Skip to comments.2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
You speak as if Obama is a God, but now that the hopey changey has been peeled away, he is exposed for the empty suit that he is. My neighbor’s 15 year old son could “hang” with Obama.
Ok, we will see. You may not like it, but Obama has political skills. It will take someone who can think on their feet to beat him. I watched the debates, Rick loses people in his analysis. In the end, when we make a decision in the fall, all some will see are the debates. They are critical and have been for a number of years.
I would like to see EVERYONE posting, to POST at least one prayer for Iowa today!
Please Pray for the voters of IOWA!
Were looking at a 2 man race going forward. Perry vs Romney.
Oh come on. Really? Perry will finish close to last in Iowa and dead last in NH. I believe that you may be over estimating people in Iowa.
Ok...we’ll talk again tomorrow.
I am so sick of the 24 hour news programs hype that I stopped watching them. Finally some concrete results not the daily polling reports. I’m beginning to believe it’s all made up just to fill the 24 hour news day.
And one more thing. I’m sick of Iowa getting all the attention. By the time it gets to my state I won’t have a vote.
Whether or not “our guy or gal” has great debate skills will be irrelevant. Obama and his media will have the debatees rigged so there will be no “big moments”.
And if Perry stands up to Obama the way he did that reporter (you got a name?), the people will see that the emporer is naked without debates.
That’s a deal.
Paul - 23
Perry - 21
Romney - 18
Santorum - 15
Gingrich - 13
All others - single digits
Pundits are ignoring the value of organization and an effective ground game. Paul and Perry have their act together in organizing the precincts, so don’t be shocked when the result comes in very similar to these predictions.
“Whether or not our guy or gal has great debate skills will be irrelevant. Obama and his media will have the debatees rigged so there will be no big moments.”
That is exactly why we need Newt. The debates are always ‘rigged’. So you need someone who can call them out, and that would be Newt.
Go Rick Santorum!
About the closest thing we have now to a conservative that is running.
Good one! Watch any debate with mister whiny and petulant I, I, I. He has no business running.
This election cycle is a disaster.
Good luck with that. If it happens, I’ll be glad to see it but don’t expect it will.
This election cycle is a disaster.
Well too bad. You get what is there and Santorum is the best conservative running.
My final predection:
I think winning IOWA is losing the nomination as in what we saw with Reagan. People forget that Reagan was not the establishment candidate. He was the people’s candidate.
I think Newt can bring in Independents and even win over some minorities. I think his message resonates with all people, esp if they have thought about the issues facing our country.
It’s amazing to me that few people have actually listened to the debates or discussed the candidates. I’m talking about intelligent people whom I work with.
They say things like, “Newt has too much baggage; is a professor not a president etc.” Then you come to find out these people have not even listened to Newt.
I think if he is in the top 4 in Iowa he’s fine. Until he debates Romney one on one, we’re going to have the media pushing for “drama”.
Huh? Naked without debates? But you're fantasizing about Perry being in a debate with Obama?? I guess I missed your point other than you think people will react positively to Perry getting in Obama's face. I sure would but then I don't represent all "the people".
Can someone remind me again why we care about Iowa? TIA...
No more Gitmo...the Bamster will be sending everyone to Afghanistan from now on.
Hey, everyone had the same amount of time to prepare, raise money, etc. Remember, Reagan had to run 3 times in a primary before finally winning. So while conservativism may work every time it's tried, the lesson to me is that people have to try for a little longer than just a few months.
So instead of trying to find the perfect conservative for President, maybe we conservatives should focus on holding the House and taking the Senate, so whoever gets elected will be held accountable.
Actually I didn’t write “This election cycle is a disaster”. I don’t think it is. I love that Santorum is going to be our nominee. I am in Heaven right now. I just copied that from someone else.
I can vote for a Catholic like myself. Go Rick!!!
Can someone remind me again why we care about Iowa? TIA...
First in the Nation baby! Go Santorum!!!!! The next President of the United States is President Rick Santorum!!!!! Man that sounds great.
Paul - 18
Perry - 16
Romney - 22
Santorum - 28
Gingrich - 10
Bachmann - 5
Huntsman - 1
Iowa Results Page here:
Bookmark it for later.
Democrat Presidential Candidate Darcy Richardson
Support Uncommitted in Iowa Caucuses
Ive been encouraging my supporters in Iowa to join with the Occupy Iowa and Healthcare Not Warfare organizations in sending the strongest possible message to the Obama administration, Richardson told the listening audience. Supporting an uncommitted slate in Iowa gives progressives the best chance to make their voices heard because of the unique procedural rules employed by Iowa Democrats. Even then, he cautioned, its still entirely possible that the Iowa Democratic Party will refuse to report any results indicating opposition to President Obamas renomination.
OK, sorry about that and good luck with life in Heaven right now and that positive approach.
I’ll get my guess in.
Romney - 23%
Paul - 20%
Santorum - 18%
Gingrich - 18%
Perry - 12%
Bachmann - 8%
Huntsman - 1%
Occupys Iowa options: Ron Paul or Uncommitted
Our goal has been to sign people up to go to the Democratic caucuses as uncommitted delegates that are pushing to get our troops out of Afghanistan within 12 months of Obamas reelection and for Medicare for all during his second term.
...And then theres the Occupy Wall Street supporters who want to vote for Ron Paul.
oh and Bachmann drops out tomorrow
Latest Gallup tracking is out - Santorum continues to rise:
Romney down 2 to 24%
Gingrich down 1 to 23%
Paul +2 to 13%
Perry flat at 7%
Santorum +1, moves into 5th at 6%
Bachmann flat at 5%
Radio Host Calls on Dems to Cast Uncommitted Caucus Vote
Fallon, who also hosts a progressive talk radio show in Des Moines, is an Occupy activist. He said some progressives are not happy with President Obama.
I think if a strong showing of people came through as uncommitted, he might start paying attention to the people who feel left behind, Fallon said.
The last time the percentage of uncommitted ballots took first place was in 1976. Then presidential hopeful Jimmy Carter won 27 percent but 37 percent voted uncommitted.
If it’s an option, I’d like to ask my fellow conservative registered ‘Rats to do that as well :-)
Rest - Who Cares
(Yes, I think in the end, Newt bests Ron Paul, as most of Paul’s supporters will stay home and suck on their bongs.)
My prediction on tonight’s results.
Not sure about Newt since he has a habit of saying stuff nobody wants to hear. Also not sure about Perry since he has a habit of saying stuff that only late night comics like. Not sure about Paul since he has a habit of saying stuff only Islamists like. But for sure the say anything to win Romney will make it to S.C. Will the Red Necks in S.C. will treat him as well as the Yankees up north? Turn in next week to fine out.
That confirms the polls, but I’d be surprised if someone doesn’t overwhelmingly get the 40% undecided count and win fairly comfortably with over 25%. I support Perry, but it looks like Santorum will get the undecideds, if anyone, which is why I predicted 28%.
the +40% of undecided caucus voters will win the election. Even if half of them don't show.
The losers will be the idiot pollsters/pundits who didn't talk about the undecided until the last few days when they had to. Every election, they cheerlead for the left/who buys the ads, then change their story at the last minute to look objective.
Any prediction would be based solely on wishful thinking, not any real insight. The best result for me would be one in which someone other than Paul wins and Romney gets less than 20%.
Father In Heaven,
Be with Iowas Voters today, touch their hearts and lead them to YOUR choice for our next leader. Place YOUR Angels about each voting place and protect voters, And Lord Cause confusion in the minds of those who desire to cheat and steal votes from the true votes. In the Name Of Jesus we Pray.
Standing in prayer and agreement.
I read today 41 percent still undecided Anyone can win, it’s a wide open race and you are correct .... the ground game counts.
A stealth write in campaign would explain the high number of undecided. I’m praying.
It will be interesting how the rests are spun. I can easily see where 3 or 4 candidates may be with one or two percent of each other. A candidate may come in 5th but only 4 pts from second place.