Skip to comments.Romney not so strong in MO, OH primaries
Posted on 02/05/2012 8:07:26 AM PST by TBBT
Raleigh, N.C. It looks like Mitt Romney is headed for a decisive victory in the Florida primary tonight, but beyond the Sunshine State, he has more work to do to wrap things up. Newt Gingrich still looks pretty strong in Missouri and Ohio, but the candidate with the greatest potential to challenge Romney, in the Midwest at least, is Rick Santorum. Santorum is by far the best liked of the four remaining candidates in these two states. And not only does he do well in the horseraces, but if the race is winnowed to him and Romney, he would fare significantly better than Gingrich would against the frontrunner. In Missouri, held a week from today, Santorum has a 63-21 favorability spread to Gingrichs 52-32, Romneys 46-36, and Pauls 28-57. On the actual primary ballot, for which Gingrich did not qualify, Santorum leads with 45% to Romneys 34% and Pauls 13%. In the caucus, in which Gingrich can compete, Santorum falls to second at 28% behind the former speakers 30% and ahead of Romneys 24% and Pauls 11%. Head-tohead, Gingrich would defeat Romney in the state, 43-42, but Santorum would, 50-37. That is because Santorums supporters only go for Gingrich by eight points over Romney, but Gingrichs vote for Santorum by 28 points.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
So what is Santorum's path to victory? Hovering overhead like a vulture until Newt implodes - hoping that there will be enough meat left on the carcass to make a difference?
In Florida, it can be argued that Santorum's presence did no harm. Looking at the raw numbers, Romney beat Newt and Santorum's totals combined. Plus, Florida is a winner take all state, so Newt would have had to win outright to get anything there. That was probably too much to expect in a purple state (just like Nevada). However, that's like looking at the problem in a vacuum, and not taking into account the momentum/perception effects a Santorum exit might have had.
Going forward though, Santorum's continued presences becomes more damaging. The rest of the contest up until April 1st are proportional delegates. Santorum will pick up delegates - delegates that will mostly be denied Newt making it harder for Newt to keep up in the delegate count race. A close second finish for Santorum in Ohio, for example, will exacerbate this - giving him a fair chunk of that states delegates.
If I thought Santorum had any chance at all - I would support his efforts to fight on. But I don't see any path to victory for Rick, and his continued presence seems only to serve as an advantage for Romney. I think Rick Perry understood the realities of the situation and that the outcome of this - in terms of the conservative cause and the need to defeat Obama - was more important than one man's personal ambitions. It's time for Santorum to step up to the plate and do the right thing.
Hold the line, there sure isn't anyone else to step up if we fail.
It is exactly for this reason that Santorum AND Newt should stay in. Proportional delegates give ensures Romney doesn’t get 50%+1 delegates.
Yes, and given his difference with Romney on abortion and can't understand why he remains in the race to do nothing except split conservative votes away from Newt.
If Santorum can’t gain any traction anywhere, don’t you think he’ll just give his delegates to Gingrich? Perry imploded and never recovered, although I was hoping things would work out better for him. Santorum has not imploded. This election year may be his only shot to become President because of the weak field, and I don’t blame him for not hanging it all up right now. It IS possible for Gingrich to implode also, but he is so well-known that all of his baggage has probably been aired. If there is something else, Team Obama is holding onto it. Santorum is not a perfect candidate, but I hope he can stay in for now. If Gingrich is to become the candidate, he needs to be able to handle the heat, because it will get ugly as we approach closer to November.
Pres. nominee is one with most delegates. Second place gets VP. Santorum and Newt alliance.
Missouri and Indiana both present “stop Mitt” opportunities because there will only be one conservative on the ballot in both states. (Newt in Indiana, Rick in Missouri).
Your analysis assumes Santorum wants Newt to win. I don’t think that is the case. Santorum is an establishment guy acting as a spoiler on behalf of the establishment candidate.
I’m going to hijack my vote in November. I am not going to vote in this election. If we have to hit rock bottom to get the country club set of the Repbulican Party to lose their grip and start listening to the the party base, then so bit it.
If we do reelect Obama and hit rock bottom, we will have you and your ilk to thank. throwing your vote away is one-half a vote for the traitor-in-chief.
Can voters there write in Newt?
Nope, and that is not a conservative view that you write. The conservative view is that those that create the problem are to blame.
The GOP establishment should have thought of the consequences of their actions when they tore into every other Republican candidate they thought had a chance of beating their anointed one.
The GOP establishment gave us every defeat conservatives have suffered when they chose to stand up for themselves instead of give any measure of support to the conservative wing of their party base.
Sorry, I'm not the traitor. I did not throw my vote away, the country club sect of the GOP discounted it, took it for granted and in the ultimate act of treason, they attacked it.
No write-ins in MO. Gingrich blew off the primary here as unimportant ... if Santorum wins the primary he will win the caucus as well.
True the country club, blue blooded GOP and the Lame stream media may be to blame for giving us a lousy nominee, but why should everyone have to suffer these next 4 years because of them. They would love BO to have another four years, but the country would go to hell in a hand basket. Allof what we have left is the better of two evils. Most of what we have left is the result of those that won’t get off their butts and help us nominate a conservative. This has gone on since the nomination of Goldwater (with the exception of Reagan).
You could add Virginia to that (even though Paul isn’t really a conservative—heee’s a heck of a lot better than Romney). -J.S.
Gingrich is banking on Texas’ winner-take-all delegates. However favorite son Ron Paul will split the anti-Romney vote and Romney has a good chance of pulling off a win in Texas. Rick Perry’s endorsement of Gingrich won’t do him squat since Perry is down in the Texas poll.
Gingrich will have a hard time explaining to Texas voters why (1) he supported tax and cap, (2) supports endless guest worker plan a/k/a “amnesty” and (3) wrote a paper supporting Obamacare.
It increasingly looks dismal for Gingrich although he has the right spunk, he strikes many as the wrong messenger. Santorum remains for only one reason. There is a 50/50 chance that Gingrich will self-implode. His presser last night is being panned all over the MSM and the blogs as being incoherent. Money will soon dry up for him, without a win on Tuesday his momentum will have all but stalled, and the electoral path to securing a significant amount of delegates looks extraordinarily bleak especially if he continues to trail Romney by over 20-points among female voters.
Tell the RNC there is no way in HELL you will vote for Romney. Lets tie up their phone lines.
Office of the Chairman
Faxing will get their attention as they will have to pick up each one rather than just give you the Yada Yada over the phone.
GODSPEED NEWT GINGRICH.
It is exactly for this reason that Santorum AND Newt should stay in. Proportional delegates give ensures Romney doesnt get 50%+1 delegates.
There are also 491 unpledged delegates over and above the pledged delegates of 1795.
You state this, after posting this?
Head-to head, Gingrich would defeat Romney in the state, 43-42, but Santorum would, 50-37. That is because Santorums supporters only go for Gingrich by eight points over Romney, but Gingrichs vote for Santorum by 28 points.
So if Santorum dropped out, Gingrich statistically ties and 'might' defeat Romney, but if Gingrich drops out, Santorum decisively defeats Romney by double digits.
Santorum's voters split between Gingrich and Romney with a slight tilt to Gingrich. Santorum dropping out doesn't help Newt a great deal at all.
Saying Santorum should drop out to help Newt is really a bogus argument.
What effect does telling the RNC you won’t support Romney have? Absolutely nothing and a worthless waste of time for both you and them.
However, insisting that they enforce their own rules in Florida on the delegate issue is fair game as they actually have some control over that.
But in Minnesota, polls suggest any one of the four candidates could take first place, with former senator Rick Santorum currently in the lead. [ed note: Santorum=29%,Romney=27%; Gingrich=22%, Paul=19%By the "Gingrich Supporter Rule", Gingrich, at 3rd place, should drop out and endorse Santorum in Minnesota, to insure a victory over Romney.
In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.Santorum isn't in first. But he's within 14% of Romney, which interestingly is 4% closer than the 18% Gingrich is drawing. Again, invoking "Gingrich Supporter Math", Gingrich should drop out and endorse Santorum, and miraculously his entire 18% would move to Santorum, who would then win this caucus and stop Romney's momentum....
Of course, if both are in, and it's proportional, the two of them together could end up with more delegates than Romney, just like it's possible the three candidates will end up with more delegates than Romney in Nevada (Of course, at a convention, Paul isn't likely to give his delegates to GIngrich or Santorum, so I discount his value for anything other than getting a brokered convention).
Meanwhile, in the national head-to-head vs Obama, Santorum continues to climb, Newt still trailing:
Santorum vs Obama: RCP Average, Obama +9 (was +9.3 two days ago).
Gingrich vs Obama: RCP Average, Obama +11.8
The problem now is that we can't tell whether GIngrich is having a temporary problem, or will continue to slide. On the positive side, the southern states are a strong place for him. On the negative, his press conference in Nevada isn't endearing him to anybody except his strong supporters, at a time he needs to reverse a trend of increasing negatives.
And we don't know whether Santorum is rising, or if he's just getting the cast-offs from Newt, and will drop when he gets attacked like Newt was.
Since we are doing proportional stuff now, it's helping to have both in, especially Santorum who is drawing voters who would otherwise hold their nose and vote for Romney because they just don't like Newt (not my fault, not your fault, it just is what it is).
Sanitorium already has all the support he is going to get in Minn. It doesn’t matter who drops out. Its the Polish catholics that are for him, and he already has all of them.
If he wins, do you think Gingrich will give a press conference and say that it doesn’t count because Minnesota is “very heavily irish catholic state”?