Skip to comments.CNN/Time Poll: Race for South Carolina tightening
Posted on 01/18/2012 1:38:33 PM PST by TBBT
Charleston, South Carolina (CNN) - With three days to go until the first-in-the south primary, Mitt Romney remains in the lead in the Palmetto State, but according to a new poll, his advantage over Newt Gingrich is rapidly shrinking.
A CNN/Time/ORC International poll indicates that 33% of likely South Carolina Republican primary voters say they are backing Romney, with 23% supporting Gingrich. The former Massachusetts governor's 10 point advantage over the former House speaker is down from a 19 point lead two weeks ago. According to the survey, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is at 16%, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is at 13%, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry stands at 6%.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...
"Gingrich appears to be the only candidate with momentum as the race in South Carolina enters the final few days," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Support for Romney and Santorum appears to be slipping, and Paul and Perry seem flat. Gingrich, however, has gained ground and cut Romney's lead in half since early January."
Nearly all the interviews were conducted before the Palin's Tuesday night remarks and before Monday night's presidential debate. Most pundits agree that Gingrich had a strong performance at the debate in Myrtle Beach, S.C. At the same showdown, Romney came under attack by his rivals for hedging on whether he would release his tax returns.
The poll in South Carolina was conducted for CNN and Time magazine by ORC International from January 13-17, with 505 voters who are likely to vote in the Republican primary questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Momentum, momentum, momentum...
This is YOUR LAST CHANCE to defeat Romney, folks.
It’s your choice.
Either your gather under ONE candidate, or it’s over.
Some notes (I already read the internals)
1. The most conservative part of the state is the Lowcountry (area between Charleston and Savannah). The internals by region list Lowcontry numbers as N/A.
2. Poll was conducted the 13th through the 17th. Only one day was after the debate.
Given those very large disadvantages/biases, I’d say Newt is doing pretty well only down 10.
Since this a 4 day poll it doesn’t tell us as much. Did Gingrich’s gains occur in the last two days indicating a stronger surge, or was it a smaller steady increase over the 4 days?
The poll also Santorum starting to slide... When did that occur?
“Either your gather under ONE candidate, or its over.”
“we all gotta back Noot”.
Why not be honest about it?
I’m backing Santorum. He’s earned my vote. Newt has not.
Gingrich is the only choice...warts and all...and wow, he does have warts.
Romney, at heart, is a big government liberal who will accomodate the Democrats and take the government into insolvency. He will do it slower than Obama, but he will do it.
Gingrich will fight. He will fight Obama and like Lincoln followed Stephan Douglas around until Douglas agreed to a series of debates...Obama will have no choice. Without a teleprompter The One is history.
Please, South Carolina, vote for Gingrich.
“The poll also Santorum starting to slide... When did that occur?”
Do I have to post the old polls - again?
He was at 16 before.
Then you are voting for Romney...
“According to the survey, which was also released Tuesday, Romney stood at 43%, with Santorum at 19%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 9% and Perry at 2%.”
Did you miss this, TBBT?
Santorum’s second in FL.
Tell me which one has the conservative viewpoint?
First of all... Are you a S.C. resident?
. . . just like you are voting for Obama.
We need all conservatives to coalesce around our leading conservative in South Carolina to defeat the establishment’s RINO!!
Don’t let RINO Romney leave South Carolina with the big MO!!
Go, NEWT!! Take the wind out of Romney’s sails!!
Rebellion is brewing!!
You heard it right here folks. If you vote for anyone other than Newt - you’re supporting Romney.
I’ve noticed that the polls move when the spotlight switches to the state having the primary. I imagine that will happen in Fla too.
“Im backing Santorum. Hes earned my vote. Newt has not.”
Then I’m sure you will be very happy when Romney loses to Obama, as well, then?
HOPEY-CHANGEY! (And all that crap.)
I’m in TX.
The who you are going to vote for is irrelevant.
It would be nice if all of the information were reported, not just some.
“If you vote for anyone other than Newt - youre supporting Romney.”
Said much better than I could...
The only thing falling on your sword to prove a point does, is leave you DEAD.
Better to just immoliate yourself with gasoline.
At least that will make it on to YouTube.
“Then Im sure you will be very happy when Romney loses to Obama, as well, then?”
Why would I be happy with that outcome? I’m not a Newt supporter.
If I wanted someone who consistantly lost to Romney, I’d vote Newt.
Yes please, sir. May I have another?!
Then where are you from, TBBT?
Ahh, so voting for Santorum is the same as burning myself with gasoline.
I thought it was about principles, not intimidation. Apparently I was wrong.
You’re a RomneyBot just here to stir sh!t up aren’t you?
Only way to explain it... Nobody could that daft...
I don't know whether to laugh or cry. I think laugh because all you suckers have pulled this shit for at least 4 different candidates jumping from candidate to candidate and now you have Romney's twin only with worse ethics, infidelity, and less attractive.
At this point who cares, if the choices are Mitt/Newt vs. Obama I choose Mitt. At least he can win and even challenge for toss up states even though his record sucks. Newt hasn't had a record in 15 years and he ended it being kicked out by staunch Conservatives and fined 300,000 dollars.
Last chance to beat Romney? It's over boys and girls. Perry and Santorum supporters don't like Newt because he's an unethical scumbag who flip flops as much as Mitt. Sarah Palin has lost her freaking mind and the "evangelical leaders" look like a bunch of confused clowns.
So we should coalesce around the guy (Gingrich) who finished 4th (in Iowa) and 5th (in New Hampshire)?
This would tighten to 30-26 for Mitt/Newt if Perry dropped out before Saturday.
If Romney makes it to the nomination, it will be solely due to the divided conservative vote. Santorum is a fine candidate, but Newt is the obvious challenger to Romney. Hopefully people will figure that out before it’s too late.
we all gotta back Noot.
Why not be honest about it?
Im backing Santorum. Hes earned my vote. Newt has not.
First of all, referring to Gingrich as "Noot" is childish. Perhaps it's the unrealistic childish mentality that believes Santorum can win against Obama.
Why not just change parties and wait until the presidential election, and vote for your favorite candidate.:
Go Newt, a lot of us are gathering behind you.
Thanks for the Daily Kos viewpoint...
Youre a RomneyBot just here to stir sh!t up arent you?
Only way to explain it... Nobody could that daft...
“NOOT” is how the Daily Kos whackos refer to Gingrich.
Unearthed a TROLL, have we???
“First of all, referring to Gingrich as “Noot” is childish. Perhaps it’s the unrealistic childish mentality that believes Santorum can win against Obama.”
I prefer data, actual polling that demonstrates that Santorum is within the MOE vs Obama, and (more importantly) is holding Obama under 50 percent.
But supporting someone other than Newt makes me ‘childish’. Good to hear it.
Got any more personal attacks that you want to get worked out?
Yeah, you simply can’t understand how a principled conservative could reject Newt Gingrich in favour of Rick Santorum.
Ask around, we’ll be happy to explain our position and why.
According to the poll mentioned here, either Santorum or Gingrich would beat Romney one-on-one. Gingrich is stronger in this poll, however.
After the results are tallied in SC, we will know which of the two should think seriously about getting out for the good of the country.
Considering that I ran the Cain list, yeah that makes me a ‘troll’.
No, I’m just a conservative who really does not like Newt and supports Santorum now that my first choice is out.
But then, if you actually did your research, you would already know this.
“I thought it was about principles, not intimidation. Apparently I was wrong.”
BenKenobi, I’ve enjoyed your other posts in the past, so I’m not trying to pick a fight when I say:
Politics is a strange blend of acting upon principles . . . and dirty street fighting. The principles give us something worthwhile to aim at. But sometimes we must employ the street fighting mode to get there.
I personally am supporting Newt, not because he’s wonderful, but because I think he can *ultimately* win against Obama. Santorum is a good guy. A very good guy, in fact. But I think he is utterly unelectable against Obama. In his personal presentation (i.e., how he speaks, walks, holds himself, blinks at the camera) Santorum comes off as weak. The human animal has a strong inclination to pick the alpha male in any confrontation. Seriously, look back at the presidential elctions within our lifetimes, and you’ll see that it was always the “weak” appearing, “beta” male that lost. He also holds extremely conservative social positions (being against birth control, for example) that will not attract any Independent voters at all, and won’t even attract a lot of people who don’t pay a lot of attention to politics, but usually vote Republican.
Love Santorum as much as you want to . . . but please be aware that he really is unelectable in the general. Then act according to your conscience. *My* conscience tells me to support the guy who I think can *win* against Obama.
We’re in the dirty street fighting phase of the election.
“Love Santorum as much as you want to . . . but please be aware that he really is unelectable in the general. Then act according to your conscience”
I’ve seen polls putting Santorum at 45-48 within the MOE vs Obama nationally.
He CAN win against Obama. Here’s the thing, anytime an incumbant polls under 50 percent against a challenger, he’s vulnerable because the challenger is less known and the undecideds usually break towards the challenger.
“In his personal presentation (i.e., how he speaks, walks, holds himself, blinks at the camera) Santorum comes off as weak.”
“Seriously, look back at the presidential elctions within our lifetimes, and youll see that it was always the weak appearing, beta male that lost”
Carter won, Obama won, GHW Bush won. I could go back further.
Coolidge one of the best presidents ever - look at the guy. Wilson, again, Truman, etc. Even FDR.
I see what you are saying, but here’s the problem. Newt is radioactive with independents. People are going to crawl over broken glass to vote against him. Some of these folks are the folks whom we need to win.
This is true for Santorum too, but for him, it’s the hardcore gay folks, the atheists, etc, folks who are very unlikely to vote for us. The difference is that folks are going to crawl over broken glass to vote for him. Santorum is the kind of candidate that a lot of folks have been waiting for a long time.
Newt, a lot of people are going to be less motivated to vote for him. Everyone who comes out says, we gotta get behind him because ‘he has the best chance to win’, etc.
Vote for Santorum, get Romney.
Vote for Romney, get Obama.
Plain as the nose on one’s face.
But try convincing Santorum. Funny how politicians turn into specific idealists. He thinks he can win.
He hasn’t a Specter of a chance.
I have come back to Newt after more than 10 years.
His Monday night performance reminded me of the revolutionary Newt of ‘94.
He is powerful and bold. I will pray that he stays this way and permanently stops the bloody appeasing of RINOs and Leftists that have purposefully pillaged and derided this great country for their own ends.
I urge all my longtime conservative friends to get behind Newt with intense passion.
Gingrich - President
Perry - Vice President
Cain - Secretary of State
Palin - Secretary of Defense
Bachmann - Attorney General
Paul - Secretary of Treasury
Romney - Whitehouse Dogwalker
Perry hasn’t enough numbers in any poll to make a difference by dropping out. Nor could he credibly endorse Newt, after that pointed remark he made about Newt’s character (”If you’d cheat...”)
It’s Santorum who’s being dog in the manger right now. The numbers he’s polling will do him no good, but he won’t let anyone else have them.
You know that's not what TBBT meant.
It's not rocket science. It's pretty simple arithmetic. Santorum simply does not have enough support to beat Romney in South Carolina. Newt, on the other hand, is running between 3 and 10 points behind Mitt (depending on what poll you're consulting).
Newt is much closer to catching Romney than Santorum is, ergo, any vote for the guy who can't catch Romney, is a vote taken from the guy who can.
If you want to vote for Santorum out of purely ideological reasons, then fine, but you really ought to quit trying to convince everyone that the numbers don't say what they do, and that Santorum has any chance of beating Romney for the nomination. He just doesn't.
Well that's a relief, since we all know one poll snapshot will clinch the nominee.
Seriously, I like Santorum's conservatism, but he's a mild mannered, doofus with poor logic and communication skills, and would be eaten alive by the $1 bn Obama teleprompter machine.
Perhaps you've missed dozens of these types of comments by Gingrich.
Catch a glimpse of Santorum as "Howdy Doody" look.
By already announcing a challenge to Obama for seven three hour debates, Gingrich has pre-empted all the other candidates.
Does anyone think any of the other candidates can put Obama's feet to the fire as strongly as Gingrich can?
Well, I'm sorry to hear that you're so conflicted. You must be, if you'd even consider voting for Mitt.
If you can't vote for any of our candidates with a clear conscience, at least get to the polls and vote the down-ticket races.
Newt is IT !!
Here we go.