Skip to comments.Insider Advantage Poll: Romney 32, Gingrich 21, Paul 14 (South Carolina)
Posted on 01/16/2012 8:15:21 AM PST by Bigtigermike
The latest Insider Advantage / Newsmax poll of likely South Carolina voters, taken on Sunday, shows Mitt Romney opening up a commanding 11-point lead and that was before Jon Huntsman dropped out of the race and endorsed Romney. Hell, Huntsmans still a point ahead of Rick Perry in this poll.
Mitt Romney - 32
Newt Gingrich - 21
Ron Paul - 14
Rick Santorum 13
Jon Huntsman 6
Rick Perry 5
Strangely, according to the poll breakdown, Newt Gingrich scored exactly zero among the youngest cohort of voters, ages 18-29. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum were tied among that group, with 27 percent each.
This poll has a fairly small sample of 720 respondents, but theyre likely voters, generally the most reliable group. If the results are accurate, it looks as if that tightening race in South Carolina has loosened back up, and undecided voters are starting to break for Romney. If Huntsmans endorsement sends some of his supporters Romneys way, and he holds the enormous 22-point lead Rasmussen found for him in Florida last week, Romney could end up taking both states in a walk.
(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...
The GOP will reap what they sow. In this case they planted an empty suit.
Santorum AND Newt AND Perry = Romney win
That's the math Romney is counting on. And it looks like we're going to give it to him.
Guess we’ll see the results of the most accurate poll pretty soon when the people of South Carolina vote. I do worry about democrats voting and skewing the results.
Santorum and Perry need to drop out so those antiMitt votes can be consolidated.
For what it’s worth, InsiderAdvantage seems to be well thought-of. It’s CEO is a former Gingrich advisor:
It’s probably whistling past the graveyard to think they are grossly inaccurate in these poll results.
Go Newt! I can't believe that many actual S.C. likely voters will vote for LRon.
Just as before, the strict libertarian is the triangulation putting the big government candidate in... ironic or intentional?
Yeah, wouldn’t it make more sense for those hoping to consolidate the anti-Romney vote to focus on Ron Paul rather than Santorum and Perry?
Of course we know he’ll never do it. And neither will Santorum, or probably Perry. Until the checkbook runs dry.
If Mitt were to win the nom, I’d love to see Newt/Palin or somebody go 3rd party. Newt would have nothing to lose. It’s not like he’s in congress and his seat would count in a narrow vote. Of course, I highly doubt this poll is accurate. With the debates, Newt will once again clean Mitt’s clock. By the way, Rick and Rick, do the right thing, drop out and endorse Newt! Go Newt!
It's a vast media/GOP establishment conspiracy to "force" us to vote for Romney.
(Haven't you seen those guns the "establishment" is holding to our heads?
(Well, polls do suck for real, but they get more accurate the closer it is to an election.)
30% for Romney means 70% against.
(Nevermind that there's no guarantee all of those 70% would vote for your favorite if their fav dropped out.)
Conservatives need to unite behind one candidate, so your candidate needs to drop out.
No YOURS does.
I hate you...you're eeeevil.
You're a RINO.
No, YOU'RE a liberal.
Shut up before you're zotted.
Go to DU where you belong.
And so it goes, on and on, forever taking our eyes off the real prize. Sigh.
“Newt Gingrich scored exactly zero among the youngest cohort of voters, ages 18-29.”
They want to hear about personal liberty and shrunken government. They -know- they will be paying for the present bloat. Newt has been big government. He needs to wrest that away from Paul to get the young ones.
It continues to be a 3-way split of the conservative vote and that is giving Romney the edge.
Santorum doesn’t have the organization to go much further, unless he inherits from some other candidate.
Gingrich has more baggage than Samsonite and we saw how the negative ads he whined about brought him down to #4 in both IA and NH. If he thinks Team Obama will play nice, he is delusional. They will make the Paul/Romney ads against him look like Saturday morning cartoons.
Perry just can’t get any traction, it seems. That is a shame, because he has the most governmental executive experience of any of the candidates.
Regardless, as long as the 3 continue, they will continue to split the vote and give Romney the edge. Which are hangers-on because of ego and which are hucka-hangers-on reminiscent of 2008?
In a CBS News Break the night of the NH primary, they reported that 65% of the voters expressed a desire to have someone else [other than the current slate] on the ballot. The voters are NOT happy with the current field. Again, reminiscent of 2008.
Great cartoon, in a head smashing, dismal way.
I was able to bring myself to vote for Dole and McCain, in no small part because of their military service.
I will not be voting for Romney.
The primaries election process with the early states has become a joke. Here’s my idea...divide the states into 4 regions and hold 4 separate voting dates overall and spread out. The order of each region to vote is selected at random each election cycle.
Kagan and Sotomayor will appreciate the two new picks on the SC your contribution will make.
Ouch! Now theres a guy that can appeal to all factions..
That tells you right there the poll is an outlier. Gingrich scored zero while Paul and Santorum are tied? Santorum would never tie with Paul among that age group. Doesn't make any sense. Let's hope there's not zero young people who have any sense.
“Kagan and Sotomayor will appreciate the two new picks on the SC your contribution will make.”
As I posted elsewhere today:
Here is another analogy. A choice is to be made between two men:
One is Ernst Julius Röhm, head of the Sturmabteilung, or Brownshirts. He is a Nazi. He is a personally brutish, squalid and morally depraved street thug. He is a drug abuser and a sexual predator and pervert. He is a chaotic train wreck.
The other is Heinrich Luitpold Himmler, leader of the Schutzstaffel, or SS. Like Röhm, Himmler is a Nazi. Unlike Röhm, Himmler is self controlled. In his personal life Himmler is a teetotaler, a non-smoker, and he is a family man, faithful to his wife and loving towards his daughter. In his professional life Himmler is orderly, diligent, detail oriented and punctilious. He is an effective and honest administrator.
Which is the better man? Which would you vote for, as between the two? In the event, Hitler opted for Himmler on the Night of the Long Knives. Indeed, for his purposes Himmler was the better man.
But say the choice was yours. Which of the men would you advance, if the power was held in your hands? How could you advance either one without aiding and abetting evil?
Romney and Obama have proven, demonstrable track records.
1) Both are responsible for entrenching and enabling abortion at will, and doubtless having effected more of them through their policies, Romney by making it cheaper with money taken in taxes from the general population, and Obama by holding the line as long as he could for post birth infanticide.
2) Both are contemptuous of the Second Amendment rights of Americans, which is to say the natural right of all persons to self defense.
3) Both are willing to compel government health care, which by definition can rightly be called health control. This is not the State in ones bedroom, this is the State in ones very medicine cabinet and ultimately veins - or not. It is, after all, not the individuals decision anymore.
4) Both are economic predators, as seen by their embrace not only of the TARP legislation, but the whole ideology behind TARP. There is a distinction in that Romney is corporatist, and Obama is a syndicalist, but that is as significant as whether one is eaten by hyenas or by jackals.
5) Both have repeatedly demonstrated their commitment to advancing homosexual copulatory arrangements and dignifying those liaisons with the name marriage.
6) Both are brazen deceivers, who have never admitted error, fault, or guilt as far as I know.
I regard neither Romney nor Obama as lesser evils. Both of these sociopaths are such great evils that I cannot push either one to greater power and influence. I will reject and oppose each of these demonstrably vile men with every fiber of my being. I will not participate in this game.
Insider/advantage is one of the more recent accurate polling
Yes, I'm talking to you if you're a Santorum or Perry supporter. And yes, I'm calling you stupid.
Anyone saying “let the process play out” is simply naive. The “process” is do or die in South Carolina. Gingrich must win SC and Florida. But all these people wanting to “vote for their guy” are going to give us Romney and Obama. It's that simple. To believe otherwise is naive at best, ignorant (despite the number of times it has been discussed on FR — so it's willful ignorance), and it is so selfish I can't believe it. Throwing our Country under the bus again just so you can be stubborn and “vote for your guy” — you're going to deserve everything that comes down the pike in the next 5 years.
Vote for the one not-Romney who can WIN. That is NOT Santorum and it's NOT Perry. It's GINGRICH.
Santorum + Newt + Perry > Romney
Santorum AND Newt AND Perry = Romney win
That’s the math Romney is counting on. And it looks like we’re going to give it to him.
The two with class and love for country that exceeds pride and love for self will drop out.
Should be pretty interesting around here come November.
And so it goes, on and on, forever taking our eyes off the real prize. Sigh.
Wolfstar, what’s the “real prize”? -:)
When was the poll taken?
So far Newt hasn’t placed at the top of anything. Until he does, the others won’t drop out. SC is crucial for Newt, if he doesn’t place well, the others won’t drop out unless they are broke.
They will be falling over each other to vote for Romney.
More likely, Newt scoring 0% with the 18-29 cohort simply means the poll is junk. NOBODY ever scores 0% with any cohort in any poll ever. That's pretty much statistically impossible.
You are probably correct. I do think though that conservatives really need to try to reach young voters on those issues where both conservatives and libertarians are congruent. Smaller government, lower taxes and personal liberty as guiding principles. I think Newt could pry much of Paul’s support away, but it would through those overtures, not through ad hominem attacks (however justified they may or may not be) on Paul.
There isn’t much that can be done with them.
The senerio has been laid out and is not difficult to grasp. They know that this split will result in Mitt, but as long as they can shroud themselves in the idea that they are being principled then they feel no responsibility in the results.
It is the “noble defeat” syndrome. Wont do a lick of good for the rest of us, but they will feel warm inside.
We can only hope S.C. voters turn pollsters on their heads.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Déjà vu all over again in remembering 2008.
John McCain's service in the Navy was like a demolition driver racing in the Daytona 500. He paid no attention to his studies or training at the Academy, and it showed. And I will always wonder about the REAL story of McCain's actions on the Forrestal that monstrous day - not the whitewashed, son (and grandson) of an Admiral version.
Well, if Newt did mount a 3rd party challenge just imagine the power he would have in October.
He could give the presidency to Romney or deny him the presidency.
Now thats a LOT of leverage. He could get Romney to commit to anything... just think about how badly Romney wants this.
They could unveil Romneys commitments and Newt could bow out at the end of the final debate...on live TV, in front of God and everybody.
Maybe so. But every pollster is bound to have an outlier now and then. The bottom line is that some of the details don't make sense.
I understand that McCain was deficient. But he was THERE. On the line. Willing, if not very able. That is all I am saying, and it is worthy of respect.
The Romney family is apparently service averse, going back for generations. I do not respect that.
These are politicians, not your church deacon.
And the conservatives basically do it to themselves every four years. Exception was Bush 2....I still consider him fairly conservative despite failings in some areas.
With Mitt at the Helm, say goodbye to any chance at making the Supreme Court fully conservative. He will pick moderates to the court.
He’s better than Obama, but that’s not saying much.
Next time, conservative groups need to have some kind of meeting or something to throw their support to one candidate and force the rest to drop out earlier.
These are the Romney supporters. (My wife's family is chock full of them). They like a candidate who is "conservative" in personality and image, not necessarily so much in ideology.
They are not that way because of mind control beams from Karl Rove's secret underground control center. They are that way because it's what they really believe.
I desperately wish that those who insist that "the Tea Party is a juggernaut and so deserves an easy win in any GOP primary" would wake up and smell the damn coffee. It ain't so. Not yet anyway, and maybe not for years.
As I have said again and again, it's easy to zot moderates and RINO's from FR. It is impossible to zot them from the GOP voting rolls. Only persuasion will work.
“They could unveil Romneys commitments and Newt could bow out at the end of the final debate...on live TV, in front of God and everybody.”
Then Romney would renege on everything he was inclined to.
The REASON conservatives are picking on each other is because the current conservative alternatives to Romney are weak (they may have pluses but their minuses are great)
If we can’t have clear sharp choice now tells me we have weak candidates
The problem is, if Mitt wins, I see this website likely destroying itself.
FR has put so much into stopping Mitt, if Mitt wins...this place will be hell on Earth.
All without trying to rally support around one conservative, so pretty much if Mitt wins, it will be because the conservatives failed to do what they needed to do to stop him.
“These are politicians, not your church deacon.”
You willfully miss my point. Both of these politicians are such abject voids that I will never support either one. I will not support the highbrow SS because it is ‘better than the lowbrow SA. Indeed we are not talking about deacons.
Ward heeler’s logic is meaningless when the candidates are distinctions without a difference.