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Poll: Romney slipping in South Carolina, holds just 2 point lead over Gingrich
thehill.com/blogs ^ | 1/12/2012 | Justin Sink

Posted on 01/12/2012 7:12:19 AM PST by TBBT

Despite a historic sweep of the first two nominating contests in the GOP field, Mitt Romney holds just a two percentage point lead in South Carolina, his smallest lead of 2012.

Romney is the favorite of 23 percent of South Carolina voters, narrowly edging Newt Gingrich's 21 percent, according to the latest poll from Insider Advantage. Rick Santorum pulls 14 percent of Palmetto state voters, while Ron Paul rounds out the top four with 13 percent. Jon Huntsman's seven percent and Rick Perry's five percent trail the pack.

The numbers could indicate that Gingrich's aggressive strategy - which has included controversial attacks on Mitt Romney's business and abortion records - is gaining him traction by hurting the GOP frontrunner.

In the three other major South Carolina polls completed in the new year, Romney was earning 37 percent, 27 percent, and 30 percent, according to Real Clear Politics - meaning his 23 percent in the latest poll marks a precipitous decline.

Gingrich, meanwhile, has maintained a steady band of support between 18 and 23 percent.

The poll may also signal the beginning of the end of the Santorum boomlet, who has fallen 10 percentage points from a Rasmussen poll released just after his near-win in the Iowa caucuses. That too could help Gingrich, who hopes conservatives in South Carolina will rally around his campaign as an alternative to Romney.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: 2012; gingrich; poll; romney; southcarolina
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Anti Newt headlines are ramping up in the media.

New anti-Newt attacks ads coming out from the Romney super PAC.

Might these numbers be real?

1 posted on 01/12/2012 7:12:25 AM PST by TBBT
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To: TBBT

Go, Newt, Go!


2 posted on 01/12/2012 7:13:29 AM PST by dfwgator (Don't wake up in a roadside ditch. Get rid of Romney.)
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To: TBBT

my faith is being restored in South Carolina.

Now that Mitt is FINALLY being vetted watch for his numbers to crumble.

Go Newt!


3 posted on 01/12/2012 7:14:28 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: TBBT

ppp has numbers right in line with this, newt is going to win South Carolina.


4 posted on 01/12/2012 7:15:19 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009
That's the history of this race. A jump to the top and then another jump to the bottom.

BTW, there's nothing historic about Romney's winning the first 2 primaries ~ the cold hard facts are he did not win Iowa ~ that was Santorum's win.

5 posted on 01/12/2012 7:18:45 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: TexasFreeper2009
Now that Mitt is FINALLY being vetted watch for his numbers to crumble.

The most important thing about South Carolina is that a clear "Not Romney" emerge. It looks for the moment like that may be Newt. And as a Newt supporter that is a good thing. However I could vote for either of the two Ricks just as well. The important thing is for one of them to break out of the pack and get ahead of Romney.
6 posted on 01/12/2012 7:18:45 AM PST by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: TBBT

Remember Iowa has an unemployment rate in the 5% range and the caucus only drew 120,000 voters.

Mitt owns a home in NH and was Gov. of this tiny states big brother, Taxachussetts.

So in many ways, SC with 10% unemployment is the first “real” primary, one that is representative of more than a small sliver of the country.


7 posted on 01/12/2012 7:23:08 AM PST by bigbob
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To: TBBT
Just think what the numbers would be if it was a closed primary state. Mutt Romney and NutballPaul would drop like a rock in the polls.
8 posted on 01/12/2012 7:34:02 AM PST by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: TBBT

The numbers look real. Santorum has taken 10 percentage points from Romney according to the Insider Advantage polls and a whopping > 20 points according to Rasmussen.


9 posted on 01/12/2012 7:39:03 AM PST by expat1000
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To: TBBT

The first two—Iowa and New Hampshire—are a joke.

Now we get down to business. Go Newt.


10 posted on 01/12/2012 7:41:02 AM PST by Venturer
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To: TexasFreeper2009

“Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American Democratic Party-affiliated polling firm”...

Just sayin...


11 posted on 01/12/2012 7:48:58 AM PST by Mountain Mary (Awaken Oh America...)
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To: TBBT

historic sweep? Mitt won Iowa by 8 votes and that is a sweep? I question the 8 vote win.
Newt needs some big guns to come to SC and campaign with him. Run a slew of anti Romney ads...and his supporters need to flood the newspapers, talk shows and media on his behalf. GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NEWT


12 posted on 01/12/2012 7:50:06 AM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: TBBT

I want to see a couple of more polls in this range before I get comfortable with it. I would exercise caution until we can be sure this isn’t an outlier.


13 posted on 01/12/2012 7:53:01 AM PST by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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To: Mountain Mary

For what it’s worth, it’s not just PPP that appears to confirm Insider Advantage (taken on the 11th). We Ask America’s latest South Carolina survey (taken on the 9th), taken just 48 hours before Insider Advantage shows almost exactly the same thing.

In other words, there are no less than three polls now, if you count the unreleased PPP survey coming out tomorrow, showing South Carolina with a strong Gingrich, a severely weakened Santorum, and a Romney that’s tied with Gingrich and moving down. The CPSR for Romney in these two surveys is 22.9-26.7%; the Romney CPSR for the previous two surveys, Rasmussen (taken 1/5) and PPP (1/5-7), is 27-31%. Clearly Romney has hit a little rough patch in the state.


14 posted on 01/12/2012 7:59:55 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: TBBT

South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul Perry Huntsman Spread
RCP Average 1/4 - 1/11 -- 29.3 20.0 19.0 11.3 5.0 3.5 Romney +9.3
Insider Advantage 1/11 - 1/11 726 LV 23 21 14 13 5 7 Romney +2
PPP (D) 1/5 - 1/7 1112 LV 30 23 19 9 5 4 Romney +7
Rasmussen Reports 1/5 - 1/5 750 LV 27 18 24 11 5 2 Romney +3
CNN/Time 1/4 - 1/5 485 LV 37 18 19 12 5 1 Romney +18

15 posted on 01/12/2012 8:00:09 AM PST by deport
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To: TBBT
Even Sean Hannity stating that with Romney wins in Iowa & New Hampshire, if he wins in South Carolina, it's over. Romney would be the inevitable nominee.

Wait a minute! I thought there were 57 states, or at least 50. How could wins in three small states decide the nominee? THEY DON'T! The results in the two piss ant states of Iowa & NH don't mean shite. The news media and even some (self described) “conservative” talk show hosts, think they can force Romney on us by telling us that it's already decided. “Resistance is futile, You will be assimilated”.

I say BULL$HIT on that. Let the voters decide. The media and certain radio hosts (Rush & Sean) should GET OFF NEWT'S BACK! and stop shilling for Romney. It is becoming all to obvious.

16 posted on 01/12/2012 8:01:06 AM PST by faucetman ( Just the facts, ma'am, Just the facts)
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To: TBBT
The hyperbole is insane...HISTORIC? We don't know if that tool from Assachusetts even WON Iowa...and if so, by EIGHT votes?

Give me a break.

17 posted on 01/12/2012 8:03:40 AM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: faucetman

Wait a minute! I thought there were 57 states, or at least 50.


Close in one way. There are 56 jurisdictions that hold primaries which include five foreign territories and DC.


18 posted on 01/12/2012 8:04:15 AM PST by deport
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To: TBBT

The numbers could indicate that Gingrich’s aggressive strategy - which has included controversial attacks on Mitt Romney’s business and abortion records -*******

Newt can also thank Perry who is just brutalizing Romney. Perry’s Hannity interview on the evening of the NH Primary was a bloodletting. Perry repeatedly called Myth a vulture capitalist and refused to back down in spite of constant badgering by Hannity. Hannity was extremely frustrated by the end of the interview with Perry also calling into question Myth’s numerous position changes.

It may not be helping Perry but there’s no doubt in my mind this is harming Romney greatly in SC.


19 posted on 01/12/2012 8:05:50 AM PST by bereanway
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To: TBBT

Slightly off-subject, but does anyone know Romney’s position(s) on affirmative action? I have a friend who’s unfamiliar with Romney’s record, and I’ve been supplying her with FR articles and the Romney truth file. But she says she wants to know his AA position because she’s looking for anything positive.

For me, he could be totally against it and it would be like finding a fragment of a pearl in a pile of crap——completely inconsequential.


20 posted on 01/12/2012 8:08:08 AM PST by CatherineofAragon
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To: TBBT
The value of South Carolina has less to do with the delegates won (even though it is winner take all) than the perception of momentum going into Florida, where every GOP nominee has been decided since at least 1960.

Newt is expected to do well here for the same reason that Mitt was expected to do well in New Hampshire: nearly home turf.

Santorum can still survive to fight in Florida with a respectable third place finish.

21 posted on 01/12/2012 8:09:42 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: faucetman

Guess what I just saw? Martha McCallum on America’s News HQ had Jim Talent with the Romney campaign on and they are making an ad to counterattack on the Bain ad by Newt. Well...remember when Newt sent out legal notice to all news media not to run the ad in which it says he was fined by the ethics committee because it is false and there will be legal ramifications? Well, Fox showed the whole ad at 10:30am just prior to Talent coming on and it said “Web ad” at the top of it. Isn’t that underhanded!! I just sent an email to Newt. Martha said “That was the old ad. They are coming out with a new one.”


22 posted on 01/12/2012 8:09:42 AM PST by sheikdetailfeather ("Kick The Communists Out Of Your Govt. And Don't Accept Their Goodies"-Yuri Bezmenov-KGB Defector)
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To: TBBT

Great news for the morning. Newt is going to do it.

GO NEWT GO.......


23 posted on 01/12/2012 8:09:51 AM PST by Gator113 (~Just livin' life, my way~..... GO NEWT GO.....!)
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To: TBBT
[Anti Newt headlines are ramping up in the media.] Photobucket ...and Rush is helping
24 posted on 01/12/2012 8:11:54 AM PST by RetSignman (I take responsibility for what I post not for what you understand.)
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The Most Electable?!


Click The Pic To Donate

He Faced Voters 22 Times And Lost 17 Of Those Times

Support FR, The Truth Serum

25 posted on 01/12/2012 8:14:28 AM PST by DJ MacWoW (America! The wolves are here! What will you do?)
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To: dfwgator
Go, Newt, Go!

DITTO !!!!! We are not going to say - as Hewitt was saying yesterday - that Romney will be the candidate. ONLY TWO STATES HAVE VOTED !!!!
26 posted on 01/12/2012 8:14:37 AM PST by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: Venturer
The first two—Iowa and New Hampshire—are a joke.

Always have been. Their shenanigans with cross voters, dead voters, vote buying, bussing in voters, coupled with the "gotta be first" bs have relegated them to "who gives a shiite" status.

The media pupmps it up because they have copy to sell, and commercial time to sell.

But, in the end, they mean absolutely nothing regards a general national election.

27 posted on 01/12/2012 8:18:09 AM PST by going hot (Happiness is a momma deuce)
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To: TBBT

Dont want Romney?

Want someone that fights?

Here you go.


28 posted on 01/12/2012 8:20:07 AM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: TBBT

I think SC has an OPEN PRIMARY which means democrats (dead and alive) and independents can vote.

So the Paul and Romney votes will pile on.To spoil any conservative from winning.


29 posted on 01/12/2012 8:25:08 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!

The vast majority of SC democrats are black. They won’t crossover and vote. The few white libs that do crossover will vote for Paul. This isn’t Iowa or New Hampshire. I don’t think the number of democrats voting will have a significant impact, other than boosting Ron Paul a few percentage points.


30 posted on 01/12/2012 8:35:44 AM PST by wolfman23601
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To: TBBT

I do NOT want Romney or Obama but could someone tell me why Gingrich called Ryan’s plan right wing and why he now endorses it?And is there anywhere in his contract with America that reigns in the senate and congress and cuts they’re pay?I don’t want a flame war.I realize it is all getting desperate.But I would like to know these things before I can support him.

http://www.newt.org/sites/newt.org/files/contract/21st_Century_Contract_Legislative_Proposals.pdf


31 posted on 01/12/2012 8:42:04 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!

About all I know is that congressional salaries are not high enough to make them rich. They get rich because of inside deals and crony capitalism. However I believe their insurance and retirement are spectacular.


32 posted on 01/12/2012 8:54:12 AM PST by DJ MacWoW (America! The wolves are here! What will you do?)
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To: bereanway

Like other things Perry has said and was trounced for by the media, his denouncement of the Bain Capital claims by Romney will be vindicated.


33 posted on 01/12/2012 9:06:08 AM PST by varina davis (Elect a real American patriot in 2012 -- Gov. Rick Perry)
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To: TBBT

IMHO, SC is the big test. Iowa was a close contest, and NH is next door to Massachusetts. How Romney does in South Carolina will mean more than either of the two previous races.

If he loses, or ekes out a plurality in a three-way horserace between Newt and Santorum, then I think the race is still very much open and there’s no real momentum for
Romney. In fact, if he loses by a large margin, it may start unraveling his campaign a bit.

OTOH, if Mitt Romney wins by a comfortable margin (8+ points or thereabouts) in SC, then I think it will mean there is something to the notion that some voters are seeing an inevitability to Romney as nominee, and will translate into momentum heading into Florida.

We’ll see, though.


34 posted on 01/12/2012 9:07:02 AM PST by DemforBush (May I have 10,000 marbles, please?)
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To: DJ MacWoW

Agreed. Cantor was supposed to pass a bill after the holidays (which would be now...)to end insider trading within.So with more tea party conservatives in there there is hope we can clean it all up.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45612773/Why_Is_Eric_Cantor_Blocking_the_Congressional_Insider_Trading_Act


35 posted on 01/12/2012 9:16:08 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!

Absolutely. It’s disgusting that they get rich while giving America the shaft.


36 posted on 01/12/2012 9:24:40 AM PST by DJ MacWoW (America! The wolves are here! What will you do?)
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To: TBBT
Gingrich-Santorum
 
or
 
Santorum-Gingrich

37 posted on 01/12/2012 9:28:16 AM PST by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: TBBT

Romney is not going to win in SC. If his campaign was the Axis powers in WWII, New Hampshire was his 1941. It’s all strategic retreat from here.


38 posted on 01/12/2012 9:32:25 AM PST by Antoninus (Defeat Romney--Defeat Obama.)
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To: All

It’s now or never for me and Palin.

She needs to use some political clout and endorse Gingrich prior to the South Carolina Primary.

This is too important to merely sit on the sidelines.

Political clout = Use it or lose it.


39 posted on 01/12/2012 9:35:00 AM PST by rbmillerjr (Conservative Economic and National Security Commentary: econus.blogspot.com)
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To: Mountain Mary

You are right. PPP’s numbers for Romney in Iowa and NH were much lower than the real outcome. Just sayin’.


40 posted on 01/12/2012 9:49:54 AM PST by CitizenReporter
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To: Antoninus

Romney is up very big in Fla, FYI. That’s just a fact.


41 posted on 01/12/2012 9:51:53 AM PST by CitizenReporter
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To: rbmillerjr

Right. If she doesn’t, knowing everything she knows about Romney, including what we DON’T know about his tax returns ...then she’s nothing but a FOX shill like the rest of them.

It’s all so disgusting how bought his country has become. They’re ALL in the tank — either by faking their support and going to to writing books and media appearances, or getting their 15 mins of media attention.

I’m waiting for the TRUE patriots to come on the scene. Maybe it will never happen. If it doesn’t, then we’ll just sit back and watch it all fall apart I guess.

In the meantime, GO NEWT!!!!!!!!!!!!


42 posted on 01/12/2012 9:57:04 AM PST by LibsRJerks
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To: Salvation

If the polls show Gingrich close to Romney near election day, I think the supporters of Perry and Santorum should consider ensuring that Romney loses by redirecting their support to Gingrich. Just do it in SC, to make the point that Romney’s not “inevitable,” but rather that there’s a solid conservative core that wants a different candidate.

Then, following SC, particularly if Perry drops out, and with Romney taken down several pegs, possibly Santorum and Gingrich would each have a chance in Florida.

My main problem with this is that of the three (Gingrich, Santorum, Perry), Gingrich is the one I like the least, but whatever it takes....


43 posted on 01/12/2012 10:07:59 AM PST by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: Antoninus

Sounds nice but SC is an open primary so all the dead and alive dems and independents will vote for him.SC will undivide and pick Santorum or Gingrich. Then if one of them ties with Romney we need to know if the GOP/Romney bought the Fla. Governors endorsement.The tea party needs to step up and emdorse in SC but urgently FLA.


44 posted on 01/12/2012 10:09:04 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: Antoninus

Sounds nice but SC is an open primary so all the dead and alive dems and independents will vote for him.SC will undivide and pick Santorum or Gingrich. Then if one of them ties with Romney we need to know if the GOP/Romney bought the Fla. Governors endorsement.The tea party needs to step up and endorse in SC but urgently FLA.


45 posted on 01/12/2012 10:09:27 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: TBBT

Go Newt Go!


46 posted on 01/12/2012 10:34:18 AM PST by Tribune7 (Vote Perry)
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To: TBBT

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2012/01/12/romney-lead-narrows-in-s-c-widens-in-fla-polls/

I also just saw an article the the SC tea party endorses Paul. What the hell?
Gov. Rick Scott (Fla) was endorsing Perry but supposedly is now not endorsing any one.

http://htpolitics.com/2012/01/04/rick-scott-still-not-endorsing-presidential-candidate/

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/60762.html


47 posted on 01/12/2012 10:34:21 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: CitizenReporter
Romney is up very big in Fla, FYI. That’s just a fact.

Yes. It's a "fact" according to polls. But polls mean nothing. Let's see what happens on election day.
48 posted on 01/12/2012 10:51:40 AM PST by Antoninus (Defeat Romney--Defeat Obama.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/bingham-gingrich-endorsement-southcarolina/2012/01/02/id/422792

This man carries more weight in SC than sell-out DeMint.

S.C. Majority Leader Endorses Newt Gingrich
Monday, 02 Jan 2012 06:30 PM

Kenny Bingham, South Carolina’s House Majority Leader, announced he is endorsing former House Speaker Gingrich in his run for the White House.

Bingham is among South Carolina’s rising GOP stars and is considered one of the most fiscally and socially conservative members of the state House He plans to campaign throughout the state for Gingrich, his office said in a press release.

Bingham said he “was glad to join the team and believes that Newt’s dedicated leadership can help rebuild this country. It will take bold leadership, new ideas and the ability to work within the system while simultaneously and drastically transforming it. I believe that Newt Gingrich is the right person for this critical time in our nation.”

Gingrich said that he was “humbled and honored by Kenny’s support. He is a voice for cutting taxes and responsible spending, and understands that we are in a perilous juncture in the history of our country. Now is the time for bold reform of the tax code, regulation and our energy policies to create jobs and economic growth, not timid changes that will do little to create jobs and buy into President Obama’s rhetoric of class warfare.”


49 posted on 01/12/2012 12:06:04 PM PST by NKP_Vet (creep.)
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To: TBBT
Newt isn't slipping in SC, he is getting his numbers back. A few days ago he was down to 18(right after Iowa)and now he is back up to within 2 points of mr. good hair. Romney is the one who is slipping he was at 31% in SC, now down to 23.

Liberals will try to spin anything in order to make their chosen one look good.

50 posted on 01/12/2012 12:14:01 PM PST by calex59
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