Skip to comments.Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
Posted on 02/01/2012 10:09:13 AM PST by Para-Ord.45
Gallup released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers yesterday, and the results should have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue very worried. If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215.
Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico.
The race hasn`t even started. Once the dominant media eviscerates Romney we`ll revisit these numbers.
This is merely a periscope of voter opinion - today.
It is simply too early to have any significance.
I think Obama is likely to lose unless his approval numbers rise, and that won’t happen unless there is marked improvement in the economy.
Incumbent elections are usually about the incumbent, provided that the challenger isn’t wholly unfit for office.
That is why it is important that Romney NOT be the nominee.
What would you really expect with a Halfrican Muslim who’s been to a Christian church (while in office - don’t count Reverend Wright’s White Hatred Church) maybe three times?
This man hates our country; he wants to destroy it so he can remake it in his own image. So his beard wife can take luxious foreign vacations with all her gal-pals and garb herself in the latest designer circus tents from Vogue, EnFacion or whatever. So he can rule you and control your lives and show you how you as a white Christian are evil and need to be punished.
Just wait until Obama saturates the airwaves with the “I don’t care about poor people” ads against Romney.
Romney ran ads 65:1 against Newt to win FL. He won’t be able to o that against Obama.
Looks good so far but still close enough for the ‘rats to steal.
I’d give Zero Oregon and PA. Even Colorado.
He still loses big.
Obama wins nothing south of Maryland.
If Myth is the nominee, 0bama will win by a margin that will make ‘08 look like ‘00.
If Romney does win (assuming he is the nominee, I hope he wins by such a slim margin that the establishment KNOWS it can't afford to dismiss conservatives.
Gallup left out the other 7 states...:-)
I’m surprised about Oregon - that would be a shock. I’m not surprised about New Hampshire - anyone who lives here knows that Obama is widely reviled everywhere except for the college towns and in the gummint union capital of Concord.
I question his winning Wisconsin.
Fellow NH wingnut.
Soros has already prepared us with his public announcement that Romney would be the same as purple lipped prince...that except for the crowd around them, they would be the same. He has given up on zero...look for something to happen that takes zero out of the race and Hillary will be on the pedestal.
All 45%+ going to Bambi, plus OR, NM, NV, CO and 1 from NE.
The rest going to GOP, including VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, and NH, all which went Obama in 2008.
I just don't see Oregon going GOP, despite the poll numbers. New Mexico or Nevada could. They would put the GOP over the top.
way too early to tell not to mention optimistic
still would be real nice if it came to pass though wouldnt it :)
Obama starting at a disadvantage is good. Gas prices are predicted to go up this year—more than last year. That won’t help him.
Pennsylvania turning would be huge.
Let’s not discount Wisconsin becoming Republican. Governor Scott Walker is hated by the left, but is popular enough to have the advantage in the polls now.
There are several on here that could end up in the GOP column, NM, NV, IA, PA. And a couple that could stay with Obama, but does not look likely, OH, FL.
Barring an economic upheaval between now and November if Romney is the republican nominee we get beat by at least the same numbers as McStain did or worse.
I don’t see anything Romney can do to energize the conservative base at this point. My Dad is a life long Republican since he started voting in the Goldwater 64 election. He is so put out with the party he is planning on sitting this one out at this point. In 2008 he voted because of Palin on the ticket, this time he is not buying the conservative VP con job.
I personally don’t see Romney even picking a conservative for the VP slot. He and the rest of the establishment has shown such utter contempt for the conservatives in the base all through the primaries, so why change now.
Personally, I find the notion that a congenital idiot, arguably the worst president in the nation’s history, and a model of Marxist corruption admired by none other than Fidel Castro, might get 215 electoral votes intensely worrisome and an indicator that the nation is very badly scr*wed.
Soros and the power brokers on the far left has already given up on Barry, and concider a victory for them a bonus,
a government with Mitt in the WH is only a bump in the slide to destroy the old America that is only a memory to most Americans now, and the cuts and sacrifases that is neccesary to restore fiscal sanety is going to diselusion so many voters that they have agood chance to win next time and continue their war on America, one step closer to sosialist world domination, probably working with the muslim
brotherhood or whomever for a while until they come to blows, and the outcome of that is not to clear to me right now, but it will be ugly. It is clear to me that they are working together now, using political corectness as one of the tools, weather they are aware of the co-operation is not clear, but many are surely not. I se a turbulent future for us, and we better be prepared. load and lock
There’s no way BO carries NC again. So, that’s a 15 vote swing right there.
The problem is not Obama, it's an electorate that would vote for him.
The country can survive a president like BO. 10's of millions who would vote for a man like that, though? Not so much.
Thought I saw the $$ was about 4 to 1. If 65:1 ads is right, I want to know Mitt’s ad buyer because he got a great bulk deal.
That’s what was being reported today. Newt ran 200 ads. Romney 13,000.
Here you go. Google it:
Obama’s approval numbers today are one thing but they’re in a vaccuum. They are his approval numbers if the question asked is “Do you approve of President Obama”
On Election Day, if Romney is the nominee, the question asked is “Would you rather have Obama or Romney”. That is a VERY different question.
I think Obama will blow out Romney. Not the 00 election at all....
“Get ready for a party ruled by the likes of Meghan McCain and Charlie Crist...”
Wow, every creepy rino/gop-e you can think of will be the authority on Republicanism.
Watch as they defend OromneyCare,gay marriage,gays in the military,abortion rights,moderate Supreme court appointees...
Nevada also generally votes to the right of Ohio.
If Romney is the nominee Obama re-election is assured and it would a bigger victory than the one had against McCain in 2008.
This dumb site keeps on bashing Romney and then turns around and begs for contributions.Maybe when you get off Romney’s case.
Voters may be disappointed with Obama, thus the 40 states with the sub-50% numbers.
But they are also an obedient bunch, and when told to vote for Obama because Republicans are evil, hate black people and don’t worry about poor people, they’ll do as directed.
Doesn’t mean much. Run the poll with it being Rommeny vs. Obama.
Yep. Let’s not forget who ($$$) we’re up against.
So for months now you’ve been behind Newt, up until mid January. Then 2 weeks go by and now you’re insulting Newt and singing Mitt’s praises?
Mrs. Prince of Space
We can all stay home if Romney is nominated and he will still win.
This looks good at the moment. But none of this is certain so we need to get behind our nominee soon and get on to the business of beating BHO.
Well, there was not too much analysis on my part. I just looked at the approval rates of the states, and had no idea one way or the other on that Nebraska district, so kept in line with the 2008 results.
But if there is a large enough minority who would do as many Freepers appear willing to do if Romney is the nominee, then your assumptions may not be correct either. I don't like Romney, he's my third or fourth choice of the remaining four, but I will vote for him if he is the nominee. I DO NOT want four more years of the socialist in chief.
Bubbles McCain would make a good mascot for the hybrid Republicrat Party, being a cross of elephant and ass.
Obama will run a negative campaign, and as it is already He will win by making everyone else’s approval numbers go even lower than his.
Theses numbers matter not.
Don't be shy, tell us how you really feel. You don't need to water it down on our account; we can take it straight! ;)
Not begging for anything, mittwitt. Those who appreciate FR contribute freely to keep it running smoothly and to keep it a more or less liberal-free zone.
Hmm, doesn’t sound like FR is you sort of website. You have an ozonian smell about you. What was your previous name at FR? Can you proudly proclaim, ‘And I’m a Mormon’?
ZOT! I knew that was coming! :)