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Rasmussen in FL: Romney 41, Gingrich 19, Santorum 15
Hot Air ^ | JANUARY 12, 2012 | ED MORRISSEY

Posted on 01/12/2012 8:29:04 AM PST by Qbert

While South Carolina looks like a toss-up, according to the latest Insider Advantage poll, Florida looks like it could become a rout.  The latest Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney with a bigger lead than he had in New Hampshire, beating Newt Gingrich by 22 points in a state that could spell the effective end of the primary:

Mitt Romney is now running away with the race in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ survey of the end-of-the-month Florida Republican Primary.

Coming off his decisive win in Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, Romney earns 41% support with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second at 19%. A new telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters finds former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum running third with 15% of the vote.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Utah Governor Jon Hunstman are next with nine percent (9%) and five percent (5%) support respectively. The two men finished second and third in New Hampshire where independents are allowed to vote in the primary. The Florida primary is open to Republican voters only. Texas Governor Rick Perry runs dead last among primary voters in the Sunshine State with two percent (2%) support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

A loss in South Carolina might soften up that lead a bit for Romney, but that would have to be a very large tumble to lose the state.  His opponents would have to win back huge chunks of demographics, including an 18-point lead among men and a 28-point lead among women, where Gingrich and Santorum tie at 16% to Romney’s near-majority 44%.  Romney even gets the edge among very conservative voters, 29/26 over Santorum with Gingrich at 25%, but wins a majority of “somewhat conservative” voters at 53%, with Gingrich in second at 16%.

Nor is Gingrich likely to make a charge in Florida, according to favorability numbers in this poll os 750 likely GOP primary voters.  He has a respectable 59/37 rating, but Romney’s is 76/21, with his 32% “very favorable” eleven points better than Gingrich’s.  Perry has cratered in Florida, with a 43/52 favorability rating, which still beats both Paul (33/64) and Huntsman (34/51).  Only Santorum challenges Romney in this measure with a 61/29 rating, but only 8% see him as the strongest candidate to challenge Obama, while a majority of 55% say that about Romney. Almost eight in ten expect Romney to win the nomination, and 87% believe that the likely Republican nominee is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama in November.

Assuming Romney wins in South Carolina, a win in Florida is almost assured.  With numbers like this, don’t be surprised to see more GOP figures lining up behind Romney in an attempt to unify the party early and aim its rhetorical guns at Team Obama.  That might be why John Bolton endorsed Romney late yesterday:

John Bolton, George W. Bush’s controversial Ambassador to the United Nations, will endorse Mitt Romney tonight, a Romney supporter told BuzzFeed.

Bolton tweeted earlier this evening that he plans to make a major announcement on Fox News’s “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.”

And while Jim DeMint has been careful to remain neutral, his advisors are climbing aboard Team Mitt, too:

A group of loyalists to South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint – including a top fundraiser for Rick Perry – will publicly endorse Mitt Romney’s presidential bid on Thursday, a source confirmed to CNN.

Former South Carolina GOP Chairman Barry Wynn, Columbia businessman and fundraiser Peter Brown, and Columbia attorney Kevin Hall will announce their support for Romney Thursday.

Wynn’s move to Romney is striking. The Spartanburg financial adviser is a member of Perry’s finance team and traveled to Texas in August to meet privately with the governor before he announced his bid.

Jeb Bush will probably wait for South Carolina to vote, but I’d bet that he will endorse Romney shortly afterward.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: demint; election2012; fl; florida; gingrich; romney; santorum
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To: dfwgator

“Perry should be the VP Choice.”

Probably going to be either Perry or Christie of NJ... (remember Christie’s _very_ early endorsement of Romney?)


151 posted on 01/12/2012 1:53:14 PM PST by Road Glide
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To: Qbert
I can never understand why the Republican party moves further left every time the democrat party moves left.

They NEVER move right to counter the dem's.

They may as well merge and we can just have primaries from now on.

152 posted on 01/12/2012 2:16:22 PM PST by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: Qbert

It’s time for Newt, Bachmann, Perry, Palin and Cain to back Santorum as a last-ditch play. Newt’s #s have utterly collapsed in FL from the last poll, with Rick doubling.


153 posted on 01/12/2012 3:07:07 PM PST by montag813
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To: Qbert
UGH.

154 posted on 01/12/2012 3:29:10 PM PST by VictoryGal (Never give up, never surrender! REMEMBER NEDA)
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To: All; Qbert
Almost eight in ten expect Romney to win the nomination

Perception IS reality in politics and many facets of life.

It's lunacy that four (or fewer) of 50 states can decide the nominee for any party.

155 posted on 01/12/2012 3:59:49 PM PST by newzjunkey (Just say no to the big gov't, neocon, socon statist.)
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To: dfwgator
Perry should be the VP Choice.

I don't how this would be possible under any scenario.

156 posted on 01/12/2012 4:38:16 PM PST by Theodore R. (I'll still vote for the Right Rick --Santorum-- if he is on the April 3 ballot.)
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To: Sybeck1

157 posted on 01/12/2012 4:46:56 PM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: cardinal4

Maybe it was always this bad and we just did not know it.
Except for Reagan, we need to go back to Coolidge for a solid conservative Republican President. With a few exceptions most Republican leaders in the House and Senate
have been “go along to get along” good old boys.


158 posted on 01/12/2012 4:52:58 PM PST by Maine Mariner
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To: Maine Mariner

Newt was doing fine in the debates and was building momentum. Then he let Romney get to him in Iowa, and lost his temper. And then wasted his time on Bain Capital. Will probably undo any shot he has. There were a lot of other Romney issues he could have focused on. This has been Newts problem. He really doesn’t have a great campaign organization as seen by several missteps including Virginia primary.

Most of the key player (especially the ones with money) are starting to line up with Romney. If Romney wins or comes close in SC and wins FLA, then it is over. You can talk about someone dropping out to stop splitting the vote. But that is not what is going on. Romney has broken through the 25% barrier, and several on the fence now see him as being a viable candidate against Obama. His showing in Iowa changed a lot of perceptions since he wasn’t expected to come in the top 3.

Santorum does seem to be fading. And my candidate, Perry, seems to be done.


159 posted on 01/12/2012 6:37:51 PM PST by gswilder
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To: Qbert

It’s over. Either way we are skrewed.


160 posted on 01/12/2012 7:09:45 PM PST by crosshairs (Liberalism is to truth, what east is to west.)
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Comment #161 Removed by Moderator

To: Qbert

Really, GOP??? Romney`s the guy, huh?? So much for Reagan`s admonishment about bold colors. Instead, bland pastels and gray... and oh, yeah.. defeat.. are apparently “in.”


162 posted on 01/12/2012 8:08:10 PM PST by ScottinVA (Liberal logic: 0bamacare mandate is acceptable... but voter IDs are unconstitutional.)
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To: KansasGirl

You aren’t the only one. I thought I could support whoever the GOP nominee is, but, not sure I will vote if it’s Romney. I don’t like the guy or his policies. I know I’ve been an advocate of not allowing Obama to get re-elected, but, this just makes me sick that this country is so danged stupid after what happened with McCain.


163 posted on 01/12/2012 8:46:08 PM PST by Catsrus
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To: RetSignman

Actually your very wrong about Rush. He beats the sh*t out of Romney everyday. He did say he had a good speech but so what? Thats endorsing him? Like most sane people, Rush sees the writing on the wall. Romney is going to be the nominee unless there is some act of God. All the other candidates have too much baggage, unelectable, and or no organization. I wanted Perry to win, thats not going to happen.

I will easily vote for Romney over Obama. Id rather get 70% of what i want, then none at all. People with this all or nothing mentality will do nothing more then elect a very dangerous socialist to another 4 years.


164 posted on 01/12/2012 11:03:15 PM PST by cdnerds
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To: cardinal4

Gosh, that’s about the finest analysis of this election I’ve read yet. And I agree completely.


165 posted on 01/13/2012 12:10:57 AM PST by SoDak
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To: who knows what evil?

Thanks for the support. It bothers me to see a conservative being lead around by the ring in his nose as much as seing a liberal being lead around by the ring in his. There are two parties. The dem sheeple. And the repub sheeple. And the sheeple have two SENIOR leaders. Nancy and Boner.

And the repub JUNIOR leaders are Palin, Cantor, Bachman, Haley, Limbaugh, Hanity, Bolton, Greta ... all in the same GOP that Boner and McConnell are in.

Until the working man on each side of the line wakes up and realizes the man working across from him is not his enemy, our situation will never change. But that class warfare being stirred up by the democrats and IGNORED, therefore promoted by the republicans, keeps the working man fighting agains each other and keeps them re-electing the same old people who are out to feather their own nests at our expense.

It’s time the workers unite......AND GO HOME! Let the dear leaders come to the people and beg them to go back to work so they can collect taxes to pay for their lifestyle. Might just have a little bargaining power.

Rant now over.


166 posted on 01/13/2012 1:31:04 AM PST by Terry Mross (I'll only vote for a second party)
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To: freedomrings69

I simply do not accept what someone tells me to be fact. The poll I trust will be a poll of a few people in my coffee shop that I can hear answer the question. However, that does not tell me they won’t change their mind. Nor does it tell me their votes will definitely be counted as the voters wanted them counted.

Bottom line....you’re relying on a lot of faith that any of this crap is real and we’re not all being played like a fine violin at a Georgetown dinner party with Nancy and John sitting next to each other sharing a glass of champagne purchased by the taxpayer.


167 posted on 01/13/2012 1:41:20 AM PST by Terry Mross (I'll only vote for a second party)
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To: Terry Mross; cdnerds
Looks like THE DEGENERATE CON MAN MYTH SLIP WILLARD RINO ROMNEY IS GOING TO GET HIS CLOCK CLEANED IN SC

DROPPING LIKE A STONE, AND AS OF YESTERDAY IS ONLY 2% OVER NEWTON LEROY (Insider Advantage 1/11-726 Likely Voters)

FUMR

What happens if I do not meet the mandate?

If you don’t have health insurance by Dec. 31, 2007, you will lose your personal income tax exemption for 2007. That exemption gives you a Massachusetts tax savings of approximately $219.

In 2008, the cost of the penalty goes up. The fine will equal half of the cost of the lowest-priced Health Connector-certified plan for each month that you don’t have coverage

Waivers will be available for those who cannot afford a plan that meets the rules. Check back for updates.

How is the mandate enforced?

The Massachusetts Department of Revenue will enforce the individual mandate through the tax process

News & Election Videos

South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

2008 South Carolina Primary on January 12, 2008 | 2008 GOP South Carolina Final RCP Average

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul Perry Huntsman Spread
RCP Average 1/4 - 1/11 -- 29.3 20.0 19.0 11.3 5.0 3.5 Romney +9.3
Insider Advantage 1/11 - 1/11 726 LV 23 21 14 13 5 7 Romney +2
PPP (D) 1/5 - 1/7 1112 LV 30 23 19 9 5 4 Romney +7
Rasmussen Reports 1/5 - 1/5 750 LV 27 18 24 11 5 2 Romney +3
CNN/Time 1/4 - 1/5 485 LV 37 18 19 12 5 1 Romney +18

See All South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary
29.3 Romney +9.3 20.0 Gingrich 19.0 Santorum 11.3 Paul
5.0 Perry 3.5 Huntsman -- Bachmann -- Cain
|
27.8 Huckabee +5.3 22.5 McCain 16.5 Romney 9.3 Thompson 7.0 Giuliani 5.0 Paul
26.9 McCain +1.0 25.9 Huckabee 14.7 Romney 14.6 Thompson 4.4 Paul 3.4 Giuliani

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul Perry Huntsman Spread
RCP Average 1/4 - 1/11 -- 29.3 20.0 19.0 11.3 5.0 3.5 Romney +9.3
Insider Advantage 1/11 - 1/11 726 LV 23 21 14 13 5 7 Romney +2
PPP (D) 1/5 - 1/7 1112 LV 30 23 19 9 5 4 Romney +7
Rasmussen Reports 1/5 - 1/5 750 LV 27 18 24 11 5 2 Romney +3
CNN/Time 1/4 - 1/5 485 LV 37 18 19 12 5 1 Romney +18
Insider Advantage 12/18 - 12/18 736 LV 19 31 4 7 5 4 Gingrich +12
Clemson 12/6 - 12/19 600 LV 21 38 2 10 5 3 Gingrich +17
NBC News/Marist 12/4 - 12/6 635 LV 23 42 2 9 7 3 Gingrich +19
CNN/Time 11/29 - 12/6 510 LV 20 43 4 6 8 1 Gingrich +23
Winthrop 11/27 - 12/4 LV 22 38 3 4 9 1 Gingrich +16
Insider Advantage 11/28 - 11/28 519 LV 15 38 2 7 4 -- Gingrich +23
The Polling Company (R) 11/18 - 11/21 505 LV 16 31 1 5 6 3 Gingrich +15
Insider Advantage 11/8 - 11/8 457 LV 16 19 2 3 6 -- Gingrich +3
Clemson 10/27 - 11/7 600 LV 22 10 1 4 9 1 Romney +12
Rasmussen Reports 11/1 - 11/1 770 LV 23 15 1 5 9 1 Romney +8
CNN/Time 10/20 - 10/25 400 RV 25 8 1 12 11 1 Romney +13
Insider Advantage 10/16 - 10/16 476 LV 16 8 -- 7 12 1 Romney +4
NBC News/Marist 10/11 - 10/13 639 LV 28 7 2 5 10 1 Romney +18
Winthrop 9/11 - 9/18 LV 27 5 2 4 31 2 Perry +4
PPP (D) 8/25 - 8/28 750 RV 13 7 4 5 36 2 Perry +23
Magellan Strategies (R) 8/22 - 8/23 637 LV 20 5 2 4 31 2 Perry +11
PPP (D) 6/2 - 6/5 1000 RV 27 12 -- 7 -- 2 Romney +15
Winthrop 4/17 - 4/23 LV 17 8 2 2 -- 0 Romney +9
PPP (D) 1/28 - 1/30 559 RV 20 13 -- 7 -- -- Romney +7
PPP (D) 5/22 - 5/23 638 LV 24 25 -- 7 -- -- Gingrich +1

168 posted on 01/13/2012 1:48:05 AM PST by Rome2000 (OBAMA IS A COMMUNIST CRYPTO-MUSLIM)
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To: cdnerds

[He did say he had a good speech but so what?]

As an icon of Conservatism, why did Rush have to gush so much about a moderate?

He, of all people, knows Romney carries a ton ammunition for obama to use and yet he is almost manic about Gingrich and Perry out to destroy capitalism.

Neither one is out to do that and he knows it. In the past, he blasted McCain on a daily basis and for good reason...he was a moderate.

Now we have two PROVEN Conservatives running for office and he is screaming that they are going to destroy capitalism.

He has a huge audience and has great influence on how they think but if he doesn’t point out the dangers of selecting a moderate as our nominee he is forcing Conservatives to settle, just like we had to do with McCain.


169 posted on 01/13/2012 5:12:44 AM PST by RetSignman (I take responsibility for what I post not for what you understand.)
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To: Windflier

On one of the news shows last night I saw one poll with Gingrich in 2nd and one poll with Santorum in 2nd in SC.


170 posted on 01/13/2012 7:03:34 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: Notary Sojac
“Rasmussen is under the control of Karl Rove’s Secret Mind Control Rays” response in 3....2....1....

Well this poll oversampled Black Jewish Lesbians over the weekend so of course this poll is a lie.

171 posted on 01/14/2012 8:53:40 AM PST by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: TomGuy
That means two of the three [Santorum, Gingrich, Perry] must drop out soon and throw their support to the remaining one.
Agreed. It would be best of 2 stepped down but thier egos may be hurt. Perhaps casting lots may be an answer.
172 posted on 01/14/2012 12:36:39 PM PST by kindred (wages of sin is death; but the gift of God is eternal life through Jesus Christ ...)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Yep...voted by mail last week...


173 posted on 01/15/2012 5:48:43 AM PST by southphilly
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To: wardaddy

Labels like conservative or liberal don’t tell us much at all but anyone who advocates a return to the real constitution would be scorned at the average Republican gathering, even in supposedly “ultra-conservative” South Carolina.


174 posted on 01/15/2012 5:50:52 AM PST by RipSawyer (This does not end well!)
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To: All
My suggestion at this point --make sure your family passports are all up to date.
175 posted on 01/15/2012 5:56:30 AM PST by riri
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To: wardaddy

“.we thought we had one but she slept through it”
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

I suspect that at the end Sarah Palin realized what a lot of American conservative men don’t realize and that is that NO woman is going to be president anytime soon. The reason is that women are the majority of voters and women DO NOT want to see a woman in the white house. If women wanted a woman president we would be disgusted now with president Clinton rather than resident Obama. I have been very amused at all the speculation about Hillary replacing Obama and winning the white house. I figure she would have about as much chance in the general election as Joy Behar would have.
Women are the majority of voters, women decide who is president, either by voting or staying home, either way they are the majority and they decide. Women do not support women for president. They support men who look the part (at least to a woman’s eyes) and promise to solve all their problems.


176 posted on 01/15/2012 6:04:29 AM PST by RipSawyer (This does not end well!)
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To: Strategerist

I am well aware of the enormous numbers of people who don’t agree with me. That is what scares the daylights out of me. All those people who don’t agree with me have been steadily wrecking the country for decades. They elected Johnson, Carter, Clinton and Obama. They imagined that Obama and his democrats would fix the problems created by George Bush. That seems rather like expecting a pack of rabid pit bulls to save you from a Chihuahua.


177 posted on 01/15/2012 6:17:54 AM PST by RipSawyer (This does not end well!)
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To: RipSawyer

I agree with your post about women voters and think there is substance behind it.

Despite what some on this site think, there is no special conspiracy to elect Mitt Romney. The bottom line is that Mitt is likely the most electable against Obama and most all the reputable polls show that.

Now, one of the reasons he is, goes to women voters. With the disintegration of the family unit, we now have many, many more single parent households run by women than there were 40 years ago.

Many of those women rely on benefits of the ever growing welfare state, or if they don’t, they like the idea of that safety net being there if they need it.

That group is not going to vote for a heavy duty conservative in a general election. They just aren’t.

All the polling shows that GOP candidates are going to win white men overwhelmingly. The election is going to be fought in the middle, and women voters will be a huge part of it.

When we talked about Reagan Democrats back in the 80’s, that basically included a lot of the world war two generation and their spouses. The Reagan democrats are now essentially deceased. And there aren’t many female equivalents to them in the current day.

Freepers can jump up and down about how they want a really super conservative candidate. That person is going to have a hard time winning a general election based on the current makeup of the country. This isn’t 1984 anymore unfortunately. I wish it were.


178 posted on 01/15/2012 6:20:28 AM PST by SteveAustin
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To: GonzoGOP
After SC two of the “Not Romney” candidates will need to get out if there is to be any chance of stopping Romney from locking this up.

Yes, that's the key. I wish they'd do it sooner, but FLA is the last chance. And, it has to be the candidates that do it - and support the remaining not-Romney. It's the only way.

RuPaul looks to be the spoiler, but I don't see anything that can be done there - he, and his supporters, could care less.

179 posted on 01/16/2012 10:27:20 PM PST by D-fendr (Deus non alligatur sacramentis sed nos alligamur.)
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