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Posted on 02/05/2012 8:07:26 AM PST by TBBT
It is exactly for this reason that Santorum AND Newt should stay in. Proportional delegates give ensures Romney doesn’t get 50%+1 delegates.
There are also 491 unpledged delegates over and above the pledged delegates of 1795.
You state this, after posting this?
Head-to head, Gingrich would defeat Romney in the state, 43-42, but Santorum would, 50-37. That is because Santorum’s supporters only go for Gingrich by eight points over Romney, but Gingrich’s vote for Santorum by 28 points.
So if Santorum dropped out, Gingrich statistically ties and 'might' defeat Romney, but if Gingrich drops out, Santorum decisively defeats Romney by double digits.
Santorum's voters split between Gingrich and Romney with a slight tilt to Gingrich. Santorum dropping out doesn't help Newt a great deal at all.
Saying Santorum should drop out to help Newt is really a bogus argument.
What effect does telling the RNC you won’t support Romney have? Absolutely nothing and a worthless waste of time for both you and them.
However, insisting that they enforce their own rules in Florida on the delegate issue is fair game as they actually have some control over that.
But in Minnesota, polls suggest any one of the four candidates could take first place, with former senator Rick Santorum currently in the lead. [ed note: Santorum=29%,Romney=27%; Gingrich=22%, Paul=19%By the "Gingrich Supporter Rule", Gingrich, at 3rd place, should drop out and endorse Santorum in Minnesota, to insure a victory over Romney.
Santorum 2nd place in Colorado:
In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.Santorum isn't in first. But he's within 14% of Romney, which interestingly is 4% closer than the 18% Gingrich is drawing. Again, invoking "Gingrich Supporter Math", Gingrich should drop out and endorse Santorum, and miraculously his entire 18% would move to Santorum, who would then win this caucus and stop Romney's momentum....
Of course, if both are in, and it's proportional, the two of them together could end up with more delegates than Romney, just like it's possible the three candidates will end up with more delegates than Romney in Nevada (Of course, at a convention, Paul isn't likely to give his delegates to GIngrich or Santorum, so I discount his value for anything other than getting a brokered convention).
Meanwhile, in the national head-to-head vs Obama, Santorum continues to climb, Newt still trailing:
Santorum vs Obama: RCP Average, Obama +9 (was +9.3 two days ago).
Gingrich vs Obama: RCP Average, Obama +11.8
The problem now is that we can't tell whether GIngrich is having a temporary problem, or will continue to slide. On the positive side, the southern states are a strong place for him. On the negative, his press conference in Nevada isn't endearing him to anybody except his strong supporters, at a time he needs to reverse a trend of increasing negatives.
And we don't know whether Santorum is rising, or if he's just getting the cast-offs from Newt, and will drop when he gets attacked like Newt was.
Since we are doing proportional stuff now, it's helping to have both in, especially Santorum who is drawing voters who would otherwise hold their nose and vote for Romney because they just don't like Newt (not my fault, not your fault, it just is what it is).
Sanitorium already has all the support he is going to get in Minn. It doesn’t matter who drops out. Its the Polish catholics that are for him, and he already has all of them.
If he wins, do you think Gingrich will give a press conference and say that it doesn’t count because Minnesota is “very heavily irish catholic state”?
Not likely!
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