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Rasmussen in FL: Romney 41, Gingrich 19, Santorum 15
Hot Air ^ | JANUARY 12, 2012 | ED MORRISSEY

Posted on 01/12/2012 8:29:04 AM PST by Qbert

While South Carolina looks like a toss-up, according to the latest Insider Advantage poll, Florida looks like it could become a rout.  The latest Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney with a bigger lead than he had in New Hampshire, beating Newt Gingrich by 22 points in a state that could spell the effective end of the primary:

Mitt Romney is now running away with the race in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ survey of the end-of-the-month Florida Republican Primary.

Coming off his decisive win in Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, Romney earns 41% support with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second at 19%. A new telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters finds former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum running third with 15% of the vote.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Utah Governor Jon Hunstman are next with nine percent (9%) and five percent (5%) support respectively. The two men finished second and third in New Hampshire where independents are allowed to vote in the primary. The Florida primary is open to Republican voters only. Texas Governor Rick Perry runs dead last among primary voters in the Sunshine State with two percent (2%) support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

A loss in South Carolina might soften up that lead a bit for Romney, but that would have to be a very large tumble to lose the state.  His opponents would have to win back huge chunks of demographics, including an 18-point lead among men and a 28-point lead among women, where Gingrich and Santorum tie at 16% to Romney’s near-majority 44%.  Romney even gets the edge among very conservative voters, 29/26 over Santorum with Gingrich at 25%, but wins a majority of “somewhat conservative” voters at 53%, with Gingrich in second at 16%.

Nor is Gingrich likely to make a charge in Florida, according to favorability numbers in this poll os 750 likely GOP primary voters.  He has a respectable 59/37 rating, but Romney’s is 76/21, with his 32% “very favorable” eleven points better than Gingrich’s.  Perry has cratered in Florida, with a 43/52 favorability rating, which still beats both Paul (33/64) and Huntsman (34/51).  Only Santorum challenges Romney in this measure with a 61/29 rating, but only 8% see him as the strongest candidate to challenge Obama, while a majority of 55% say that about Romney. Almost eight in ten expect Romney to win the nomination, and 87% believe that the likely Republican nominee is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama in November.

Assuming Romney wins in South Carolina, a win in Florida is almost assured.  With numbers like this, don’t be surprised to see more GOP figures lining up behind Romney in an attempt to unify the party early and aim its rhetorical guns at Team Obama.  That might be why John Bolton endorsed Romney late yesterday:

John Bolton, George W. Bush’s controversial Ambassador to the United Nations, will endorse Mitt Romney tonight, a Romney supporter told BuzzFeed.

Bolton tweeted earlier this evening that he plans to make a major announcement on Fox News’s “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.”

And while Jim DeMint has been careful to remain neutral, his advisors are climbing aboard Team Mitt, too:

A group of loyalists to South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint – including a top fundraiser for Rick Perry – will publicly endorse Mitt Romney’s presidential bid on Thursday, a source confirmed to CNN.

Former South Carolina GOP Chairman Barry Wynn, Columbia businessman and fundraiser Peter Brown, and Columbia attorney Kevin Hall will announce their support for Romney Thursday.

Wynn’s move to Romney is striking. The Spartanburg financial adviser is a member of Perry’s finance team and traveled to Texas in August to meet privately with the governor before he announced his bid.

Jeb Bush will probably wait for South Carolina to vote, but I’d bet that he will endorse Romney shortly afterward.

TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: demint; election2012; fl; florida; gingrich; romney; santorum
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To: Drew68

I like Perry, I really do.

However, the guy would lose a debate to a Quarter Pounder with Cheese. I know debates aren’t the end-all, but when you’re trying to change the national conversation, you have to be able to hold your own against the guy you’re trying to beat.

On the stump when campaigning, Perry is great. His ideas, rock solid. He even “looks” Presidential.

However, the debating issues, plus the fact that he sounds so much like Dubya when he talks would make him a weak general election candidate, unfortuntately.

21 posted on 01/12/2012 8:55:13 AM PST by RockinRight (If you're waiting to drink until you find pure water, you're going to die of dehydration.)
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To: TomGuy

Todd Palin endorsed Gingrich.

22 posted on 01/12/2012 8:55:55 AM PST by colorcountry (Comforting lies are not your friends. Painful truths are not your enemies.)
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To: Qbert

Free Public Polls are marketing tools ONLY, using the power of conformity on the Gullible. Teach others and take away their ability to manipulate elections:
The Power Of Conformity...

23 posted on 01/12/2012 8:56:05 AM PST by Mechanicos (Why does the DOE have a SWAT Team?)
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To: RockinRight

Perry should be the VP Choice.

24 posted on 01/12/2012 8:56:46 AM PST by dfwgator (Don't wake up in a roadside ditch. Get rid of Romney.)
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To: Terry Mross
Another scam. They release a “poll” showing Romney getting 35% of the vote and he gets very close.

So the fact that scientific polls, for the most part, are fairly accurate predictors of real election results is evidence they are a "scam"?


25 posted on 01/12/2012 8:57:20 AM PST by Strategerist
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To: GonzoGOP

The problem with the other candidates uniting against Romney is they all want a job in his cabinet. I predict you will see them all on stage at the convention with their hands together high in the air. Right after they’ve all made the nomination speeches.

26 posted on 01/12/2012 8:57:40 AM PST by Terry Mross (I'll only vote for a second party)
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To: All

These polls are meant to demoralize you, conservatives.

Keep the faith.

Remember, firstly, the GOP E is likely influencing these polls some.

More importantly, when Gingrich or Santorum loses in SC, one will drop out. This race in Florida is far from over.

IMO Gingrich wins SC and wins by 10% in Florida.

27 posted on 01/12/2012 8:58:28 AM PST by rbmillerjr (Conservative Economic and National Security Commentary:
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To: Qbert; Jim Robinson; onyx; fieldmarshaldj; Impy
A) Our Primary system sucks. We should have a National Primary Day. Sorry FReepers in Iowa, NH, SC and FL but why are your votes more important than mine?

B) Please email me with breaking news, especially if the Hitler from Venezuela or Iran dies because I am done with the news period! I'll stick with Whale War threads, Sports and Video Games. (I seriously found out about the Hitler from North Korea dying 2 weeks later because I tuned out...)

C) For the final time Rick Perry, please just go away so I can change my tagline back to "Go Bulls and Go Blackhawks!!!"

28 posted on 01/12/2012 8:59:09 AM PST by Dengar01 (Dengar01 - "Heartless" since 1983!!!)
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To: dfwgator

He might be if he keeps Newt out.

29 posted on 01/12/2012 9:00:45 AM PST by Sybeck1 (Mitt Romney, a piss poor choice)
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To: reasonisfaith
Whatever Romney’s true numbers are in Florida, they will fall even more after South Carolina.

A lot of Florida Republicans will have already voted by then. 425,000 absentee ballots have been requested, and 84,000 of those have already been returned:
30 posted on 01/12/2012 9:01:12 AM PST by Happy Valley Dude
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To: TexasFreeper2009

"what really makes me ill... I think early voting may have already begun in Florida (not sure)"

"Romney and Paul get jump on Fla. absentee voters"

"..Of all the candidates, Romney had the biggest jump on early voters, who started receiving ballots before he notched his first win at the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses.

The former Massachusetts governor's campaign is better organized in Florida than any other. And it immediately sent out literature to court voters as soon as ballots were sent in December. That meant some people opened their mailboxes to find both a ballot and an appeal from Romney."

31 posted on 01/12/2012 9:02:15 AM PST by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
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To: Qbert
Photobucket ...with a little help from their friends...Rush, Beck, Fox News, Bain, it's no surprise.
32 posted on 01/12/2012 9:02:32 AM PST by RetSignman (I take responsibility for what I post not for what you understand.)
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To: Qbert

Now what? About 130,000 have supposedly given Romney this “unstopable” surge and opposition people seem to be capitulating right and left. This is what happens when people try to pick a candidate based on “looks Presidential” or “can beat Obama”. Because, after all, Bachmann is too shrill, Cain is an accused sexual deviant, and Perry is as dumb as a box of rocks (super-mega sarc intended).

Romney is John Kerry Jr. I posted this article from Slate magazine that was written in 2004. The Democrats thought the same fallacious reasoning about Kerry being “more electable” and “could beat Bush” would win him the Election. It obviously didn’t. And now the Republicans are prepared to make the same mistake.

Don’t get me wrong. Romney could probably squeak by an Electoral victory, but what is it worth? The establishment would have regained control and any gains made in Congress would be lost. And most likely, in 2016, we would have Romney going up against another one of these liberal messiahs in the making that is Andrew Cuomo. If you care about social issues, the future looks bleak.

The Tea Party is going to have to become more formally organized so that candidates can be clearly vetted so what happens this year with defections doesn’t happen again.

Maybe things will chage in the upcoming weeks and Newt or Santorum or even a new entrant will emerge, but this just flat out sucks.
(Just change the name of Kerry to Romney, Bush to Obama, Dean to Gingrich, and Edwards to Santorum, and you’ve got almost exactly the same situation)

33 posted on 01/12/2012 9:02:35 AM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: Dengar01

This primary season sux and Ru Paul and Romney are the reasons.

OPEN primaries are the pits.

34 posted on 01/12/2012 9:02:43 AM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC - DONATE MONTHLY! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, let me know!)
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To: GonzoGOP

Time to DUMP NEWT and get behind the real conservative. He can’t win the South!

35 posted on 01/12/2012 9:02:43 AM PST by BenKenobi (Rick Santorum - "The Force is strong with this one")
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I don’t like a single one of them. I heard Newt on Hannity yesterday and all I could hear was a petty, petulant, childish boor. There is not a single candidate worth a damn in the race. We, at the risk of waxing dramatic, are doomed..

I don’t care what anyone says, we have lame candidates. And why is that? Because the GOP sucks. Rather than stand a year of scrutiny and I admit it will be a very harsh leftist media scrutiny, they put up someone that they think the NYT will not be mean to. Pathetic, simply pathetic, yet mere speculation of a 3rd party invites derision and scorn.
How did it ever get this bad?

36 posted on 01/12/2012 9:03:00 AM PST by cardinal4 (Bolton/Arpaio 2012 "Kick the UN across the border!")
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To: Qbert

Thats not good. Need either Newt or Rick to win SC and the other drop out.

37 posted on 01/12/2012 9:03:10 AM PST by wolfman23601
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To: Strategerist

It’s your belief that the polls are “scientific”. I believe they put out a poll and fix the vote to match the poll. In fact, I’m not sure why there is an election. The polls are always right on the money. Is that because they’re so “scientific”?

Just my belief so no need for the insult.

38 posted on 01/12/2012 9:04:26 AM PST by Terry Mross (I'll only vote for a second party)
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To: Sybeck1
I think Perry is in it so he can do as much damage as he can to Romney, on behalf of all NOT Romney voters and candidates.
39 posted on 01/12/2012 9:05:32 AM PST by LuvFreeRepublic ( (I am angry and that is why I am #withNewt))
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To: Strategerist


WHITE HOUSE INSIDER: Heads Up – The Cook The Books Campaign Is Underway

The above article is about Obama’s use of propaganda through polls, but the same tactic applies to the Republican establishment. No way do the elitists running this political party want their cash cow, the Federal government, changed.

35% is nowhere near enough to equal a majority. The conservatives need to get their act together.

40 posted on 01/12/2012 9:06:15 AM PST by SatinDoll (NO FOREIGN NATIONALS AS OUR PRESIDENT!)
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