How China is advancing its military reach

BBC News Asia ^ | 18 January 2012 | Alexander Neill

[sukhoi-30mki]

How China is advancing its military reach

As the US shifts its focus to Asia, Alexander Neill, head of the Asia Security Programme at the Royal United Services Institute, sets out the Chinese military advances challenging the regional balance.

At the Pentagon recently, US President Barack Obama announced deep cuts to the US military and set out a shift in attention towards the Asia-Pacific region, in a thinly-veiled message to China.

Despite a narrative of peaceful intent, China's leaders have struggled to reassure the US over the direction of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Both countries admit that their military dialogue falls well behind other aspects of the relationship.

So the shift has brought renewed scrutiny of the PLA's latest capabilities against US dominance in the Pacific.

In recent years the PLA has demonstrated impressive new capabilities at sea and in space, aimed at showcasing the success of its modernisation effort.

The obvious message is to deliver a powerful warning if Taiwan were to declare formal independence.

But Pentagon planners are now concerned that the Taiwan contingency has been eclipsed by China's broader maritime territorial claims and demands for more international space to protect the arteries feeding China's growth.

'Unrestricted warfare'

China is developing a range of capabilities linked to the space and cyber domain in order to sidestep the overwhelming might of the US military in the Pacific region. The PLA calls this fighting "local wars under informationised conditions".

China took the first step towards a space station when it launched the Tiangong 1 module

China recognised almost two decades ago that in the mid-term the PLA could be no match for US conventional forces. So it began working on what was dubbed "unrestricted warfare"

[sukhoi-30mki]

[JDW11235]

This is a really big issue, and with our military virtually at the hands of China (we buy chips, etc. from them), people are truly ignorant if they think China isn’t going to make some bold moves in the next 20 years when they have 300 million more men than women. I can see it now, “In the beautiful land (America’s name in Chinese), there are women, space, and lots of resources that they saved, just for us.”

I guarantee we’ll win that war, but I also guarantee it’ll come at great cost.

[spetznaz]

But ...didn’t Ron Paul say that if the US didn’t bother other countries they wouldn’t be a bother? /sarc.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

How?

I’ll tell you how.

With hundreds of billions of American dollars because of our huge trade deficit with China, because China is protectionist and we still buy everything they make.

How?

With “FREE TRADE” that’s how.

“Free trade” is a sellout of America, and American jobs.

And it’s creating a new, adversarial superpower.

Rapidly.

Wake up people.

[central_va]

In a possible(probable?) war with a hostile China, what do you think all those factories that now produce harmless toys, clothes and cell phones are going to be converted into? Munitions factories.....

[GonzoGOP]

That map shows the future of the Pacific Ocean. The US fleet is going to be pushed back to Hawaii. It won't be able to operate in the Western Pacific without the forbearance of the Chinese.

Of course if Obama was a real president we would develop similar ASBM technology and basing them in the Mariana Islands deny China access to its own coast. Then negotiate to remove them all in the same way that Reagan convinced the Russians to get rid of their SS-20s by installing our Pershing II and GLCM. Agreed to limit deployment of a weapons system unless the other side was deploying them as well. Doesn't matter if it is nukes, battleships, IRBMs, gas, bio or crossbows.

[Fee]

China will not fight a war with US unless as last resort. Reason is China is distant third in military power to US. However in terms of financial power, China has 2600 trillion in foreign exchange/assets while the US has only 150 trillion. In terms of financial muscle China has 10+ times the US. In theory the Chinese yuan should be the world reserve currency. China is using her financial surplus now while her military needs decades. US deficits already sunk one US carrier as the US navy must meet budget cutbacks by cutting one carrier from future fleet. China did not even fire a shot, and the US military is losing strength to budget cuts. As long as the US is politically paralyzed over tax increases vs spending cuts, the budget deficit will sink US power faster then the PLA threat. As we lose financial strength, Chinese financial superiority will be felt even more.

[JDW11235]

No, that’s not what he said, but he may as well have. His remarks last night were confused, jumbled, and showed a complete naivety. I was almost embarassed for him. Do I think we should not be nation building, sure. But Ron Paul has been taking things to the edge of hyperbole and beyond.

[JDW11235]

I understand where you’re coming from, but am talking about longer term. Sure China may take us out economically now, but to what end? You must remember the object of certain men throughout all time, expand and conquer. Don’t think China is any different. The intricacies of the methods they employ may be different from those in days past, but the principles are the same. Weaken the enemy, flatter them into a sense of security, and then strike. Don’t think they’ll stop at weakening. There are going to be hundreds of millions of men with no future, and no families. They will attack, even if to just keep them from rebelling at home. Think about it.

They wouldn’t attack us tomorrow, we’re not weakened yet. Wait a decade or two, and you’ll see. Obama already promised them land in 2009. They intend to cash in on it. If they cannot buy up our land and further use our laws against us (if there ever is a true restoration of the Constitution in this country, that will be a big issue with patriots), they WILL invade.

[Fee]

If China decided to go to war to alleviate domestic pressures, then they will have to climb thru a number of countries and one vast ocean to get to the US. If China need a war, fortunately for us, it will be with one of her neighbors. China needs us for markets, but would want to par our power down so they can dominate the Far East and maybe the world (if her GDP keeps growing and the yuan becomes the world reserve currency). Our own deficit spending and tendency to want to fight wars and police the world is doing China a big favor as we empty our treasury more and more.

[JDW11235]

“Our own deficit spending and tendency to want to fight wars and police the world is doing China a big favor as we empty our treasury more and more.”

Agreed. I guess we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out. If we get a strong conservative government back in the next decade or two, they might have a reason to ally with others to take us down. But who knows, I suppose. We’ll have to wait, prepare, and see.

[ex-snook]

Hey that’s not following the drum beat for war with Islam. China has a lot to threaten us while the whole of Islam does not have a world class military anything. We are led to cringe at the thought of people who have to steal planes, improvise devices and blow themselves up as military threats to our future. China is a far greater threat but corporate trade profits are irresistible. We would sell them the rope to hang us only that is made somewhere else too.

[Niuhuru]

“China will not fight a war with US unless as last resort. “

I like to think that the Chinese are only keeping their military updated and modernized for the sake of their own personal defense and interests. At the moment, the world isn’t the most stable and China’s main interest is making sure that if there is an attack, then they will be able to defend themselves, just the same as us. I don’t think the Chinese are interested in picking a fight with the US (which I am hopeful) for any reason, since there isn’t a good reason. At the moment the Chinese are responsibly building their military for use for defense or (God forbid) to end up making military maneuvers and possibly invading, who knows.

We should be doing the same, not treating our military as a playground for idiots who want to play at being soldiers. They are taking care of their interests and their interest is to have a fully functional military that can respond to the best of their ability. Creating and testing weaponry and naval maneuvers is an entirely legitimate thing for any country to do. We cannot realistically expect the Chinese to not take care of their interests just because we tell them to.

[ponder life]

These types of articles are meant to be alarmist. China's military spending, as a percentage of GDP, is no higher than many other countries with their peacetime budgets. The US supports many countries who spends more as percentage of GDP than China. One of the best examples if Saudi Arabia. US defense companies fall over one another bidding for Saudi defense contracts with the US government paving the way through negotiations, etc.

China spends 2-3% of her GDP on defense whereas the Saudi's spend about 10% of GDP. Saudi Arabia is not a democracy, a Muslim nation, and home to Osama Bin Laden. Women cannot drive in Saudi Arabia whereas women lead corporations in a higher percentage in China than many Western countries.

I bring up Saudi Arabia, not to criticize them, but to make a point. People can say what they want about China's military spending, whether they're targeting the US, whether they're going to be hostile, etc. But the real reason why many will embellish China's hostile intentions or even make them up, is for one reason and one reason only. That while China still has a long ways to go, she is the only country in the world that could be a peer to the US in military capabilities. And that alone, to many Americans is unacceptable. More unacceptable, than fully arming Saudi Arabia, a country that gives women no rights and is home to Osama Bin Laden, and to a Muslim population that is more suspicious of the US than the Chinese government.

In the eyes of many Americans, China building her military that could someday challenge the US is totally unacceptable, regardless of how close the ties could become. What's even more insulting, she is doing it not with 25% of GDP as with the former Soviet Union, but with a mere 2-3% of GDP. And she may boost in to a whopping threatening (sarc) 4% someday.

China is a nation of 1350 billion people that is modernizing and becoming a developed country. She should have a military commensurate with her economic strength. And she will threaten no one.

If America gets attacked in the future, it will likely come from one of those countries where the US defense industry have F-15, F-16, etc. contacts with. Yet, it matters not what the Saudi's do, how much they spend on military, etc., because as a nation, they could never challenge the might of the US military. And selling the Saudi's military keeps the other Arab countries in check (and separate). And helps offset oil purchases from OPEC.

If China and the US ever do go to war, it will likely be started by the Americans resenting China's growing influence in the world.

[ponder life]

And it’s creating a new, adversarial superpower.

A superpower, maybe, but definitely not adversarial. Those in China who do come across adversarial are so because they have watched people like Donald Trump and Lou Dobb's who are resentful of China's rise.

America will go to war again, not in the the near future, but there hasn't been a time the US has not been in a war for more than a generation, and I don't believe the post Iraq/Afghanistan years will be any different. And you will see, it won't be China. But likely, a country that the US had supported militarily.