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G.O.P. Race Has Hallmarks of Prolonged Battle (Buh bye, inevitability)
NYT ^ | February 8, 2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 02/08/2012 5:12:12 AM PST by RoosterRedux

Whatever your perspective on how likely Mitt Romney was to lose the Republican nomination race prior to Tuesday evening, it should be acknowledged that he had about the worst results conceivable.

In Minnesota, a state which Mr. Romney carried easily in 2008, he has so far failed to win a single county — and got just 17 percent of the vote. That put him 27 points behind Rick Santorum, and 10 points behind Ron Paul, who finished in second.

Missouri is a less important result since its beauty contest primary did not count for delegate selection and since turnout was understandably low there. But Mr. Romney lost all 114 counties in Missouri — and the state as a whole by 30 points, far more than polls projected.

Then there was Colorado, a state that has reasonably similar demographics to Nevada, which Mr. Romney carried easily on Saturday. Colorado has somewhat fewer Mormon voters than Nevada, which hurts Mr. Romney — but it has somewhat more wealthy ones, which favors him. The betting market Intrade gave Mr. Romney about a 97 percent chance of winning Colorado entering the evening. But he lost the state by 5 points to Mr. Santorum.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012gopprimary; anncoulterfail; bow2bishopromney; bow2deathpanels; bow2morebigdigs; bow2romneycare; dnc4romney; drudge4romney; drudgefail; iag4romney; loserromney; msm4romney; obama4romney; romney4chosenone; romney4emperor; romney4newking; romneyfail

1 posted on 02/08/2012 5:12:14 AM PST by RoosterRedux
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To: RoosterRedux

The electoral math, so far, shows the green guy doing way better than the blue guy. Even without a billionaire sugar daddy.
2 posted on 02/08/2012 5:13:39 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: RoosterRedux

Question:How long until we see a Romney ad calling Santorum “extreme?”


3 posted on 02/08/2012 5:15:03 AM PST by eCSMaster (Excommunicate evildoers)
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To: RoosterRedux
I hope this wipes that stupid smile off Romney's face!


4 posted on 02/08/2012 5:15:14 AM PST by RoosterRedux (Go Newt!)
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To: RoosterRedux
Call me a pessimist but I think Mitt's going to be the nominee. What a choice Obama or Romney.
5 posted on 02/08/2012 5:18:28 AM PST by NH Red
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To: Vigilanteman

I am more concerned with getting rid of the red guy than either the green or blue guy. And this says loud and clear “Mitt, we don’t want’cha! Go back to Massachusetts!”


6 posted on 02/08/2012 5:18:50 AM PST by RoosterRedux (Go Newt!)
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To: RoosterRedux
In Minnesota, a state which Mr. Romney carried easily in 2008, he has so far failed to win a single county — and got just 17 percent of the vote. That put him 27 points behind Rick Santorum, and 10 points behind Ron Paul, who finished in second.

Or having a +42 point advantage in Colorado diminished to a -5 loss.

7 posted on 02/08/2012 5:20:00 AM PST by BigSkyFreeper (You have entered an invalid birthday)
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To: RoosterRedux

Not to mention all the money Romney spent in each of the three states.


8 posted on 02/08/2012 5:21:03 AM PST by BigSkyFreeper (You have entered an invalid birthday)
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To: Vigilanteman
Mitt's problem was simple ~ those states had few Cuban American voting blocs and even fewer Mormons!

The original idea of the Romney campaign was simply to discourage regular Republicans (that is, Conservatives) by showing overwhelming power in New Hampshire, then Florida and then Nevada.

We did not panic, and now we have Santorum not only pulling up strong but he swept the field yesterday with 50%+ vote totals ~ something almost unheard of even at the county level in this contest.

Gingrich' ploy is to simply pull the South (exclusive of Florida) which will give him some serious working capital in a deadlocked convention!

At the moment he and Santorum have legal residence somewhere near me ~ in Fairfax County VA, so they can't run together.

Somebody will need to move soon!

9 posted on 02/08/2012 5:21:06 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: RoosterRedux
Mitt Romney and the GOP Establishment were not happy with last night's results...


10 posted on 02/08/2012 5:21:06 AM PST by COBOL2Java (Controlling RINOs in Congress is like herding cats; should we be surprised Newt got scratched?)
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To: eCSMaster

The more people see of Romney, the less they like him .... when he shows yet again his nasty ‘cornered rat’ demeanor in attacks on Santorum, folks won’t like what they see .... big time.


11 posted on 02/08/2012 5:21:28 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: NH Red

You are a pessimist.


12 posted on 02/08/2012 5:22:28 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: COBOL2Java
can we now be spared the wisdom of the FOX ALL STARS?

enough of the Bill Chrystal, Chas. Krauthammer, Ted Baxter, Bret Beahr, Toyko Rove, Ann Colter, Sean Wannabe, Dana Parino et. al. Romney cheerleading squad

It's time for some honesty - the rank and file don't want mittens and don't want to be TOLD he's the chosen one

.

13 posted on 02/08/2012 5:22:56 AM PST by Elle Bee
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To: RoosterRedux
Intrade gave Mr. Romney about a 97 percent chance of winning Colorado entering the evening

LOL, so much for intrade.........

14 posted on 02/08/2012 5:25:42 AM PST by HerrBlucher (.)
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To: MissMagnolia
And Mitt will now turn his nastiness on Santorum.

I heard Santorum on the radio yesterday (I am embarrassed to say what station) and he said that whenever anyone attacks Mitt, it is usually his record. But when Mitt attacks, it is almost always personal and usually a lie.

15 posted on 02/08/2012 5:27:08 AM PST by RoosterRedux (Go Newt!)
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To: RoosterRedux

I don't want an open convention because the right wing nuts will circulate a Contract with America type of document requiring me to do a lot of things I strongly oppose ... beginning with the repeal of ObamaCare!

16 posted on 02/08/2012 5:28:10 AM PST by Zakeet (Obama is to leadership as an Etch-A-Sketch is to art)
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To: NH Red

Not if he keeps getting his arse handed to him......


17 posted on 02/08/2012 5:30:11 AM PST by HerrBlucher (.)
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To: RoosterRedux
But when Mitt attacks, it is almost always personal and usually a lie.

I agree ..... but I think going after "Bella's dad Rick" vs a "philanderer with three-marriages Gingrich" is going to be a bad strategy. The public perception of Rick is much different than Newt. I guess we'll find out shortly ....!

18 posted on 02/08/2012 5:32:08 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: Vigilanteman

The trouble is that the “green guy” hasn’t much of a chance against the Jug-eared Muslim.


19 posted on 02/08/2012 5:38:36 AM PST by Redleg Duke ("Madison, Wisconsin is 30 square miles surrounded by reality.", L. S. Dryfus)
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To: RoosterRedux

The brouhaha may have woken up the social conservatives, and turned the tide for Rick. There was a low turnout, and the anti-Romney vote went to Rick.

Thank-you Sebebellius, Obama, and Axelrod!

They’ve shot themselves in the foot. I’m beginning to think that Santorum is more electable than Newt, and that, because of Obama’s attack on the Church, Santorum stands a good chance of beating Obama.


20 posted on 02/08/2012 5:39:32 AM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas
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To: RoosterRedux

If lightning were to strike and Santorum were to become the nominee (albeit unlikely), I can’t help but think the dems would be rather uneasy about the inevitability of Santorum bringing up cultural/social issues.


21 posted on 02/08/2012 5:48:28 AM PST by ScottinVA (GOP, meet Courage... Courage, meet GOP.)
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To: Redleg Duke

A better chance than the blue guy or the red guy. Their voters hate each other. The green guy is their second choice.


22 posted on 02/08/2012 5:51:26 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Elle Bee

Thats the truth. And don’t leave out Britt Hume who has been on trashing Newt night after night. He has gotten the Rombot pill also.


23 posted on 02/08/2012 5:54:58 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Redleg Duke

The trouble is that the “green guy” hasn’t much of a chance against the Jug-eared Muslim.”

You may of course be right...in which case, it doesn’t matter what happens in the GOP, because I don’t think that either Newt or Romney can win the general.

So with that gloominess, let’s reconsider. Santorum actually posted some pretty good general election numbers against obama this week. IF he starts with what McCain won, and adds Pennsulvania (I know that’s a big IF...but surely there is some residual affection from a guy’s home state...especially one where obama is very unpopular), then, we are down to, yet again, just a few big states. Remember also that the McCain states have picked up like 4 or 5 additional EVs b/c of the census...that’s sort of like throwing in Iowa to the McCain base.

And, in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, etc....I think Santorum has a fighting chance because obama is very unpopular in those places. I think any GOP nominee would have a fighting chance, including Romney and Gingrich, but the problem I see with Romney is that he is going to have to convince conservatives (won’t be easy...and will cost time and money) and Gingrich is going to have to convince women and everyone else who is (wrongly) put off by his demeanor.

Yes, the obama people are going to turn the general election into one big discussion of condoms, etc. But if Rick can successfully turn that into “obama is bashing Catholics” (remember, obama won a small majority of Catholics in 08), then, he will come out on the top of that. That conversation will be easier in light of all that has happened last week on the obama contraception mandate. If Rick does THAT, and finds a way to get a leg up in Florida, Ohio, WI, etc....then, I think he has a chance.

I just see a clearer path forward for Santorum right now, rather than Romney or Gingrich. (Make no mistake, though....unlike what appears to be the majority at FR, I will support the GOP nominee b/c obama has to go).

In any event. I am deeply concerned, but that is sort of how I see it at this time....


24 posted on 02/08/2012 5:58:37 AM PST by ConservativeDude
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To: Redleg Duke
The trouble is that the “green guy” hasn’t much of a chance against the Jug-eared Muslim.

In reality, none of them have much of a chance. But Gingrich polls the worst vs. the JEM (jug-eared muslim). He has great ideas... sometimes... but he can be aggravatingly erratic at times, and that turns voters off.

25 posted on 02/08/2012 6:01:31 AM PST by ScottinVA (GOP, meet Courage... Courage, meet GOP.)
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To: ConservativeDude
I just see a clearer path forward for Santorum right now

Same here, and one other point. While much is made of Newt's debating skills, Santorum's are underrated. His taking down of Romneycare was a classic. Rick is quite capable of getting in his share of punches.

26 posted on 02/08/2012 6:04:52 AM PST by ScottinVA (GOP, meet Courage... Courage, meet GOP.)
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To: Georgia Girl 2
I Britt Hume blames Newt for outing his son's affair with a congressman Paxton ... it was really more likely Joe Scarborough

I remember the story … I was still in DC at the time …… Brit Hume’s son, Sandy aka Alexander, was a drinker who has fallen off the wagon and been arrested for DWI and tried to hang himself in jail … He was released and went home and ate a shotgun

That ‘back pain’ pill popping weasel Joe Scarborough was more likely the guy who outed Hume and Paxton … but there has been lots of speculation tossed Newt’s direction given FOX’s stilted coverage of Newt

Did Newt Gingrich Out Brit Hume’s Dead Gay Son?

.

27 posted on 02/08/2012 6:15:58 AM PST by Elle Bee
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To: Elle Bee
enough of the Bill Chrystal, Chas. Krauthammer, Ted Baxter, Bret Beahr, Toyko Rove, Ann Colter, Sean Wannabe, Dana Parino et. al. Romney cheerleading squad

At one time I was as loyal a Fox watcher as anybody. Not now, since it's all Romney, all the time. It's just too disgusting to watch.

I thought to choose two or three names among those you listed to name which disgust me the most but couldn't do it, they are equally disgusting.

28 posted on 02/08/2012 6:18:04 AM PST by Graybeard58 (Eccl 10 v. 19 A feast is made for laughter, and wine maketh merry: but money answereth all things.)
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To: Elle Bee

Where have I been? I had no idea about that.


29 posted on 02/08/2012 6:20:31 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: COBOL2Java

Mitt: “Thank you sir, may I have another?”


30 posted on 02/08/2012 6:20:58 AM PST by wbill
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To: Graybeard58
I thought to choose two or three names among those you listed to name which disgust me the most but couldn't do it, they are equally disgusting.

and it's pretty easy to come up with a dozen more

There is a market for an honest and a conseveritive media alternative

FOX News may have 'jumped the shark' over mittens

.

31 posted on 02/08/2012 6:24:51 AM PST by Elle Bee
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To: Georgia Girl 2
it's likely why Drudge hates Newt so ... and it may also be a reason for his sometimes 'walker' Ann Colter

.

32 posted on 02/08/2012 6:27:16 AM PST by Elle Bee
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To: Georgia Girl 2
DC has a huge gay population, the media , congressional staff, the bureaucratic government employees as well as office holders

They're just so sophisticated and we unwashed have no need to know

.

33 posted on 02/08/2012 6:32:19 AM PST by Elle Bee
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To: eCSMaster
Question:How long until we see a Romney ad calling Santorum “extreme?”

I don't know, but there was some Minnesota (I think) city democrat mayor calling him extreme last night on the news. He had nice hair, too, so he might have been in cahoots with Romney.

34 posted on 02/08/2012 7:52:24 AM PST by tnlibertarian (Selfishly stealing other people's witticisms for taglines since 2002.)
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