Remember, Reagan had to run 3 times in a primary before finally winning. So while conservativism may work every time it's tried, the lesson to me is that people have to try for a little longer than just a few months.

So instead of trying to find the perfect conservative for President, maybe we conservatives should focus on holding the House and taking the Senate, so whoever gets elected will be held accountable.

73 posted on 01/03/2012 10:06:38 AM PST by rhombus
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To: rhombus

Actually I didn’t write “This election cycle is a disaster”. I don’t think it is. I love that Santorum is going to be our nominee. I am in Heaven right now. I just copied that from someone else.


74 posted on 01/03/2012 10:08:20 AM PST by napscoordinator (A miracle is happening before our eyes! The ONLY MORAL CONSERVATIVE!!! Rick Santorum 2012!!!!!)
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To: napscoordinator

I can vote for a Catholic like myself. Go Rick!!!


75 posted on 01/03/2012 10:09:03 AM PST by GOP_Harley_Guy
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To: Raebie

Can someone remind me again why we care about Iowa? TIA...

First in the Nation baby! Go Santorum!!!!! The next President of the United States is President Rick Santorum!!!!! Man that sounds great.


76 posted on 01/03/2012 10:10:00 AM PST by napscoordinator (A miracle is happening before our eyes! The ONLY MORAL CONSERVATIVE!!! Rick Santorum 2012!!!!!)
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To: pkajj

My prediction

Paul - 18
Perry - 16
Romney - 22
Santorum - 28
Gingrich - 10
Bachmann - 5
Huntsman - 1


77 posted on 01/03/2012 10:14:08 AM PST by wolfman23601
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To: All

Iowa Results Page here:

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/data/iowa-caucus/results/

Bookmark it for later.


78 posted on 01/03/2012 10:18:34 AM PST by BagCamAddict (OMG = Obama Must Go. Let's stay focused on the goal.)
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To: Free Vulcan

Democrat Presidential Candidate Darcy Richardson
Support Uncommitted in Iowa Caucuses
http://www.darcy2012.com/2012/01/02/support-uncommitted-in-iowa-caucuses/

“I’ve been encouraging my supporters in Iowa to join with the Occupy Iowa and Healthcare Not Warfare organizations in sending the strongest possible message to the Obama administration,” Richardson told the listening audience. Supporting an uncommitted slate in Iowa gives progressives the best chance to make their voices heard because of the unique procedural rules employed by Iowa Democrats. Even then, he cautioned, it’s still entirely possible that the Iowa Democratic Party will refuse to report any results indicating opposition to President Obama’s renomination.


79 posted on 01/03/2012 10:19:40 AM PST by Son House (The Economic Boom Heard Around The World => TEA Party 2012)
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To: napscoordinator

OK, sorry about that and good luck with life in Heaven right now and that positive approach.


80 posted on 01/03/2012 10:19:54 AM PST by rhombus
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To: Raebie

I’ll get my guess in.

Romney - 23%

Paul - 20%

Santorum - 18%

Gingrich - 18%

Perry - 12%

Bachmann - 8%

Huntsman - 1%


81 posted on 01/03/2012 10:20:03 AM PST by conservativefromGa
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To: Free Vulcan

Occupy’s Iowa options: Ron Paul or Uncommitted
http://www.salon.com/2012/01/02/occupys_iowa_options_ron_paul_or_uncommitted/singleton/

“Our goal has been to sign people up to go to the Democratic caucuses as uncommitted delegates that are pushing to get our troops out of Afghanistan within 12 months of Obama’s reelection and for Medicare for all during his second term.”

...And then there’s the Occupy Wall Street supporters who want to vote for Ron Paul.


82 posted on 01/03/2012 10:20:28 AM PST by Son House (The Economic Boom Heard Around The World => TEA Party 2012)
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To: conservativefromGa

oh and Bachmann drops out tomorrow


83 posted on 01/03/2012 10:22:10 AM PST by conservativefromGa
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To: Future Useless Eater
How well they are poised nationally ...

Latest Gallup tracking is out - Santorum continues to rise:

Nationally:

Romney down 2 to 24%
Gingrich down 1 to 23%
Paul +2 to 13%
Perry flat at 7%
Santorum +1, moves into 5th at 6%
Bachmann flat at 5%

84 posted on 01/03/2012 10:24:44 AM PST by Crichton
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To: Free Vulcan

Radio Host Calls on Dems to Cast Uncommitted Caucus Vote
http://www.kptm.com/story/16431595/iowa-talk-radio-host-calls-on-dems-to-cast-uncommitted-caucus-vote

Fallon, who also hosts a progressive talk radio show in Des Moines, is an Occupy activist. He said some progressives are not happy with President Obama.

“I think if a strong showing of people came through as uncommitted, he might start paying attention to the people who feel left behind,” Fallon said.

The last time the percentage of uncommitted ballots took first place was in 1976. Then presidential hopeful Jimmy Carter won 27 percent but 37 percent voted uncommitted.


85 posted on 01/03/2012 10:25:18 AM PST by Son House (The Economic Boom Heard Around The World => TEA Party 2012)
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To: All
Hey IOWA! Send a REAL message to Obama from the Heartland! Write in Sarah Palin!
86 posted on 01/03/2012 10:31:14 AM PST by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: Art in Idaho

If it’s an option, I’d like to ask my fellow conservative registered ‘Rats to do that as well :-)


87 posted on 01/03/2012 10:34:34 AM PST by mewzilla (Santelli 2012)
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To: Free Vulcan

Romney 23
Santorum 22
Newt 18
Paul 17
Perry 16
Rest - Who Cares

(Yes, I think in the end, Newt bests Ron Paul, as most of Paul’s supporters will stay home and suck on their bongs.)


88 posted on 01/03/2012 10:37:18 AM PST by RockinRight (If you're waiting to drink until you find pure water, you're going to die of dehydration.)
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To: wolfman23601

My prediction on tonight’s results.

Santorum 22
Romney 21
Paul 20
Gingrich 12
Perry 11
Bachmann 8
Huntsman 4
Other 2


89 posted on 01/03/2012 10:39:17 AM PST by Degaston
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placemark


90 posted on 01/03/2012 10:43:08 AM PST by greyfoxx39 (The Iowa caucuses gave you Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama. You're WELCOME, America.-Iowahawk)
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To: Free Vulcan
The only thing Iowa does is knock candidates out of the race, so the real question is who gets a ticket to continue and who does not? Backmann and Perry could be gone, maybe Newt too. Huntsman dies in N.H. and that will mean Romney, Paul, Santorum with either Newt or Perry. A four man race going in S.C? My prediction is Romney, Paul, Newt and Perry make it to S.C. Santorum fades in N.H. Newt does well there and Perry is on life support after N.H.

Not sure about Newt since he has a habit of saying stuff nobody wants to hear. Also not sure about Perry since he has a habit of saying stuff that only late night comics like. Not sure about Paul since he has a habit of saying stuff only Islamists like. But for sure the say anything to win Romney will make it to S.C. Will the Red Necks in S.C. will treat him as well as the Yankees up north? Turn in next week to fine out.

91 posted on 01/03/2012 10:51:52 AM PST by jpsb
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To: Degaston

That confirms the polls, but I’d be surprised if someone doesn’t overwhelmingly get the 40% undecided count and win fairly comfortably with over 25%. I support Perry, but it looks like Santorum will get the undecideds, if anyone, which is why I predicted 28%.


92 posted on 01/03/2012 10:52:00 AM PST by wolfman23601
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To: Free Vulcan
There could be a surprise good showing for Bachmann.

Can Twitter Predict the Iowa Caucus?

93 posted on 01/03/2012 10:53:41 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Free Vulcan; All
My predictions for Iowa's 6 electoral votes

Romney ?
Paul ?
Perry ?
Newt ?
Santorum ?
Bachmann ?
Huntsman ?

the +40% of undecided caucus voters will win the election. Even if half of them don't show.

The losers will be the idiot pollsters/pundits who didn't talk about the undecided until the last few days when they had to. Every election, they cheerlead for the left/who buys the ads, then change their story at the last minute to look objective.

94 posted on 01/03/2012 10:54:02 AM PST by pulaskibush (Thou shalt tax/steal from Peter to help Paul/Pablo is not in the Bible!)
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To: Degaston

Any prediction would be based solely on wishful thinking, not any real insight. The best result for me would be one in which someone other than Paul wins and Romney gets less than 20%.


95 posted on 01/03/2012 10:55:01 AM PST by littleharbour
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To: ConfidentConservative

Father In Heaven,

Be with Iowa’s Voter’s today, touch their hearts and lead them to YOUR choice for our next leader. Place YOUR Angels about each voting place and protect voters, And Lord Cause confusion in the minds of those who desire to cheat and steal votes from the true votes. In the Name Of Jesus we Pray.
_____________________________________________

Standing in prayer and agreement.
AMEN


96 posted on 01/03/2012 10:55:22 AM PST by simplesimon (You are entitled to your own opinions but not your own "facts"...........)
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To: pkajj

I read today 41 percent still undecided Anyone can win, it’s a wide open race and you are correct .... the ground game counts.


97 posted on 01/03/2012 10:56:37 AM PST by jpsb
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To: Art in Idaho

A stealth write in campaign would explain the high number of undecided. I’m praying.


98 posted on 01/03/2012 10:58:11 AM PST by Josephat (The old claim your evengelizing people who haven't heard the gospel, but go to a Catholic country tr)
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To: Free Vulcan

It will be interesting how the rests are spun. I can easily see where 3 or 4 candidates may be with one or two percent of each other. A candidate may come in 5th but only 4 pts from second place.


99 posted on 01/03/2012 11:01:24 AM PST by cornfedcowboy (Trust in God, but empty the clip.)
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To: Josephat
The 41% undecideds are for Sarah! You betcha'!
100 posted on 01/03/2012 11:02:22 AM PST by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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