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Why has GOP turnout taken a dive? (MO down massive 57%)
CNN Politics ^ | February 8, 2012 | John Avlon

Posted on 02/08/2012 12:04:30 PM PST by red flanker

Beneath Rick Santorum's stunning three-state sweep on Tuesday stands another stubborn sign of dissatisfaction with the status quo: Republican turnout is down.

I'm talking embarrassingly, disturbingly, hey-don't-you-know-it's-an-election-year bad. It is a sign of a serious enthusiasm gap among the rank and file, and a particularly bad omen for Mitt Romney and the GOP in the general election.

Here's the tale of the tape, state by state, beginning with Tuesday night: Minnesota had just more than 47,000 people turn out for its caucuses this year -- four years ago it was nearly 63,000 -- and Romney came in first, not a distant third as he did Tuesday night. In Colorado, more than 70,000 people turned out for its caucus in 2008 -- but in 2012 it was 65,000. And Missouri -- even making a generous discount for the fact that this was an entirely symbolic contest -- had 232,000 people turn out, less than half the number who did four years ago.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gingrich; paul; romney; santorum; santorumwin
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The turnout results when either Romney or Santorum win are dramatically lower compared to 2008. This is an indicator of a blowout win for Obama since neither Romney or Santorum can't even inspire GOP voters and many stay home.

The only exception is the showing of Newt Gingrich in both his dramatic win in South Carolina and then in his winning counties in Florida. Newt inspires people to turn out in record numbers compared to 2008, while Santorum and Romney are two dimensional politicians by comparison.



1 posted on 02/08/2012 12:04:41 PM PST by red flanker
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2 posted on 02/08/2012 12:07:58 PM PST by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: red flanker
a blowout win for Obama

I see the POTUS election really only a tossup in 3 states Ohio, Penna, and Florida.

The other ones are already decided or too small to really matter.

3 posted on 02/08/2012 12:09:57 PM PST by nascarnation (DEFEAT BARAQ 2012 DEPORT BARAQ 2013)
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To: red flanker

None of the candidates are real likeable.


4 posted on 02/08/2012 12:09:57 PM PST by Tribune7 (GAS WAS $1.85 per gallon on the day Obama was Inaugurated! - - freeper Gaffer)
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To: red flanker

If, as it looks now, Speaker Gingrich doesn’t garner the GOP nomination, we must draft, nominate and elect Governor Sarah Palin president in the most crushing tidal wave of enthusiastic good judgment ever seen in the history of this nation. With that one bold move we will accomplish the dual goals of seeing America led by the greatest natural born leader in our generation, even as we witness the final implosion and last agonized shrieks of our endlessly lying extreme left loonies. Their entire movement, from the fabricated attacks on President Bush beginning with ‘Blood For Oil’ to the crammed-down-our-gullets lies of Obamacare and the Shovel Ready Stimulus, have been nothing but one vile deceit heaped upon another. Such an absolute inability to deal in the truth or to face the facts of our situation and its solutions only proves that there is simply no place at the grown-ups’ table for these diseased sputa. Good riddance to rubes, hippies and bad rubbish. Time to usher in the American Renaissance, carried in on the invigoratingly freshening breeze of President Sarah Palin.


5 posted on 02/08/2012 12:10:06 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
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To: red flanker
Got news for you...Gingrich ain't doing any better.

Here's why the GOP turnout has taken such a dive...

Sarah Palin NOT running in 2012

6 posted on 02/08/2012 12:11:37 PM PST by Timber Rattler (Just say NO! to RINOS and the GOP-E)
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To: red flanker

you do know newt was on ballot in iowa,new hampshire,colorado,minnesota where he was up by 20 a few weeks ago and got only 10 percent,nevada...

ya newt inspires.....south carolina was more a f u to abc than anything


7 posted on 02/08/2012 12:12:09 PM PST by skaterboy (Hate=Love....Love=Hate)
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To: red flanker

Oh, please! It was a non-binding primary.

If a real conservative is the republican nominee, turnout will be astronomical.


8 posted on 02/08/2012 12:13:05 PM PST by cotton1706
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To: red flanker
Newt inspires people to turn out in record numbers

Apparently not yesterday, where he pulled 10-15%.

There's plenty of enthusiasm for Santorum on FR and in Missouri / Minnesota / Colorado. All those people came out to vote for a candidate they had been told couldn't win and should drop out.

Missouri is an odd case since this vote was non-binding.

But in general, the more people think Romney is inevitable, the less they will come out to vote - but now that he's been proven beatable, we should see higher turnout numbers ahead.

9 posted on 02/08/2012 12:14:33 PM PST by RygelXVI
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To: red flanker
Newt inspires old white men people to turn out in record numbers
10 posted on 02/08/2012 12:15:28 PM PST by steve86 (Acerbic by nature, not nurture (Could be worst in 40 years))
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To: red flanker

It’s a terrible crop of candidates and everybody knows it. I’m not supporting Newt because I like him; it’s just that I think he’s the best of the worst. I think many others feel the same way.

Willard Romney the open socialist...I think I’ll stop there.

Newt talks a good game, but he has a checkered past.

Santorum is a stale, uninspiring fiscal liberal. He’s also squishy on SOPA, one of the few issues that the left and right united against.

Wrong Paul and his personality cult need to be institutionalized.


11 posted on 02/08/2012 12:17:18 PM PST by Cato in PA (1/26/12: Bloody Thursday)
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To: red flanker

A lot of Newt voters stayed home.


12 posted on 02/08/2012 12:17:28 PM PST by pallis
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To: red flanker

This is an indicator of a blowout win for Obama since neither Romney or Santorum can’t even inspire GOP voters and many stay home.”

Maybe.

But I think there is another possibility. While it is true that the GOP primary voters are not overly excited about any of these 3 guys, that doesn’t mean that they are not excited about beating obama. I can totally see the logic of sitting out of the primary and then coming back in November to beat obama. Sort of an “I don’t care who the nominee is, I am going to vote for him”.

I do think that could be going on here.


13 posted on 02/08/2012 12:18:56 PM PST by ConservativeDude
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To: red flanker

Negative campaigns breed negative sentiment leading to negative turnout leading to a LOSS.


14 posted on 02/08/2012 12:19:25 PM PST by sanjuanbob (Festina Lente)
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To: musicman

Four words:

ROMNEY
GINGRICH
PAUL
SANTORUM


15 posted on 02/08/2012 12:19:45 PM PST by Reagan69 (I supported Sarah Palin and all I got was a lousy DVD !)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Sounds like a plan!

Where’s RNC this year?


16 posted on 02/08/2012 12:20:09 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going)
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To: musicman

It’s obvious. The GOP is not happy about any of this. The candidates were not what the base wanted to see


17 posted on 02/08/2012 12:21:58 PM PST by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: red flanker

Because the conservative options for Obama’s opposition suck, that’s why. We do not have to coalesce around ‘the only one who can beat Obama’ now, but we must eventually.

I am not ready to pick/select now, despite others’ plaint to do so NOW. Let’s wait 2-4 months and see what shakes out. When the smoke clears, we can ‘coalesce’....


18 posted on 02/08/2012 12:23:35 PM PST by Gaffer
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To: nascarnation

Why has GOP turnout taken a dive?

Probably because at least that many have given up on the Republican party. In 2010, lots of us out here busted our butts to elect conservatives to Congress only to see the same old same old again. Two trillion dollars later, some of us are saying, “is this all there is”?
Sorry, but we do not trust the Republicans any more than we trust the Democrats. Shit by any name is still shit.


19 posted on 02/08/2012 12:24:16 PM PST by Tupelo ( 2012 TEA PARTYER but no longer a Republican)
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To: red flanker
You reap what you sow, and part of the reason turnout is down is directly related to the problem of polarization. The Republican Party is more ideologically polarized than at any time in recent history. Therefore, it put up more purely right-wing candidates than it did four years before, when center-right leaders such as McCain and Rudy Giuliani were also in the race. A bigger tent inspired bigger turnout.

LOL

Because those right wingers are really remaining in the field huh? Santorum is another big government social conservative like Bush, Romney is far left, and Newt with respect adjusts his principles for self advancement. Any wonder conservatives are unenthused...even if they partially brought it on themselves with their own votes. Tack on the Republicans elected to change Washington completely betraying the people who put them there the last couple years and no one in DC has a right to expect us to be happy about giving them more power.

20 posted on 02/08/2012 12:25:37 PM PST by Soul Seeker (I will work every day to make Washington, D.C., as inconsequential in your lives as I can - Perry)
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To: Elsie

Tampa, Florida, I believe.


21 posted on 02/08/2012 12:26:19 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
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To: red flanker
Well, quite frankly if four more years of Obama isn't enough in and of itself to inspire GOP voters to vote in November, then they deserve...well...four more years of Obama.
22 posted on 02/08/2012 12:28:07 PM PST by apillar
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To: sanjuanbob
“Negative campaigns breed negative sentiment leading to negative turnout leading to a LOSS.”

Exactly!!! It is a familiar pattern by now. Rominey can't win on ideas so he uses his super PAC’s to go nuclear negative on whoever happens to be taking his thunder away. The result is suppressed voter turnout. Yippeee, Mittens regains his top dog status but each and every time he loses more and more enthusiasm for his campaign. A Pyrrhic victory if there ever was one.

23 posted on 02/08/2012 12:28:36 PM PST by FlipWilson
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To: red flanker

I believe Newt also inspired massive increases in turnout in 1994 when Repubs retook the House. When he’s “on” there’s no one better. SC had 35% increase, all the others went down or had low single digit increases. His problem is when he is badly outspent and can’t get his message out, and a couple “off” debate performances in Florida. I think he’s going to get back on his game but he needs to find a way to defend himself on the cheap. In the general election he might be outspent, but not by the massive ratio he’s facing now, so I don’t think it’ll be a problem.


24 posted on 02/08/2012 12:29:35 PM PST by JediJones (Newt-er Romney in 2012!)
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To: red flanker

My take is that turnout is down because the base has been told that Romney is our candidate whether we like it or not and the GOP-E will see to it that he gets the nomination no matter what it takes. So why bother?

My hunch is that when it becomes clear to one and all that Romney is vulnerable, turnout will exceed all expectations as we work to get a better candidate nominated.

The convention ought to be very interesting.


25 posted on 02/08/2012 12:29:35 PM PST by Wife of D28Man
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To: sanjuanbob
Negative campaigns breed negative sentiment leading to negative turnout leading to a LOSS.

That's the crux of it right there. After months of GOP candidates shredding each other 24/7 while watching 0bama's poll numbers rise with each passing day, along with the GOP estabs pushing the "let's-lose-gracefully-by-nominating-Romney" tact, why would anyone have any degree of excitement? The only ones excited at this point are the dems, as they can now envision reaching their holy grail of America's destruction.

26 posted on 02/08/2012 12:30:39 PM PST by ScottinVA (GOP, meet Courage... Courage, meet GOP.)
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To: skaterboy

I just early voted for Newt here in Ohio. I felt good about it. I’ll vote for our nominee regardless of who it is though as I seriously do not want to be listening to my liberal family gloating at the Thanksgiving table next year.


27 posted on 02/08/2012 12:31:25 PM PST by RC one (the majority of republicans agree, anyone but Romney.)
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To: red flanker

I LOVE A LOW VOTER TURN-OUT. Know why? Because that means that the uninformed, uninterested and uncaring stayed home and that’s a good thing because they don’t know s**t from shinola about what’s going on. GOOD!!! I don’t care if just 10,000 people vote.... Low voter turn-out, as a rule, benefits Conservative candidates.

HELL YEAH; ALL DUMMIES STAY FRIGGIN’ HOME!!!


28 posted on 02/08/2012 12:32:54 PM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: red flanker

Wrong, and then wrong, people could just as well have stayed home because they were happy with either one.


29 posted on 02/08/2012 12:33:18 PM PST by org.whodat (Sorry bill, I should never have made all those jokes about you and Lewinsky, have fun.)
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To: Timber Rattler; All

“Sarah Palin NOT running in 2012”

I just tweeted this and appealed to Gov. Palin to run. Otherwise, we conservatives are SCREWED.


30 posted on 02/08/2012 12:34:00 PM PST by el_texicano (Palinista to the core!)
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To: red flanker

The reason turnout has taken a dive is because — I hate to say it — all of the remaining candidates have serious flaws. Romney, as we all know, is a flip-flopping RINO. Newt is a loose cannon with a vindictive streak who has some ideas that easily could be categorized as Big Government. And Rick is a good social conservative who fully supported Bush’s “Compassionate Conservatism” and was the GOP’s Senate liason with the lobbying community. No amount of whitewash is going to change any of that and it turns people off.


31 posted on 02/08/2012 12:34:19 PM PST by Opinionated Blowhard ("When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.")
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To: Tupelo

To be fair, we didn’t get that much new blood in there. Not to mention we don’t have the Senate. The House has passed bill after bill that has been shelved by Reid. Quitting the fight now is giving up in the 2nd quarter.


32 posted on 02/08/2012 12:35:12 PM PST by JediJones (Newt-er Romney in 2012!)
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To: red flanker
In Missouri, the primary didn't mean anything. No delegates were awarded. That happens in the caucus next month.

The only reason it was held was because the corrupt Democrat SOS would not let them cancel it because it would have saved the Republican party a couple of million bucks.

33 posted on 02/08/2012 12:35:43 PM PST by Joe the Pimpernel (Too many lawmakers, too many laws, too many lawyers.)
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To: GeronL

I agree.

(How long will the “powers-that-be” wait to have a “conversation” with Bishop Willard??)


34 posted on 02/08/2012 12:35:43 PM PST by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: RC one

“I just early voted for Newt here in Ohio.”

Same here in AZ for the 3 voters in my family.


35 posted on 02/08/2012 12:37:36 PM PST by Magic Fingers (Political correctness mutates in order to remain virulent.)
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To: red flanker; All
This is an indicator of a blowout win for Obama since neither Romney or Santorum can't even inspire GOP voters and many stay home.

Bull crap. Just wait until November when B. Hussein Obama's name is on the ballot under the Democrat banner. People will crawl to the polls if they have to. I think the problem right now, in the Primaries, is that people are turned off by all the in-fighting between RINO-Rom and Newtie.
36 posted on 02/08/2012 12:37:36 PM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: GeronL

the good news is nobody is likely to be all that close to sewing this up and maybe we can get someone that can excite the crowd in the picture.


37 posted on 02/08/2012 12:39:34 PM PST by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
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To: apillar

None of the candidates is exciting the base with the exception of Newt in SC with those debate performances. It will interesting to watch whether Santorum can fire up the voters. He better work on his delivery if he wants to win.


38 posted on 02/08/2012 12:39:34 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: red flanker

Missouri had zero delegates awarded last night and whether you like them or not, none of these candidates are all that inspiring and our greatest enemy is the drive-by media and their silly and pointless debates (of which we’ve had about 10,000 at this point).


39 posted on 02/08/2012 12:41:13 PM PST by BigSkyFreeper (You have entered an invalid birthday)
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To: Gaffer
When the smoke clears, we can ‘coalesce’....

I hope your not implying that should people should "coalesce" around a candidate solely because he is a Republican? We've seen where that path leads...Dole, Bush Sr., McLame. Either the GOP pulls their head/s of their nether regions, or I believe there will be a lot of conversatives who will "abstain" from casting a vote for President.

40 posted on 02/08/2012 12:43:34 PM PST by voicereason (Dems, Pubbies...too often a one-sided coin.)
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To: no dems; red flanker; All

People are sick and tired of these endless debates every other day that amount to nothing more than lame attempts at ratings for channels nobody even watches.


41 posted on 02/08/2012 12:44:02 PM PST by BigSkyFreeper (You have entered an invalid birthday)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

From your keyboard to God’s ears. Oh my soul hovers between the hope you have written and the darkness of despair for this country.

Granted, Gov. Palin prayed God for direction and she gave us the answer Oct. 5th. But will God have mercy on us? There is NO ONE ELSE. Could it be that God has seen the deepening darkness gathering about us and plans to move Palin at just the right time?

What must be going on in Gov. Palin’s mind these days?


42 posted on 02/08/2012 12:45:05 PM PST by el_texicano (Palinista to the core!)
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To: no dems

I agree withyou, I would crawl a mile through broken glass to vote against Obama.

It isn’t hardly worth walking any farther than the toilet to vote in a republican primary when the RINO’s have already decided to have Mitt.


43 posted on 02/08/2012 12:45:59 PM PST by Venturer
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To: nascarnation

I see the POTUS election really only a tossup in 3 states Ohio, Penna, and Florida.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
You are absolutely right my friend. And, whoever wins 2 of those 3 States will occupy the White House from 2013 to 2017. That’s why we MUST have Marco Rubio or Allen West on the ticket in the VP spot to help carry FL. So, we have Santorum from PA and Rubio or Allen from Florida.....

YEP, WE’RE GOOD TO GO.


44 posted on 02/08/2012 12:46:52 PM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

You’re gonna have to get beyond the fact Palin ain’t interested in running for president this year, and who can blame her? She’s been through this futile media anal exam once before.


45 posted on 02/08/2012 12:47:13 PM PST by BigSkyFreeper (You have entered an invalid birthday)
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To: GeronL

“The GOP is not happy about any of this. The candidates were not what the base wanted to see”

The “GOP” [establishment] and “the base” do not share the same interests, values, or politcal goals, nor do they support the same candidates.

We are seeing the results of that schism as the primary season unfolds.

It doesn’t look that great for November. Hope my pessimism is proven wrong….


46 posted on 02/08/2012 12:49:24 PM PST by Road Glide
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To: steve86

Seven reasons for Rick Santorum


  1. Who has won the most states without the benefit of their own money, last election's organization or a billionaire casino sugar daddy?
  2. Who is everybody's second choice when he isn't their first?
  3. Who can get both the Romney people and the Gingrich people, who hate each other, to vote for him?
  4. Who has the best record on immigration?
  5. Who has the best plan for repealing ObamaCare? And is the only GOP candidate who didn't help write or approve legislation which helped spawn this fiasco?
  6. Who has the best plan for expanding the American economy and strengthening American families?
  7. Who is the closest thing we have to the "generic Republican" which polls show consistently beating Obama and is most likely to make the election about Obama's sorry record that about himself?

47 posted on 02/08/2012 12:51:34 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: RygelXVI
in general, the more people think Romney is inevitable, the less they will come out to vote - but now that he's been proven beatable, we should see higher turnout numbers ahead

How many of those voters will be Democrat crossovers in "open" primaries trying to pick who they want to run against?

48 posted on 02/08/2012 12:52:25 PM PST by Cowman (How can the IRS seize property without a warrant if the 4th amendment still stands?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Ref. you Post #5: You forgot to mention the loss of Religious Freedom. Today the Catholic Church is under assault by the Obama White House and the Department of HHS. What church or denomination will be next?


49 posted on 02/08/2012 12:52:56 PM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: Elsie
“Where’s RNC this year?”

Working hard behind the scenes to reelect obama.

LLS

50 posted on 02/08/2012 12:54:41 PM PST by LibLieSlayer (Hey repubic elite scumbags... jam mitt up your collective arses!)
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