Skip to comments.Could this be Santorumís big day?
Posted on 02/07/2012 12:09:54 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Today, for the first time this cycle, multiple states hold their Republican presidential nomination contests on one day, two caucuses (Colorado and Minnesota) and one primary (Missouri). They all have two things in common. First, none of them are binding, so no delegates will be formally assigned from the vote. Second, they all represent Rick Santorum’s best shot at changing the trajectory of this race and positioning himself as the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. One final series of snap polls from PPP shows Santorum with a double-digit lead in Missouri, and nearly as much of a lead in Minnesota:
Rick Santorum could be headed for a big day in today’s contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He’s at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.
Missouri is the big test. Gingrich chose not to make the ballot in Missouri (a more deliberate choice than the failure of Gingrich and Santorum in Virginia), so this is the dry run of Santorum vs Romney and Paul. If he does win big in the Show Me State, it gives Santorum an argument for his strength as a conservative candidate more likely to beat Romney in future contests than Gingrich. A win in Minnesota, where Romney won in 2008, would bolster that argument even more, but a low turnout is expected in Minnesota. That makes predictions through polling difficult, although a nine-point lead in a widely-split field is better than no lead at all.
For Gingrich, the key is to beat Santorum in the two states in which he’s competing. The results in Missouri are not terribly relevant to Gingrich, and expect his campaign to spin a Santorum win as an indictment of Romney rather than a boost for Santorum, and they wouldn’t be entirely wrong, either. Falling to third in either would raise questions about his momentum; falling out of second place in both would be a huge problem for perception of the Gingrich campaign. In Minnesota, Gingrich is in a virtual tie for second place with Romney and Ron Paul, with just four points separating the three candidates. In Colorado, Gingrich is six points back of Santorum for second place in the PPP poll, but leads slightly as the second-place choice over Santorum, 25/23.
Gingrich could score a big PR coup by pushing Romney into third place in Minnesota, or he could end up in third or even fourth place himself. He’s also tied for second in the second-place choice question with Romney at 20% in Minnesota, with Santorum leading with 25% and Paul far behind at 10%. Based on those numbers, it looks like Santorum has a chance to win it, and Romney and Gingrich will be fighting it out for second place. In that case, look for the better organization to carry the day, and that won’t be good news for Gingrich. In Colorado, there is no chance of pushing Romney into third place, but Gingrich could beat Santorum for second. He has a slight edge in electability over Santorum in both states (+7 in CO, +6 in MN), and in Colorado that might be enough to get last-minute deciders to break his way and push him into second.
On the other hand, last-minute deciders might base their decision on instinct rather than stats, and that would not be good news for Gingrich. In both states, Gingrich is barely above water on favorability (+8 in CO, +7 in MN), though, while Santorum leads the field substantially (+52 in CO, +57 in MN), with Romney in second (+28 in CO, +7 in MN, tied with Gingrich). That combined with the other disadvantages of the Gingrich campaign, plus the interesting strategic decision over the last two days to focus on Santorum, may have undercut Gingrich’s stature enough to send him into an across-the-board retreat. If so, Gingrich had either hope for a miracle in the February 22nd debate. If Santorum comes in third in both Minnesota and Colorado while winning Missouri, it won’t be as dire, but he would lose the argument over his ability to outperform Gingrich in the center of the country, and the Not-Romney stalemate would continue. And you know who that helps ….
Tricky Rick Santorum is as much a conservative as any pro-life Democrat.
He’s a damned liar, just like Romeny. Neither is a conservative.
This could be as big as when Huckabee “surged” again after winning Iowa and then flailing. Huck came back to win WV, TN, and Arkansas and then went on to be the nominee!
I’m not a fan of any of the guys currently running, but the best thing Santorum could do is drop out and throw his weight behind Newt. And the sooner the better.
I woke up this morning and realized I’m getting tired of this whole election. I’m on overload. I’ll just wait until whoever is left comes to my state and vote accordingly. If romney wins the nomination in the end, I’ll go to the polls and write in my own name for president. If any of the others do, I’ll select that person.
RE: Hes a damned liar, just like Romeny. Neither is a conservative.
So, are there any conservatives left in this race?
RE: but the best thing Santorum could do is drop out and throw his weight behind Newt. And the sooner the better.
Funny, but there are some who believe that the best thing for Newt to do is to drop out and throw his support behind Rick.
See here for instance:
Actually, Rick should drop out and endorse Buddy Roemer!
Santorum is a social conservative, but he is from a Catholic union background, so that should explain some of his apparent votes. He now says that those votes were a reflection of his supporters in PA (blue collar Catholic union workers) and that as president, he would represent the WHOLE country, not a narrow base in PA.
Santorum isn’t perfect, but he’s as close as we’re going to get and at least he never supported an individual mandate to buy insurance. Getting rid of Obama and Obamacare is job ONE and replacing it with a weak substitute just won’t do.
—Funny, but there are some who believe that the best thing for Newt to do is to drop out and throw his support behind Rick.—
Yeah, I know. There are also some that think Obama was the best thing that happened to the country. Opinions clearly vary. That doesn’t make all parties right - or wrong.
Where is the ‘American’ candidate?
Since we’re talking about Santorum’s Italian-Catholic blue collar, union background (as well as every other candidates’ backgrounds)...
Where is the white Anglo-Germanic, non-Mormon Protestant who’s traditionalist family never had any union ties, but instead, are tied directly back to the landowning republican farmer/tradesman/professionals who lead this nation from the beginning? These folks STILL constitute a plurality of America, where are they to fight the creeping doom of Marxism once again poised to ruin what their ancestors worked so hard to create?
Newt Mcpherson comes close, but his baggage concerns me.
Yes, there certainly is a conservative.
Newt Gingrich allied himself with Ronald Reagan to build the Reagan Coalition, the Religious Right, and the Republican majority (together the Reagan Revolution) which directly led the downfall of the Soviet Union, the Contract with America, government reforms, less government, tax cuts, a balanced budget, and the great, long-standing Reagan economy.
Newt Gingrich is pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment and loves America and understands its citizens. As a historian, he thoroughly knows the U.S. Constitution and our nation’s history.
He has a record of actions taken that actually mattered, and can identify what is most important to the country. He can develop plans to overcome challenges, articulate the merits of overcoming those challengea and why the plans will work.
He’s been accused of being a turncoat, particularly when seated next to Pelosi on that sofa. He later said one doesn’t surrender the field of ideas to political adversaries, lest they dominate the issue and amits he could have handled it better. But on reflection, Newt is an attention whore seeking relevancy for his ideas. He admits to having made mistakes, unlike Romney and Santorum, and he has expressed regret for some of those decisions. No one’s perfect. Yet he has an extraordinary ability to get things done and that matters enormously.
Newt gave us the Republican majority, the Contract with America and completed 2/3rds of his agenda while in office. He resigned when so many of his colleagues rebelled against his proposed budget cutting a billion dollars out of it; they saw their gravy train leaving Congress, and wanted Gingrich out!
He now has a new plan for America and with what is hopefully to become a Congressional Super Majority and a Senate Majority, if not Super Majority, I believe he will absolutely accomplish his agenda.
Never, never, never support a liar!
A great letter-to-the-editor in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette from a CATHOLIC NUN:
Sen. Rick Santorum and his wife have taught their children a powerful lesson on civic responsibility by refusing to pay any tuition money to the Penn Hills School District for their children who attended the Pennsylvania Cyber Charter School ... Released from that payment on a technicality shows that even an upstanding, moral gentleman like Sen. Santorum teaches his children the following lessons:
1) Take advantage of the system whenever you can.
2) The little guy pays while the rich and powerful guy gets away with it.
3) As a Catholic, you have no obligation to pay your share to the common good in spite of Catholic social doctrine.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Nothing beats a good old-fashioned butt-whooping from a nun!
Tricky Ricky is no conservative - he is a liar.
Yes, Santorum is not going to be the nominee and is only running interference for Romney.
I am laughing at you! You are so spoiled and jealous and just plain nasty. I laugh right in your face. You come to all the Santorum threads and just spread your ugly lies. If you don’t like Santorum then don’t vote for him like a ton of people are going to tonight. I hope Santorum wins just so I can throw it in your face forever. You might just be the most jealous FREEPER I ever saw.
Go ahead, throw away your vote.
Santorum can not run from his voting record or his past. He is as conservative as any pro-life Democrat and like one, definitely NOT a fiscal conservative.
Tricky Ricky the hypocrite is a liar.
We already have one in the White House and Free Republic is crawling with people like you, who’re doing their best to put another liar in office.
When you don’t like the truth in the message, shoot the messenger. Typical.
you have my vote!
-you have my vote!-
Thanks. BTW, “Cuban” is my middle name. You need to write in “Tasty C. Leaf”