Santorum moves ahead in Michigan (Santorum 39, Romney 24, Paul 12, Gingrich 11)

Public Policy Polling ^ | 2/13/12 | staff

[TexasFreeper2009]

Rick Santorum's taken a large lead in Michigan's upcoming Republican primary. He's at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.

Santorum's rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich. Santorum's becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.

Santorum's winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as 'very conservative' at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.

Santorum's benefiting from the open nature of Michigan's primary as well. He's only up by 12 points with actual Republican voters, but he has a 40-21 advantage with the Democrats and independents planning to vote that pushes his overall lead up to 15 points. Santorum is winning by a healthy margin in every region of the state except for Oakland County, where Romney has a 40-26 advantage, and the area around Lansing where Paul actually has an advantage at 30% to 27% for both Romney and Santorum.

[Vigilanteman]

The electoral math, so far, still shows Santorum doing way better than Gingrich.

Seven reasons for Rick Santorum

1. Who has won the most states without the benefit of their own money, last election's organization or a billionaire casino sugar daddy?
   
2. Who is everybody's second choice when he isn't their first?
   
3. Who can get both the Romney people and the Gingrich people, who hate each other, to vote for him?
   
4. Who has the best record on immigration?
   
5. Who has the best plan for repealing ObamaCare? And is the only GOP candidate who didn't help write or approve legislation which helped spawn this fiasco?
   
6. Who has the best plan for expanding the American economy and strengthening American families?
   
7. Who is the closest thing we have to the "generic Republican" which polls show consistently beating Obama and is most likely to make the election about Obama's sorry record rather than about himself?

[cripplecreek]

Romney’s claim as a native has worn pretty thin after a few decades of living somewhere else. He takes us for granted and steps over us on his way to the cash register.

Some of us have been saying that major change is coming to Michigan and those who ignore it do so at their own peril. The 2010 GOP wave was bigger here than anywhere else in the nation and the democrats didn’t pick up a single seat above the county level. And now we’ve even got a conservative UAW group testifying on capitol hill against union political funding and they support right to work laws.

[Artcore]

Bad choice of a word on my part. By “gunning” I meant strongly supporting Newt. I need more coffee! ;-)

[Old Retired Army Guy]

Time for Gingrich to pull out and let Santorum go head to head with Romney.

[Old Retired Army Guy]

Paul will never drop out, but it is time for Newt to go.

[HMS Surprise]

Santorum is the lesser of evils. Palin would have been ideal, and probably the only conservative in the field at this point if she would have run. But it is what it is, so let’s hope for President Santorum and Secretary of State Palin, shall we?

[Artcore]

Bad choice of a word on my part. By “gunning” I meant strongly supporting Newt. I need more coffee! ;-)

[ichabod1]

WOW again. There is a lot to like about Rick Santorum. Yes, he’s personally very conservative, but I bet whenever he gets in front of voters they realize he’s no firebreathing, grey bearded, old testament character. The best part is that there is NOTHING WRONG with him. He’s clean. And he speaks his mind. A lot to like.

[Logical me]

Santorum will lose if nominated to King Obama. Mitt will lose also. The only hope we have is Newt Gingrich.

[Strategerist]

Paul and Romney are close friends so I’d suspect his delegates would go to Romney.

As to remaining people who would have voted for Paul in future primaries, hard to tell. A lot wouldn’t vote at all; those who do I think would probably vote Romney.

[ohioWfan]

GO RICK!

[TexasFreeper2009]

It is my firm belief that none of these guys can beat Obama, only the economy can beat Obama.

If the economy gets worse anyone would win agaisnt Obama.

If the economy gets better anyone would lose.

Might as well stick it to Mitten’s !

[Vigilanteman]

See my post #21. The key point is #3.

The libertarian cowboys supporting Gingrich or Ron Paul will be here shortly with their prepared cherry-picked links to focus on the 10% or so that Rick Santorum wasn't a pure conservative during his 14 years in congress.

Easy for them to say since neither of their guys ever won an election outside a safely conservative congressional district, something Santorum managed to do four times.

[Strategerist]

Santorum will lose if nominated to King Obama. Mitt will lose also. The only hope we have is Newt Gingrich.

Whose head-to-head general election matchup numbers have always been much worse than Mitt, and have been much worse than Santorum in the last month.

Other than the "debates will magically save everything" and wishful thinking, what are the credible arguments that Newt wouldn't get destroyed much worse vs. Obama?

[CPT Clay]

He knew that he would play well in Michigan.

[Vigilanteman]

Newt Gingrich has higher national negatives than either Romney or Obama. He would be a real option only if more than half the electorate wasn’t women.

[Broker]

Santorum will have my support in the Georgia primary

[erlayman]

I agree. Jon Huntsman was the only candidate that could have and he didn’t hate Obama enough to have a chance.

[ichabod1]

He’s Clean and Articulate!

[Springman]

Michigan’s in play ping. Now the question is how many Rats want to be put on Republican mailing lists and vote for RuPaul in this “Closed Primary”.