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To: TBBT
Perhaps you missed these polls, if you think that Santorum is only doing good in two states.

Minnesota Caucus a toss-ip:

But in Minnesota, polls suggest any one of the four candidates could take first place, with former senator Rick Santorum currently in the lead. [ed note: Santorum=29%,Romney=27%; Gingrich=22%, Paul=19%
By the "Gingrich Supporter Rule", Gingrich, at 3rd place, should drop out and endorse Santorum in Minnesota, to insure a victory over Romney.

Santorum 2nd place in Colorado:

In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.
Santorum isn't in first. But he's within 14% of Romney, which interestingly is 4% closer than the 18% Gingrich is drawing. Again, invoking "Gingrich Supporter Math", Gingrich should drop out and endorse Santorum, and miraculously his entire 18% would move to Santorum, who would then win this caucus and stop Romney's momentum....

Of course, if both are in, and it's proportional, the two of them together could end up with more delegates than Romney, just like it's possible the three candidates will end up with more delegates than Romney in Nevada (Of course, at a convention, Paul isn't likely to give his delegates to GIngrich or Santorum, so I discount his value for anything other than getting a brokered convention).

Meanwhile, in the national head-to-head vs Obama, Santorum continues to climb, Newt still trailing:
Santorum vs Obama: RCP Average, Obama +9 (was +9.3 two days ago).

Gingrich vs Obama: RCP Average, Obama +11.8

The problem now is that we can't tell whether GIngrich is having a temporary problem, or will continue to slide. On the positive side, the southern states are a strong place for him. On the negative, his press conference in Nevada isn't endearing him to anybody except his strong supporters, at a time he needs to reverse a trend of increasing negatives.

And we don't know whether Santorum is rising, or if he's just getting the cast-offs from Newt, and will drop when he gets attacked like Newt was.

Since we are doing proportional stuff now, it's helping to have both in, especially Santorum who is drawing voters who would otherwise hold their nose and vote for Romney because they just don't like Newt (not my fault, not your fault, it just is what it is).

25 posted on 02/05/2012 3:16:26 PM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: CharlesWayneCT

Sanitorium already has all the support he is going to get in Minn. It doesn’t matter who drops out. Its the Polish catholics that are for him, and he already has all of them.


26 posted on 02/05/2012 3:57:10 PM PST by editor-surveyor (No Federal Sales Tax - No Way!)
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