Posted on 01/18/2012 8:04:52 AM PST by wolfman23601
The race for the Republican presidential nomination is now nearly even with Mitt Romney still on top but Newt Gingrich just three points apart.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide shows Romney with 30% support and Gingrich with 27% of the vote. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, who was running second two weeks ago, has now dropped to 15%.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul captures 13% support from likely primary voters, and Texas Governor Rick Perry remains in last place with four percent (4%). Another four percent (4%) like some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
But the story in the new numbers, taken Tuesday night, is Gingrich’s jump 11 points from 16% two weeks ago. Romney’s support is essentially unchanged from 29% at that time, while Santorum is down six points from 21%. Paul’s and Perry’s support is also unchanged. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman earned four percent (4%) of the vote at the start of the month but dropped out of the race this week. This suggests that many voters are still looking for an alternative to Romney and currently see Gingrich as that candidate.
Among Republican primary voters nationwide, 34% think Romney is the GOP candidate who would do a better job managing the economy, but almost as many (29%) feel Gingrich would do the better job. Paul’s a distant third at 14%. When it comes to national security and defense, Gingrich is the clear leader: 43% think he would do a better job versus 18% who say the same of Romney.
Indicative of how fluid the race remains, just 41% of likely GOP primary voters nationally are certain of how they will vote at this time. Most (51%) say they could still change their minds, and another seven percent (7%) haven’t made an initial choice yet.
The jump in Gingrich’s support nationally comes after a Monday night debate in which most analysts said the former speaker did very well. Immediately prior to that debate, Romney’s lead had grown in South Carolina. Romney also has a big lead in the January 31 Florida Primary.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Still, 70% of Republican voters nationally believe Romney will ultimately win the party’s nomination. Just 13% think Gingrich will get the party’s nod. A plurality (43%) continues to believe Romney would be the strongest challenger to Obama, but 29% now think that of Gingrich, up from 17% two weeks ago. Paul remains the GOP candidate viewed as the weakest potential challenger.
Gingrich and Perry have been especially critical of Romney’s performance as a venture capitalist at the Bain Capital firm and have highlighted the job losses from some of his investments. But 59% of likely GOP primary voters feel that Romney’s business experience is primarily a reason to vote for him, while just 20% think it’s chiefly a reason to vote against him. Twenty-one percent (21%) are undecided.
Gingrich led the pack with 38% support, and Romney was a distant second at 17% in late November. But the former House speaker fell back under a barrage of negative ads and media stories. Santorum surged early this month following his photo finish with Romney in the Iowa caucuses.
Voters nationally are more evenly divided on the question, but a plurality (48%) still thinks Romney would do a better job than Obama in dealing with the economy.
The former Massachusetts governor is still the best liked of the GOP hopefuls, with favorables of 68%. Santorum is viewed favorably by 59%, Gingrich by 58%, Perry by 41% and Paul by 34%.
Gingrich leads Romney 35% to 25% among GOP voters who describe themselves as Very Conservative, while Romney posts a similar 33% to 23% lead among those who are Somewhat Conservative. Santorum still gets 18% support from Very Conservative voters, but that’s down slightly from two weeks ago. Gingrich has been pushing for conservatives to rally behind his candidacy to stop the more moderate Romney from getting the nomination.
Among Tea Party Republicans, it’s Gingrich 39%, Romney 21% and Santorum 20%. Romney holds a double-digit lead over Gingrich among GOP voters who are not members of the grassroots movement.
Romney also holds modest leads among all religious groups except Evangelical Christians. Those voters prefer Gingrich over Romney by nearly two-to-one – 36% to 19% - with Santorum at 16% and Paul at 12%.
Seventy-six percent (76%) of all Republican primary voters say they will vote for the GOP candidate even if their favorite doesn’t win the nomination. Ten percent (10%) will opt for Obama instead, while eight percent (8%) would vote for a third-party candidate. Paul’s supporters continue to be the ones most likely to vote third party, with 29% saying they would do so.
Just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters think the country is heading in the right direction, and only 12% even somewhat approve of Obama’s performance as president. Eighty percent (80%) believe it is at least somewhat likely the Republican nominee will win the election in November, including 45% who say it is Very Likely.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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And do what? Stick up for his big government, liberal record?
Cheer leading for Mutt will get you banned from FR. You ought to know that by now.
Hannity played it on his show, and it is a scorched-earth ad. Talent claims that he and other House members asked Gingrich to leave the Speakership, and that he was working against his own party. It was a very vicious ad.
Newt again looks like the one who can stop Romney.
If that’s what you want SC, vote for Newt on Saturday.
Newt again looks like the one who can stop Romney.
If that’s what you want SC, vote for Newt on Saturday.
I’m in Upstate SC. The last two days I am hearing that this thing is going to break for Newt. I work with the head of his campaign here in the Upstate. She was so excited today. She is very connected with top GOP leaders in SC. They are saying that he has a very good chance of beating Romney. I have convienced many ppl in the last 24 hrs to vote for Newt instead of Santorum or Paul. Most of them are saying that they have changed their mind due to his showing in the debate. And the Paul supporters are realizing he does not have a chance to win. I think it his to lose. And I will predict right now that he beats Romney on Sat.
Are you a Mitt fan?
If your answer is yes,
then
IBTZ
I don’t think he’s defending Romney nearly so much as attacking the Dems line of attack. They could say similar things about the financial dealings of all the candidates, and Rush would stand up for them, too, like he always does when the dems go after capitalism. (Or, when he thinks they’re going after capitalism.)
I think Rush is being pragmatic, and sticking to the fight all things democratic meme.
“I think Rush is bipolar. One week he’s for Newt, slamming the liberal Romney. He said two weeks ago Newt was right to go after Bain because of the way Romney went after Newt in Iowa. Now Rush sees that Gingrich just might come out on top in this race and all the sudden he praises Romney. The man needs to get off the oxyconden. He changes his mind more than a woman.”
Ever since Tim Tebow put a smackdown on the Steelers, he’s been off his game.
“The race card is being used against Newt BIG TIME”
When you start getting one of the holy trinity’s of Leftism, you know you are feared ...and we know who we should be supporting.
LOL!
I also orderd a Newt mug and my wife took it away from me and took it to work where it would get exposure. I also ordered bumper stickers and push cards with his new “Contract with America” to give away. I think I’ll order another mug.
In recent decades, Ronald Reagan is the only American president who was so familiar with our founding ideas that he could weave them into discussions on "issues" of the day; thereby giving clarity to threats to liberty.
The goal of the primaries is to determine a candidate who can bring such clarity to the ideas of conservatism that Obama's counterfeit ideas will be defeated"
Newt's the only one who has that ability...only one!
Go Newt Go!!!!! That's exactly right...tweaked a bit....
I though JRob got rid of all the Mittbots??
Hank
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