Can Mitt Romney seal the deal with the Christian right?

Mitt Romney won an impressive 29-percentage point victory in Saturday's Nevada caucuses. For some analysts, the triumph suggested that Romney is well on his way to winning the nomination. For me, the win was expected and confirms my forecast about where the race is heading. Romney maintains his status as the favorite for the Republican nomination, but potential trouble lurks down the road.

Romney maintains a great funding and organizational advantage in comparison to his peers. If he senses any candidate (such as Newt Gingrich) might be a serious challenge, Romney can drown out his opponent with television advertising and establishment endorsements (as Elliott Abrams describes in the National Review). Romney's ability to turn a five-point deficit in Florida into a seven-point lead in three days, with an eventual 14.5-point win, shows what his campaign is capable of doing.

The outstanding issue for Romney, though, is that he has yet failed to break through in a state that doesn't favor him demographically. Think about the states where Romney has done well: New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada. Some are liberal, some are conservative, but they share one demographic feature: they have a below-average percentage of Republican primary (or caucus) voters who identify as born-again Christians or evangelicals. The two states, Iowa and South Carolina, in which Romney has fared poorly have an above-average percentage of Republican primary (or caucus) voters who so identify.

Graphically, the relationship between born-again Christian and evangelical and the Romney vote becomes quite clear. Romney's percentage of the vote as opposed to the proportion won by the conservative alternatives (by now, just Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum) tallies quite closely with the percentage of voters in a state's exit polls who say they are born-again Christian or evangelical.

...that’s 10-25% of the base. he’d have to make that up with independents...all boils down to another 4 for 0failure. which means... US debt will continue to climb and the dollar will continue to diminish. gold and other commodities will continue to soar. the markets will continue to ‘go up’... as the unit of measure shrinks i could go on, but it’s all very predictable

Actually. It's potentially worse than that for the near future (until another party can rise up to replace the GOP)

If the GOP gives us Romney, I'm likely walking -- & am hoping MILLIONS of other GOP voters PERMANENTLY walk.

If the GOP establishment can't discern a pure RINO from even a Moderate, they have no business imposing Obama lites upon us and deserve to permanently forfeit their power structure.

At this point, the GOP is whig-bound. Extinction ahead.

And that will mean even MORE Dem wins until a new party -- like the Republican party in the 1850s -- can rise up to take on the key issues of the day!

He doesnt need to. In fact, if he panders too much to the evangelicals, he has no chance of beating Obama because in doing so he will alienate people like me. I’m a white ethnic Catholic who has NEVER voted for a Democrat, but even I won’t vote for Santorum (or Newt). Santorum is a buffoon! And Newt? Are people really gullible enough to be taken in by his used car salesman’s schtick? He’s whip smart and a great speaker — but he’s a con man — like a TV preacher! The Christian Right is far out of step with the large majority of American voters. Anyone who thinks Santorem or Newt have a prayer of actually winning the presidency is in a delusional DREAMLAND!

Just as we cannot allow the “race card” to to be used as a false premise, we have to boldly make the argument that we are fighting a Political Agenda. Mormonism has, since its founding by Joseph Smith, sought to overthrow the government of the United States and set up a Theocracy. That was his intention when he ran for President in 1844.

Just One implication of a President Romney: Do we really want the Mormon Church appointing Supreme Court Justices?

With Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader, and Orin Hatch as the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, do you really think that won’t happen if Romney is elected?

No, we have to speak up and not let the false accusations of bigotry silence us. Too much is at stake.

Despite being in ‘Mormon Country” Mitt got lots fewer votes this time around than he did in 2008.

LOTS fewer?

No.

Fewer?

Yes.

Whatever the overall totals were...in both years ('08 & '12), Mormons constituted 25% of the vote in Nevada.

2008: Mitt got 94-95% of the Mormon vote.
2012: Mitt got 88% of the Mormon vote.

It's all in the exit polls. (If you want actual links, I'll give 'em to you).

Bottom line: You've got 8 out of every 9 GOP Mormons in Nevada voting for Romney!...and they turn out...so that what's about 7-8 % of the overall population becomes 25% of the actual GOP vote! [They were already about 15% of the GOP registered voters]

So think about that.

25% of the voting pie Saturday were Mormon...meaning that it's like a guy showing up for a football game with a 21-3 lead...and the first 1/4 of game-time has already been run off!

All he has to do is convince 1 out of 3 (or even less) non-Mormon voters to vote for him...which he does (with a few % pts over that, actually).

Two former posts: Colo.
Good for you for taking like stance.

To Reince Priebus:

I have been a lifelong Republican and am also a Conservative activist.
I have donated funds to the RNC and other GOP groups for years in addition to working all over the US to help elect Conservative/GOP candidates to office.

I will no longer give any contributions to the RNC nor support it in any way if Mitt Romney is our nominee.
He is not Conservative and more importantly, he has shown his true colors in Fla. with his negative campaigning.
He is a mean spirited and unlikable man...and he would govern with liberal ideas.
I believe that under his presidency, our country would continue to decline and American’s exceptionalism would be in as much danger as it is under Obama.
It will be a sad state of affairs if our party refuses to stay true to our founding fathers and Constitutional core.
Newt is my preference right now. I hope he wins tonight in Fla. despite the predictions.

For the first time in my adult voting life, I will do something that I never thought possible if Romney is our choice in Nov.
I will not vote for POTUS. If like minded Conservatives follow suit, then the GOP will be in for a huge wake up call, won’t it?
For now, I plan to channel my efforts locally and statewide, especially for Scott Walker, in my home state of Wisconsin.

Mary in Wisconsin

Pray for America.
02/04/12 | Mountain Mary
Posted on Sat Feb 04 2012 21:05:04 GMT-0600 (Central Standard Time) by Mountain Mary

What has happened to our voting electorate? We are now faced with the possibility of reelecting the worst President in the history of our nation OR supporting a flip flopping, narcissistic Massachusetts moderate who wrote the blueprint for Obamacare.

People ask me why I have decided NOT vote for Mitt Romney in November, be he our nominee. I will not vote for him because to do so would be for me to live the same lie that Mitt Romney has defined himself as. He is a disgrace to our party and to our country. The man has no scruples, no core message and above all, no honor. He ran the most underhanded, ruthless, power grabbing campaign in Fla. that I have ever witnessed. He has no concept of how to respectfully challenge opponents, nor did he try to discover what that would look like. Instead, he resorted to Chicago thuglike tactics to destroy his opponent taken right out of the playbook of Saul Alinsky: Focus, target, destroy. He is not the Conservative that we need to bring the fight to Obama like we neglected to do by nominating John McCain.. And where did that get us in 2008?

The only way to hold our heads high and know we aren’t selling ourselves short as Republicans is to stay true to our core values and principles by demanding nothing other than a principled Constitutional, Reaganesque Conservative who shares our values and like us, embraces the founding fathers doctrines that made America great. The contrast with Obama should be sharp. No Moderates/No Way. Pray for our Republic and may we always remember that we are One Nation, Under God.

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