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G.O.P. Race Has Hallmarks of Prolonged Battle (Buh bye, inevitability)
NYT ^ | February 8, 2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 02/08/2012 5:12:12 AM PST by RoosterRedux

Whatever your perspective on how likely Mitt Romney was to lose the Republican nomination race prior to Tuesday evening, it should be acknowledged that he had about the worst results conceivable.

In Minnesota, a state which Mr. Romney carried easily in 2008, he has so far failed to win a single county — and got just 17 percent of the vote. That put him 27 points behind Rick Santorum, and 10 points behind Ron Paul, who finished in second.

Missouri is a less important result since its beauty contest primary did not count for delegate selection and since turnout was understandably low there. But Mr. Romney lost all 114 counties in Missouri — and the state as a whole by 30 points, far more than polls projected.

Then there was Colorado, a state that has reasonably similar demographics to Nevada, which Mr. Romney carried easily on Saturday. Colorado has somewhat fewer Mormon voters than Nevada, which hurts Mr. Romney — but it has somewhat more wealthy ones, which favors him. The betting market Intrade gave Mr. Romney about a 97 percent chance of winning Colorado entering the evening. But he lost the state by 5 points to Mr. Santorum.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012gopprimary; anncoulterfail; bow2bishopromney; bow2deathpanels; bow2morebigdigs; bow2romneycare; dnc4romney; drudge4romney; drudgefail; iag4romney; loserromney; msm4romney; obama4romney; romney4chosenone; romney4emperor; romney4newking; romneyfail
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1 posted on 02/08/2012 5:12:14 AM PST by RoosterRedux
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To: RoosterRedux

The electoral math, so far, shows the green guy doing way better than the blue guy. Even without a billionaire sugar daddy.
2 posted on 02/08/2012 5:13:39 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: RoosterRedux

Question:How long until we see a Romney ad calling Santorum “extreme?”


3 posted on 02/08/2012 5:15:03 AM PST by eCSMaster (Excommunicate evildoers)
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To: RoosterRedux
I hope this wipes that stupid smile off Romney's face!


4 posted on 02/08/2012 5:15:14 AM PST by RoosterRedux (Go Newt!)
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To: RoosterRedux
Call me a pessimist but I think Mitt's going to be the nominee. What a choice Obama or Romney.
5 posted on 02/08/2012 5:18:28 AM PST by NH Red
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To: Vigilanteman

I am more concerned with getting rid of the red guy than either the green or blue guy. And this says loud and clear “Mitt, we don’t want’cha! Go back to Massachusetts!”


6 posted on 02/08/2012 5:18:50 AM PST by RoosterRedux (Go Newt!)
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To: RoosterRedux
In Minnesota, a state which Mr. Romney carried easily in 2008, he has so far failed to win a single county — and got just 17 percent of the vote. That put him 27 points behind Rick Santorum, and 10 points behind Ron Paul, who finished in second.

Or having a +42 point advantage in Colorado diminished to a -5 loss.

7 posted on 02/08/2012 5:20:00 AM PST by BigSkyFreeper (You have entered an invalid birthday)
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To: RoosterRedux

Not to mention all the money Romney spent in each of the three states.


8 posted on 02/08/2012 5:21:03 AM PST by BigSkyFreeper (You have entered an invalid birthday)
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To: Vigilanteman
Mitt's problem was simple ~ those states had few Cuban American voting blocs and even fewer Mormons!

The original idea of the Romney campaign was simply to discourage regular Republicans (that is, Conservatives) by showing overwhelming power in New Hampshire, then Florida and then Nevada.

We did not panic, and now we have Santorum not only pulling up strong but he swept the field yesterday with 50%+ vote totals ~ something almost unheard of even at the county level in this contest.

Gingrich' ploy is to simply pull the South (exclusive of Florida) which will give him some serious working capital in a deadlocked convention!

At the moment he and Santorum have legal residence somewhere near me ~ in Fairfax County VA, so they can't run together.

Somebody will need to move soon!

9 posted on 02/08/2012 5:21:06 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: RoosterRedux
Mitt Romney and the GOP Establishment were not happy with last night's results...


10 posted on 02/08/2012 5:21:06 AM PST by COBOL2Java (Controlling RINOs in Congress is like herding cats; should we be surprised Newt got scratched?)
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To: eCSMaster

The more people see of Romney, the less they like him .... when he shows yet again his nasty ‘cornered rat’ demeanor in attacks on Santorum, folks won’t like what they see .... big time.


11 posted on 02/08/2012 5:21:28 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: NH Red

You are a pessimist.


12 posted on 02/08/2012 5:22:28 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: COBOL2Java
can we now be spared the wisdom of the FOX ALL STARS?

enough of the Bill Chrystal, Chas. Krauthammer, Ted Baxter, Bret Beahr, Toyko Rove, Ann Colter, Sean Wannabe, Dana Parino et. al. Romney cheerleading squad

It's time for some honesty - the rank and file don't want mittens and don't want to be TOLD he's the chosen one

.

13 posted on 02/08/2012 5:22:56 AM PST by Elle Bee
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To: RoosterRedux
Intrade gave Mr. Romney about a 97 percent chance of winning Colorado entering the evening

LOL, so much for intrade.........

14 posted on 02/08/2012 5:25:42 AM PST by HerrBlucher (.)
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To: MissMagnolia
And Mitt will now turn his nastiness on Santorum.

I heard Santorum on the radio yesterday (I am embarrassed to say what station) and he said that whenever anyone attacks Mitt, it is usually his record. But when Mitt attacks, it is almost always personal and usually a lie.

15 posted on 02/08/2012 5:27:08 AM PST by RoosterRedux (Go Newt!)
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To: RoosterRedux

I don't want an open convention because the right wing nuts will circulate a Contract with America type of document requiring me to do a lot of things I strongly oppose ... beginning with the repeal of ObamaCare!

16 posted on 02/08/2012 5:28:10 AM PST by Zakeet (Obama is to leadership as an Etch-A-Sketch is to art)
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To: NH Red

Not if he keeps getting his arse handed to him......


17 posted on 02/08/2012 5:30:11 AM PST by HerrBlucher (.)
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To: RoosterRedux
But when Mitt attacks, it is almost always personal and usually a lie.

I agree ..... but I think going after "Bella's dad Rick" vs a "philanderer with three-marriages Gingrich" is going to be a bad strategy. The public perception of Rick is much different than Newt. I guess we'll find out shortly ....!

18 posted on 02/08/2012 5:32:08 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: Vigilanteman

The trouble is that the “green guy” hasn’t much of a chance against the Jug-eared Muslim.


19 posted on 02/08/2012 5:38:36 AM PST by Redleg Duke ("Madison, Wisconsin is 30 square miles surrounded by reality.", L. S. Dryfus)
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To: RoosterRedux

The brouhaha may have woken up the social conservatives, and turned the tide for Rick. There was a low turnout, and the anti-Romney vote went to Rick.

Thank-you Sebebellius, Obama, and Axelrod!

They’ve shot themselves in the foot. I’m beginning to think that Santorum is more electable than Newt, and that, because of Obama’s attack on the Church, Santorum stands a good chance of beating Obama.


20 posted on 02/08/2012 5:39:32 AM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas
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