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Million signatures in WI indicate voter turnout in recalls
Wisconsin Reporter ^ | 1-18-12 | Kirsten Adshead

Posted on 01/20/2012 2:08:08 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic

MADISON — One million signatures suggest a lot of support to recall Gov. Scott Walker.

But will 1 million names translate into a lot of votes?

A Wisconsin Reporter analysis of the 2011 recalls indicates the answer is “yes,” albeit for both sides in this latest spate of recalls — those who hope to oust Walker, Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch and four GOP state senators, and those who hope to defeat the recall efforts.

By the numbers

In seven of the nine Senate recall elections last summer, the number of people who voted for the challenger exceeded the number of people who signed recall petitions.

All seven of those senators, though, survived their recall elections.

“We saw record turnouts in most of those recalls,” University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientist Charles Franklin said. “It was not just Democrats and pro-recall people that turned out. It was Republicans as well.”

United Wisconsin, the liberal political action committee leading efforts to recall Walker and other Republicans, presented the Government Accountability Board, or GAB, with a reported 1 million-plus signatures to recall the governor Tuesday and another estimated 845,000 for Kleefisch. Tens of thousands more signatures combined on the petitions targeted the senators.

Recall organizers had 60 days to collect a number of signatures from an elected official’s district that equals 25 percent of the vote in the previous gubernatorial election in that district.

Recall organizers needed to collect 540,208 to recall Walker, and the same for Kleefisch.

One million signatures to recall Walker are almost twice the necessary total, and the Kleefisch estimate of 845,000 is 56 percent higher than the minimum needed.

“You’re talking about a very significant part of the population,” said Joshua Spivak, an expert on recalls and a senior fellow at Wagner College in New York.

Walker would be only the third governor in the nation’s history to be recalled.

The last time a governor was recalled — Gray Davis in California, in 2003 — voter turnout was high, Spivak said.

With a million signatures collected in Wisconsin, Spivak said, “that bodes well for them to turn out people. Of course, Walker is going to also do a huge outreach.”

Wisconsin officials facing a recall threat are exempt from the standard campaign finance contribution limits until a recall election officially has been called.

In the second half of 2011, Walker collected $5 million, and has spent heavily on campaign ads.

Power to the people

Tom Kusumack, though, said he doesn’t need a campaign ad to be persuaded to keep Walker in office.

Kusumack, a 74-year-old St. Germain retiree, called attempts to recall Walker “a joke.”

“I think those people are nuts,” he said. “(Walker) did what he said he was going to do. He balanced the budget. They’re mad their cash cow died on them.

“I always vote,” said Kusumack, who signed a petition to recall Democratic Sen. Jim Holperin, of Conover, last year and voted for Holperin’s challenger, Kim Simac. “It’s not any effort. It’s my privilege and my duty.”

John McKay, a 56-year-old retiree from Mequon, voted to recall Sen. Alberta Darling, R-River Hills, last summer.

This year, McKay intends to vote against Walker if a recall election is held.

“I had been a Walker supporter. I’ve voted Republican most of my life,” McKay said. “But I was unhappy with the way he handled things, you know, with the state employees.”

The outcome of any recall elections likely will be determined by who gets out to vote — Walker critics or Walker supporters.

But it’s difficult in January to predict the outcomes of elections unlikely to be held until late spring at the earliest.

Reaching independents

Tuesday marked the beginning of a what is expected to be a long review and challenge process.

The recall election will be scheduled six weeks after the GAB validates the petition signatures, but any number of legal challenges could delay the process.

If a primary election is necessary to determine Democratic challengers to Walker or the other officials, the general election would be pushed back even further.

That means months will have passed between when people sign a recall petition and when they’ll be asked to go to the polls.

Franklin, who starts running a monthly opinion poll for Marquette University this week, said he doesn’t think much will happen in the intervening months to change people’s minds, at least on Walker.

Polls indicate that almost everyone in Wisconsin has formed an opinion on the governor, Franklin said. For much of the past year, polls have shown a divided Wisconsin, with Walker supporters and opponents running nearly neck and neck.

Franklin said there is room for maneuvering with independents, slightly more of whom tend to dislike Walker than like him, according to polls.

“I think those independents become kind of ground zero,” Franklin said, adding that Walker’s campaign ads already seem aimed at assuring independents that the changes he has pushed, notably the collective bargaining bill, were necessary and put Wisconsin on firmer financial ground.

Franklin also said he expects voter turnout to be high in the recall elections.

In 2010, when Walker beat Democrat Tom Barrett, more than 2.1 million Wisconsinites voted.

In 2008, more than 2.9 million Wisconsinites voted in the presidential race, with Barack Obama winning the state with about 1.7 million votes.

“The big mystery is, ‘Just how big can turnout be?’” Franklin asked. “How close can it come to presidential level turnout?”


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: recall; turnout; walker

1 posted on 01/20/2012 2:08:17 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
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To: afraidfortherepublic; Hunton Peck; Diana in Wisconsin; TaMoDee; P from Sheb; Shady; DonkeyBonker; ..

Wisconsin Election Turnout Estimate Ping

If you want to be on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list, just FRee Mail me.


2 posted on 01/20/2012 2:10:54 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Recall him if you want but don’t expect the rest of the country to bail you out when you go broke!


3 posted on 01/20/2012 2:11:03 AM PST by ari-freedom (If SOPA passes, we will lose our Free Republic.)
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To: ari-freedom

I certainly hope that barb wasn’t directed at me! I’m working as hard as I can to keep Scott in office. LOL


4 posted on 01/20/2012 2:13:54 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
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To: afraidfortherepublic

I am so sick of these unions and liberals that insist on recounts, recalls and new elections until they get the result they want.


5 posted on 01/20/2012 2:15:30 AM PST by Semper Vigilantis (Want to stop illegals and lower unemployment? Shut off the welfare faucet.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

I’m sorry. You’re from Wisconsin and I want you to prosper, fight back and WIN!

It’s just that after all this time with Obama, people should have known by now that it’s ridiculous to even think about liberal policies and they are still going for them. Before Obama, it was a nice story to believe in. But to keep pushing for liberalism even now after anyone can see it’s a failure?


6 posted on 01/20/2012 2:17:13 AM PST by ari-freedom (If SOPA passes, we will lose our Free Republic.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

BTTT.


7 posted on 01/20/2012 2:17:42 AM PST by OddLane (If Lionel Hutz and Guy Smiley had a lovechild together, his name would be "Mitt Romney." -KAJ)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

1 million signatures reflects massive fraud,

Donald Duck, Mickey Mouse, ....


8 posted on 01/20/2012 2:18:32 AM PST by 2111USMC (Not a hard man to track. Leaves dead men wherever he goes.)
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To: Semper Vigilantis

Me too. I’m sick of their temper tantrums too.


9 posted on 01/20/2012 2:18:32 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
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To: Semper Vigilantis
I am so sick of these unions and liberals that insist on recounts, recalls and new elections until they get the result they want.

First Three Rules in the Liberal Handbook:

  1. If it feels good, do it.
  2. Cheat, Lie, Steal to get the results you want.
  3. If you don't get the results you want, change the rules...even in midstream.

10 posted on 01/20/2012 2:20:58 AM PST by Bloody Sam Roberts ("The price of freedom is willingness to do sudden battle anywhere, anytime..." - Robert A. Heinlein)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

How many Mickey Mice can vote?


11 posted on 01/20/2012 2:21:21 AM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Sometimes progressives find their scripture in the penumbra of sacred bathroom stall writings (Tzar))
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To: Bloody Sam Roberts

If a tenth of Republicans were like Gingrich... the GOP would be doing the same thing right back to the Rats except of course in an honest way.


12 posted on 01/20/2012 2:22:51 AM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Sometimes progressives find their scripture in the penumbra of sacred bathroom stall writings (Tzar))
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To: afraidfortherepublic

A majority of one vote and the recall is successful?


13 posted on 01/20/2012 2:23:44 AM PST by listenhillary (Look your representatives in the eye and ask if they intend to pay off the debt. They will look away)
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To: listenhillary

Yep! And, unless the margin is large, the Dems will recount until they get what they want.


14 posted on 01/20/2012 2:29:08 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
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To: afraidfortherepublic

All he has to do is win - again. Will that shut-up the union thugs? No.


15 posted on 01/20/2012 2:36:18 AM PST by Libloather (The epitome of civility.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

You know most of the signatures are fake.


16 posted on 01/20/2012 2:38:06 AM PST by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: afraidfortherepublic
But will 1 million names translate into a lot of votes?

The unions did overkill on purpose to intimidate. Half those signatures are bogus. Under Wisconsin law anyone can sign any name like Micky Mouse and multiple times. All signatures are accepted and none will go through verification process .... for this recall process. With enough money and personnel they could have collected 10 million signatures

17 posted on 01/20/2012 2:47:40 AM PST by dennisw (A nation of sheep breeds a government of Democrat wolves!)
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To: freekitty

exactly!


18 posted on 01/20/2012 2:48:44 AM PST by dennisw (A nation of sheep breeds a government of Democrat wolves!)
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To: freekitty

Rush mentioned one guy bragging that he’d signed over eighty times. I suppose he’s planning on voting that many times?


19 posted on 01/20/2012 2:49:28 AM PST by Big Giant Head (Two years no AV, no viruses, computer runs great!)
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To: Big Giant Head

Can we get the death penalty implemented for intentional vote fraud? Or those convicted of vote fraud automatically forfeit any future medicare medicaid and SS payments with no appeal?

Just kidding, kind of.


20 posted on 01/20/2012 2:58:51 AM PST by listenhillary (Look your representatives in the eye and ask if they intend to pay off the debt. They will look away)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Why don’t they just have an election every month?


21 posted on 01/20/2012 3:12:32 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. Burke)
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To: Big Giant Head

Yep and he will probably use a lot of dead people to help him.


22 posted on 01/20/2012 3:26:57 AM PST by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: freekitty

There needs to be some kind of serious repercussion for vote fraud. It’s gotten out of hand.

BUT, a big shout-out to Algore for bringing NATIONAL ATTENTION to the vote fraud process! Thanks Al! You’ve been a big help, you stupid oaf.


23 posted on 01/20/2012 3:35:24 AM PST by Big Giant Head (Two years no AV, no viruses, computer runs great!)
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To: dennisw

Exactly correct, and I’m disappointed it took 17 posts to get to that. I bet it it more like 3/4ths of the signatures would be determined to be invalid if there were any sort of verification process.


24 posted on 01/20/2012 4:02:17 AM PST by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: 2111USMC
1 million signatures reflects massive fraud.

Yep...let's look at the numbers:
2010 population of WI - 5,686,986
% over 18 - 76.4% = 4,344,857

1 million "individual" signatures collected = 1 out of every 4 signed the petition in 60 days - I DON'T THINK SO ! !

25 posted on 01/20/2012 4:16:15 AM PST by Mopp4
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To: Mopp4

We, the people should be able to have a look at these signatures...put them on display in Madison...


26 posted on 01/20/2012 4:24:15 AM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: Semper Vigilantis

Liberals and unions have their roots in communism and they will keep on until they get the results they want. All Public unions should be disbanded and never again allowed to organize against the taxpayers that pay their salaries.

Public unions create a conflict of interest and should be outlawed.


27 posted on 01/20/2012 4:34:38 AM PST by swampfox101
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To: who knows what evil?
We, the people should be able to have a look at these signatures...put them on display in Madison..

Damn straight ! The ACLU is trying to block a searchable database but yeah, put them on display somewhere !

28 posted on 01/20/2012 4:38:23 AM PST by Mopp4
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To: FreedomPoster

thanks... I heard all that on Rush but anyone probably would have learned the same if they tuned in Hannity or Mark Levine


29 posted on 01/20/2012 4:59:35 AM PST by dennisw (A nation of sheep breeds a government of Democrat wolves!)
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To: ari-freedom

“Recall him if you want but don’t expect the rest of the country to bail you out when you go broke!”

Why? Of course they will get bailed out...what would you or any of us do to stop it? Vote??? Oh yeah, that means something...we can vote for change!!! Yahoo! The battle line is Walker...we either defend him or we simply once again back away from the fight...our lives are so precious that we will not risk anything to stop the tyranny that is overwhelming our nation. So, why make hollow gestures???


30 posted on 01/20/2012 5:01:08 AM PST by Wpin ("I Have Sworn Upon the Altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny...")
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To: 2111USMC
1 million signatures reflects massive fraud,

Donald Duck, Mickey Mouse, ....


And Obama went to Disney World to thank them!
31 posted on 01/20/2012 5:47:42 AM PST by Thorliveshere
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To: afraidfortherepublic

““I had been a Walker supporter. I’ve voted Republican most of my life,” McKay said. “But I was unhappy with the way he handled things, you know, with the state employees.”

Don’t you just love lying rats?

I support President Bush, but....

I voted for Reagan, but....

This McKay character is probably an SEIU sow who votes the communist party every election and will reluctantly vote for obuma because his brain-dead union bosses told him to.


32 posted on 01/20/2012 6:25:31 AM PST by sergeantdave
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To: sergeantdave

I thought the same when I read about McKay.


33 posted on 01/20/2012 6:28:17 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
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To: sergeantdave

Maybe a search of FEC donation records would show if this clown is really a Republican or another lying ‘Rat.


34 posted on 01/20/2012 6:31:06 AM PST by exit82 (Democrats are the enemies of freedom. We have ideas-the Dems only have ideology.)
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To: sergeantdave
John McKay, a 56-year-old retiree from Mequon, voted to recall Sen. Alberta Darling, R-River Hills, last summer.

This year, McKay intends to vote against Walker if a recall election is held.

“I had been a Walker supporter. I’ve voted Republican most of my life,” McKay said. “But I was unhappy with the way he handled things, you know, with the state employees.”

Which of these things is not like the other? /s

35 posted on 01/20/2012 6:33:34 AM PST by exit82 (Democrats are the enemies of freedom. We have ideas-the Dems only have ideology.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

It cuts both ways we should start recall drives on democrats.


36 posted on 01/20/2012 6:38:17 AM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: sergeantdave
The most controversial act of Walker was to break the public union's hold on non-salary-related bargaining positions. The unions could bargain on salaries but not on fringe benefits. The unions went wacko over this, and tried to make it seem like their "rights" were violated. Excessive public union retirement benefits helped put the state in a deep hole, three and one-half billion dollars, which we've climbed out of thanks to Walker.

If the people of Wisconsin are stupid enough, and there are plenty of stupid people here, to vote out Walker, then this state is hopeless. If this McKay guy is upset because we're now in the black after a decade of being in the red mostly thanks to previous Dem gov. Jim Doyle, he's no conservative Republican, and he's no one I want to associate with.

37 posted on 01/20/2012 6:57:51 AM PST by driftless2
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To: 2111USMC
1 million signatures reflects massive fraud,

I love it when a leftwing/libnut asks me to sign a petition.

I always sign their petition: A. Dead Person

38 posted on 01/20/2012 7:04:23 AM PST by moovova (Report my sarcastic, fear-mongering, hate-filled lies to www.AttackWatch.com by clicking HERE.)
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To: moovova

I always sign their petition: A. Dead Person

Be sure to include a vaild address so the signature counts ...


39 posted on 01/20/2012 7:42:42 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
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To: Mopp4

That’s a good tidbit there. It follows that an even higher percentage (40%?) of all non-Republicans supposedly signed. We’ll see how many get flagged as bogus for any of a dozen or so reasons by http://www.verifytherecall.com over the next few weeks.


40 posted on 01/20/2012 7:45:38 AM PST by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: 2111USMC

But you don’t understand, the union bosses said that they remember talking to all the dead voters who told them to sign their names to whatever way it assists them best, honest.


41 posted on 01/20/2012 12:43:50 PM PST by chiefqc
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