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Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com ^ | February 1, 2012 | Conn Carroll

Posted on 02/01/2012 10:09:13 AM PST by Para-Ord.45

Gallup released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers yesterday, and the results should have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue very worried. If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215.

Gallup ads:

Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; bho2012; bhojobapproval; elections; sourcetitlenoturl
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Too early to tell.

The race hasn`t even started. Once the dominant media eviscerates Romney we`ll revisit these numbers.

1 posted on 02/01/2012 10:09:14 AM PST by Para-Ord.45
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To: Para-Ord.45

This is merely a periscope of voter opinion - today.

It is simply too early to have any significance.


2 posted on 02/01/2012 10:14:25 AM PST by RexBeach
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To: Para-Ord.45

3 posted on 02/01/2012 10:16:36 AM PST by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else (Maybe Tim Thomas))
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To: Para-Ord.45

I think Obama is likely to lose unless his approval numbers rise, and that won’t happen unless there is marked improvement in the economy.

Incumbent elections are usually about the incumbent, provided that the challenger isn’t wholly unfit for office.

That is why it is important that Romney NOT be the nominee.


4 posted on 02/01/2012 10:18:53 AM PST by Retired Greyhound (.)
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To: Para-Ord.45

What would you really expect with a Halfrican Muslim who’s been to a Christian church (while in office - don’t count Reverend Wright’s White Hatred Church) maybe three times?

This man hates our country; he wants to destroy it so he can remake it in his own image. So his beard wife can take luxious foreign vacations with all her gal-pals and garb herself in the latest designer circus tents from Vogue, EnFacion or whatever. So he can rule you and control your lives and show you how you as a white Christian are evil and need to be punished.


5 posted on 02/01/2012 10:19:12 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: All

b


6 posted on 02/01/2012 10:21:03 AM PST by Maverick68
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To: Para-Ord.45

Just wait until Obama saturates the airwaves with the “I don’t care about poor people” ads against Romney.

Romney ran ads 65:1 against Newt to win FL. He won’t be able to o that against Obama.


7 posted on 02/01/2012 10:21:27 AM PST by KansasGirl
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To: Para-Ord.45

Looks good so far but still close enough for the ‘rats to steal.


8 posted on 02/01/2012 10:22:44 AM PST by Chi-townChief
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To: Para-Ord.45

I’d give Zero Oregon and PA. Even Colorado.

He still loses big.

Obama wins nothing south of Maryland.


9 posted on 02/01/2012 10:23:27 AM PST by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else (Maybe Tim Thomas))
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To: Para-Ord.45

If Myth is the nominee, 0bama will win by a margin that will make ‘08 look like ‘00.


10 posted on 02/01/2012 10:25:20 AM PST by Lou Budvis (Not Romney. Not Now. Not in November.)
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To: nhwingut
That's why I call Barbara Streisand on this. I live in Oregon and this state is bat crap crazy and will NEVER throw their Messiah overboard. You can take that to the bank!
11 posted on 02/01/2012 10:31:29 AM PST by Anti-Hillary (No Jesus, No Peace! Know Jesus, Know Peace!)
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To: Para-Ord.45
I almost cringe at the thought of Romney winning a Reagan/Mondale size victory as much as I do Obama winning one. It would confirm everything the Republican Establishment thinks. I.E. They don't need conservatives. They only need to appeal to "the center" to win. Moderate is the only way to go. And they would be so firmly back in charge of the party that any candidate to the right of Romney would be stamped down for the next decade. Get ready for a party ruled by the likes of Meghan McCain and Charlie Crist...

If Romney does win (assuming he is the nominee, I hope he wins by such a slim margin that the establishment KNOWS it can't afford to dismiss conservatives.

12 posted on 02/01/2012 10:31:38 AM PST by apillar
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To: Gaffer
LOL!...love writing style, keep it up! :-D

13 posted on 02/01/2012 10:32:54 AM PST by skinkinthegrass (Kill the terrorists, Protect all the borders, Laugh @ the (remaining) Liberals :^)
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To: Para-Ord.45

Gallup left out the other 7 states...:-)


14 posted on 02/01/2012 10:37:18 AM PST by stockpirate (Romney, Ann Coulter & our ruling republican SOCIALISTelites, are Big Government socialists,)
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To: nhwingut

I’m surprised about Oregon - that would be a shock. I’m not surprised about New Hampshire - anyone who lives here knows that Obama is widely reviled everywhere except for the college towns and in the gummint union capital of Concord.


15 posted on 02/01/2012 10:38:25 AM PST by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: nhwingut

I question his winning Wisconsin.

Fellow NH wingnut.


16 posted on 02/01/2012 10:42:07 AM PST by AlmaKing
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To: Para-Ord.45

Soros has already prepared us with his public announcement that Romney would be the same as purple lipped prince...that except for the crowd around them, they would be the same. He has given up on zero...look for something to happen that takes zero out of the race and Hillary will be on the pedestal.


17 posted on 02/01/2012 10:42:42 AM PST by IrishPennant (Did Adam and Eve have belly-buttons? I'm jes' askin'...)
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To: Para-Ord.45
I actually came up with a plausible 269-269 tie scenario.

All 45%+ going to Bambi, plus OR, NM, NV, CO and 1 from NE.

The rest going to GOP, including VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, and NH, all which went Obama in 2008.

I just don't see Oregon going GOP, despite the poll numbers. New Mexico or Nevada could. They would put the GOP over the top.

18 posted on 02/01/2012 10:47:29 AM PST by Tatze (I reject your reality and substitute my own!)
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To: Para-Ord.45

way too early to tell not to mention optimistic
still would be real nice if it came to pass though wouldnt it :)


19 posted on 02/01/2012 10:55:06 AM PST by DM1
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To: Para-Ord.45

Obama starting at a disadvantage is good. Gas prices are predicted to go up this year—more than last year. That won’t help him.


20 posted on 02/01/2012 11:03:02 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: nhwingut

Pennsylvania turning would be huge.

Let’s not discount Wisconsin becoming Republican. Governor Scott Walker is hated by the left, but is popular enough to have the advantage in the polls now.


21 posted on 02/01/2012 11:04:34 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: Tatze
Here, I mapped out my 269-269 tie scenario.

Photobucket

There are several on here that could end up in the GOP column, NM, NV, IA, PA. And a couple that could stay with Obama, but does not look likely, OH, FL.

22 posted on 02/01/2012 11:27:05 AM PST by Tatze (I reject your reality and substitute my own!)
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To: Chi-townChief

Barring an economic upheaval between now and November if Romney is the republican nominee we get beat by at least the same numbers as McStain did or worse.

I don’t see anything Romney can do to energize the conservative base at this point. My Dad is a life long Republican since he started voting in the Goldwater 64 election. He is so put out with the party he is planning on sitting this one out at this point. In 2008 he voted because of Palin on the ticket, this time he is not buying the conservative VP con job.

I personally don’t see Romney even picking a conservative for the VP slot. He and the rest of the establishment has shown such utter contempt for the conservatives in the base all through the primaries, so why change now.


23 posted on 02/01/2012 11:45:21 AM PST by sarge83
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To: Para-Ord.45

Personally, I find the notion that a congenital idiot, arguably the worst president in the nation’s history, and a model of Marxist corruption admired by none other than Fidel Castro, might get 215 electoral votes intensely worrisome and an indicator that the nation is very badly scr*wed.


24 posted on 02/01/2012 11:45:30 AM PST by Jack Hammer
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To: Para-Ord.45

Soros and the power brokers on the far left has already given up on Barry, and concider a victory for them a bonus,
a government with Mitt in the WH is only a bump in the slide to destroy the old America that is only a memory to most Americans now, and the cuts and sacrifases that is neccesary to restore fiscal sanety is going to diselusion so many voters that they have agood chance to win next time and continue their war on America, one step closer to sosialist world domination, probably working with the muslim
brotherhood or whomever for a while until they come to blows, and the outcome of that is not to clear to me right now, but it will be ugly. It is clear to me that they are working together now, using political corectness as one of the tools, weather they are aware of the co-operation is not clear, but many are surely not. I se a turbulent future for us, and we better be prepared. load and lock


25 posted on 02/01/2012 12:05:11 PM PST by munin
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To: Para-Ord.45

There’s no way BO carries NC again. So, that’s a 15 vote swing right there.


26 posted on 02/01/2012 12:26:36 PM PST by wbill
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To: Jack Hammer
Personally, I find the notion that a congenital idiot..... might get 215 electoral votes

Exactly.

The problem is not Obama, it's an electorate that would vote for him.

The country can survive a president like BO. 10's of millions who would vote for a man like that, though? Not so much.

27 posted on 02/01/2012 12:32:37 PM PST by wbill
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To: KansasGirl

Thought I saw the $$ was about 4 to 1. If 65:1 ads is right, I want to know Mitt’s ad buyer because he got a great bulk deal.


28 posted on 02/01/2012 12:50:21 PM PST by sick1 (Don't fear the freeper)
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To: sick1

That’s what was being reported today. Newt ran 200 ads. Romney 13,000.


29 posted on 02/01/2012 12:52:52 PM PST by KansasGirl
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To: sick1

Here you go. Google it:

http://www.google.com/search?q=newt+200+ads+Romney+13,000&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari


30 posted on 02/01/2012 12:55:38 PM PST by KansasGirl
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To: Para-Ord.45

31 posted on 02/01/2012 12:58:38 PM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: Lou Budvis

Obama’s approval numbers today are one thing but they’re in a vaccuum. They are his approval numbers if the question asked is “Do you approve of President Obama”

On Election Day, if Romney is the nominee, the question asked is “Would you rather have Obama or Romney”. That is a VERY different question.

I think Obama will blow out Romney. Not the 00 election at all....


32 posted on 02/01/2012 1:09:48 PM PST by Personal Responsibility (Obama 2012: Dozens of MSNBC viewers can't be wrong!)
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To: apillar

“Get ready for a party ruled by the likes of Meghan McCain and Charlie Crist...”

Wow, every creepy rino/gop-e you can think of will be the authority on Republicanism.
Watch as they defend OromneyCare,gay marriage,gays in the military,abortion rights,moderate Supreme court appointees...


33 posted on 02/01/2012 1:11:38 PM PST by Leep (It's gonna be a Newt day!)
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To: Tatze
There is no way Obozo can carry the Omaha district in Nebraska and lose Ohio. Not even with Warren Buffet.

Nevada also generally votes to the right of Ohio.

34 posted on 02/01/2012 1:13:08 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Para-Ord.45

If Romney is the nominee Obama re-election is assured and it would a bigger victory than the one had against McCain in 2008.


35 posted on 02/01/2012 1:15:28 PM PST by jveritas (God bless our brave troops)
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To: KansasGirl

This dumb site keeps on bashing Romney and then turns around and begs for contributions.Maybe when you get off Romney’s case.


36 posted on 02/01/2012 1:21:32 PM PST by 2007 Crusader (2007 Crusader)
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To: Para-Ord.45

Meaningless.

Voters may be disappointed with Obama, thus the 40 states with the sub-50% numbers.

But they are also an obedient bunch, and when told to vote for Obama because Republicans are evil, hate black people and don’t worry about poor people, they’ll do as directed.


37 posted on 02/01/2012 1:30:01 PM PST by ScottinVA (Liberal logic: 0bamacare mandate is acceptable... but voter IDs are unconstitutional.Oh, let me gues)
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To: Para-Ord.45

Doesn’t mean much. Run the poll with it being Rommeny vs. Obama.


38 posted on 02/01/2012 1:35:42 PM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: KansasGirl

Yep. Let’s not forget who ($$$) we’re up against.


39 posted on 02/01/2012 1:47:49 PM PST by GVnana (Newt 2012 - He Speaks for Us)
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To: 2007 Crusader

So for months now you’ve been behind Newt, up until mid January. Then 2 weeks go by and now you’re insulting Newt and singing Mitt’s praises?

Pretty curious.

Mrs. Prince of Space


40 posted on 02/01/2012 2:15:47 PM PST by Prince of Space (Obama cares a lot about the poor. In fact, he wants to make more of them.)
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To: Para-Ord.45
Cool.

We can all stay home if Romney is nominated and he will still win.

41 posted on 02/01/2012 2:17:49 PM PST by Glenn (iamtheresistance.org)
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To: nhwingut

This looks good at the moment. But none of this is certain so we need to get behind our nominee soon and get on to the business of beating BHO.


42 posted on 02/01/2012 2:27:43 PM PST by citizen (The Dims will all unite for Zero. We must soon unite behind our challenger and back him to victory!)
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To: Vigilanteman
There is no way Obozo can carry the Omaha district in Nebraska and lose Ohio. Not even with Warren Buffet.

Nevada also generally votes to the right of Ohio.

Well, there was not too much analysis on my part. I just looked at the approval rates of the states, and had no idea one way or the other on that Nebraska district, so kept in line with the 2008 results.

But if there is a large enough minority who would do as many Freepers appear willing to do if Romney is the nominee, then your assumptions may not be correct either. I don't like Romney, he's my third or fourth choice of the remaining four, but I will vote for him if he is the nominee. I DO NOT want four more years of the socialist in chief.

43 posted on 02/01/2012 2:56:15 PM PST by Tatze (I reject your reality and substitute my own!)
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To: apillar
Get ready for a party ruled by the likes of Meghan McCain

Bubbles McCain would make a good mascot for the hybrid Republicrat Party, being a cross of elephant and ass.

44 posted on 02/01/2012 2:57:54 PM PST by Lady Lucky (I like to fire people. I don't care about the poor.)
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To: Para-Ord.45

Obama will run a negative campaign, and as it is already He will win by making everyone else’s approval numbers go even lower than his.

Theses numbers matter not.


45 posted on 02/01/2012 3:22:57 PM PST by Monorprise
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To: Para-Ord.45

Click to Donate to Newt Gingrich

46 posted on 02/01/2012 3:28:42 PM PST by hoosiermama (Stand with God: Newt, and Sarah will be right next to you.)
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To: Gaffer
"This man hates our country; he wants to destroy it so he can remake it in his own image. So his beard wife can take luxious foreign vacations with all her gal-pals and garb herself in the latest designer circus tents from Vogue, EnFacion or whatever. So he can rule you and control your lives and show you how you as a white Christian are evil and need to be punished."

Don't be shy, tell us how you really feel. You don't need to water it down on our account; we can take it straight! ;)

/s

47 posted on 02/01/2012 3:38:01 PM PST by Flotsam_Jetsome (If not you, who? If not now, when?)
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To: 2007 Crusader

Not begging for anything, mittwitt. Those who appreciate FR contribute freely to keep it running smoothly and to keep it a more or less liberal-free zone.

troll-b-gone zot


48 posted on 02/01/2012 3:41:06 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Rebellion is not just brewing, rebellion is here!!)
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To: 2007 Crusader

Hmm, doesn’t sound like FR is you sort of website. You have an ozonian smell about you. What was your previous name at FR? Can you proudly proclaim, ‘And I’m a Mormon’?


49 posted on 02/01/2012 3:45:35 PM PST by MHGinTN (Being deceived can be cured.)
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To: MHGinTN; 2007 Crusader

ZOT! I knew that was coming! :)


50 posted on 02/01/2012 4:02:34 PM PST by Flotsam_Jetsome (If not you, who? If not now, when?)
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