Skip to comments.Nevada Mormons for Mitt (faithful voting habits, overwhelming loyalty should help him to victory)
Posted on 02/02/2012 6:59:39 AM PST by SeekAndFind
In the Nevada caucus, Mitt Romney has a crucial advantage: his Mormon faith.
Just 7.5 percent of Silver State residents are Mormon, but when it comes to Saturdays caucuses, Mormons will likely constitute a significant chunk of voters. In 2008, about a quarter of Republican caucus voters were Mormon.
Not only will they vote for Romney, says Nevada GOP strategist Robert Uithoven of the states Mormons, but they always turn out. No matter what election, no matter whos on the ballot, they are as reliable voters as you can find in Nevada.
Typically political strategists in this state try to zero in on where the LDS vote is going to go, because they are such reliable voters, Uithoven adds, comparing it with how the senior vote is tracked closely in many states because seniors are such reliable voters.
For Romney, Mormons are a demographic group he can almost entirely capture. Last cycle, according to exit polls, 94 percent of Mormon GOP voters backed Romney. Silver State politicos anticipate that Romney will likely perform about as well this year with Mormon voters.
Most of them are going to see this as an opportunity to get an LDS [member] as the nominee, if not the president, says David Damore, a political-science professor at University of NevadaLas Vegas. And thats going to outweigh anything else.
For Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum, Nevada thus proves a uniquely difficult state to win. Its theoretically possible to lose the Mormon vote and win the state, but it would require finding a significant bloc of support among the three quarters of voters that arent Mormon. On Monday, Gingrich was blunt about the difficulties of winning the state, saying, Nevadas tricky because of the Mormon influence, but we have a shot at it.
There is one campaign, however, that is actively fighting to wrest away some of the Mormon vote from Romney: Ron Pauls. Last cycle, Paul placed second in Nevada (albeit a distant second, trailing Romney by 37 points), and this year, hes trying to improve on his previous showing. The campaign has both national and Nevada-based coalitions of Mormon supporters, and is working to make the case to Mormons that Pauls candidacy, not Romneys, is closer to their beliefs.
Ron Paul can really, in some sense more than Mitt Romney, appeal to the Mormon vote in that hes a strict constitutionalist, and supporting the Constitution is very much part of the Mormon faith, argues Connor Boyack, a Utah Mormon and a prominent member of Pauls national LDS coalition. Though Mitt Romney is a member of our faith, his record and his advocacy and what he would do as president conflicts with a lot of things that many Mormons consider important and believe as a fundamental part of their faith. One example, according to Boyack, is the conflict between Romneys hawkish foreign-policy views and a Mormon scripture quotation that urges one to renounce war and proclaim peace.
But he concedes that Pauls platform also alienates some Mormons, who dont like, say, his stance on drug policy.
Overall, Nevada insiders are dubious that Paul will be able to win even double-digit support among Mormons, much less take any significant portion of the vote. I certainly think Ron Paul will get some Mormons to vote for him, but not in any kind of consequential numbers, says Uithoven.
And Romneys Mormon support isnt all that is buoying him in the state. Nevada Republican strategist Pete Ernaut calls him the prohibitive favorite, pointing to Romneys significant ground presence. Romney far and away has the bigger organization and more thorough ground game, because hes been working here for the better part of four years, Ernaut says. And I dont think theres any comparison between his operation and the others.
Even Boyack concedes that it can be tough to persuade Mormons to look at a candidate besides Romney.
I do know that many people base their support for Mitt Romney almost entirely on the fact that hes a Mormon, he says, and it would be great to have a member of our faith in the White House, just as black people did with Obama.
Katrina Trinko is an NRO reporter.
The Church of Latter-Day Saints has always had an image problem and the best way to get legitimacy - or at least get out into the public view is to elect one of their own. They are a highly organized and motivated bunch, in my experience.
I will be attending my first caucus this Saturday in order to counter this phenomena. I encourage all Nevada Republicans to do the same. Spending a Saturday mornning with the political types is about the last thing I really want to do. . . but it is something I have to do. Come join me. I’ll bring some TEA to share.
Yet another group voting and splintering our nation in the name of their own selfish best interests and NOTHING more.
When will it ever end? We’re going to be 1,000 nations before it’s all over, all of them WEAK.
The lds-org denies that Jesus is the Creator,
that everything was created THROUGH Him, BY Him and FOR Him.
They deny Jesus created the angels and the universe out of nothing.
Identity politics is a dangerous gambit and many mormons will fall in lockstep as the 94% stat confirms.
I know a few mormons who are “independent” thinkers and disavow Romney as nothing more than a political whore so they are not voting for him under ANY circumstances.
I ask them to talk with and educate their fellow mormons who aren’t “independent” thinkers and considering a vote for Romney.
Romney being a Mormon is a STUPID reason to vote for him. He's a freakin' liberal, people! Look beyond his religion and focus on his record for crying out loud. Do you really want another liberal in the White House? Wake up!
As will I in northern Nevada!
I wonder if they use card check.
this is a crock theory - If mormons voted only for mormons or conservatives what is the story with the mayors of salt lake and the democrat in congress did they gerrymander a disctrict of nonmormon? Then in NV are they going to follow their senator Reid or the Pres candidate?
Question: Has Romney promised them to legalize polygamy in the United States?
via a backdoor of allowing homosexual based marriage, then by extension anything goes marriage becomes legal.
Glad to hear it suzy. I love the northern half of NV too. (especially the week before labor day. Shhh)
Or they could simply be telling you what they think you want to hear.
I understand, but then Romney would have rec’d 100% of the mormon vote in Utah, Idaho, Nevada and other locales where mormons are into identity politics.
I know these folks pretty well, we talk candidly.
If they’re fooling me, well, it could be viewed one of two ways; either they’re very, very good liars or I’m just gullible. ;^)