Skip to comments.LIVE THREAD NH Election results starting to come in (1% of the vote as of 3:41pm)
Posted on 01/10/2012 1:00:04 PM PST by Maceman
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All the primaries should be held on the same day. That is the only way to make it fair.
Does anyone have a total delegate count, or a link to one, since some states are proportional and I’m curious to keep tally on the total delegates?
Is this what you are looking for, Perservo?
I had some extra time and projected the vote totals for Hillsborough (The largest county in NH containing Nashua and Manchester) and Belknap (Laconia). Breakout by Townships is in the document which is similar format to how I did IA (without the colors).
As of these 2 counties, I’m projecting Romney will get somewhere around 46-47% of the vote. This consists of Romney’s 2008 totals and about half of McCain’s 2008 totals.
Huntsman gets about a 1/3 of McCain voters and most of the Rudy people.
Santorum gets about 80% of Huckabee supporters and what little vote of Duncan Hunter from 2008.
Gingrich gets about 20% of Huckabee voters, 17% of McCain, and what little vote of Fred Thompson from 2008.
The remainder resulting in an increase in voter turnout goes majority to Ron Paul.
As a result with these two counties, I have the following totals:
Romney: 44,840 46.58%
Huntsman: 17,427 18.10%
Paul: 17,334 18.01%
Gingrich: 7962 8.27%
Santorum: 7649 7.95%
Perry: 1059 1.10%
Photo finish between Paul and Huntsman for 2nd. Really depends on how many new voters (i.e. Democrats) turn out for Paul.
Gingrich has an edge of a few hundred votes on Santorum which should stay consistent as the projection formula favors Gingrich since the 17% of McCain he is drawing from is slighty larger or the same that the 80% of Huckabee voters Santorum gets.
Perry gets table scraps. Can’t see him getting over 2% statewide. Looks like he will have to wait to SC.
Tried to ping what people were interested in the data. If Gingrich does get to 11%, then Huntsman will finish behind Paul by virtue of them drawing from the same voting pool.
Perferably, it would be good for Huntsman to finish 2nd and continue to SC, because he would be competing for the same voters on the coast, mid/low country of SC that Romney would, splitting the moderate vote.
Well find out if I’m right or need to go back to the drawing board in a few hours.
According to town officials, lines have been especially long for those registering to vote for the first time.
As we get ready for another NH election night, we can be certain of one thing: the Republican primary voters there will again leave conservatives out in the cold!
NH is not a blue state. The last election swept Republicans into control of both houses of the legislature. People up here just don't like big-govt. "compassionate" conservatives. There is a bill up which would grant concealed carry rights without a stinking permit. (You won't find that in many "blue" states!") The Demonrat Gov. is opposed, of course, but he will not be around for long.
LOL, don’t bring that up. Look at my posting history from September when I was talking about ways to stop Romney, which included taking advantage of registering in NH with the “intent” to relocate in NH. It’s precisely how Hillary Clinton won in 2008, and I guarantee you we got people today (i.e. Romney, Paul, and Huntsman) all trying it.
Compared to IA, NH has a ridicuolus turnout rate. Some places actually have 90+% turnout.
Anyway, when I brought up the idea of *utilizing* the NH rules for our candidate, I got accused of advocating for voter fraud. So I’ll stay away from that subject with a 25 foot pole. But I warned many here that’s what was going to happen.
Oops, maybe it would help if I “shared” the doc. Sorry about that if the link above didn’t work. Fixed it.
Lived in New Fields N.H. as a child back in the 50’s N.H. rocks! We have to have a stinking permit here in Texas, 200 bucks, that sucks.
The town reporting that was Londonderry; conveniently located right off Interstate 93.
Vermont has the most lax gun laws in the nation, and nobody would argue that they are as ‘blue’ as it gets.
Even Romney’s usual cheering section is having a hard time sustaining enthusiasm: Rich Lowry wrote today, “Romneys campaign is all technique and no music. His speech in Exeter was schmaltz piled on top of saccharin in a perfect storm of substanceless sentimentality ... He continues to excel in debates by routinely coming up with answers that feel as though they were produced by a crack marketing team for maximum unassailability.”
Of course, we only have a few votes in so far, so it could be a Romney blowout - but I doubt it.
Don’t know what the Onada write in is all about. Heck, those idiots probably think this is November and their actually voting for pres.
In any case, every Onada write in is one less for Romney. If the best outcome for NH is Romney winning small—again—this works for the rest of the field.
A handful of votes for Santorum in the Peoples Republic of NH, on the other hand, is better than expected.
I’m still waiting for a Newtybot to explain Newt’s appearance knee to knee on a love seat with Pelosi in a pro global warming ad. Newt says its “inexplicable”. That response is unacceptable. I think Pelosi owns him. She’s publicly said she does. Why should I not believe it?
The problem with NH is that they have an open primary. 0bama has no opposition, so his zombies can come vote in ours. You look at the people who drive pickups and work with their hands making real stuff, and they are not Leftists at all. The Ron Paul guy outside the polling place was not the stereotypical punk living in his parents’ basement, but an old fashioned rustic Yankee. There are some real tough salt-of-the-earth people up here.
Thanks. Interesting post. How odd is it that two of the candidates are Mormon? /rhetorical
In reality, it doesnt matter who “won” Iowa, because of the delegate split. 25% and 22% both look to get 7 delegates at this point.
Romney/Paul 3013! Together they are to good for this millenium.
I didn’t look at Londonderry. Only the townships in Belknap and Hillsborough County. Those totals were:
Romney - 6,536 45.20%
Huntsman - 2,647 18.31%
Paul - 2,605 18.02%
Gingrich- 1,323 - 9.15%
Santorum - 1,209 - 8.36%
Perry 139 - 0.36%
Romney - 38,304 46.81%
Huntsman - 14,780 18.07%
Paul - 14,729 18.00%
Gingrich - 6,639 8.11%
Santorum - 6,440 7.87%
Perry - 920 1.12%
Obama wasn’t a write in in the gop primary. It was votes in the democrat primary in that precinct.
I spoke with several NH residents today...all went for Gingrich. One of them used to be a democrat...
Dont go ruining people’s fantasies.
How on earth does Obama get votes in a GOP primary???
Paul is the conservative alternative to Romney
Rural New England people are still tough, even though they are outnumbered by the Massholes and NY liberals who invaded their turf.
People who ain't been here don't know about the place.
Yeah...I hear that all the time.
The only problems voting officials are encountering are residents who want to change their party affiliation from one party to another.
I don't think those are pubbies trying to switch to demorat...
Yep. The scumbag RATS are changing their party affiliation en masse to vote for the insane old man - and screw up what should be OUR primaries.
To them, it’s all just one big dirty trick.
No one with any sanity would EVER vote for Ron Paul for ANYTHING. So to those of you going “Go, Paul! We wanna see Mitt beat down...!” watch what you wish for... because having that lunatic in office would be even worse than having Obama.
I heard an election official asking a young person if she wanted to be a Republican just this time, or for ever. The Commies are polluting our primary. Whose fault is this? The Pubbie establishment. The same gang that gave us David Souter in the SCOTUS. Damn them.
This is what Romneybots need to pay attention to. Their man ain’t gonna cut it against Obama, with 70% of CONSERVATIVES against him!!!!
Come on people — you can pay your bills, you cansign your name — you can think past your NOSE on this!!!!
There are going to be some interesting stats coming out of this tonight...a lot of registered DEMOCRATS have shown up to vote GOP only to find out they had FORGOTTEN to switch back to ‘independent’ after the last primary; making them ineligible to vote on the GOP side. Apparently; these people are WRITING IN GOP candidates on Democrats ballots. It will be interesting to see who these ‘write in’ votes go to...
How on earth does Obama get votes in a GOP primary???
You do know that there was a democratic primary at the same time, don’t you?
You have to ask yourself...why does the NH Republican Party support an open primary?
Ha ha, no effect on our primary.
The Republican and Democrat Primary ballots in NH are separated. Any votes a GOP candidate gets from a Democrat in a Democratic primary do NOT count towards the GOP primary total.
Example: Larry Liberal, registered Democrat, votes for Mitt Romney in the NH Democratic primary. This vote does NOT count towards the GOP primary totals. It IS counted, however, in determining who wins the NH Democratic Primary.
This is actually quite commmon. In 2008, Romney, McCain, Rudy, and Even Huckabee received votes for the Democratic Nomination in NH, and likewise, Hillary and Obama received votes for the Republican nomination. Because they are separate contests, the votes ARE separated.
That would be great if Mitt won the democratic primary...
The entire primary situation is a MESS !
I understand that...not talking vote totals. I just want to see WHO is the recipient of those 'write ins'...I have my suspicions... :-)
David Souter did as much to harm America as anyone ever from NH. Thanks a lot John Sununu, Sr.
I stumbled on this tidbit when I had to go to the NH Secretary of State website to get the vote breakdowns by townships for the simulation I was running. I was shocked at the number of votes candidates in both parties got by the other party. I started to worry that it would be more data to analyze, but after examining the results, realized that even though it’s the same person, the vote totals are separated. Theoretically, someone could win both primaries with two different vote totals. That would be really strange.
I remember being up in the White Mts. and stopping at a modest gas station where the proprietor, fumbling with little white pieces of paper, said "we don't get bailouts, so we have to keep these records." (There were Republican campaign signs on his property.) He was my kind of people. I love the people up here. They are polite and decent. People hold the door open when you enter the P.O. Nothing like that happened in the real blue state I used to inhabit. I love this place, even the frost heaves and black flies. I won't sit by and see ignorant flatlanders bash us.
I would just feel a whole lot better if Romney were challenging Obama as a Democrat in the primary rather than a Rino in the general...
You think Romney or Paul would garner enough write-in votes on the Decroatic side to beat Obama in the Democratic Primary?
Now if that happened, I would LMAO like crazy!
Imagine the commercials Newt and Santorum could run about how Romney or Paul “won” the Democratic Primary.
No, but it would be hysterical! Real numbers are trickling in...
Which is why Romney is dominating the primary? Not buying it. NH is one of the worst states at voting itself from the trough.
Maybe 10 years ago, sure, but now? NH is virtually indistinguishable from MA, etc. Even Maine is more conservative these days than NH.
The Sununus are on the outs, as John E. Sununu lost his Senate seat in 2008 after only one term.
Chris Christie 19.05%
Newt Gingrich 11.9%
Jon Huntsman 9.52%
Sarah Palin 11.9%
Ron Paul 2.38% nor the idiot Paul
Mitt Romney 2.38%
Marco Rubio 21.43%
Rick Santorum 9.52%