Skip to comments.Rasmussen in FL: Romney 41, Gingrich 19, Santorum 15
Posted on 01/12/2012 8:29:04 AM PST by Qbert
While South Carolina looks like a toss-up, according to the latest Insider Advantage poll, Florida looks like it could become a rout. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney with a bigger lead than he had in New Hampshire, beating Newt Gingrich by 22 points in a state that could spell the effective end of the primary:
Mitt Romney is now running away with the race in the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of the end-of-the-month Florida Republican Primary.
Coming off his decisive win in Tuesdays New Hampshire Primary, Romney earns 41% support with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second at 19%. A new telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters finds former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum running third with 15% of the vote.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Utah Governor Jon Hunstman are next with nine percent (9%) and five percent (5%) support respectively. The two men finished second and third in New Hampshire where independents are allowed to vote in the primary. The Florida primary is open to Republican voters only. Texas Governor Rick Perry runs dead last among primary voters in the Sunshine State with two percent (2%) support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
A loss in South Carolina might soften up that lead a bit for Romney, but that would have to be a very large tumble to lose the state. His opponents would have to win back huge chunks of demographics, including an 18-point lead among men and a 28-point lead among women, where Gingrich and Santorum tie at 16% to Romneys near-majority 44%. Romney even gets the edge among very conservative voters, 29/26 over Santorum with Gingrich at 25%, but wins a majority of somewhat conservative voters at 53%, with Gingrich in second at 16%.
Nor is Gingrich likely to make a charge in Florida, according to favorability numbers in this poll os 750 likely GOP primary voters. He has a respectable 59/37 rating, but Romneys is 76/21, with his 32% very favorable eleven points better than Gingrichs. Perry has cratered in Florida, with a 43/52 favorability rating, which still beats both Paul (33/64) and Huntsman (34/51). Only Santorum challenges Romney in this measure with a 61/29 rating, but only 8% see him as the strongest candidate to challenge Obama, while a majority of 55% say that about Romney. Almost eight in ten expect Romney to win the nomination, and 87% believe that the likely Republican nominee is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama in November.
Assuming Romney wins in South Carolina, a win in Florida is almost assured. With numbers like this, dont be surprised to see more GOP figures lining up behind Romney in an attempt to unify the party early and aim its rhetorical guns at Team Obama. That might be why John Bolton endorsed Romney late yesterday:
John Bolton, George W. Bushs controversial Ambassador to the United Nations, will endorse Mitt Romney tonight, a Romney supporter told BuzzFeed.
Bolton tweeted earlier this evening that he plans to make a major announcement on Fox Newss On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.
And while Jim DeMint has been careful to remain neutral, his advisors are climbing aboard Team Mitt, too:
A group of loyalists to South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint including a top fundraiser for Rick Perry will publicly endorse Mitt Romneys presidential bid on Thursday, a source confirmed to CNN.
Former South Carolina GOP Chairman Barry Wynn, Columbia businessman and fundraiser Peter Brown, and Columbia attorney Kevin Hall will announce their support for Romney Thursday.
Wynns move to Romney is striking. The Spartanburg financial adviser is a member of Perrys finance team and traveled to Texas in August to meet privately with the governor before he announced his bid.
Jeb Bush will probably wait for South Carolina to vote, but Id bet that he will endorse Romney shortly afterward.
We are screwed
If you’d like, we Alabamians can annex North Florida, say from Pensacola to the Appalachicola.... or the Withilacotchee/Suwanee.
He didn’t make any attacks on capitalism...that’s Rush’s narrative, and evn Rush now seems to have realized that the statement was, to put it mildly, excessive. In fact, I can’t find anything anywhere where Gingrich attacks capitalism. The abusive practices and cronyism of Romney’s firm, and his lies about them, do not represent “capitalism.” Attacking them is perfectly legitimate.
As for his likes and dislikes, he’s an historian and there certainly are things about all of these people that are worthy. FDR was a good leader during WWII (which was actually what pulled us out of the Depression), and Teddy Roosevelt, while being too enthusiastic about engaging in foreign adventures, established good things too, such as our National Parks system.
I think you have to look at the actual plans that Gingrich has put forward and to the things that he accomplished if you want to get a true idea of the direction in which he would go. He actually does have a verifiable record of conservative policies and achievement.
I know I will get flamed for saying this but a Palin endorsement would not seem to carry the same weight as it did in 2010.Who else will endorse and group all on one candidate? If you look at the infighting in this forum it will be hard to happen naturally without a voiced endorsement.I wish it could.Time will tell...
Have you looked at the latest polling going into SC? Romney is barely edging out Newt, and Santorum is way behind.
If Perry takes his best shot at Mitt during the debates, then asks his supporters to get behind Newt just before the vote, it'll be all over for Romney.
Mainstream Republicans don't like Newt or Perry as much as we don't like Romney and their votes count too. It is a shame we can't all find a compatible candidate. But the mainstream Republicans didn't like Reagan at first either.
These ads of Newts have got to hurt Romney. I am afraid they hurt all Republicans because all Republicans are identified with Capitalism. Newts Ads will become Obamas ads. It's a strange world.
I get this but the polls fluctuated before and they could again.Polls are for strippers they can change poles LOL.When the results are in I just hope all get behind whoever comes in second or beats Romney.
As the old saying goes, "the trend is your friend."
Rick Santorum has been a second tier candidate since the race began. What happened to him in Iowa was the result of massive negative campaigning against Newt by the Romney camp. It's a spike that will not last, and is even now, settling back to normal.
This is also why you're beginning to see Newt's numbers rebounding. Gotta go, but keep those things in mind.
I’d love that.
Cut off the north of FL from the say I4 north and join with GA, AL, MS.
There was a small movement in south FL not too long ago where they wanted to be split from us up in the northern part of the state.
No arguments from me on that.
When it comes to FL some of us here have a saying.
The south is the north and the north is the south.
FDR through the New (raw) Deal injected most of the government regulatory nonsense we have now. He wanted a 100% income tax AND his policies intentionally prolonged the depression so that the public would be more willing to give themselves to government. FDR made it illegal to own gold and essentially handed eastern Europe to the Communists. TR presided over the beginnings of the slide toward Socialism in this country. The National Parks were one of the biggest transfers of private land to government in history, AND he began the process to get the 16th amendment and thereby the income tax that has made us all slaves to the IRS. The cause of individual freedom would have been greatly advanced had both of the Roosevelts had died in childhood.
You say yourself that Newt is a historian so he has to know these things and yet these are his favorite Presidents. I notice that you are not trying to defend Newt's view of Wilson but then Wilson is indefensible in any circumstance. (read up on the APL sometime
“Perry should be the VP Choice.”
Probably going to be either Perry or Christie of NJ... (remember Christie’s _very_ early endorsement of Romney?)
They NEVER move right to counter the dem's.
They may as well merge and we can just have primaries from now on.
It’s time for Newt, Bachmann, Perry, Palin and Cain to back Santorum as a last-ditch play. Newt’s #s have utterly collapsed in FL from the last poll, with Rick doubling.
Perception IS reality in politics and many facets of life.
It's lunacy that four (or fewer) of 50 states can decide the nominee for any party.
I don't how this would be possible under any scenario.
Maybe it was always this bad and we just did not know it.
Except for Reagan, we need to go back to Coolidge for a solid conservative Republican President. With a few exceptions most Republican leaders in the House and Senate
have been “go along to get along” good old boys.
Newt was doing fine in the debates and was building momentum. Then he let Romney get to him in Iowa, and lost his temper. And then wasted his time on Bain Capital. Will probably undo any shot he has. There were a lot of other Romney issues he could have focused on. This has been Newts problem. He really doesn’t have a great campaign organization as seen by several missteps including Virginia primary.
Most of the key player (especially the ones with money) are starting to line up with Romney. If Romney wins or comes close in SC and wins FLA, then it is over. You can talk about someone dropping out to stop splitting the vote. But that is not what is going on. Romney has broken through the 25% barrier, and several on the fence now see him as being a viable candidate against Obama. His showing in Iowa changed a lot of perceptions since he wasn’t expected to come in the top 3.
Santorum does seem to be fading. And my candidate, Perry, seems to be done.
It’s over. Either way we are skrewed.
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