Posted on 01/10/2012 1:00:04 PM PST by Maceman
ROMNEY: 37%
PAUL: 26%
HUNTSMAN: 21%
GINGRICH: 11%
PERRY: 9%
BACHMAN: 0%
SANTORUM: 0%
Santorum ain’t dropping out until after Florida.
He won Iowa.
If Newt wants to be the ‘conservative’ nominee, he’s going to have to earn it.
Second, New Hampshire is a blue state in a blue region of the country, with only 4 electoral votes. Notice the above mentioned pollsters never ask how a primary vote effects their vote.
Third, any pundit who has a candidate is finished is a liar. Santorum was able tie with Romney after being outspent nearly 7:1. Even though the media claims they don't matter. Paul's army of volunteers was able to put him in double digits in Iowa and will make him competitive for some time.
The media will cheerlead for whoever they think will buy the most ads. Most of them will also cheerlead for who they think Obama can beat. We have to use the internet, door to door, radio, and kitchen table discussions to bypass the lying media.
Seriously N00B you need a new handle. Cain quit remember ?
Yeah, because NH voters speak for me... um no. This whole early primary process is beginning to reek of special interests groups. Where in the constitution does any one state get to pick Presidents? Just another money grabbing, socialist scheme invented by folks who act like first graders. Some of the Iowa snobbery, demanding attention, getting upset when they didn’t get their way. Either it should rotate on a set schedule or be scrapped as an interference in the process. What a buncha demanding first graders. /rant.
ditto to your rant!
This is nothing to this point. It’s based on 19 votes total.
Maybe later on tonight it will have more meaning...and I am sure Santorum and Newt will gain...and at least Paul will fall off some if not Huntsman and Romney too.
Santorum ain’t dropping out until after Florida.
He won Iowa.
I’ve heard rumors to that effect, could you give a link showing that Santorum has officially won Iowa? I have asked you this once before, within the past hour or so and I really don’t want to look like I am stalking you from thread to thread saying the same thing but to be fair, you didn’t answer me the first time.
Please tell me upon what you are basing this “Santorum won Iowa” point please.
Well, last I’ve checked the certified results haven’t been released yet.
I’ve seen reports of discreprencies about 2x the size of Mitt’s 8 vote ‘victory’ in the primary.
And no, I wouldn’t accuse you of stalking. It’s an honest question.
Santorum won Iowa. He defeated Newt and tied with Mitt. That’s enough to carry him through to Florida. Newt has to win in SC.
I’ve been supportive of Santorum and I hope he does win Iowa.
If Romney were the winner, they would have released the votes already.
That they’ve waited until AFTER NH, is evidence to me that Santorum won.
We’ll find out on page 52 though.
All the primaries should be held on the same day. That is the only way to make it fair.
ML/NJ
Does anyone have a total delegate count, or a link to one, since some states are proportional and I’m curious to keep tally on the total delegates?
I had some extra time and projected the vote totals for Hillsborough (The largest county in NH containing Nashua and Manchester) and Belknap (Laconia). Breakout by Townships is in the document which is similar format to how I did IA (without the colors).
As of these 2 counties, I’m projecting Romney will get somewhere around 46-47% of the vote. This consists of Romney’s 2008 totals and about half of McCain’s 2008 totals.
Huntsman gets about a 1/3 of McCain voters and most of the Rudy people.
Santorum gets about 80% of Huckabee supporters and what little vote of Duncan Hunter from 2008.
Gingrich gets about 20% of Huckabee voters, 17% of McCain, and what little vote of Fred Thompson from 2008.
The remainder resulting in an increase in voter turnout goes majority to Ron Paul.
As a result with these two counties, I have the following totals:
Romney: 44,840 46.58%
Huntsman: 17,427 18.10%
Paul: 17,334 18.01%
Gingrich: 7962 8.27%
Santorum: 7649 7.95%
Perry: 1059 1.10%
Photo finish between Paul and Huntsman for 2nd. Really depends on how many new voters (i.e. Democrats) turn out for Paul.
Gingrich has an edge of a few hundred votes on Santorum which should stay consistent as the projection formula favors Gingrich since the 17% of McCain he is drawing from is slighty larger or the same that the 80% of Huckabee voters Santorum gets.
Perry gets table scraps. Can’t see him getting over 2% statewide. Looks like he will have to wait to SC.
Tried to ping what people were interested in the data. If Gingrich does get to 11%, then Huntsman will finish behind Paul by virtue of them drawing from the same voting pool.
Perferably, it would be good for Huntsman to finish 2nd and continue to SC, because he would be competing for the same voters on the coast, mid/low country of SC that Romney would, splitting the moderate vote.
Well find out if I’m right or need to go back to the drawing board in a few hours.
According to town officials, lines have been especially long for those registering to vote for the first time.
As we get ready for another NH election night, we can be certain of one thing: the Republican primary voters there will again leave conservatives out in the cold!
NH is not a blue state. The last election swept Republicans into control of both houses of the legislature. People up here just don't like big-govt. "compassionate" conservatives. There is a bill up which would grant concealed carry rights without a stinking permit. (You won't find that in many "blue" states!") The Demonrat Gov. is opposed, of course, but he will not be around for long.
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