Just say no to a Massachusetts Moderate
Posted on 02/01/2012 6:47:09 AM PST by montag813
I just heard Newt’s speech after Florida and I have come to realize that Newt is going to win the GOP nomination and be the next president.
I understand that most people think that Romney is most likely, but I do not agree. First, Romney has never shown the ability to get the majority of the votes in any primary. Second, Romney’s win in Florida took place with no actual consideration of Romney’s record or ideas — Romney’s entire campaign was based on the idea that Romney is the only person who can beat Obama. His whole campaign in FL was on attacking Newt. Third, the voting numbers showed Gingrich did very well in the Fl. panhandle, which votes like southern states. This suggests that Gingrich will likely sweep the South.
Gingrich’s problems in FL were easy to fix. Gingrich got off message. Gingrich froze in the face of shock and awe from Romney’s attacks. Finally, Gingrich faced the one state that only Romney had a strong campaign organization in. The fact of the matter is that Romney had to compete in Iowa with almost everyone and lost. Romney had to compete in NH with Huntsman and won. Romney had to compete in SC with Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich and lost. FL was always too big for anyone but Romney to have a strong organization and ad campaign in. Gingrich had the momentum, but Romney had a uniquely large organization advantage for FL.
In future states Romney will continue to have an organization advantage, especially through Super Tuesday, but as the primary goes on, Romney’s advantage will drop as (1) later states even out since Romney is running a campaign like Clinton did in 2008 and his organization is strongest early, (2) as the race goes on voters will develop more solid opinions and organization will mater less, and (3) Gingrich will emerge as the alternative to Romney and will be better organized as people realize he is the only hope for conservatives in this race.
In terms of campaign focus, Gingrich is now developing a new contract with America and I expect he will use that to stay on message and contrast himself with Romney. Gingrich held a vote on all items he promised to and did what he could to pass them for the original contract. That was a promise kept for him. He will have credibility for his new contract and this will contrast him with Romney who cannot be trusted and is not conservative.
In terms of Romney’s shock and awe attacks, it is hard to see Romney get much worse. Romney’s negatives have already shot up, and it is almost impossible to think of what worse things Romney can attack Gingrich for. Romney already used several lines of attack have had blow back, and if he picked those as ‘go,’ it is hard to think he has anything left to fire with. The Romney smear campaign will need to let-up at some time or Romney will completely implode. How long can a campaign be 99.9% negative?
What it comes down to is that Gingrich is a real candidate, and Romney is a pretender. Gingrich has real conservative ideas to fix the problems we are in. Romney has talking points.
I just heard Newt’s speech after Florida and I have come to realize that Newt is going to win the GOP nomination and be the next president.
_________________________________________
That was a Reagan at the 1976 convention speech...
when the GOP realized they had just nominated the wrong man...
But the modern GOP werent listening last night
They’ll listen by Super Tuesday...
Santorum needs to drop out and endorse Newt.
Newt needs to be able to get women voters.
And, Newt needs to get some cash...fast.
Newt is done. He is showing himself to be a major drama queen.
Hope this is true.
You know the Obama campaign is rubbing their hands together to start these ads.
Did Mittens call and give Newt a courtesy call when he won SC ?
I dont remember seeing it posted anywhere or hearing about it.
Just say no to a Massachusetts Moderate
I appreciate that you support Obama completely destroying NASA and any hope of future space missions, but at least Newt makes proposals. Romney hasn't put forth an idea in the 5 years he has been running.
I'm sick of all of them. Don't we have at least one competent Republican in this country that can run a campaign on actual issues? This is a major disappointment.
The more America sees of Newton Leroy Gingrich the fewer votes he will receive. By November he would be lucky to get 35% of the votes in the General Election.
Any more of this whiny bullcrap like the “kosher meals” call and he’ll be lucky to get 15% of the vote from here out. And I’ve been a Newt supporter here since last summer.
Bold prediction - a lot has to go right for it to come true. A bit like saying the Carolina Panthers are going to win the 2013 Super Bowl. It could happen, Cam Newton has a lot of potential, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.
How could Gingrich be surprised by the Romney attacks when they had already worked in Iowa?
Gingrich got off message.
I sat there in utter disbelief as Santorum dismantled Romney on Romneycare as Gingrich stood there like a potted planted. Gingrich should have been carrying out that attack. Terrible lack of preparation for a debate with a plastic man who speaks in platitudes.
I would rather lose with Gingrich than “win” with Romney.
I agree.
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