Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Obama poised to win 2012 election with 303 electoral votes: The Signal Forecast
Yahoo News ^ | David Rothschild & Chris Wilson

Posted on 02/16/2012 4:22:12 PM PST by OddLane

With fewer than nine months to go before Election Day, The Signal predicts that Barack Obama will win the presidential contest with 303 electoral votes to the Republican nominee's 235.

How do we know? We don't, of course. Campaigns and candidates evolve, and elections are dynamic events with more variables than can reasonably be distilled in an equation. But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president. This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results of the Electoral College based on past elections, economic indicators, measures of state ideology, presidential approval ratings, incumbency, and a few other politically agnostic factors.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bs; bull; elections; obama

1 posted on 02/16/2012 4:22:24 PM PST by OddLane
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: OddLane

Wishful thinking!


2 posted on 02/16/2012 4:23:50 PM PST by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OddLane

Well, there you go, then.


3 posted on 02/16/2012 4:24:22 PM PST by TonyInOhio (Arm yourselves, and be ye men of valour)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OddLane

I’ll take that bet! Dispirited liberals will flock to Romney as he is one of them. I’ll sit this one out if those are my choices.


4 posted on 02/16/2012 4:25:29 PM PST by gorush (History repeats itself because human nature is static)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: gorush

Nah. There’s not a Liberal alive that will vote for Romney. And if we nominate that idiot, we will wish it is this close.

Santorum 2012


5 posted on 02/16/2012 4:27:34 PM PST by RIghtwardHo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: OddLane

Read the headline when I was at yahoo and checked out the 4000+ responses. Going by them there won’t be any yahoo’s voting for him.


6 posted on 02/16/2012 4:27:59 PM PST by huldah1776
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OddLane
"based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists"

The jokes just write themselves ...

7 posted on 02/16/2012 4:28:08 PM PST by mkjessup (Let's do to Mitt what his Irish Setter did to him while tied to the roof rack of his station wagon!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OddLane

http://www.LivingInThePhilippines.com


8 posted on 02/16/2012 4:30:50 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OddLane

But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president.


9 posted on 02/16/2012 4:33:40 PM PST by COBOL2Java (Mitt Romney is SEVERELY conservative - so severe, it hurts him to be conservative!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: COBOL2Java

And Jimmy Carter was cruising to a second term over Ronald Reagan in the polls at this time of the year by a margin of 60-35.


10 posted on 02/16/2012 4:36:18 PM PST by laconic
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: OddLane

Looks like a very reasonable model to me. The toss up states of VA, OH, PA, and CO will determine it all. Incumbents are very hard to beat and the GOP is deeply divided.


11 posted on 02/16/2012 4:37:43 PM PST by AmusedBystander (The philosophy of the school room in one generation will be the philosophy of government in the next)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: laconic

True, but there are no Reagans running in 2012.


12 posted on 02/16/2012 4:37:48 PM PST by Retired Greyhound (.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: OddLane

""based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists"

The same Yahoo! scientists who came up with a search engine that nobody uses?...

13 posted on 02/16/2012 4:37:48 PM PST by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All

I wonder what a 3 point shift in this chart would do to the ratings?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx


14 posted on 02/16/2012 4:39:06 PM PST by az_gila
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: OddLane

How anyone with half a brain and common sense can predict an election when we do not know yet who is going to be the challenger from the GOP!!! The Lamestream Media is going to use every dirty trick and misleading input to get this “Destroy America” Obama re-elecrted!!! Problem is they have started way too early in concert with the rest of the biased for Obama media.

I will not comment, simply because this revelation is not worthy of comment. What I will say, is that whoever the GOP dude or gal is the one, the POTUS Candidate, we better all get out our butts and everyone like us out to vote for them and against Obama and the entire Democrat Party.

Brace yourselves, folks!!! Anything goes, and....we need to match the enemy blow for blow. IMHO, at the moment, Neither Romney, nor Gingrich have the right stuff. Santorum is the best and conservative, too!!! As I have stated so many times, folks, this race is just getting underway!!! Get ready for the political war that will determine whether the USA survives or dies!!! Because, if you sit on your hands in this one, and Obama wins, you may never cast a free vote again!!! I’m serious!!! The birds of a feather, Hitler & Goebbels go hand and lockstep with Obama & Axelrod!!! God protect America!!!


15 posted on 02/16/2012 4:39:42 PM PST by JLAGRAYFOX (My only objective is defeat and destroy POTUS Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OddLane

Welcome to FR! Two words for you: November 2010.

Sleep tight.


16 posted on 02/16/2012 4:43:30 PM PST by txhurl
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OddLane

They also predict the Dems picking up 40 House seats and 3 Senate seats.


17 posted on 02/16/2012 4:46:09 PM PST by Thunder90 (Fighting for truth and the American way... http://citizensfortruthandtheamericanway.blogspot.com/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OddLane
But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president.

Are these the imbeciles who were able to foresee the Yahoo takeover attempt by Alibaba, a Chinese company, or an attempt to ward off the sale?

Francis
18 posted on 02/16/2012 4:47:33 PM PST by Frank Sheed (This tagline space for rent.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OddLane
the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists

Yahoo scientists who probably believe 100% in man made global warming based on their same prediction engine.

19 posted on 02/16/2012 4:47:34 PM PST by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OddLane

While they’re at it, maybe they’d like to give us the next World Series and Superbowl winners as well.


20 posted on 02/16/2012 5:10:38 PM PST by Will88
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OddLane

That’s why all the democrat candidates are fundraising with him, right? RIGHT?


21 posted on 02/16/2012 5:36:56 PM PST by struggle (http://killthegovernment.wordpress.com/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: laconic

Sorry to say, we don’t have a Reagan


22 posted on 02/16/2012 5:44:11 PM PST by prov1813man (While the one you despise and ridicule works to protect you, those you embrace work to destroy you)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Qbert
That is the funniest part of this article, isn't it?

I don't know why, but I keep picturing a guy who resembles a young Jerry Lewis peering over a bunsen burner.

23 posted on 02/16/2012 5:44:44 PM PST by OddLane (If Lionel Hutz and Guy Smiley had a lovechild together, his name would be "Mitt Romney." -KAJ)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

Freepers!
Come on! Day 47 of the Freepathon and only 44 days until the start of the next. What will you do and where will you go if it goes?

All contributions are for the Current Quarter Expenses.
Click here or mail checks to:

Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794



24 posted on 02/16/2012 6:16:18 PM PST by RedMDer (Forward With Confidence!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson