Posted on 02/16/2012 5:38:08 PM PST by blam
Obama Poised To Win 2012 Election With 303 Electoral Votes: The Signal Forecast
By David Rothschild & Chris Wilson
The Signal
Feburary 16, 2012
With fewer than nine months to go before Election Day, The Signal predicts that Barack Obama will win the presidential contest with 303 electoral votes to the Republican nominee's 235.
How do we know? We don't, of course. Campaigns and candidates evolve, and elections are dynamic events with more variables than can reasonably be distilled in an equation. But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president. This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results of the Electoral College based on past elections, economic indicators, measures of state ideology, presidential approval ratings, incumbency, and a few other politically agnostic factors.
We'll dip into what the model says in a moment, but first a note about models in general: there are a lot of them, from complex equations generated by nerdy academics (like the team at The Signal) to funny coincidences like the Redskins Rule, which holds that the incumbent party keeps the White House if Washington's football team wins its last home game. (This is true in 17 of the last 18 elections!) Every year, some of these models are right and some are wrong, and the difference is often just luck. As a result, models get a bad rap as being very good at predicting the past and lousy at predicting the future.
(snip)
The following chart shows our predictions for each state in the general election, based on this model
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Based On My Model....it says that Jim Robinson will win an unprecedent term as president of the US when most citizens of each state write-in his name on their ballot.
Piece-of-cake.
Now, someone has to go refute this claim, eh?
(The algorithms that are driving my (model) prediction are copyrighted and cannot be revealed.)
Maybe they can use their modeling skills to come up with the one mutual fund that will reliably beat the market every year.
San FRan Chinese restaurant visit today. :-]
I wonder what “The Signal” was forecasting 9 months before the 2010 election.
I don't know about the rest of you but this seems to have been the MSM's mantra coming off the holiday season (which BTW were the best in 4 years).
My model tells me that Obama will only win 16:
NY
NJ
Delaware
Maine
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Vermont
Rhode Island
Maryland
DC
Illinois
California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii
Puerto Rico (should we include this?)
You can’t really fake the gas prices.
"Editors of The Casey Report, Casey Research writes: President Obama promised to turn around the floundering economy that he inherited from his predecessor. He promised jobs. He promised transparency. Not only did he not deliver on those campaign promises, he has led the nation further into the abyss on all counts. Today we are less prosperous, deeper in debt, and enjoy fewer liberties than when Obama first stepped into the Oval Office. His own party is losing faith in the messiah."
"You can see that loss of faith in the steady downward trajectory of Obama's approval ratings. While Democrats can take heart from the fact that no truly viable candidate has emerged from the GOP, it's clear that "Hope and Change" will not be sufficient to rally the electoral troops for Obama again in 2012. Voters are hurting, and Obama's claims that the blame lies with George W. Bush no longer provide any solace."
(Keep saying it, Worse Than Jimmie Carter)
Virginia is a red herring but the GOP will probably take Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and possibly Nevada.
>>You can’t really fake the gas prices.
They can try that “buy by the liter” trick again like they tried in the late 70’s at some gas stations. Obama voters are stupid enough to fall for that.
True, but have you noticed 0bama and the MSM are spinning it as "The economy's improving so of course demand is up so prices are up."
What they leave out is that yeah, the economy is improving, but in India and China.
The U.S. and E.U. .... Not so much.
It is highly doubtful Obama will win Washington and Oregon states. I’m from this region and he is despised.
Yup.
Did you see this today?
Initial Jobless Claims Are Doing Better Than At Any Point During The Reagan Administration
Just going off my gut, if we have a decent nominee (doubtful maybe, but we can dream), then Obama won’t win Virginia or Ohio. That alone changes the total here to R-266 D-272.
Then, we’d just need to pick up a state that Bush won in 2004, like Nebraska, Nevada, Colorado, or New Mexico and it would be over.
All of that depends on who our nominee is, and without knowing that, my predictions are about as valuable as this model, which is not very valuable at all.
He won’t win Wisconsin this year. No way in hell.
You forgot Minnesota. They voted for Mondale in ‘84 man! No way are we picking that up, even against Obama.
And since when does DC count? They aren’t a state, they should have zero electoral votes.
Top will take Wisconsin too. We have voter ID and the dems can’t cheat as a well as before.
tonight I enjoyed a nice dinner with Elvis and he said that mr obama will lose
Nebraska will go solid GOP.
Iowa will too.
It's all over for the rats except for the crying, cheating and recounts.
Yes there is a sort of civil war going on in the GOP but at the end of the day I think most conservatives will vote AB0.
When the dust settles and we have a nominee, people will conclude that
A) No matter who the nominee is (even Mittens), he'll have to face the voters in 2016. That will act as a restraint.
Not so with Zer0. Nothing will keep his Marxist impulses in check
B) We know what an absolute incompetent and dangerous fool 0bama is, Even Jimmy Carter would be a step up.
I have to believe that once we settle on a nominee people will rally around and support him.
RE: It is highly doubtful Obama will win Washington
A state that will vote for a legislature and a Governor that legalizes gay marriage WILL go for Obama. I just hope I’m wrong.
I’m from Chicago. He will still win Illinois, but he is not well-liked even here. The rank & file, blue collar white democrats in the city mostly despise him. The progressive hipsters hate him for not living up to the progressive messiah myth that they bought into and, although they will still vote for him, 99% have taken the Obama bumper stickers off their Priuses (Prii?). These are people who drove around with Gore/Lieberman stickers AND Kerry/Edwards stickers until Bammy’s inauguration. The collar county moderates are hoping Romney gets the nod so they can vote for their golden boy, but they would vote for Palin at this point, and just deny it to their Lib friends.
Democrat voter enthusiasm is low, and so turnout will be low, unless Obama is able to really rally their support between now and November. The only thing we really have to worry about, is nominating a candidate that will drive Republican enthusiasm even lower.
WOW! They’re using MY MODEL. How the He!! am I not getting paid for this?
Basically here’s what these guys are doing (I haven’t read the article so I can’t tell their method but we have the same numbers for IA & FL and I suspect the others as well)
Look at 2004 votes, 2008 votes, determine voter increase/decrease, determine the share of vote the challenger that lost in 2008 needs to realistically claim in 2012. Compares to primary votes also.
I uploaded IA a while back before the IA caucus and predicted the following result:
GOP Nominee 739,990 48.31%
Obama 791,813 51.69%
Here’s the Google doc (the one people complained about the color coding back in December. Numbers were on the 2nd tab)
for Obama and Republican Nominee
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhY4oeNgAv_ldHVzeWN0RVNQbVozbnZ4dEYtTGZPMFE
I also did one of these models for FL. It had
GOP Nominee 4,734,395 /51.44%
Obama 4,469,730 /48.56%
Attachment here: (results on 2nd tab scroll down to the 100% part where it says Obama and Republican)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhY4oeNgAv_ldEdLR00wUEhTV2xrMjFvRy1ieGhLVmc
How do I get a job doing this stuff?
I have one for SC, I’ll have to add the numbers up and see if I got those percentages too.
How does odds of Obama winning go from 38 % in Fl to 52 % in Virginia and nothing in between?
that is a 14 point spread.....the model is complete BS....
Plus I don’t think Obama is going to win VA,OH.or PA
Another outstanding model.
Since 1960... 23rd Amendment
“Section 1. The District constituting the seat of Government of the United States shall appoint in such manner as the Congress may direct:
A number of electors of President and Vice President equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives in Congress to which the District would be entitled if it were a State, but in no event more than the least populous State; they shall be in addition to those appointed by the States, but they shall be considered, for the purposes of the election of President and Vice President, to be electors appointed by a State; and they shall meet in the District and perform such duties as provided by the twelfth article of amendment.”
Price it by the quart. That way gas will be under a $1. Hey, these kinds of number tricks work with employment, why not gas prices. Too many people unemployed; no they're not in the labor market. Gas too high; price it in quarts, ounces, or whatever measure to get the number down.
It is hard to beat the MSM and money.
There will be a referendum about homosexual marriage in the State of Washington. Guaranteed.
The majority of voters here are against it and the referendum will prevail in having that legislation eliminated. Seattle, Tacoma, Vanocuver are heavily liberal; the rest of the state, no.
The New Black ACORN Election Fraud Enforcers
If you ever create a ping list, please include me. I find it interesting that even this lib wishful thinking scenario the GOP picks up Fla, NC, and Mo. How do you score it?
Stupid amendment....!
Although a lot can go wrong, I think that predicting Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana for Obama is suspect. Plus, this scenario has Pennsylvania going for Obama when we don’t yet know how Rick Santorum will figure into the mix.
The good news. We have 9 months to stop Bacrock.
Only one state conceded to the GOP is within that margin (Florida).
I live in the great state of VA...
and the last two elections, we went CONSERVATIVE big time...
so I always look to see how they “predict” VA will go...
and they always give O’bummer the edge...
ain’t gunna happen this time!
Since polls have been wrong by up to 25% with two weeks remaining we may as well just give up.
Pray for Anmerica
I’ll challenge the WA vote - Gregoire had to cheat to win re-election...
and the IL vote - isn’t Kirk from IL? If he is, that puts IL in the “maybe” column.
I’m not an analyst but throw this out for discussion...
We have FL, NC, and MO
IA is a tough sell because between 2004-2012, the GOP voters are leaving for jobs elsewhere. There’s not as many votes in the West or around the Central part to offset the East. In terms of our GOP candidates, Santorum is probably the strongest in that state, it’s just a matter of whether there are enough voters or not.
NC is an easy pick up for the GOP. McCain ran several points behind Bush in traditional conservative areas as well as the suburbs and he still lost by only 17,000. All the GOP nominee has to do is improve on the 08 numbers in the reliable red areas OR run better in the suburbs. If they do both, NC is a 5%+ win. Plus it doesn’t hurt that Bev Perdue has screwed the NC Dem Party there. If it wasn’t for the DNC in Charlotte, they would be ceding NC without much play.
MO is still GOP. There’s still enough voters to offset the liberal areas in KC/STL/Boone. Senate race also helps.
As you can tell from the model they have, OH and VA are by no means safe for Obama. They’re going off all the swing voters from Loudon County and the outer Nova burbs won’t be near as strong this time. Not a VA that had the GOP sweep in 2010. Obama’s in big trouble here.
OH is always a toss-up. I have no idea.
FL is interesting. One of the few areas McCain actually improved on quite significantly over Bush was in the Panhandle. Obama actually only ran about 1% better than Kerry in the blue areas. Obama won FL by almost breaking even in Jacksonville, and performing strongly along the I-4 corridor and evening things in SW FL. Interestingly, these are the areas Romney won pretty handedly in the FL primary. Easiest assumption is that everyone expects a Rubio or West to be on the ticket and the fact the GOP convention is in Tampa. FL leans slight GOP and probably will continue to do so right up to Election day.
Someone just mentioned flipping those two states makes it 266-272. That’s correct and what most people see. It’s finding that last state that’s difficult. The Romney people want to target NH. The Santorum people want to target the Midwest (PA, MI, WI, IA, and CO). Not exactly sure what state the Gingrich people are looking at. That’s the challenge for 2012, finding the last state.
Which is why Rubio is considered the heavy favorite for VP. He plays in FL and the SW. Santorum/Rubio would be pretty formidable, putting all the battlegrounds in play with Union and Hispanic voters except maybe NH.
In either case, it will be close (unless our guy starts winning all the battlegrounds). Because I’ve looked at the demographics and know where the voters are, I cringe when I here people on here say “so and so can’t win” or “Obama will win in a landslide”.
Being in NJ here, I hope you are right. It is uplifting hearing that some traditional democrat-voting states aren't going to drink the Kool-Aide this year. We simply can't afford another four years of Obamanomics.
That was almost 30 uears ago. The democrats have caused a lot of damage since then. Keep the hope up...
True, but it is also true that you can only fool some of the people some of the time...
The longer the media continues it’s charade, and the more shamelessly they present a skewed version of reality that is favorable to the libs, the more they stretch their credibility. They could slowly heat the frog in the pot for decades, but in order to prop up Obama they are having to turn the heat up dangerously close to the boiling point.
Even assuming their information is pretty accurate, the Republicans would only need to win the 3 states where Obama's margin is narrowest--Virginia, Ohio, and New Hampshire--to get to 270 electoral votes and win the election.
They made up for it by voting against him for Senator later.
Obama may only win a ride involving some tar and feathers IMO.
Obama loses VA & OH giving GOP 266 EV. Then we need 4 more votes NV would do it but I think we’ll get WI and maybe PA too if Santorum is the nominee.
Someone (H.L.Mencken, I think) once said “Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public”.
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