Skip to comments.US jobless claims brighten labor market picture (Weekly claims fall by 15,000 to 358,000)
Posted on 02/09/2012 6:33:07 AM PST by SeekAndFind
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, underscoring a firming of the labor market.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 358,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
The four-week moving average for new claims, seen as a better measure of labor market trends, fell 11,000 to 366,250 - the lowest level since April 2008.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new claims rising to 370,000.
U.S. stock index futures slightly added to gains after the report, while Treasury debt prices eased. The dollar rose to a session high against the yen.
The claims data pointed to building strength in the labor market. The economy has had two straight months of job gains above 200,000 and the unemployment rate dropped to a three-year low of 8.3 percent in January.
"It does look like with these numbers that the labor market is on a positive footing, which is good to see. Job creation is probably going to be what keeps this recovery alive. Things do seem to be holding up somewhat better than we had expected," said Sean Incremona, an economist at 4CAST in New York.
Solid employment gains and strong manufacturing activity have prompted analysts to temper their expectations of a sharp slowdown in growth in the first quarter after a brisk 2.8 percent annual pace in the final three months of 2011.
The upbeat data have raised doubts about the Federal Reserve's expectation that it could hold interest rates near zero at least through late 2014.
Last week's decline in both new applications for jobless benefits and the four-week average pushed them closer to the 350,000 mark that economists say would signal sustained labor market strength.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
What, where, when, who?
Boeing, Caterpillar, Major Car makers (Yes even Japanese and Korean cars ), Harley Davidson, John Deere just to name a few.
I am merely attempting to express my concerns.
OK, the age-related participation rates make sense. I know that finding work in the mid-50s-plus is difficult and so of course the participation suffers.
As for the census and BLS adjustments v. people disappearing well one economist is quoted as saying: There was not a big increase in discouraged workers,' economist Betsey Stevenson commented on Twitter. 'What happened was Census found a bunch of old people we had assumed died.' Read more: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Lance-Roberts-120206-Not-in-Labor-Force-Analysis.php#ixzz1llXfZtKh
So somehow it was determined that all these old people were out there so we have to include them. Fine. My issue is HOW were they determined to be out there.
The two biggest adjustments to populations have been in 2000 and 2012 -- both Democratic incumbent presidents with connections to 1960s Marxist campus radicals (campus spoiled brats, actually) and both election years with economic issues.
The population adjustments are estimates made year-to-year. Who really knows what's what and who's who?
Furthermore with the census adjusted, the "data used to estimate the labor force participation rate is obtained along with other labor force data from the monthly Current Population Survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics."
The CPS is a monthly survey of about 60000 households. The answers to the survey given by those households are interpreted largely by computers.
How the computer interprets is determined by tables. Those tables are populated by government GS employees. Those government GS employees answer to the White House.
There are no questions on the survey like "Are you marginally attached to . . . ?" The questions have to be interpreted to make determinations relevant to the purpose of the survey -- and I am saying to get the answers that the White House wants or at least as close as possible.
It doesn't matter, peasant. The regime says so... so there. /s
Probably has a deal with The Won's minions for a quid pro quo after the November 2012 win for The Won.
It does seem the labor market is improving.
However, the debt is the debt. Obamacare still hangs over us. And gas/energy prices are historically high. Not to mention 4 years of stagnant growth.
He will still have a tough time winning re-election even with a better employment picture.
It cannot be said the labor market is improving when the government gets to make up it’s own numbers as to who is employed and the size of the available workforce.
If 50% of healthy working-age people have fulltime tax-paying jobs and the other 50% are purposely excluded or off-radar, do you have 100% employment????
I agree. But we have to deal with it.
Good luck trying to explain U-6 and participation rate etc to the apolitical types. They see the headlines as they drive by on Facebook or check their mail on Yahoo. It is what it is.
US jobless claims brighten labor market picture,only ten million people out of work.
Obama pats self on back.
I just heard ABC radio news say that Youth Unemployment was the highest ever in US history, but I can’t seem to find it on the internet. Has anyone seen that somewhere?
Have a look at this site:
During the last three years, youth employment has taken a large hit, absorbing a significant portion of job losses. One in four unemployed persons is under the age of 25 and nearly one in five young workers is unemployed. The rate of joblessness among individuals aged 16-24 is at its highest level on record.
The reason Obama and Dems in NJ are pushing to force youth to stay in High school until 18 is to shift the labor supply curve,
instead of enforcing immigration policy to lower the no skill and low skill labor supply curve, they see it as expedient to turn the education system into a explicitly repressive jail system where one’s only crime is one’s age.
Once you accept that fact, it becomes only one step away from Soylent Green scenarios where the old are sequestered by force due to age.