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To: CharlesWayneCT
I think I’ve explained the pro-Santorum argument sufficiently, and I doubt I’m going to convince any Gingrich supporters to stop attacking Santorum and slandering him as some are here.

Charles, you haven't explained the pro-Santorum argument at all. You spun out a string of head-scratching justifications for doing so, but that's about it.

You went from preferring to ignore the candidates' records, and simply have them fight it out based upon who can deliver the best campaign promises, to telling me that it would be more logical for the supporters of the candidate in second place to turn their votes over to the guy in third place.

Excuse me, but that whole post sounds like something you wrote after your third glass of wine.

178 posted on 02/01/2012 7:36:15 AM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Windflier
The poll in Missouri demonstrates logically a way that, if you want to beat Romney, having the 1st-place guy drop out strengthens your chance of doing so.

PPP Poll Missouri

In Missouri, the 3-way matchup has Gingrich ahead of Romney by 6%, good but within the margin of error. Santorum is behind Gingrich by 4%. (Gingrich 30%, Santorum 26%, Romney 24%). Conventional wisdom says if Santorum drops out, Gingrich runs away with the election.

But they polled head-to-head matchups:

Head-to head, Gingrich would defeat Romney in the state, 43-42, but Santorum would, 50-37.

Got that -- Gingrich ahead of Santorum by 4, and ROmney by 6. But without Santorum, Gingrich is essentially tied with Romney, losing 5% of his lead. If Gingrich drops out, Santorum runs away with the election, winning by 13%, and getting a clear majority.

So, if the poll accurately reflects what would happen in the election, GIngrich, the front-runner, should drop out so that Santorum can get an easy win over Romney, and win a majority of the votes.

That is what I call a "logical argument" for why it might be better for those of us who want to be Romney if the guy polling better drops out -- because the guy polling better has high negatives and a ceiling below 50%, while the guy polling 2nd is widely liked and has a much higher ceiling of support.

The situation in Ohio polling is similar, although Gingrich slightly improves there if Santorum is gone:

The primary is a three-way race between Gingrich (26%), Romney (25%), and Santorum (22%), with Paul at 11%. Gingrich would top Romney, 42-39, but Santorum would, 45-38.
3-way, Santorum is LAST, Gingrich is +1 on Romney. Without Santorum, GIngrich is +3, which is still a razor thin margin. But even though Santorum is 3rd in the 3-way, if the "front-runner" Gingrich drops out, Santorum wins easily by 7%, a better margin than Gingrich gets in either 3-way or head-to-head.

Now, these are just polls. But they are two polls that show, logically, HOW it could be that the "front-runner" dropping out is better than the guy running behind him dropping out.

If you want to scratch your head, go ahead. It seems "counter-intuitive", until you remember that there isn't a block of "conservative" voters who can interchangeably be assigned to whatever conservatives are running. Gingrich has long-standing negatives and has a ceiling. I know you understand that, because you know that Romney has a ceiling right now as well, and the principle is identical.

It isn't just important that you have enthusiastic supporters. You need to avoid committed opponents. If 60% of the electorate dislikes Gingrich and won't vote for Gingrich, the only way Gingrich can win is a 3-way race, so that Santorum can take the votes of the voters that won't vote for Gingrich, but would rather not vote for Romney. And it turns out, that if Gingrich voters are much more in the "anybody but Romney" category than Santorum voters are, Gingrich dropping out throws enough votes to Santorum to make it easier to beat Romney.

This is a logical argument, which doesn't mean it reflects how things would actually work. It is how things COULD work. It is also possible that Santorum would get plastered with negative ads and end up with high negatives as well. I'm not telling Gingrich to drop out, I'm saying that there is a logical reason NOT to ask Santorum to quit.

183 posted on 02/01/2012 8:56:31 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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