Skip to comments.South Carolina poll: Gingrich by six? (PPP One-day Snapshot)
Posted on 01/19/2012 2:12:53 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Something to whet your appetite for tonight’s Thunderdome debate. Could Newtmentum really have shot him to a six-point lead after he trailed Romney by double digits just a few days ago? Note that PPP’s data comes from a one-day snapshot, which means a smaller-than-usual sample, which in turn means a larger-than-usual margin of error of five points. Newt’s may very well be leading right now, but … by six?
Even so, as I write this, InTrade gives him a 42.5 percent chance of winning on Saturday. After Perry’s endorsement, Palin’s quasi-endorsement, and Santorum’s fade, who wants to bet against him?
This is not a case of Romney imploding. His support has been pretty steady in the 28-30% range in our South Carolina polling so far. But Gingrich has risen from 23% to 34% over the last two weeks, benefiting from declining support for Santorum and also from undecided voters moving into his camp.
It’s clear that the debate Monday night did a lot to help Gingrich’s prospects in the state. 56% of voters say they watched it, and with those folks Gingrich’s lead over Romney is 43-27. Romney still has a 29-22 advantage on Gingrich with those who didn’t tune in.
Gingrich is starting to consolidate his support with some of the more conservative parts of the South Carolina electorate. He has a 50-18 advantage on Romney with Tea Party voters. He’s up 39-23 with those describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ And he even has a 37-20 advantage with evangelicals.
Perry’s supporters actually divide fairly evenly among the rest of the field when you ask them who their second choice is. Maybe his endorsement today will change that, but even if it doesn’t, it’s useful to Newt as further evidence that he’s the anointed Not Romney in the field, not Santorum. If Santorum finishes a distant third or even fourth this weekend, the commentariat will be all over him next week to drop out and then maybe Florida will become interesting. I still think Romney wins there because he’s the only one with the money and organization to play hard, but what happens if Newt has another stellar debate tonight and shocks the world with a landslide on Saturday? Romney can handle finishing second in SC, but if he gets blown out the media will go nuts with stories about a resounding rejection from the southern base and his mystique of inevitability being shattered. For now, at least, Team Mitt is putting on a brave face:
South Carolina is like Iowa an opportunity that we never thought we would get, [a Romney campaign] source said. If you dust Newt up there so that Santorum stays alive, Newt gets no traction heading into Florida, where he has no structure, and then into a month, February, where there is no obvious good state. Points fell off Newt fast when voters were reminded of his entirety, not just his facility as a debate presence.
The source said the Romney campaigns goal in South Carolina remains the 34 percent John McCain won here in 2008, which the campaign estimates will be enough to win, so long as conservatives dont consolidate around either Gingrich or Santorum. And the campaign is not worried about Santorum.
That was published yesterday afternoon. There’s been a fair amount of consolidation in the 27 hours since — 100 tea-party leaders from 25 states are reportedly set to endorse Newt today — and there may be more to come tonight depending upon how things go on CNN. Good to know that we finally have an a Not Romney. Too bad it’s a guy who was famously unpopular the last time he held major public office, who couldn’t pull it together enough to get on the ballot in his home state, who’s flirted with the individual mandate and cap-and-trade, and whose penchant for loose-cannon grand pronouncements is guaranteed to generates oodles of “unhelpful” news cycles if he’s the nominee. Come next week, your choice will be between him, Captain Flipflop, and Ron Paul. Worst field ever. Ever.
Newt is clicking with the American people, now! Hence the D-Day scale assault by ABC and the rest of the MSM.
HE MUST NOT BE PERMITTED TO RUN!
“If Santorum finishes a distant third or even fourth this weekend, the commentariat will be all over him next week to drop out and then maybe Florida will become interesting”
That's where a record comes in. Not just the record of votes, which is often a meaningless toll of positions taken for political reasons on bills that were always going to pass or were never going to pass, but a record of actions taken that actually mattered.
A record of actions taken that actually mattered. Newt is the man who fits that description to a "T".
He can identify what is most important to the country, develop a plan to overcome that challenge, articulate the the merits of overcoming the challenge and why the plan will work.
I hadn't been for Gingrich initially and spent plenty of energy excoriating him, these last several years, for any number of sins he committed against the Republican/Conservative ideals. He seemed a turncoat of sorts, particularly when he babysat Pelosi on the couch.
On reflection, Newt is an attention whore seeking relevancy for his ideas and I guess I take him at his word that he made a few mistakes in his life and he has at least some regret for those decisions. God knows I am no angel and so I have to reflect on the man's ability to get things done.
Newt gave us the Republican majority, the Contract with America and completed 2/3rds of his agenda while in office.
He now has a new plan for America and with what is likely to become a Congressional Super Majority and a Senate Majority, if not Super Majority, I believe he will absolutely accomplish his agenda.
Say goodbye to ObamaCare the single biggest scam and travesty foisted upon a free people who, by right, ought to have been given the opportunity to read the bill and debate it. Instead, a win at all cost, cheating agenda was developed and it was signed with most people never laying eyes on at least page 2 of this utopian dreck.
Executive Orders Positions:
The following are all within the executive powers to simply order and with the exception of securing the border within one year, they are all easily accomplished with the stroke of a pen and no way to challenge them in the legislature.
Keystone may be challenged in the courts but I think the Executive can order the EPA to approve, under National Security Priorities and it is a National Security issue, as well, a jobs issue.
As President, Newt, could actually have a very busy 1st week or month just on these initiative alone.
1. Eliminate the thirty-nine White House "Czar" positions created during the current administration. The president does not have the authority to appoint bureaucrats to power who are not accountable to the Congress.
2. "Mexico City Policy" of Respect for Life. Reauthorize President Ronald Reagan’s policy – also known as the "Mexico City Policy"— to stop tax payer dollars from being used to fund or promote abortions in foreign countries.
3. Restore conscience clause protections for Healthcare Workers.No American working in a medical environment should be forced to perform any procedure that he or she finds morally or ethically objectionable based on religious teaching. This protection should include, but not be limited to abortion. Existing conscience clause protections need to be strengthened.
4. Respect Each Sovereign Nation’s Choice of its Capital. Each sovereign nation, under international law and custom, may designate its own Capital. Accordingly, the U.S. State Department should be instructed to respect the choice of each sovereign nation and place the American embassy in their Capital. (Israel is the only country the United States discriminates against in this regard. The people of Israel have designated Jerusalem as their capital. Yet the United States retains its embassy in Tel Aviv.)
5. End the Attorney General's Assault on the States. Instruct the Attorney General to withdraw all immigration-related lawsuits against states immediately, including those pending in Arizona and South Carolina. The Obama Administration refuses to enforce federal immigration laws, and instead sues states who are merely trying to enforce the laws that the federal government neglects. The Gingrich Administration will secure the border by Jan. 1, 2014 by any means necessary.
Unleash American Energy by Approving the Keystone XL Pipeline. Instruct the State Department to approve a Presidential Permit immediately for the Keystone XL pipeline, a project that will send 700,000 barrels of oil a day from Great Plains and Southwestern states to Gulf Coast refineries lower staggering energy prices, and create up to 120,000 American jobs.
Now we get into the details of an inclusive agenda that brings the people(you and me), through their representatives, into process. The TEA Party and conservatives are going to have a majority in both houses.
Let’s elect an Executive who will absolutely fulfill the promise of our ideals.
Newt gave us the three most important victories of the 90’s Welfare Reform, Balanced Budget and Reduced Taxes. I hope I don’t need to describe the benefits of those victories. They ought to be obvious to everyone by now.
Lastly, there have been some reports that Newt shouldn’t get all the credit. Really? Then perhaps we marginalize the accomplishments of Washington, Roosevelt, Kennedy and ….wait for it… Reagan.
Do we really want to go down the road with that kind of adolescent sophistry and parsing of what happened?
Newt is the guy who thought of these big things, proposed them and shepherded their implementation?
Newt has once again identified what is important to us now, at this time and described how we can get there with our representative majorities. He has done it before and I declare Newt Gingrich was then and is Now a leader.
We should elect Newt Gingrich to the Presidency of the United States