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Poll: Romney's Lead Small Over Gingrich
Bluffton News ^ | 1-15-2012 | Walter Jones and Sarita Chourey

Posted on 01/15/2012 10:32:42 PM PST by TitansAFC

ATLANTA — As the GOP races settles into South Carolina, Mitt Romney isn’t enjoying the double-digit lead he held in New Hampshire, according to a survey conducted Wednesday night.

The former Massachusetts governor’s lead is so small in the Palmetto State that he’s essentially tied with Newt Gingrich, according to a poll for the Augusta Chronicle and Savannah Morning News conducted by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research.

Romney’s 23 percent and Gingrich’s 21 fall within the 3.6 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum, who came in second in the Iowa caucus is in third pace in South Carolina with 14 percent, while Ron Paul, the runner up in New Hampshire, is effectively tied with him at 13.

Jon Huntsman has 7, and Rick Perry has 5 while 17 percent are undecided or favor a candidate not offered as a choice in the survey.

The telephone survey questioned 726 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the South Carolina GOP primary. Voters don’t have to be Republicans to participate in the Jan. 21 balloting, but independents generally make up a small share of the total, according to pollster Matt Towery, president of InsiderAdvantage.

Romney, Gingrich and Paul all do equally well with the independents in the survey. Paul, though, is getting little traction from long-time Republican voters.

Romney does better with female voters while men prefer Gingrich.

“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich’s congressional campaigns before becoming a non-partisan pollster. “There is no other way to put it. This means it is a dead-even race. South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.”

Romney, on his second try for the nomination, won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary this month, the first non-incumbent Republican to do so. However, those back-to-back wins don’t seem to be giving him overwhelming momentum this far South.

Gingrich represented the western part of neighboring Georgia for 20 years in Congress and apparently knows how to appeal to southern voters who tend to be more concerned about social issues than those in New Hampshire.

The Jan. 21 GOP primary in South Carolina is regarded as the first meaningful contest because of what the results will signal for the party’s chances of defeating President Obama in November. Of course, it’s also stoking anticipation because of the legendary ruthlessness of the state’s political operatives.

Republicans in South Carolina like to remind people that their primary picks presidents, or at least presidential nominees. Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won 55 percent of the vote, no candidate has captured the Republican nomination for president without notching a win in South Carolina’s GOP primary. In the 2008 election, eventual-nominee John McCain won the South Carolina primary with more than 30 percent of the vote, trailed by Iowa winner Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Romney came in fourth in South Carolina with about 15 percent.

This time, the results will be dramatically different, as the state’s active Evangelical voting bloc is expected to set aside prejudice in favor of pragmatism. Support among their ranks may signal that they accept Romney, a Mormon, in part for being the candidate largely believed to offer the toughest challenge to President Obama.

Since Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, where Romney steamrolled his rivals with nearly 40 percent of the vote, the candidates have swarmed the Palmetto State. They are stumping at barbecue joints, pharmacies, universities and local government buildings. On Monday, the candidates are scheduled to participate in a debate in Myrtle Beach, hosted by the SCGOP, Fox News Channel, The Wall Street Journal, and Twitter.

Some are seeing the Palmetto State as their last chance to justify their candidacy.


TOPICS: Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gingrich; newt; romney; santorum
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1 posted on 01/15/2012 10:32:51 PM PST by TitansAFC
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To: kalee; TitansAFC; onyx; LuvFreeRepublic; Sea Parrot; SweetCaroline; matthew fuller; Gator113; ...

Newt PinG!


2 posted on 01/15/2012 10:33:44 PM PST by TitansAFC (Rick Santuckabee is 2012's version of Mike Huckatorum. Avoid Conservicide voting; support Newt!!)
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To: TitansAFC

Hopefully the pressure will get to Willie Mitty tonight during the debate..


3 posted on 01/15/2012 10:35:16 PM PST by Tennessee Nana
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To: TitansAFC

But will Romney get Huntsman’s 7% now?


4 posted on 01/15/2012 10:36:49 PM PST by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: TitansAFC

I’d like to see if this is last week’s poll or a new one over the weekend


5 posted on 01/15/2012 10:39:25 PM PST by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: TitansAFC

Titan,

This poll was taken Wednesday by insider advanatge— another Insider poll was taken today. That poll has Newt 11 ponts down.

I hope I’m wrong-— but the same poll shows Newt losing ground these past 4 days, doesn’t it?


6 posted on 01/15/2012 10:39:54 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: Tennessee Nana

I certainly hope so. I hope they can make him squirm, sweat and sputter.


7 posted on 01/15/2012 10:40:59 PM PST by annieokie
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To: VinL

No. It shows Newt steady, Mitt gaining, and Santorum dropping.

But it apparently was formulated differently, I’m being told. Apparently a different demographic calculation than used before. Not sure why.........


8 posted on 01/15/2012 10:42:34 PM PST by TitansAFC (Rick Santuckabee is 2012's version of Mike Huckatorum. Avoid Conservicide voting; support Newt!!)
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To: TitansAFC

You know, Titan, I HOPE you’re right.

Insider is sponsored by Newsmax— they have endorsed Newt. I can’t see this as good news. I hope I’m wrong.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/


9 posted on 01/15/2012 10:45:26 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: TitansAFC
But it apparently was formulated differently, I’m being told. Apparently a different demographic calculation than used before. Not sure why.........

Uh, because they're all push polls at this point. It's all about stampeding the "bandwagon jumper" demographic toward one candidate.

Those of you who are fixated on polls should cool it.
10 posted on 01/15/2012 10:46:01 PM PST by Antoninus (Mitt Romney -- attempting to execute a hostile take-over of the Republican Party.)
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To: VinL
" This poll was taken Wednesday by insider advanatge— another Insider poll was taken today. That poll has Newt 11 ponts down. "

Newt is up in the polls " Newtie, Newtie he's so awesome, he's god like " Yuppie !!! " ...

Newt down in the polls " ahhh these polls are fake, the heck with these polls... who needs these polls, Newt is going to win SC anyway " ......

Pride goes before a fall....
Pride goes before a fall....
Pride goes before a fall....
Pride goes before a fall....


The bible says so....


11 posted on 01/15/2012 10:50:22 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: TitansAFC
This is so aggravating! if only Santorum would implode quicker or drop out!

ARG!

12 posted on 01/15/2012 10:53:12 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: TitansAFC

I can see that Huntsman is trying to throw the race to Romney, by withdrawing and endorsing Romney. The SOB!


13 posted on 01/15/2012 10:54:21 PM PST by SatinDoll (NO FOREIGN NATIONALS AS OUR PRESIDENT!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009
" This is so aggravating! if only Santorum would implode quicker or drop out! "

Even if Santorum were to win SC and Florida, you would still be calling for him to drop out.... yeah, we get it..


14 posted on 01/15/2012 10:57:31 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: American Constitutionalist

“Even if Santorum were to win SC and Florida, you would still be calling for him to drop out.... yeah, we get it..”

What was that you were saying about “pride”?


15 posted on 01/15/2012 11:02:19 PM PST by ConfidentConservative (If my people shall humble themselves and pray,I will hear from Heaven and heal their land.)
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To: CaptainK

It looks like the most he can hope for is about half of that. I personally think its time for Perry to get out. He has no traction and even in SC is not gaining any. He is a good guy and conservative enough but at the end of the day that doesn’t win elections. Right now we have two real options against Romney and those are Newt and Santorum and Newt wins that hands down for me. He led the revolution that ushered in the election of Santorum and a freshman class of 1995 where the GOP took both the House and the Senate something that had not occurred in 40 years.
Newt has flaws but I know at the end of the day he won’t betray us on judges, he will fight alongside us and not against us where small govt is concerned and taxes (he actually has a record of balancing a budget and cutting the size of government). We can’t let perfect be the enemy of good enough or else we all lose with the election of our own Gerald Ford Romney. We have to hold the line in SC.


16 posted on 01/15/2012 11:06:48 PM PST by Maelstorm (Better to keep your enemy in your sights than in your camp expecting him to guard your back.)
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To: ConfidentConservative
* “Even if Santorum were to win SC and Florida, you would still be calling for him to drop out.... yeah, we get it..” *
" What was that you were saying about “pride”? "

What is your point ?

I said, even IF, Santorum were to actually win in SC and Florida, the Newt supporters would still be calling for him to drop out.....
They worship him as some kind of god like figure talking about how awesome Newt is, how brilliant he is..... and as I said.... Pride goes before a fall, the bible says so...
17 posted on 01/15/2012 11:12:20 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: TitansAFC
"The Jan. 21 GOP primary in South Carolina is regarded as the first meaningful contest because of what the results will signal for the party’s chances of defeating President Obama in November"

I don't consider their primary all that meaningful, since it's still an open primary, as was Iowa and NH.. Florida WILL be meaningful.

18 posted on 01/15/2012 11:16:02 PM PST by matthew fuller (We are getting McCained!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

It’s a perfect storm of frustration, too many conservatives in the damn race.


19 posted on 01/15/2012 11:17:26 PM PST by toddausauras (The)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

It’s a perfect storm of frustration, too many conservatives in the damn race.


20 posted on 01/15/2012 11:17:35 PM PST by toddausauras (The)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

It’s a perfect storm of frustration, too many conservatives in the damn race.


21 posted on 01/15/2012 11:17:37 PM PST by toddausauras (The)
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To: American Constitutionalist
I don't worship anyone. I just want to hold the line in South Carolina. Newt's numbers are higher than either Rick's. I know they are good people but they are beginning to get on my nerves either ego or just stubbornness. Time is running out and our side is not in order to hold off Romney. We need to win this first charge.
22 posted on 01/15/2012 11:21:34 PM PST by Christie at the beach
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To: Maelstorm
"I personally think its time for Perry to get out. "

Like you, I'm pro Newt, but I sort of feel like if Perry has enough money, why should he get out before FL, from his point of view? Fl is the first CLOSED primary state, and likely much more friendly to him.

23 posted on 01/15/2012 11:23:42 PM PST by matthew fuller (We are getting McCained!)
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To: Christie at the beach
" Newt's numbers are higher than either Rick's "

Ohh really ? you mean the same polls the Newt supporters have bashed or would bash if Newt is not ahead in them polls ? calling those polls a joke, fake polls... .... yeah, we get it alright, we know how the Newt supporters play this game...
24 posted on 01/15/2012 11:26:45 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: American Constitutionalist

I have no idea what you are talking about.

I just don’t want to see Romney winning South Carolina.


25 posted on 01/15/2012 11:42:04 PM PST by Christie at the beach
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To: Antoninus
Uh, because they're all push polls at this point.

Are you sure your definition of 'push poll' is the same as that of the rest of the world?

Here's the one and only question from the InsiderAdvantage poll (same question on both Wednesday and Sunday):

If the Republican presidential caucus or primary were held today, would you vote for Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, someone else or do you not know who you would vote for?

Unless I am mistaken, a push poll is one that contacts a huge number of targets (the InsiderAdvantage polls used samples of only about 725 people) and ask damaging, unfounded hypotheticals in order to influence the polled population's perception of a particular candidate. This doesn't seem to fit to me.

26 posted on 01/15/2012 11:55:02 PM PST by Antonello (Oh my God, don't shoot the banana!)
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To: TitansAFC

Hmmm let’s see... if Santorum and Perry drop out...maybe it’s

Newt 40

Romney 23

I hear Huntsman’s dropping out to help Romney... But don’t look like Perry and Santorum are going to do the same...

Maybe folks they’re staying in to help Romney too.

Newt, stay in this until they’ve all dropped out.


27 posted on 01/16/2012 1:48:30 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: American Constitutionalist

I think Santorum will do well enough in SC to keep going. Perry will drop out. Romney will have eeked out another victory...and maybe also in FL after witch Santorum will drop out...but has the damage been done?

Newt needs to stay in this race until it’s one on one.

Santorum is a good and decent man, but he is too weak with no new ideas or reforms. Just a lot of rhetoric. Sorry that’s how I feel.


28 posted on 01/16/2012 1:51:59 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: TitansAFC
Poll conducted Wednesday night, ROFLOL, real current, real current.
29 posted on 01/16/2012 1:53:27 AM PST by org.whodat (What is the difference in Newt's, Perry's and Willard's positions on Amnesty.)
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To: American Constitutionalist
The facts are newt saw from his own polling he was going down from his attack on the free markets, that is why he is currently trying to back track. Too late he and mr vulture from texas have stepped in it big time.
30 posted on 01/16/2012 1:56:45 AM PST by org.whodat (What is the difference in Newt's, Perry's and Willard's positions on Amnesty.)
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To: TitansAFC; All

CA voters understand the power of regret.
Arnold taught us lessons that we never will forget.

Like Romney, he had promises he never could fulfill.
Every chance he had, he blew, with every single bill.

Will SC be as clueless? Will they make the same mistake?
Will Perry and Santorum quit and save us from Mitt-fake?

Allowing moderates to win ensures a quick demise.
Will spoilers’ pride prevent what’s happening before our eyes?

With Newt, at least we have a fighting chance to coalesce,
to undermine the Mitt cabal and sink Obama’s mess.

WAKE UP, SC!!! Don’t let yourself be fooled by Romney’s charm.
He’s NOT sincere. His history is proof he’ll do us harm.

If being conservative to you means anything at all,
then don’t allow a Romney or Obama win. Stand TALL!!!


31 posted on 01/16/2012 2:12:24 AM PST by b9 (NEWT all the way)
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To: TitansAFC

Hope and pray Romney’s freight train is derailed.

Based on the surreptitious attacks on Newt back in Iowa by this guy’s PACs, there is NO DOUBT in my mind that the Bimbo assaults on Cain were Romney generated.

The entire GOP establishment - the very people who gave us McCain and Obama, is working overtime in high gear to get their “boy” nominated.

Romney is on RECORD supporting the Brady Bill and the Assault Rifle Ban and has said NOTHING to distance himself from that position - among many other things.

Bain is just the tip of the iceberg for this guy.


32 posted on 01/16/2012 3:10:59 AM PST by ZULU (LIBERATE HAGIA SOPHIA!!!!!)
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To: CaptainK

Very interesting that Huntsman chooses now to drop out, when Romney is in a tight race.


33 posted on 01/16/2012 3:12:16 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. Burke)
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To: American Constitutionalist

Actually the Bible says ‘Pride goeth before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall’


34 posted on 01/16/2012 3:13:45 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. Burke)
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To: American Constitutionalist
If you want to discuss the advantages of Santorum over Newt, fine.

But there seems to be this attitude on FR now that if you are supporting someone you are brainwashed and you can accuse him worshiping that individual.

This is simply a smear and not worthy of conservatives.

35 posted on 01/16/2012 3:16:45 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. Burke)
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To: nikos1121

Exactly, Santorum is not going to beat Obama.


36 posted on 01/16/2012 3:19:23 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. Burke)
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To: TitansAFC; All

I predicted 6 weeks before the Iowa Caucuses that Santorum would be the surprise coming out of Iowa. Now, with 75% of the Social Conservatives backing him, look for him to surge in the next 5 days. The fact that Romney is even leading in a State like SC is disturbing. But this is how it happens every year folks. Multiple Conservatives join the race; split the vote and the Moderate, Establishment candidate wins with a plurality. RINO-John (McCain) was broke and had no staff in New Hampshire and ended up winning the nomination In ‘08. It’s happened every election cycle since 1980.

Now, if RINO-Rom wins SC, whomever (Santorum or Gingrich) comes in closest to him needs to stay in the race. The other, along with Rick Perry, needs to drop out and unite behind one Conservative for Florida.

Am I right or wrong; anybody???


37 posted on 01/16/2012 3:20:39 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: TitansAFC
Romney does better with female voters while men prefer Gingrich.

The Arousal Gap returns.

38 posted on 01/16/2012 3:29:02 AM PST by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their President is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: fortheDeclaration

Unfortunately, he’s got a big dumb following here, and an ego to match it. How he actually thinks he’s can win is beyond me. I thought he was staying in to knock down Romney, but then last week he goes after Newt. At least Perry is consistently bashing Romney.


39 posted on 01/16/2012 3:54:51 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: TitansAFC

Not this thread, but the California Board has a real stinker of a troll the brain sewage needs to be removed from the board please.


40 posted on 01/16/2012 3:56:53 AM PST by rockinqsranch (Dems, Libs, Socialists, call 'em what you will, they ALL have fairies livin' in their trees.)
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To: TitansAFC

Sorry Titans I was using the report abuse facility of this thread at post #40 to tell the AM about a problem on the Cal Board, but hit the wrong button. Just ignore please.


41 posted on 01/16/2012 4:00:51 AM PST by rockinqsranch (Dems, Libs, Socialists, call 'em what you will, they ALL have fairies livin' in their trees.)
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To: no dems

I think Huckabee was the spoiler last time, only Romney would have been the candidate had he dropped out sooner, then maybe Romney would have beat Obama as the economy was a big issue.

This time we got Santorum doing the same thing. No money, no organization, just a big ego and a fuzzy headed following.

He’s a good and decent man. Would be great in various cabinet posts, but look he can’t even win his senate seat...B. He’s a light weight and looks even lighteer in those rediculous sweater vests.

C. He’ll hang in there as long as he’s making money selling vests etc. If you ad his totals to Newt’s we’re ahead. Perry too, and we’re way ahead.

I SAY THIS. NEWT PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE STAY IN THIS UNTIL IT’S JUST YOU AND ROMNEY. THEN PEOPLE WILL SEE THE DIFFERENCE.

DO WE REALIZE THAT ONLY LIKE 0.6 % OF THE REPUBLICANS HAVE VOTED THUS FAR? ARE WE GOING TO PICK THE WINNER FROM JUST TWO OR THREE STATE PRIMARIES?


42 posted on 01/16/2012 4:02:02 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: org.whodat

“he was going down from his attack on the free markets, that is why he is currently “

Newt didn’t attack free market principles, he attacked crony captialism. The only folks criticizing Newt are the liberal press and “so called” conservatives that have moved left beause they have something to gain from crony captialism.


43 posted on 01/16/2012 4:24:46 AM PST by swampfox101 (A)
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To: nikos1121

I agree. Newt needs to stay in for the duration.

Eventually, both Ricks will endorse Newt.

That leaves Newt, Romney and Paul (who is supporting Romney during the primary and will probably endorse Zero in the election HA)

When it’s down to Newt, Romney & crazy Paul...

Newt will win every state. Especially if he has both Ricks supporting him at appearances, etc.


44 posted on 01/16/2012 4:26:09 AM PST by show
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To: show

WE need to all pray about it, and be patient. Newt has the money and the backing and he knows in his heart that this is his and our country’s last chance.

Romney is not the man. Plus, it’s time for the republicans to clean house and get true democrats in there.


45 posted on 01/16/2012 4:30:03 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: swampfox101

You seem to have a complete misunderstanding of cronyism. Go buy a book.


46 posted on 01/16/2012 5:13:40 AM PST by org.whodat (What is the difference in Newt's, Perry's and Willard's positions on Amnesty.)
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To: org.whodat

....no, u need to take off those liberal rose colored glasses ur are reading with.....!


47 posted on 01/16/2012 5:25:21 AM PST by swampfox101 (A)
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To: swampfox101
Wrong again, you still do not know what cronyism is, I will give you an example. Cronyism is a former government person, using his knowledge to make money of the people that gave him the knowledge. Sort of like taking 1.6 million off of agency to interfere with proper legal oversight. That is one form, the other is lobby to get goods and services out of government that no one else gets.
48 posted on 01/16/2012 5:32:00 AM PST by org.whodat (What is the difference in Newt's, Perry's and Willard's positions on Amnesty.)
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To: American Constitutionalist

because Santorum can’t beat Romney.

Santorum never polled ahead of Romney nationally, Santorum never polled ahead of Romney anywhere that I am aware of, while Gingrich was polling 30-40 points ahead of Romney in some places at once time including swing states like Florida.

Listen, Santorum is a good guy... it’s just that he can’t beat Romney, not even in a one on one. Only Gingrich can do that.


49 posted on 01/16/2012 5:38:44 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: TitansAFC

This may be met with disagreement, but this could be the moment Palin can accomplish much good.

Palin has enormous influence.

After the SC primary, she should announce a press conference and publicly, clearly at the side of her decided upon candidate, endorse one of the remaining three candidates Gingrich, Santorum or Perry.

The moment that happens, that candidate will get an immediate 10% surge just from Palin’s endorsement alone, and it will almost certainly lead the other two to the logical conclusion they are now running a futile campaign.

In a sensible world (which we may still have) that conclusion will lead the other two, to climb down and send their supporters also, to the remaining champion, to then wage the real battle for the GOP against Romney.

Governor Palin, now is the moment you can alter the course of this election.

Please do.


50 posted on 01/16/2012 5:40:32 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (ROMNEY / ALINSKY 2012 (sarcasm))
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