Posted on 01/30/2012 9:52:32 AM PST by dead
... who gets the would-be VP nod depends greatly on who is the nominee. As Newt Gingrich's odds of winning have spiked and dissipated twice in the last two months, the market for vice presidential candidates has reacted...
If Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, my model estimates that he is 25 percent likely to pick Chris Christie as his running mate, a popular moderate governor from New Jersey who himself flirted with running for president before strongly endorsing Romney. (This in spite of the fact that you'd have two Northeasterners on the ticket.) The market puts Christie's overall chance of being the VP of any Republican nominee at only 14 percent, but because his odds tend to rise in tandem with Romney's, my model boosts his chances to 25 percent in the scenario where Romney is the nominee. Rubio is a close second to be Romney's right-hand man at 22 percent. Rubio's VP odds actually drop whenever Romney's go up (they are anti-correlated), but because Rubio's such a likely overall pick, he's still the second-most likely Romney pairing. Rubio so far hasn't endorsed a presidential candidate and has repeatedly said he's not interested in the VP job. No other candidate rises above single digits as Mitt's pick for a-heartbeat-away.
If Gingrich wins the Republican primary, he's most likely, at 30 percent, to pair up with Rubio. Christie virtually falls out of the running for VP at below 5 percent if Gingrich emerges the primary winner. Over the past 90 days, when Gingrich rose in the presidential market, Rubio tended to rise too and Christie tended to fall in the vice presidential market...
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Rubio would face the NBC issue.
Gingrich/West mo’ better.
Gingrich-Rubio?i don’t think so.
Gingrich/Perry
Romney-Christie? REALLY?
Count me out....TWICE! No way I want to set up RINO x 16 years...
I’ll take ZERO for 4 if that is the choice.
Gingrich-Cain
Good men, and it would drive the MSM & race-baiters crazy.
That would be incredibly stupid. It would make Romney stupider than McCain, which is saying something. I mean, EVEN MC CAIN knew he needed something to fire up the GOP base, and he/they chose brilliantly. Would Romney really be so stupid as to pick someone perceived as moderate on “red-meat” issues to GOPers? I know a lot of folks here hate him, but would he really be that tone-deaf, does he really not know that it’s the conservative base that’s ambivalent (at best) about him?
Agatha Christie! Yeah!
Oh, she’s dead.
“Gingrich/West mo’ better.”
I like, also.
I will vote for the nominee, but I sure don’t favor anyone running with Christie. And if anyone runs with him, it should be Newt.
Romney running with a Northeast moderate is the last thing that should be done.
Whoever runs should beg Rubio to join them.
“That would be incredibly stupid.”
Milt is both stupid and arrogant, the worst combination to be.
I suspect he would proudly pick Christie.
I agree, Newt/ Perry
I like that a lot. With all respect, Marco Rubio is not yet experienced, and hasn’t been vetted. You gotta love the guy after hearing him speak, but hold on - why does that sound familiar?? He’s young, let him serve out his Senate term and then maybe.
Perry would bring stability, executive experience, strong financial support from a very large and influential state, a successful economic growth template, and is a solid Conservative. He’s not an elitist, has a great military record, and is not a Washington insider.
Can I write in Nixon???? Seriously, this is the best Republicans have to offer???
It might finally settle it that a U.S. citizen at birth is a natural born citizen - as opposed to a “natural-IZED” citizen - and that these are the only two types of citizenship (other than those citizens of colonial America that were “grandfathered” in) the Constitution mentions or envisions.
Successful presidential tickets require idealogical as well as geographical balance to make it over the finish line.
These pairings do neither. Gingrich/Christie or Romney/Rubio are far more likely pairings.
Rubio is too smart to be wasted as a VP pick.
She'll still vote Democrat.
Is Rubio qualified in accordance with Article II, Section 1 of the US Constitution?
If not, oh well...
That’s the ticket I will be hopeful for.
Yes, by a handful of birthers stomping their feet while the rest of the country ignores them.
That’s right.
Chestur Arthur, Obama and Rubio all had at least one parent who was not a citzen at the time of their birth..
Anyone who is saying that Obama can’t run for President must admit that neither can Rubio.
You can’t pick and choose.
Strange model.
Two Northeastern moderates? No.
I think Rubio’s a Romney guy like pretty much the rest of the Florida Republican establishment. Don’t think he’d accept the nom from Gingrich.
Newt would probably pick Ron Paul as his running mate.
Yes, Marco Rubio is qualified in accordance with Article II, Section 1 of the US Constitution.
Is Rubio qualified in accordance with made-up birther nonsense? Who cares...
The main reason for would be to serve as his pit bull. Christie really is great at clearly, bluntly, and logically putting the media and other liberals in their place. Romney's an oily douche and has no such ability. He just sound whiney and apologetic whenever anybody challenges him on an issue.
Also, the NYTimes and such would briefly praise the selection, which is always paramount in the minds of Romney/McCain types.
Of course, all the muted approval of the media will disappear like a twenty on a three card monte box, once the general election gets underway.
Romney/Christie will be beaten like a Singaporean gum chewer.
Obama/Romney would be unstoppable.
Gingrich/ANY solid fearless rational Midwestern or Southern conservative.
Flopney/Crisco ..LOL! Let the establishment try to shove that down our throats.
Please link me to your proof.
Christie or Rubio? Yech!
Gingrich/West!!!
My pick too!
The interesting thing here is that Christie is temperamentally more like GINGRICH in his combative public persona than anyone else Romney could pick or would be likely to pick as Veep choice.
Don’t wanna be, uh, “cynical”, but if that will be the choice
it will be done with the full knowledge of both Romney and Christie that their perceived images would be of use and highly exploitable to one another. Romney gets to be associated with someone who is a relentless,confront the unions, let’s -get- it- done type (which runs totally counter to the Romney image),
and Christie is sanitized and softened by the much more
“moderate” Romney, who is now and forever seen as the more “electable” choice between him and Gingrich.
It would be an unusual choice for Veep, since Veeps are usually a little safer at the outset, though it’s always been clear that Veep now could mean President 4 years from now.
I can’t see Gingrich’s choice being Rubio, which would be seen as a naked act of pandering,regardless of how sincerely
the choice might be made.
Rubio is on record in the pages of Sunday’s (2 days ago) NYTimes Magazine
as saying he’s not interested in the job and wants to serve Florida.
My choice for Gingrich would be Perry, who is as principled as Gingrich, but fits nicely into the “safer” template because of his more genial image, and , let’s face it, his lack of ability as a debater/communicator compared to Gingrich.
No thanks, these brain dead articles are getting old.
A good combo. But it won't happen.
Often the reason to pick a running mate is to draw in more voters. McCain was so far to the left that he had to pick a conservative. Other than that example, the VP slot is typically filled to bring in the votes from an important state. Since Texas is a sure thing for the GOP, I wouldn't expect Perry. A secondary consideration is age...a younger candidate will still be a viable choice in 8 years.
Gingrich/Santorum (PA) or Gingrich/Kasich (OH) or even Gingrich/West (FL) would be more likely.
I fail to see how Christie is going to help Romney’s campaign. It would be a finger in the eye of conservatives, and Romney doesn’t have enough money to beat Obama without the conservative base. Rubio, however, is an excellent choice for Newt.
So they can be caught up in the Obama collapse?
That would be damned stupid. Rubio is not eligible to hold the office.
“Agatha Christie! Yeah!
Oh, she’s dead.”
No, Julie Christie.
Oh wait, she’s British ... like Obama.
If Romney wins the nomination, his pick for a running mate will not matter.... Obama will win, period.
As for Newt, I can’t say why, but I am uncomfortable with Rubio.
I like a Newt/West ticket. I am not sure that this would be a strong choice in terms of political advantage, but absent a better choice at this point in time, I like it. I couldn’t care less about how many Black votes that West might bring, because I consider 95% of them racist and dumber than a box of rocks. West is a good man, a real leader, a true patriot, a heroic man and a man with solid principles.
Having said that, I just want Newt to pick a conservative running mate that would enhance his chance of winning and help him turn this country around.
Gingrich - Rubio?
Really? I don’t see that one at all.
I think he’d pick Palin.
Please link me to your proof.
Obama has proven that Article II Section 1 is trumped by Affirmative Action.
Rubio is a minority therefore invoke the Obama rule.
But he is a Republican so maybe that's a double trump card.
But it is ironic that rubio means blonde in Spanish isn't it?
The Republican frenzy for Rubio shows how much they believe in affirmative action and identity politics.....and how unprincipled they really are.
Neither Christie nor Rubio are “natural born citizens” as required by the Constitution. Both parents were not citizens at the time of birth.
Let's see. Born in Miami? Check.
Over 35-years old? Check.
This whole "two citizen parent" nonsense is nothing more than a device birthers embraced to be a standard of eligibility that Obama could not possibly meet once the whole "born in Kenya" stupidity fell apart. Unfortunately for birthers, in their efforts to be consistent (and consistently wrong) they've been forced to apply their nonsense to good conservatives like Senator Rubio. Fortunately for Marco Rubio, nobody outside of the birther conspiracy circus is buying it.
Rubio would not be a good choice as his eligiblity is in question and the lawsuits would start flying. We don’t need that kind of chaos in the GOP this election year. Just put Allen West on the ticket and move on.
agreed
I agree Gingerich/Santorum is a good possibility.
I agree that Romney/Christie makes no sense. Two Northeastern liberal governors? No balance in geography, ideology, or experience.
Romney should remember that, although McCain lost, his pick of Palin was a major boost to the ticket (and McCain/Palin were leading the polls at the start of the general election campaign). Romney should pick a solid conservative who hails from another region and who has Washington experience (a Pence or DeMint type). Exception: He could go with Santorum, fitting two of the three criteria and helping to deliver Pennsylvania, a big swing state.
Unfortunately, these same criteria of balance suggest that, if Gingrich wins, he’ll be pressured to pick a RINO. As you say, Gingrich/Christie would be a more likely ticket than Gingrich/Rubio.
I think Perry will fit Newt...just right!! Both are visionary and doers.
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